Betting on weird things and the issues related

[xenomorfo]

We've seen betting on all sorts of things lately. I remember seeing entire sites dedicated to betting on the weather, betting on traffic, betting on movements of a certain commodity by the seconds difference...

When new forms of betting are created though some issues arise.

My issue with this is that traffic cameras are not necessarily independently verifiable by a third party observer unless they have physical presence or a camera of their own. At least with the weather you have multiple independent sources verifying the data. Satellite imagery from multiple states or organisations and local weather station data by national organisations provide a pretty impartial result.

For a road intersection, I guess you could go there to see if the camera is true to the livestream while you're betting. But what difference does it make when you're just gambling from home for an intersection? For all I know it could be an imaginary place or a fake livestream. In any case the stupider the betting becomes the harder the verified is also.

Some people might think they can have the upper hand this way but it's to no avail. The gambljng trends keep squeezing more and more out of the player. Higher house edge is now the standard even for sports betting. I can imagine betting on traffic has abysmally bad odds.

And another thing, betting on something provides a financial incentive to alter the results if possible. With prediction markets betting on anything becomes easier than ever. So for instance bets on the weather are created on a whim now. It was recently reported then that someone tried to mess with a weather station to win a bet, essentially forcing it to report false results by increasing the surrounding temperature. This puts regular use cases for the weather station in a disadvantaged position just to provide a financial reward to an individual which can even be harmful with other things.

they are simply trying to make the most of gambling addiction
I had read, i don't remember where, that there are even people who play, not happily, but they do it to allow people to bet
it also seems to me like football that is played at the table, under the table

terrifying things.

[SportbetOne]

Even if you think you have pinned down the exact terms of a trade, they still might not pay.

This is the real nightmare with niche prediction markets and weird prop bets. Unlike traditional sports where you have official league scorekeepers, these lines rely on third-party feeds or platform-selected "oracles." The moment there's any ambiguity in how a result is resolved, the player almost always loses the technicality argument.

Doing gambling experiments I think is a double risk. Not only you are not familiar with rules and you will first lose money while learning, but you also risk because of randomness.

Spot on. You're effectively accepting a double handicap: paying a higher house edge or wider spread while having zero insight into feed delays or manipulation risks. It turns what should be a game of odds into pure blind trust.

[lovesmayfamilis]

First of all, we need to agree that people who place bets on strange things are just as strange. If you, OP, understand all the risks and methods of deception, we can guess, or at least assume, that you will always have doubts about the fairness of these bets. This means you most likely won't participate in such games. But people are different. They get bored. Where there are risks, there will always be a bunch of eccentrics or scammers ready to take part in such… I would say, scams. Forging weather station data? Oh my God, if people are willing to do this, then the saying is true: Some people would sell their own mother for money. I would be afraid of such people.

[Cryptmuster]

Betting on weather is a little bit of skill because you get information from weather forecast and other related information on the weather. It's like sportbet and people are happy betting on it

CCTV game is just like slot. You accept whatever, is the outcome even though, there's no one to verify it. One thing that I have come to understand about gambling is when you don't take it personal and do it for fun.

I also consider weather betting to be one of those types of betting where luck plays a bigger role. Even though long term forecasts exist, they change quite often. So personally, I would never bet on the weather. I’m good at sports betting, and that’s what I prefer to stick to, I also completely agree with your opinion that betting should be purely entertainment. Even if you manage to make some money, withdraw it and spend it on something you actually want.

[Somegory]

I've bet on some pretty random sporting events especially if there isn't much to bet on
Admitting, it usually only happens when I have some extra free bets on deck

How did you do it? When you said random it means you went and place bet on any sports that you can find, this must include the sports that you don't watch too, correct me if this sounds wrong.

How did you do it?

Because a brother who was once closed to me used to gamble in this manner too, he tried hockey and other sports and he isn't  even a fan of these other sports except soccer, it doesn't end well for him.

[Yablee0]

Well I haven’t tried betting on traffic or any road related betting but I think those people who bet on those already knew other possibilities. I bet they’re also aware or may have thought of how legitimate those are. Cause just like you have mentioned, in this kind of betting, it’s also possible that it could be pre recorded or not there’s a delay with the time so you can’t really be sure how real-time it was. That’s the risk. And I think those bettors who play this game are aware of that risk yet they still bet on it cause they find it entertaining.

Even in other betting, these kind of stuff may occur and be manipulated. But we still decide to bet. It’s all our choices after all.

I wouldn't even think of it not when I am not that sure of transparency. The only time I can ever think of throwing away such money is when I feel like having fun with friends. Maybe in the midst of a situation or in a kind of little argument or discussion, otherwise it can't be on a regular basis.   

Again, it must be strictly on fun and not for the profit.

[Emjay24]

And another thing, betting on something provides a financial incentive to alter the results if possible. With prediction markets betting on anything becomes easier than ever. So for instance bets on the weather are created on a whim now. It was recently reported then that someone tried to mess with a weather station to win a bet, essentially forcing it to report false results by increasing the surrounding temperature. This puts regular use cases for the weather station in a disadvantaged position just to provide a financial reward to an individual which can even be harmful with other things.

