BTC price will probably never exceed its 2021 and 2024/2025 level in real terms

[obuoma]

I think he means "real value" - the face value adjusted for inflation. I.e., what it can purchase on a comparable level.

The $78k today cannot even buy the amount of gold, real estate, or even the same basket of grocery items it could with $69k in 2021 because fiat currency has been heavily inflated since then. So although it was a break of the nominal dollar high, from the aspect of real power purchasing of harder assets it wasn't.

That all said comparing the value of any asset against the single best-and-worst time (only) of historic manic blow off topping is just as flawed a comparison. Bitcoin's real purchasing power has been parabolic upward. He compares the price of Bitcoin to gold, but gold itself isn't a fixed, immutable store of value over shorter time horizons either. Gold is not immune to price fluctuations, especially when taking into account that an increased price undoubtedly leads to higher global mining output, which brings more physical gold supply onto the market over time.

You logic is also suggesting that inflation is affecting Bitcoin because what you have described here is exactly what inflation does. If we look at that logic now, then the statement is correct but should Bitcoin enter into bull run that make it new $1 million per Bitcoin, irrespective of the inflation that we might have experience, Bitcoin will worth more than it ever did in the past. If this happens in the next cycle, inflation would have gotten so bad that Bitcoin will not be worth more.

[fredericktaylor]

I bet the probability that BTC price exceeds its 2021 and 2024/2025 ATH level in real terms is very small because it was/is due to the rare coincidence of two factors:
1)BTC extremely high reputation relative to other cryptocurrencies "The first, the only, the unique" and 2)very strong stock markets: AI boom that is similar to dot com boom with extremely high P/E ratios (stock market has a strong correlation with BTC price).

BTC ATH real price level equals 30-40 oz of gold, a small 1-room flat in my home town Tallinn or 4 years (average) salary.

It's not entirely clear what you mean, it seems like you're trying to highlight the price increase from 2021 to 2025.

Bitcoin price was $69,000 at the end of 2021 and $126,000 in 2025, which was the maximum Bitcoin price ever. In 2025, Bitcoin price reached $126,000, but in the future we will see Bitcoin price reach an all-time ATH, which will increase the value much more than the ATH of 2025, but this whole process needs a long time. It is better to buy Bitcoin with confidence and patience and hold it for a long time, which will help the investor to profit from Bitcoin in the long term.

[DPHOR]

Bitcoin can only follow the sequential order of the previous market but currently there are higher chances of the price to increase above the said mentioned years you outlined above.
Of course, you are seeing the price from a lower scope which I think you do not really understand how Bitcoin works, because if you do you wouldn't consider to make this type of post you made here.
Bitcoin is the most focused asset than altcoin, and even though people are more trying to diversify their investments they wouldn't put much priority to altcoin than Bitcoin and of course the price is influential to altcoin as when Bitcoin increases that is when it would reflect to any other altcoin out there.

[Accardo]

Bitcoin is the most focused asset than altcoin, and even though people are more trying to diversify their investments they wouldn't put much priority to altcoin than Bitcoin and of course the price is influential to altcoin as when Bitcoin increases that is when it would reflect to any other altcoin out there.

Multiple altcoins like eth didn't boost alongside Bitcoin in the last bullish run, there was no altseason when Bitcoin did $120k+, the price was bullish enough to make a strong impact on several other altcoins. After the last year's bullish encounter had no propper increase in the price of little projects, it was clearer to assume that communities surrounding an altcoin project appears more structural to the price increase of the asset, much better than growing on the shifting price of Bitcoin.

[laspol65]

Bitcoin price is increasing gradually, no matter how much you speculate about Bitcoin audience and donors, it is natural that Bitcoin price will increase in the future. Because we have seen from the past that Bitcoin price has been increasing as usual and after each halving, Bitcoin price improves the most and creates records at the highest price.
Compared to 2021, 2025 has shown signs of increasing the most Bitcoin price, so 2021 will see more Bitcoin price increase in 2029 compared to 2025.

[Odusko]

Bitcoin is more focused than altcoin, and even though people are trying more to diversify their investments, they wouldn't put much priority to altcoin than Bitcoin and of course the price is influential to altcoin as when Bitcoin increases that is when it would reflect to any other altcoin out there.

Multiple altcoins like eth didn't boost alongside Bitcoin in the last bullish run, there was no altseason when Bitcoin did $120k+, the price was bullish enough to make a strong impact on several other altcoins. After the last year's bullish encounter had no propper increase in the price of little projects, it was clearer to assume that communities surrounding an altcoin project appears more structural to the price increase of the asset, much better than growing with the shifting price of Bitcoin.

Altcoins have been seen to be a make profits quick in crypto that is no longer available with Bitcoin, so many investors that take altcoins as diversify option tend to expect to get the profits their did not get from Bitcoin, but in reality, Bitcoin gives profits but only on a long term basis and not like any pump and dump profits that accompanied a lot of those altcoins which market will only pump once and dump without any structural growth afterwards.

[Pumpsta]

I bet the probability that BTC price exceeds its 2021 and 2024/2025 ATH level in real terms is very small because it was/is due to the rare coincidence of two factors:
1)BTC extremely high reputation relative to other cryptocurrencies "The first, the only, the unique" and 2)very strong stock markets: AI boom that is similar to dot com boom with extremely high P/E ratios (stock market has a strong correlation with BTC price).

