BTC price will probably never exceed its 2021 and 2024/2025 level in real terms

[JaanusRaim]

I bet the probability that BTC price exceeds its 2021 and 2024/2025 ATH level in real terms is very small because it was/is due to the rare coincidence of two factors:
1)BTC extremely high reputation relative to other cryptocurrencies "The first, the only, the unique" and 2)very strong stock markets: AI boom that is similar to dot com boom with extremely high P/E ratios (stock market has a strong correlation with BTC price).

BTC ATH real price level equals 30-40 oz of gold, a small 1-room flat in my home town Tallinn or 4 years (average) salary.

[Oshosondy]

What kind of post is this?

Bitcoin will not exceed its 2021 and 2024/2025 level in real terms. What do you mean with this?

Bitcoin is over 2021 all time high right now.

Also bitcoin will exceed it 2025 all time high later. We are not yet in the time, but the time is coming.

[JaanusRaim]

What kind of post is this?

Bitcoin will not exceed its 2021 and 2024/2025 level in real terms. What do you mean with this?

Bitcoin is over 2021 all time high right now.

Also bitcoin will exceed it 2025 all time high later. We are not yet in the time, but the time is coming.

I am interested in Bitcoin price level in real (not nominal) terms.

In 2021 BTC price hit 35 oz of gold (now 18 oz of gold). I use gold here because there is no good worldwide index for other important goods, assets and resources like real estate or work force.
Look at https://www.longtermtrends.com/bitcoin-vs-gold/

[Bd officer]

Did you look at the price chart? Or do you know what the ATH is in 2021?

I don't think you have any idea about all this. The price of Bitcoin has nothing to do with the price of your flat or gold.

Basically, the price of Bitcoin will definitely break or exceed the previous ATH but we will have to wait until the next bull run to see it.

[Odohu]

What kind of post is this?

Bitcoin will not exceed its 2021 and 2024/2025 level in real terms. What do you mean with this?

Bitcoin is over 2021 all time high right now.

Also bitcoin will exceed it 2025 all time high later. We are not yet in the time, but the time is coming.

I think he is confused and need correction. What I feel he is saying is that Bitcoin is not going to make that rise again -the range from the low to the peak of those years. If you check in terms of percentage increase from the low to the peak of those years, Bitcoin rose with high percentages which is not looking easy to beat any time soon. This is what I think the OP is referring to but lacks the words to put it the right way.

[Oshosondy]

In 2021 BTC price hit 35 oz of gold (now 18 oz of gold). I use gold here because there is no good worldwide index for other important goods, assets and resources like real estate or work force.
Look at https://www.longtermtrends.com/bitcoin-vs-gold/

Using gold for the estimation is not right at all.

For easy and clearer estimate, you can use dollar, euro, pounds or the fiat that people are spending in your country for the estimation. Gold increase significantly since 2022 to 2025. It is not a fair estimate at all.

I think he is confused and need correction. What I feel he is saying is that Bitcoin is not going to make that rise again -the range from the low to the peak of those years. If you check in terms of percentage increase from the low to the peak of those years, Bitcoin rose with high percentages which is not looking easy to beat any time soon. This is what I think the OP is referring to but lacks the words to put it the right way.

Yes, but he is not putting it right.

[JaanusRaim]

In 2021 BTC price hit 35 oz of gold (now 18 oz of gold). I use gold here because there is no good worldwide index for other important goods, assets and resources like real estate or work force.
Look at https://www.longtermtrends.com/bitcoin-vs-gold/

Using gold for the estimation is not right at all.

For easy and clearer estimate, you can use dollar, euro, pounds or the fiat that people are spending in your country for the estimation. Gold increase significantly since 2022 to 2025. It is not a fair estimate at all.

I think he is confused and need correction. What I feel he is saying is that Bitcoin is not going to make that rise again -the range from the low to the peak of those years. If you check in terms of percentage increase from the low to the peak of those years, Bitcoin rose with high percentages which is not looking easy to beat any time soon. This is what I think the OP is referring to but lacks the words to put it the right way.

Yes, but he is not putting it right.

Gold has traditionally (centuries) been one indicator of real value - but of cause not the only one. Unfortunately there is no such clear world-wide index for other important goods, assets, resources but it is intuitively clear that 1 BTC can not buy so much today as in 2021 peaks.

[Donneski]

We've not even reached the last quarter of the first year of the 2026-30 cycle, and you're already concluding that Bitcoin won't beat the 2021-25 cycle ATH in real terms? Don't you think you're drawing a pretty big conclusion already?

Yes, I understand your point of trying to view BTC in real terms instead of just USD however, you still need to understand that there are a little above three more years left in the current cycle. A lot of things can still happen in the market that'll make Bitcoin higher than you can ever imagine. You can't be too certain this early mate.

[Pandu Geddon]

Gold has traditionally (centuries) been one indicator of real value - but of cause not the only one. Unfortunately there is no such clear world-wide index for other important goods, assets, resources but it is intuitively clear that 1 BTC can not buy so much today as in 2021 peaks.

