Indian General Elections 2014

[deadley]

The Indian stock market up 700 points today
Markets are clearly factoring in a modi win

but there is fear too coz if Modi will not become PM, there will be big crash too.

[bryant.coleman]

The Indian stock market up 700 points today
Markets are clearly factoring in a modi win

Have a feeling that the market is expecting too much from Modi. He might reduce the Corporate tax and income tax, but the treasury is almost empty after almost 10 years of UPA rule. One of the options would be to bring back the money stashed in Switzerland and Cayman Islands. But it'd take a lot of time.

Note: The reason for today's rally, according to my Indian friend (works at KR Choksey, and Indian share trading company) was that two exit polls were leaked (NDTV and HT). The Indian Election Commission had banned the Exit polls, so they can't show them on TV. But the market players bribed the TV channels and got the detailed results. I'll try to get the detailed results from him.

[AnonyMint]

Have a feeling that the market is expecting too much from Modi. He might reduce the Corporate tax and income tax, but the treasury is almost empty after almost 10 years of UPA rule

If you review the data of my prior post, you see that India total debt is more than 200% of GDP. As the global economy collapses in 2016, where is corporate income going to come from?

GDP will shrink globally by 30% or so, thus debt-to-GDP ratios will increase.

If Modi fails due to this bad timing, then won't the populace return to a socialist "solution" out of desperation? Which will only make the downslide worse.

The problem is that 1/4 of India's population can't even eat without subsidies.

And the crooks who run the country go along with reforms for as long as debt is expanding and they can get their slice of the boom, but in a bust the crooks have to turn to socialism to drive up government spending so they can milk the public spending spigot.

The point of my prior post was the developing world had been in a phase of expanding debt due to the West's ZIRP which caused fixed income to chase higher yields in the emerging market debt.

This caused the "taipans" in each emerging market country to go along with "reforms" in order to receive higher bond ratings and get their slice of that free money.

But in 2016 the trend will have radically shifted and the "taipans" will revert to their former paradigm of milking the public spigot, because the free bond money will be running back to the dollar and the USA as rates rise there and the global economy turns to chaos.

Make sure you understand this, as it applies to all emerging markets.

[BitCoinDream]

The Indian stock market up 700 points today
Markets are clearly factoring in a modi win

but there is fear too coz if Modi will not become PM, there will be big crash too.

Before the result announcement market will crash. It is normal and happens before every central election, if u check the historical data. It starts reviving after the cabinet is formed. Normal trend.

[bryant.coleman]

If you review the data of my prior post, you see that India total debt is more than 200% of GDP. As the global economy collapses in 2016, where is corporate income going to come from?

According to the experts some $1.5 trillion in black money is stashed abroad by the Indians. Most of it in various tax heavens, such as Switzerland, Channel Islands, Anguilla, St Kitts and the UAE. Modi is saying that he will bring back most of it to India.

[deadley]

If you review the data of my prior post, you see that India total debt is more than 200% of GDP. As the global economy collapses in 2016, where is corporate income going to come from?

According to the experts some $1.5 trillion in black money is stashed abroad by the Indians. Most of it in various tax heavens, such as Switzerland, Channel Islands, Anguilla, St Kitts and the UAE. Modi is saying that he will bring back most of it to India.

bringing back black money never be easy even for Modi, coz mostly that money posses big corporates and political leader. who will also hold power.

[deadley]

The Indian stock market up 700 points today
Markets are clearly factoring in a modi win

but there is fear too coz if Modi will not become PM, there will be big crash too.

Before the result announcement market will crash. It is normal and happens before every central election, if u check the historical data. It starts reviving after the cabinet is formed. Normal trend.

I am not saying market will crash before the results, I am saying if Modi will not become PM then there will be huge crash in market coz market gained so much in hope of BJP/Modi government.

[bryant.coleman]

I am not saying market will crash before the results, I am saying if Modi will not become PM then there will be huge crash in market coz market gained so much in hope of BJP/Modi government.

Yes. May be a 3,000-4,000 point fall (BSE Sensex). The market had crashed by 15-20% in 2004, when the NDA lost the elections then. Something similar can happen.

[bryant.coleman]

The latest opinion poll results which we have from India (provided by Madhusudhan, Statistical analyst and psephologist ,Delhi, India):

[sgk]

The latest opinion poll results which we have from India (provided by Madhusudhan, Statistical analyst and psephologist ,Delhi, India):

Looks about right; but what are those purple and magenta areas?

[deadley]

Exit Poll survey giving 240-290 seats to NDA means Modi will be next Prime Minister of India.

[sgk]

Exit Poll survey giving 240-290 seats to NDA means Modi will be next Prime Minister of India.

Times has printed headlines today: "Ab Ki Baar, Modi Sarkaar"

[deadley]

Exit Poll survey giving 240-290 seats to NDA means Modi will be next Prime Minister of India.

Times has printed headlines today: "Ab Ki Baar, Modi Sarkaar"

Modi campaign was very successful thats why, let see how he will run govt. coz who become very popular in election, mostly do not much when in Power.

[bryant.coleman]

Looks about right; but what are those purple and magenta areas?

Purple is non-UPA, non-NDA and non-Left parties.

Magenta is the Left (includes crappy parties such as the CPM, CPI, Forward Bloc.etc).

[Sithara007]

Just 48 hours more to know who will be the next Indian prime minister.

[AnonyMint]

Just 48 hours more to know who will be the next Indian prime minister.

Non-event. The economics are already cast in stone per my upthread post.

[maurya78]

The markets are already reflecting a strong Modi-led govt

More downside than upside in the immediate term
More upside if saturday bears out the exit polls

[bryant.coleman]

Modi in power could bring India, China closer: Chinese daily

http://news.oneindia.in/international/narendra-modi-in-power-could-bring-india-china-closer-chinese-daily-1442896.html

If BJP prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi comes to power, it could bring India and China closer, says an influential state-run Chinese daily. The Global Times in a write up said that Modi was once a "practical businessman". After he became chief minister of Gujarat he established good relations with China. "A large number of Chinese enterprises invested in Gujarat, contributing to the economic development of the state. Therefore, ties between China and India may become closer under Modi's leadership," said the daily.

[bryant.coleman]

Contacted a friend in India, got some live streaming links for the election results. (Results will start pouring in from 8 am local time, i.e 2:30 am Greenwich Mean Time.

NDTV:

http://www.ndtv.com/video/live/channel/ndtv24x7

Times Now:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQbIzt-75Ik
http://live.indiatimes.com/

Headlines Today:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dsjAl2nel7o

CNN IBN:

http://ibnlive.in.com/livetv/

[bryant.coleman]

153 leads so far. NDA leading in 96 seats, and UPA leading in just 36 seats. Massive wave in favor of NDA, except in certain minority dominated pockets such as Kerala.