BTC price will probably never exceed its 2021 and 2024/2025 level in real terms

[Lucius]

~snip~
Fiat currencies are inflationary or worse very hyper inflationary.
Gold is inflationary too and with better gold mining technology, more gold will be mined in the future.
Bitcoin is inflationary too but its supply chart has already been in flat area of the curve.

It is worth noting that gold exists elsewhere in the universe, on other planets and asteroids, and it is said that, in 50 years or more, mining gold in those locations might become profitable. What I read somewhere (true or not) is that it is not only a question of how much gold is mined in a certain period, but how much of the same gold actually ends up on the market. Gold producers can influence the price by holding/releasing gold stocks, and I have no doubt that they don't do that.

It always seemed illogical to me to compare gold with Bitcoin because they should have almost nothing in common, but since the price of BTC skyrocketed, it has become inevitable that their paths cannot be separated.

[EluguHcman]

I bet the probability that BTC price exceeds its 2021 and 2024/2025 ATH level in real terms is very small because it was/is due to the rare coincidence of two factors:

Is the bone of the contention arguing that Bitcoin will not surpass the ATH of these past periods mentioned? Or are you referring to certain events by the years that is probably seem unbeatable?

Of course you don't have to bet in challenging the future outcomes of Bitcoin not to exceed any of the historical prices because, volatility is unpredictable, adoption rate is still also low while inflation can all be means to manipulate market price.
You will definitely loose when you underestimate the possessions. You can also give it a long time and you will see the price grows above.

If you also mean certain market movements, that also on the other side probability too while past events could likely be repeated or either not. Though the only events that had repeated itself is the 4 years cycle which we experiences the halven and its bullish and bearish events.

[Mayor of ogba]

The all time high of bitcoin in 2025 was $106,142, which simply means that bitcoin has already surpassed its all time high of 2021 and 2024 respectively, and for the all time high of 2025 bitcoin will surely exceed it in the next cycle, so the probability for bitcoin to exceed 2025 all time high is very high. Don't try to bet with anyone that bitcoin will never exceeds 2025 all time high because you will lose big time.

[Popkon6]

I bet the probability that BTC price exceeds its 2021 and 2024/2025 ATH level in real terms is very small because it was/is due to the rare coincidence of two factors:
1)BTC extremely high reputation relative to other cryptocurrencies "The first, the only, the unique" and 2)very strong stock markets: AI boom that is similar to dot com boom with extremely high P/E ratios (stock market has a strong correlation with BTC price).
BTC ATH real price level equals 30-40 oz of gold, a small 1-room flat in my home town Tallinn or 4 years (average) salary.

Bitcoin price is gradually improving, aiming for the high speed of the past, which is completely opposite to what you have assumed. The time has not yet come for Bitcoin price to exceed the all-time high of $126K in 2025, if you want to see Bitcoin price exceed the all-time high of $126K in 2025, then you will definitely have to wait until 2028.
Because after the 2028 halving cycle takes place - Bitcoin bull market is waiting in 2029, so if you wait for this time, you can see it surpass the all-time high and the possibility of Bitcoin price going from $250K to $300K will be much higher.

[M47AK16]

It's your opinion, so you are welcome.

However, my question: have you noticed what Bitcoin did in the past, especially how history repeats itself over and over in support of the bullishness? That alone should convince you naturally, as there hasn't been a bullish phase in its traditional 4-year cycle without a breakthrough over the current ATH.

Bitcoin will definitely surpass that price margin, the only considerable determiner is the period it would take to do that. Like you mentioned, over the years Bitcoin has always seen a new high during the bullish season but there is bound to be a consolidation phase and a support below the previous ATH, it's nothing new anymore.

Anyone doubting bitcoin's potential is a joke, and are not worthy to be called holders. There is no advise for such people, the evidence after a couple of years from now would speak louder volume of regrets.

We can't actually call them a joke. Everyone has their own opinions and we can't really change it. Even those people are still investors but they tend to be more cautious when it comes to any major event. Us, who really believe in bitcoin have already made up our minds and know the real price potential. I think bitcoin is underpriced even at $100k and over the coming years we are definitely going to see some really mind-blowing levels. I am sure OP would regret saying that BTC price would never exceed past.

I have met a few having similar thoughts. All I was able to do is explain them in debt and try to change their mind but was hardly successful. That's why I would let the future speak for itself.

[348Judah]

Bitcoin might never have gotten to this extent if we were to look at it by the way it has appeared over time, but the value and how consistent it has been always give us confidence in the future that it will always deliver even beyond our expectations. This is why many are continuing in its adoption and also investing to be profitable because of the promising future with Bitcoin serving as our investment asset.

[savetheFORUM]

I don't know if there actually any meaning or you are just bragging about the 1-room flat in Tallinn. Are you some kind of a real-estate broker? Anyway, I don't know from where you got the conclusion that the price will never exceed those past levels. I mean, did you check the current price of bitcoin? It is any which how higher than the previous ATHs. Majority of our community is also expecting a bull run which means the price will simply push way further giving us another ATH.