BTC ATH real price level equals 30-40 oz of gold, a small 1-room flat in my home town Tallinn or 4 years (average) salary.

Oh man, someone's betting BTC won't surpass inflation. I'll take the bet. How much are u willing to risk?

[decodx]

I think he means "real value" - the face value adjusted for inflation. I.e., what it can purchase on a comparable level.

The $78k today cannot even buy the amount of gold, real estate, or even the same basket of grocery items it could with $69k in 2021 because fiat currency has been heavily inflated since then. So although it was a break of the nominal dollar high, from the aspect of real power purchasing of harder assets it wasn't.

That all said comparing the value of any asset against the single best-and-worst time (only) of historic manic blow off topping is just as flawed a comparison. Bitcoin's real purchasing power has been parabolic upward. He compares the price of Bitcoin to gold, but gold itself isn't a fixed, immutable store of value over shorter time horizons either. Gold is not immune to price fluctuations, especially when taking into account that an increased price undoubtedly leads to higher global mining output, which brings more physical gold supply onto the market over time.

You logic is also suggesting that inflation is affecting Bitcoin because what you have described here is exactly what inflation does. If we look at that logic now, then the statement is correct but should Bitcoin enter into bull run that make it new $1 million per Bitcoin, irrespective of the inflation that we might have experience, Bitcoin will worth more than it ever did in the past. If this happens in the next cycle, inflation would have gotten so bad that Bitcoin will not be worth more.

That's not my logic.

Maybe you didn't understand or you didn't read my post in its entirety, because I clearly stated that I disagree with the OP's comparison of just two assets, and their best-worst performance. Of course inflation also affects the price of Bitcoin, but, as I said, historically, Bitcoin's real purchasing power has been parabolic upward. There's no reason to believe it won't continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

I think he means "real value" - the face value adjusted for inflation. I.e., what it can purchase on a comparable level.

That's right. It's amazing how you're the only one on the entire first page who's brought it up. Everyone's confused; they don't know what the OP is talking about. And that's even though this is a forum about money. Most of us should have a clear understanding of inflation.

Whether we agree with what the OP says is another matter. It’s something gold bugs have been saying lately. I think Peter Schiff says that Bitcoin has lost value relative to gold in real terms since 2021 or 2022.

But the fact is that this is a brief period in the entire historical data set, and gold’s rally seems to have peaked; and just as AI attracts investment, it could burst the bubble, causing money to flee into Bitcoin.

[davis196]

I bet the probability that BTC price exceeds its 2021 and 2024/2025 ATH level in real terms is very small because it was/is due to the rare coincidence of two factors:
1)BTC extremely high reputation relative to other cryptocurrencies "The first, the only, the unique" and 2)very strong stock markets: AI boom that is similar to dot com boom with extremely high P/E ratios (stock market has a strong correlation with BTC price).

BTC ATH real price level equals 30-40 oz of gold, a small 1-room flat in my home town Tallinn or 4 years (average) salary.

Define what do you mean by "real price". Is there such a thing as a "fake price"?
Your post isn't real market analysis. This is more like a "shower thought" opinion, rather than actual analysis.
Comparing the BTC price to 30-40 "oz of gold" or a small 1-room flat in Tallinn doesn't make any sense.  We will have to wait for the next BTC bull run and see whether your "theory" is going to be proven wrong or not. I'm pretty much OK with the current Bitcoin price. I was expecting a lower BTC price, to be honest, but the small price pump to 77-78K USD caught me unprepared.

[AVE5]

What kind of post is this?

     

Bitcoin will not exceed its 2021 and 2024/2025 level in real terms. What do you mean with this?

Bitcoin is over 2021 all time high right now.

Also bitcoin will exceed it 2025 all time high later. We are not yet in the time, but the time is coming.

Op is really incoherent but trying to align with the message, I think he mean that bitcoin will not longer surpass the 2021, 2024 and 2025 market Ath but yet, it still sounds unclear to be comprehend.
But the least I understand and my contributions is that in 2021, bitcoin traded an Ath of $69,000 and in 2024 bitcoin was at $108,000 Ath while 2025 was $126,000.
Bitcoin has always been able to break its Ath's because the market has been gaining so much supports due to the significant influence of the Etf which investor's and institutions has muchly been investing in the bitcoin market.
Of course the adoption of bitcoin hasn't reached it peak but still at its early stages by considering the 4.4% of the global population using bitcoin.
So as time goes, so adoption increases and so on at the support levels bitcoin price will always rise while recent and previous Ath's can be broken at the uncertainty but definitely during the bullish event. That's if the 4 year's cycle remains consistent as historically performed.

[danherbias07]

I was really surprised at the big price drop today, but when it comes to reaching ATH, I think time will tell.

I would not say "never" if I were you. If you have really followed the Bitcoin market, it's easier not to doubt that it can reach heights that it has not reached yet. It will grow more, but I think many can become pessimistic after the recent fall.
Still, we cannot use that to determine what the future brings. Bitcoin has a strong market, and it's definitely getting stronger. If the bottom is $60k, we will be reaching higher values in the next few months or years.