BTC seasonality just got humbled

[sergiorus]

August has been by far the worst month for BTC by median return. Yet, for the first time since 2017 we are observing a price increase reaching more than 23% (as of today).

There's still about 1.5 days until the month ends but I think it's safe to say the seasonality just got humbled by having the largest monthly gain in 20 months on historically the worst month by median return.






Source: https://www.coinglass.com/today

[Zaguru12]

August has been by far the worst month for BTC by median return. Yet, for the first time since 2017 we are observing a price increase reaching more than 23% (as of today).

There's still about 1.5 days until the month ends but I think it's safe to say the seasonality just got humbled by having the largest monthly gain in 20 months on historically the worst month by median return.

The thing is that the market is always dynamic, bitcoin following the four year cycle doesn’t mean that each month of the year would have identical growth or returns, this year’s august return is just similar to what happened to the month of October last year when it ended in bearish colors which predominantly doesn’t happens, I wouldn’t call this to be the market getting humbled rather it’s just the bitcoin market been u predictable as usual.

I am actually looking at what the year will end with to see how the market has changed for this year. Usually in bearish years in the past like 2014, 2018 and 2022, the market has ended in at least 8 months of bearish conditions if we want to take that into consideration then the remain four month of this year must end in bearish sentiment. This doesn’t looks realistic to me but we would see how it comes

[stompix]

History repeats itself....till it doesn't!
And every time it repeats itself, we have a crowd saying wow, it has again and the moment it stops, wow, what happend , something is going on...  when in reality it's nothing.

Back in 2020 we had the reversed months, in 2025 we bled in the 3 months that were the best for Bitcoin till date, but people keep on trying to find patterns in this, no way it's going to be that easy when in one February you have a war breaking out, and in another nothing, on in one year you have half of the world quarantined.

Also, pretty easy to have a record month when you had one of the thrid worst half year in the history of BTC.

[Pandu Geddon]

There's still about 1.5 days until the month ends but I think it's safe to say the seasonality just got humbled by having the largest monthly gain in 20 months on historically the worst month by median return.

We also saw a decline in October last year, which usually becomes a good month. The decline that occurred even continued into the beginning of this year. The increase that happened this month is quite reasonable, although if we compare it in a monthly pattern, the increase is quite high. But let's look at the next month, which is the closing of the third quarter of this year. Many people might be anticipating something positive at the end of the year.

[sergiorus]

There's still about 1.5 days until the month ends but I think it's safe to say the seasonality just got humbled by having the largest monthly gain in 20 months on historically the worst month by median return.

We also saw a decline in October last year, which usually becomes a good month. The decline that occurred even continued into the beginning of this year. The increase that happened this month is quite reasonable, although if we compare it in a monthly pattern, the increase is quite high. But let's look at the next month, which is the closing of the third quarter of this year. Many people might be anticipating something positive at the end of the year.

That's a good point, but last October was indeed on track to be a very good month..... until the 10th day.

Then the whole industry got broken in a span of a few hours and we still don't know what actually happened (we probably never will, they won't let us know it).

That's being said, it was an outlier of historical scale.

[crwth]

Looking at the bigger picture, I still see that one of the influential and impactful things that happened is the ETFs. It has probably caused a lot of inflows towards BTC and some of the money that wasn't exposed before is now coming into BTC.
^{(This could be confirmed by checking some daily metrics of the different ETFs)}

Plus, aren't we on the post-halving season? Maybe it has an effect as well.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

Looking at the bigger picture, I still see that one of the influential and impactful things that happened is the ETFs. It has probably caused a lot of inflows towards BTC and some of the money that wasn't exposed before is now coming into BTC.
^{(This could be confirmed by checking some daily metrics of the different ETFs)}

It was the first time as well that we have seen a pre-halving all time high if my memory serves me right.

So there are a lot of changes already since that time and it looks like a new pattern has emerges. And who knows, there are proponents of super-cycle and so with that as what they prediction, maybe at the end of this year we might see a new all time high again.