In 2021, gold did not have much price growth, even until the end of 2023. Starting in 2024, gold has shown a significant price increase. You certainly know that the volatility of the gold market is different from Bitcoin. Both are types of assets that must be treated differently. If you compare purchasing power at a certain time only, the situation is certainly different. We do not know what will happen with the next new ATH of Bitcoin. In the future, you may encounter a different situation.

[Frankolala]

What kind of post is this?

Bitcoin will not exceed its 2021 and 2024/2025 level in real terms. What do you mean with this?

Bitcoin is over 2021 all time high right now.

Also bitcoin will exceed it 2025 all time high later. We are not yet in the time, but the time is coming.

I think he is confused and need correction. What I feel he is saying is that Bitcoin is not going to make that rise again -the range from the low to the peak of those years. If you check in terms of percentage increase from the low to the peak of those years, Bitcoin rose with high percentages which is not looking easy to beat any time soon. This is what I think the OP is referring to but lacks the words to put it the right way.

I get your. Bitcoin volatility reduces overtime making it impossible for bitcoin to increase with such high percentage that it did in the past. I'm not after the percentage, what I'm after is that Bitcoin will make a new ATH in the upcoming bull run. OP, should know how to express himself for people to understand his message.

[JaanusRaim]

Gold has traditionally (centuries) been one indicator of real value - but of cause not the only one. Unfortunately there is no such clear world-wide index for other important goods, assets, resources but it is intuitively clear that 1 BTC can not buy so much today as in 2021 peaks.

In 2021, gold did not have much price growth, even until the end of 2023. Starting in 2024, gold has shown a significant price increase. You certainly know that the volatility of the gold market is different from Bitcoin. Both are types of assets that must be treated differently. If you compare purchasing power at a certain time only, the situation is certainly different. We do not know what will happen with the next new ATH of Bitcoin. In the future, you may encounter a different situation.

Of cause, future is basically unknown. But there are some indicators (for example the abovementioned coincidence of BTC top notch reputation and stock markets high) that help to reduce uncertainty and make some predictions that are not fully arbitrary.


As I said, gold is just one example. If we look other examples (for example real estate) the picture is not fully different.

[Ndabagi01]

I am interested in Bitcoin price level in real (not nominal) terms.

In 2021 BTC price hit 35 oz of gold (now 18 oz of gold). I use gold here because there is no good worldwide index for other important goods, assets and resources like real estate or work force.
Look at https://www.longtermtrends.com/bitcoin-vs-gold/

Using gold to compare to the price of bitcoin will only get people confused the more just like the way I am also confused by your comparison. Dollar is what is mostly used to compare to the price of bitcoin in terms of value and this also gives easy conversion to the percentage estimate. Not everyone will get this comparison as we don’t use gold to compare to bitcoin in price. Fiat is what is used to compare to the price of gold and also to the price of bitcoin. Recently, Bitcoin has also being viewed as a currency that will stand as an assets when it comes to real  long term assets of investment to reckon on alongside gold and real estate investments.

[aoluain]

I bet the probability that BTC price exceeds its 2021 and 2024/2025 ATH level in real terms is very small because it was/is due to the rare coincidence of two factors:
1)BTC extremely high reputation relative to other cryptocurrencies "The first, the only, the unique" and 2)very strong stock markets: AI boom that is similar to dot com boom with extremely high P/E ratios (stock market has a strong correlation with BTC price).

BTC ATH real price level equals 30-40 oz of gold, a small 1-room flat in my home town Tallinn or 4 years (average) salary.

So in pricing terms you are using FIAT.

How much it costs to rent a property, the FIAT value of Gold, etc. etc.

At Bitcoins last ATH on the 14th of August 2025 @ $124,128.00 which would have bought
37.12 troy ounces of Gold @ $3335.06 per toz.

Lets fast forward to the next ATH which will exceed the last one there is a damn good chance
that the Bitcoin market will have outpaced the rise of Gold. . . and everything else. And your
rental cost will certainly have increased also or at best stayed as it is. That all correlates to us
being able to buy more Gold at the next ATH than at the last ATH for BTC1. Thats the probability
which everyone is fairly certain of.


So the your probability is just not going to stack up

[JaanusRaim]

I bet the probability that BTC price exceeds its 2021 and 2024/2025 ATH level in real terms is very small because it was/is due to the rare coincidence of two factors:
1)BTC extremely high reputation relative to other cryptocurrencies "The first, the only, the unique" and 2)very strong stock markets: AI boom that is similar to dot com boom with extremely high P/E ratios (stock market has a strong correlation with BTC price).

BTC ATH real price level equals 30-40 oz of gold, a small 1-room flat in my home town Tallinn or 4 years (average) salary.

So in pricing terms you are using FIAT.

How much it costs to rent a property, the FIAT value of Gold, etc. etc.

At Bitcoins last ATH on the 14th of August 2025 @ $124,128.00 which would have bought
37.12 troy ounces of Gold @ $3335.06 per toz.