If you have been with this industry for a long time, you should not be the ones believing bitcoin is a bubble. If anything, bitcoin is just an another form of investment which give actual power to the user.

[BluebloodCXVI]

I think he means "real value" - the face value adjusted for inflation. I.e., what it can purchase on a comparable level.

That's right. It's amazing how you're the only one on the entire first page who's brought it up. Everyone's confused; they don't know what the OP is talking about. And that's even though this is a forum about money. Most of us should have a clear understanding of inflation.

Whether we agree with what the OP says is another matter. It’s something gold bugs have been saying lately. I think Peter Schiff says that Bitcoin has lost value relative to gold in real terms since 2021 or 2022.

But the fact is that this is a brief period in the entire historical data set, and gold’s rally seems to have peaked; and just as AI attracts investment, it could burst the bubble, causing money to flee into Bitcoin.

Yep you’re right @decodx,@Don Pedro Dinero. OP is talking about reduction in terms of real purchasing power not nominal USD, it almost flew over my head at first but seeing this now brought me back to reality.
It seems that OP is also right about the data too because at the 2021 and 2025 peaks, 1BTC was able to buy about ~30-40oz of gold, but now in 2026, 1BTC can only buy about ~20-21oz; if that’s not a clear and real drawdown, then i don’t know what else to call it.

Although i don’t really agree with OP’s claim that the chances of bitcoin exceeding its 2021 and 2024/2025 ATH level in real terms is very slim, i perceive that statement as an opinion rather than a fact.

Bitcoin has recovered from worse real underperformance before, and also the setup that bitcoin has now, i’m talking about ETF’s and institutional ownership, these things are kinda different now; even though i am not proclaiming that they could guarantee high prices for bitcoin but c’mon, the market structure has changed, and this definitely makes the assumption that the future will replicate previous cycles a questionable one.

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves OP by assuming that the BTC/Gold ratio is gonna be a permanent one, anything could happen, gold might even stall or reverse, who knows 🤷‍♂️

[DiMarxist]

I bet the probability that BTC price exceeds its 2021 and 2024/2025 ATH level in real terms is very small because it was/is due to the rare coincidence of two factors:
1)BTC extremely high reputation relative to other cryptocurrencies "The first, the only, the unique" and 2)very strong stock markets: AI boom that is similar to dot com boom with extremely high P/E ratios (stock market has a strong correlation with BTC price).

BTC ATH real price level equals 30-40 oz of gold, a small 1-room flat in my home town Tallinn or 4 years (average) salary.

Op so what are you implying in real Sense because I don't get the message that you are trying to pass to the forum here. That the price of Bitcoin may not exceed $126k if am not forgetting , which was the highest Bitcoin has appriciated before sliding down to what we have today. I tend to disagree with you because I see know reason why someone who is in a forum like this will be having this type of idea.

And to backup your claims the two reasons that you gave is not making sense and adding up to me, why Bitcoin will not exceed your prediction. This thread doesn't make any Sense, for your information Bitcoin will definitely out perform your expectations because from all indications Bitcoin is back the a Bullish move which I see it reaching another all time high again.

[Dreadboost]

The all time high of bitcoin in 2025 was $106,142, which simply means that bitcoin has already surpassed its all time high of 2021 and 2024 respectively, and for the all time high of 2025 bitcoin will surely exceed it in the next cycle, so the probability for bitcoin to exceed 2025 all time high is very high. Don't try to bet with anyone that bitcoin will never exceeds 2025 all time high because you will lose big time.

He meant in real time. Meaning, calculated by percentage increase over 12 months, which is a year period, the ATH of bitcoin hasn't surpassed the 2021, 2024/2025 ATH.

From the look of things, he is right. The 2024/2025 impact made Bitcoin do a 100% price increase. From $25k to $50k, if I'm not mistaken. That same year, it got to $77k. This year we haven't seen that much increase in real time.

[buwaytress]

Didn't see this post when it came out, and surprised to read the vitriol (only read 1st and last page though) but if you do come back to comment, Jaanus, you probably need a bit more explaining to back up your claims. I do agree somewhat that a lot of the pricing is nominal (to use your term in opposition to real terms) but I feel like it hasn't been around long enough to really make that comparison.

Gold, as someone as has pointed out, might lose its status owing to a historical underestimation of supply.

[Taskford]

Didn't see this post when it came out, and surprised to read the vitriol (only read 1st and last page though) but if you do come back to comment, Jaanus, you probably need a bit more explaining to back up your claims. I do agree somewhat that a lot of the pricing is nominal (to use your term in opposition to real terms) but I feel like it hasn't been around long enough to really make that comparison.

Gold, as someone as has pointed out, might lose its status owing to a historical underestimation of supply.

But I think its to early to tell that gold start to lost its status. Maybe there's some noticeable changes happening, but many people still trust that asset and always grab that first to be their safe haven asset, especially when there's crisis or other issues with fiats.

If fiat continue to erode and slowly starts to decline. Gold and other scarce asset will continue to benefit on this and experience pump.

There's actually lots of discussion about Bitcoin can possibly replaced Gold, but let see if that situation will going to happen in future.