I bet the probability that BTC price exceeds its 2021 and 2024/2025 ATH level in real terms is very small because it was/is due to the rare coincidence of two factors:
I don't know what you said, for me your statement is an unreliable and baseless argument. In the middle of 2024, I have also seen this kind of statement, I forget where I saw this statement, what is clear is that the speculation was almost the same as when the Bitcoin price was $77k, many people speculated and were optimistic that Bitcoin's ATH would not exceed the price of $77k, but the real fact that happened in the crypto market is that Bitcoin passed the new ATH created at the $126k level, is that real or a fairy tale.
Now I see again the OP is making statements and arguments historically in terms of speculation, so my question is on what basis is your speculation that the Bitcoin price does not exceed the 2024/25 level, are you speculating based on your illusions or do you actually get real value data, I'm not completely sure of that argument, I speculate the probability of Bitcoin is over 70.
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