And if that happens, past historical logs might not be a good indication for future predictions.

[Moreno233]

Prior to this time, I was having the opinion that Bitcoin was going to go one leg down to create the low of the cycle as we entered August, a month known for corrections. I was surprised to see the changes you have noted in this post and the reason for such shift may not be far from the US debt situation and also the entry of so many institutional investors. We might just be getting set for more surprises from Bitcoin as we have seen a little shift in the 4  years cycle as well as the seasonality.

[OgNasty]

This is the sort of post you see right before the bottom falls out of the market. I don’t think people are humbled by a small short term move. Especially when it could very well be a bull trap. Still too early to say. I don’t think the price will be higher a month from now, but I do think we are in the buying season, so DCA is still the move.

[Zoomic]

Sometimes we tend to forget that historical seasonality is not a rule, it's just a reference that's not guaranteed.

August like you rightly said has always been a difficult month for Bitcoin, but the market this month didn't care about that pattern.

When you look at the market now, you'll agree with me that it's different from what we used to see, there are too many factors currently influencing price especially ETFs and institutional presence so I'll also be surprised if we in the next few months, the market behave differently from what history charts suggests.

[Cheema02]

Sometimes we tend to forget that historical seasonality is not a rule, it's just a reference that's not guaranteed.

August like you rightly said has always been a difficult month for Bitcoin, but the market this month didn't care about that pattern.

When you look at the market now, you'll agree with me that it's different from what we used to see, there are too many factors currently influencing price especially ETFs and institutional presence so I'll also be surprised if we in the next few months, the market behave differently from what history charts suggests.

I totally agree with that. Months and their historical data shouldn't matter, what matters is what's happening in the market or around it, and cycles aren't actually based on months or dates, which means that seasons can change over time, and that's what makes it tricky, because if there were very clear patterns then I believe most of us would have been making so much money, because then we would plan our trades and investments accordingly, but that's not how things work, there can be changes, especially in such an unpredictable market.

And, for a matter of fact, I don't even think or believe that August is historically the worst month for Bitcoin, because if you look at September, you will notice that there has been no year in which the price of Bitcoin went above 10% in growth in the month of Septermber, which I think is worst than August where we have seen multiple 10%+ months throughout the history, one even above 60%+. So if the patterns are changing, and September has been a green month for the last few years, we might be able to see some red coming up.

[aoluain]

It would be absolutely hilarious if there happened to be a massive flash crash on Monday
(the last day of the month!) I know - highly improbable.

Anyway, August has been predominantly Red over the years but there has been 5 Green
years, and it's going to turn out to be 6!

I wonder does anyone actually base their trades for example on this particular historical
data?

[Proty]

This is to show that bitcoin doesn't always follow the same pattern as most people do thinks. The fact that there  hasn't been a price increase in August in the past doesn't mean that it is bound not to happen in the future and this is  just  mere speculation based on past market history. It doesn't truly reflect how bitcoin will perform in all august in the future. However if the market end with the recent then it has broken the past August bitcoin price movement.

[Jewan420]

I don't see any particular difference this year, the months of this year are not much similar to the months of previous years. On the contrary, I see the opposite, while October in other years was marked with red ink, this year it is green. Even May and June were completely different, April is trying to follow the chart a little bit.

According to the chart, the upcoming September is supposed to be marked with red ink, we cannot tell how the month will turn out before the end of the month. My personal guess is that September will be different like October. Maybe we will see a price recovery or pump next month too, there is doubt about the extent of the recovery.

[Moreno233]

It would be absolutely hilarious if there happened to be a massive flash crash on Monday
(the last day of the month!) I know - highly improbable.

Anyway, August has been predominantly Red over the years but there has been 5 Green
years, and it's going to turn out to be 6!

I wonder does anyone actually base their trades for example on this particular historical
data?