Lets fast forward to the next ATH which will exceed the last one there is a damn good chance
that the Bitcoin market will have outpaced the rise of Gold. . . and everything else. And your
rental cost will certainly have increased also or at best stayed as it is. That all correlates to us
being able to buy more Gold at the next ATH than at the last ATH for BTC1. Thats the probability
which everyone is fairly certain of.


So the your probability is just not going to stack up

It is possible that BTC price will go to $124128 or even a bit higher but it is improbable that it significantly exceeds its previous ATH in real terms.

1)I think that it is suitable to express BTC reputation relative to altcoins with the BTC/LTC (Crypto gold/crypto silver) ratio that is now ca 400. Is it possible that this ratio grows even more (for example to 1000) ? Yes, but its probability is very small.
2)The P/E ratio of Standard and Poor 500 stocks is now ca 30. Is it possible that this ratio grows even more (for example to 50) ? Yes, but its probability is very small.
If we put two very small probabilities together, we will get even much smaller probability - the probability that one BTC will equal 100 oz of gold, 10 years average salary or a small house in Tallinn some day.

[BitMaxz]

Why compare it to gold? They are totally different assets. I think the OP do not know the history of Bitcoin, how it keeps exceeding or reaching new ATHs every 4 years and after block halving.

@OP I think you better check the wiki about the history value of BTC from here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_bitcoin#Prices_and_value_history

As you can notice, every 4 years after block halving it always exceeds the previous all-time high because the BTC price depends on the demand and supply.
Don't use gold as the price of BTC since the value of BTC remains in fiat; we don't even have a gold/BTC pair. Why would you use gold to determine how it exceeds the previous price?

[yudi09]

Examining historical price data is important to understand the price levels Bitcoin has previously reached.
For instance, where was the 2021 high, and what are the projected levels for 2024 and 2025?
This post is clearly incomprehensible to the reader; despite repeated attempts to decipher your meaning, the point remains unclear.
If you want to compare Bitcoin's price milestones with gold, look at gold's all-time high and the time it took to reach that peak.
Don't overcomplicate things for yourself.

[As-Soon-As]

I don't understand how you created the topic, do you want to stop the price of Bitcoin from increasing?
The price of Bitcoin was $69k in 2021 and exceeded it in 2025 and touched $126k. This is quite good and has made fresh investors more confident, in the future the price of Bitcoin will increase more, that is, in 2029 the price of Bitcoin will touch an all-time high. That is why we should enter Bitcoin investment, we can only be a part of the benefits of touching a high level of Bitcoin price through Bitcoin investment. This is coming in the future and it will be realized, so we should be patient.

[Female King]

What kind of post is this?

Bitcoin will not exceed its 2021 and 2024/2025 level in real terms. What do you mean with this?

Bitcoin is over 2021 all time high right now.

Also bitcoin will exceed it 2025 all time high later. We are not yet in the time, but the time is coming.

For me i don't also understand what the op mean by his post, the current price of bitcoin now has already surpass what we have as the ATH in year 2021, in the year 2021 the ATH then was around $69k to $70k if am not mistaken and now the price of bitcoin is $78k which has increased more than what we have then as the all time high in 2021, i also believe that with time the price of bitcoin will also go above what it was as it ATH in 2024 and 2025.

[decodx]

For me i don't also understand what the op mean by his post, the current price of bitcoin now has already surpass what we have as the ATH in year 2021, in the year 2021 the ATH then was around $69k to $70k if am not mistaken and now the price of bitcoin is $78k which has increased more than what we have then as the all time high in 2021, i also believe that with time the price of bitcoin will also go above what it was as it ATH in 2024 and 2025.

I think he means "real value" - the face value adjusted for inflation. I.e., what it can purchase on a comparable level.

The $78k today cannot even buy the amount of gold, real estate, or even the same basket of grocery items it could with $69k in 2021 because fiat currency has been heavily inflated since then. So although it was a break of the nominal dollar high, from the aspect of real power purchasing of harder assets it wasn't.

That all said comparing the value of any asset against the single best-and-worst time (only) of historic manic blow off topping is just as flawed a comparison. Bitcoin's real purchasing power has been parabolic upward. He compares the price of Bitcoin to gold, but gold itself isn't a fixed, immutable store of value over shorter time horizons either. Gold is not immune to price fluctuations, especially when taking into account that an increased price undoubtedly leads to higher global mining output, which brings more physical gold supply onto the market over time.

[philipma1957]

So @ op make a chart


2013 the best gold,to btc was blank
2015 the best gold to btc was blank
2017 the best gold to btc was blank
2019 the best gold to btc was blank
2021 the best gold to btc was blank
2023 the best gold to btc was blank
2025 the best gold to btc was blank

I think people would understand your belief is btc will never exceed 1 btc = 40oz.

Maybe or maybe gold supply moonshots due to robots mining on the moon

And for every oz we think we have there is 5 ounces on the moon