For me, betting has gone out of hand with the invention of prediction markets, I am not a fan of betting on sensitive events like weather condition, war events, flight cancellation and all that, it makes insiders treat reality and events involving real risks and possible loss of lives as a game when they want to opt in some maneuvers for financial advantage. I really applaud FlightAware for the step they took against Kalshi, everything should not be open to gambling because human mind is tricky and when greed sets in, it might lead to a bigger institutional problem if not checkmated.

[TheUltraElite]

First of all, we need to agree that people who place bets on strange things are just as strange.

Its not about strangeness but about lack of things to gamble on. Sometimes the leagues that one is interested in are running and the person has the sting of betting on their head, hammering. Unable to control the urge they look for things to bet on and this is the reason why prediction markets came in the first place. Eventually these strange type of games are coming up which includes this road intersection prediction.

Maybe in a couple of months we will see prediction games of number of people entering a restaurant or a bathroom

Choice is of the player, if they want to bet, go ahead but know the risks.

[leea-1334]

Even if you think you have pinned down the exact terms of a trade, they still might not pay.

This is the real nightmare with niche prediction markets and weird prop bets. Unlike traditional sports where you have official league scorekeepers, these lines rely on third-party feeds or platform-selected "oracles."

I am reading more and more about this now actually,,, was considering very much to try these markets when I saw them coming especially during political events but digging deeper it looks less reliable than the way media portrays. I read that even somebody's death was not given a win in some places just because it was not officially confirmed by the preferred sources.

[Swordsoffreedom]

My issue with this is that traffic cameras are not necessarily independently verifiable by a third party observer unless they have physical presence or a camera of their own. At least with the weather you have multiple independent sources verifying the data. Satellite imagery from multiple states or organisations and local weather station data by national organisations provide a pretty impartial result.

I agree with your main concern. But traffic betting cannot be reduced to just any fake livestream or imaginary place problem. This does not address the real oracle problem.

This type of betting is already a reality today. There is betting game of counting cars from live CCTV. Where the operator uses AI to count vehicles and use that as the result. But there is really no way to verify what we see on the screen. So we need a verification system where even if there is manipulation in one place, another data source can catch it. Like- multiple independent feeds, immutable timestamped recording, sensor provenance, anomaly detection or predetermined fallback sources etc.

And weather-station manipulation is really concerning. After an unusual temperature spike in sensor at Paris Charles de Gaulle, Météo-France filed a police complaint. Same time, some traders at Polymarket made big profit. Since investigation is still ongoing into the alleged tampering, it would not be right to call it proven cheating.

[Die_empty]

Mate, of course, you are absolutely right. You can't verify something like traffic cameras(unless you are a cop) and you can't verify many other weird things people are betting on. What’s important here is that nobody is forcing people to put their money on those weird things — they’re doing it voluntarily. It's their fun, so, let them do it the way they want.

My concern is that these games can be easily manipulated. The case of a prediction market bettor using a hairdryer to manipulate the data from a Météo-France weather station at Paris’s Charles de Gaulle airport is just one example. I assume that there will be more manipulations, and we will never know until a proper investigation is carried out.

Anyway, Slots is also can't be check by verifiable especially third party observer. I think, if you already aware about mostly like fairness of the game you will always check the game first before playing.

I have seen some tools online that claim to determine the fairness of slot games. I have not used any of them, but I guess I have seen some threads regarding this topic.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5235045.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5585473.0

[virasisog]

I've experienced betting on government election before, not online but with my friends and family.
Even tried betting on vehicles back with my friends like how many cars would pass by before the next motorcycle the closest number would win, it was back when I was just graduated from school and unemployed.
There were so many small weird bet that my friends and I made back then.

[free-bit.co.in]

For a road intersection, I guess you could go there to see if the camera is true to the livestream while you're betting. But what difference does it make when you're just gambling from home for an intersection? For all I know it could be an imaginary place or a fake livestream. In any case the stupider the betting becomes the harder the verified is also.

Hmm, in this case we are not actually betting on real world event. We are betting on centralized platform's reported version of reality.

But I disagree a little bit with the prediction market necessarily meaning huge house edge. Many prediction market are not like traditional house vs player model like sportsbook. Fees, spreads and liquidity cost also play big role here.

So as betting market moves more toward real world event, just good odd or accurate prediction will not be enough. We need to know where those data is coming from, who is verifying it, who can challenge it if it is wrong and who will ultimately determine winner.

[Pandu Geddon]

It will definitely cause new problems. But it’s not surprising that such things can happen. Betting on prediction markets can also be exploited by certain people, and of course, such bets can very easily tempt certain people to manipulate them for their own benefit. For those who like to bet on sports bets, I don’t think they would be interested in this type of betting. Maybe a few are curious.

[Moreno233]

Gambling is entirely a game of luck, so these new games are created to give players alternatives to test their luck. As long as there are chances of winning, people may not care much about their verifiability. Even some of the popular casino games we play, their are not easily verifiable by third party. I saw a post somewhere that says that even if the seed of some games are made public, that shady things can still happen, not sure how true this is but "there is no smoke without fire".