Some times in the past, I have used such information for my investimg. Since I knew that there is always big correction within August, I do most f my aggressive accumulation to take advantage of buying at lower prices. This method did not work this year because Bitcoin oumped so hard in August instead of dumping to give me good entries. Those that are doing position trading would have also achieved a lot using same method, buy in Augist and hold for few months before selling. 

[Franctoshi]

August has been by far the worst month for BTC by median return. Yet, for the first time since 2017 we are observing a price increase reaching more than 23% (as of today).

There's still about 1.5 days until the month ends but I think it's safe to say the seasonality just got humbled by having the largest monthly gain in 20 months on historically the worst month by median return.

The thing is that the market is always dynamic, bitcoin following the four year cycle doesn’t mean that each month of the year would have identical growth or returns, this year’s august return is just similar to what happened to the month of October last year when it ended in bearish colors which predominantly doesn’t happens, I wouldn’t call this to be the market getting humbled rather it’s just the bitcoin market been u predictable as usual.

I am actually looking at what the year will end with to see how the market has changed for this year. Usually in bearish years in the past like 2014, 2018 and 2022, the market has ended in at least 8 months of bearish conditions if we want to take that into consideration then the remain four month of this year must end in bearish sentiment. This doesn’t looks realistic to me but we would see how it comes

Exactly, we have to accept the changing market dynamics. We used to have ATH's after each Bitcoin halving, but what happened this cycle that's close to its end did surprise many investors in the space, and we can expect even more in the future because if the market follows the same pattern each year, cycle or season, at some point everyone will tend to do the same thing. All this twists the market give us makes the Bitcoin more unpredictable and a more interesting one.

[Asiska02]

August has been by far the worst month for BTC by median return. Yet, for the first time since 2017 we are observing a price increase reaching more than 23% (as of today).

There's still about 1.5 days until the month ends but I think it's safe to say the seasonality just got humbled by having the largest monthly gain in 20 months on historically the worst month by median return.

Source: https://www.coinglass.com/today

The seasonality of bitcoin has changed for a while now, since before Bitcoin reaching a new all time high without halving event taking place. The market is showing us that it is very much unpredictable and it will continue to work in this manner. The changes we are seeing in the market now doesn’t mean that the Bitcoin overall consensus has changed, but the little variance is actually showing how dynamic the market is and we should learn to accept it in that manner. By next year August, we may see it underperforming or even outperforming what we’ve experienced this year. This is how the bitcoin market transgress and we should be ready for a change at anytime.

[Amphenomenon]

History repeats itself....till it doesn't!

Yesss especially with bitcoin. I can still recall some number of times when Bitcoin gives the shocker favorable or not it wasn't. We expect to find a way to benefit or rely on it.

This consciousness helps to hold on to the long term view of bitcoin and bringing to the notice taht every of our analysis are just market speculation.

[AVE5]

We also saw a decline in October last year, which usually becomes a good month. The decline that occurred even continued into the beginning of this year.
The increase that happened this month is quite reasonable, although if we compare it in a monthly pattern, the increase is quite high. But let's look at the next month, which is the closing of the third quarter of this year. Many people might be anticipating something positive at the end of the year.

I don't believe in the monthly pattern ever even if it has some extent repeated itself. I'll always take that for coincidence just as the market pattern is being interwoven with the 4 year's cycle.
It's of no doubt that there's possibilities for the 4 year's cycle events to be breached and outcomes different patterns we haven't seen before.
This is a matter of volatility that can't be predictable while the inflows of the Etf can also manipulate the patterns we think to have been traditional in the digital market.

[batang_bitcoin]

There's still about 1.5 days until the month ends but I think it's safe to say the seasonality just got humbled by having the largest monthly gain in 20 months on historically the worst month by median return.

A typical ghost month that is down at most times. But, it is humbled and there's a change on it. Others are too excited to say we're already in the bull run then and this breaks the cycle for the bearish. Not yet so far because IMO we're still going to take a couple of months and see how it ends. Though the focus is for August, we all agree that OP is right that 1 day remaining and the gains were there and unexpectedly that the pump happened.