Indian General Elections 2014

[Sithara007]

The Indian General Elections will start from tomorrow onward. I'd like to hear from the Indians (and non-Indians) about their views.

Here is the latest opinion poll:



Also, I'd like to hear about whether the next government will be pro-US or pro-Russia.

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[bryant.coleman]

Chances are that Narendra Modi-led NDA will form the next government. It will be mildly anti-US.

[goxed]

Chances are that Narendra Modi-led NDA will form the next government. It will be mildly anti-US.

I thought US had mended ties with the NDA candidate.

[bryant.coleman]

I thought US had mended ties with the NDA candidate.

The US is trying to do that. But Modi will be a complete buffoon if he decides to forget all the insults dished out to him earlier by the US.

[Sindelar1938]

Modi is the likeliest outcome, weak or strong version tbd

[bryant.coleman]

This is really getting interesting. Bitcoins being used for bribing voters in India. I knew that India was a very innovative place with a very young and tech savvy population. But I never expected this. 

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=575374.0

[AnonyMint]

What is the impact of this on India's recently introduced plan to subsidize food to the peasants (who can't eat 3X per day)?

India is running a huge fiscal deficit and if that food program is not halted, India will eventually go into currency crisis and default.

Communism fails. The solution for India is to get the State out of all the affairs and let the people act freely. But the problem is the caste system is too ingrained.

I have a very negative macroeconomic outlook on India until it defaults and resets. Long-term India's population will rise in the Knowledge Age, i.e. the microeconomics are dynamic and resilient. But on the macro scale there are 100s of millions not yet educated. Will take decades.

[bryant.coleman]

What is the impact of this on India's recently introduced plan to subsidize food to the peasants (who can't eat 3X per day)?

Which ever party is elected to the parliament will be forced to continue with this policy. Else there will be riots.

India is one of the worst places for a libertarian to live. 50% of the jobs are reserved for certain ethnic groups (includes some very affluent groups). In US also there is an affirmative action program, but it is not this worse.

Also, India is having a huge informal sector. Only around 2% of the population pay any income tax, and they are exploited very heavily. Most of the emigrants from India are from this sector. Of the rest, some 18% work as merchants and other informal employees, and don't pay any tax. There is another 80%, which lives on the welfare benefits.

[sgk]

This is really getting interesting. Bitcoins being used for bribing voters in India. I knew that India was a very innovative place with a very young and tech savvy population. But I never expected this. 

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=575374.0

LOL..  I wonder how many of the voters will understand what these politicians are offering when they say 'Bitcoins'.

[AnonyMint]

What is the impact of this on India's recently introduced plan to subsidize food to the peasants (who can't eat 3X per day)?

Which ever party is elected to the parliament will be forced to continue with this policy. Else there will be riots.

India is one of the worst places for a libertarian to live. 50% of the jobs are reserved for certain ethnic groups (includes some very affluent groups). In US also there is an affirmative action program, but it is not this worse.

Also, India is having a huge informal sector. Only around 2% of the population pay any income tax, and they are exploited very heavily. Most of the emigrants from India are from this sector. Of the rest, some 18% work as merchants and other informal employees, and don't pay any tax. There is another 80%, which lives on the welfare benefits.

Thank you for confirming my grim macroeconomic outlook for India.

[Balthazar]

This is really getting interesting. Bitcoins being used for bribing voters in India. I knew that India was a very innovative place with a very young and tech savvy population. But I never expected this. 

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=575374.0

I don't think that bribes made using direct transaction to voters. It seems that bitcoin is used to transact money to local NGO, which converts it into USD/EUR/whatever and then use it to bribe voters.

[bryant.coleman]

I don't think that bribes made using direct transaction to voters. It seems that bitcoin is used to transact money to local NGO, which converts it into USD/EUR/whatever and then use it to bribe voters.

Yes. That is exactly what is happening. The Indian Election Commission is monitoring every large financial transaction made during this time. So the political parties are finding it really hard to transfer large sums of money, to bribe people. (Political parties in India do that regularly, bribing voters with cash, in addition to clothes and alcohol).

[wanellane]

What unexpected news are! I wonder what will happen next

[bryant.coleman]

Latest opinion polls predicts a simple majority for the opposition NDA:

[TrailingComet]

Modi will most likely be the next India PM

[bryant.coleman]

Modi will most likely be the next India PM

Then that will be bad news for the US. He has been denied visa to the US, at the request of some of the Democrat Party senators such as Keith Ellison.

[sgk]

Modi will most likely be the next India PM

Then that will be bad news for the US. He has been denied visa to the US, at the request of some of the Democrat Party senators such as Keith Ellison.

A few days ago Modi appeared on 'Aap Ki Adalat' with Rajat Sharma.
This question was raised, about USA denying visa to Modi. He mocked it by saying "We'll make India a better place than USA and people from USA will have to stand in queue to apply for an Indian visa"

[sanjoea]

I am going to vote for Modi only

[bryant.coleman]

I am going to vote for Modi only

A tweet from one of my friends (who is politically neutral):

Lady in my polling booth in Bangalore couldn't find Modi on the EVM. Asked aloud which button! Room burst into laughter.

One of the replies to that tweet:

My domestic help too went and asked the official - which button for Narendra Modi !

[Sithara007]

^^^ It is not a Modi wave, but a Modi tsunami. 

[sgk]

^^^ It is not a Modi wave, but a Modi tsunami. 

Ab Ki Baar, Modi Sarkaar

[bryant.coleman]

Ab Ki Baar, Modi Sarkaar

Too early to say. Even if the NDA gets 270-280 seats, the anti-Modi faction within the BJP (Sushma Swaraj and LK Advani) will try their best to sabotage his PM candidature. One of the NDA constituents (Shiv Sena) is not keen on Modi becoming the PM. So, the picture will become clearer only after the results are announced on May 16th.

[pandher]

These elections will be very exciting. AAP has a very strong grip here in the northern region, especially Punjab

[bryant.coleman]

These elections will be very exciting. AAP has a very strong grip here in the northern region, especially Punjab

lol... the AAP might end up with Zero seats. In an already polarized election, they shamelessly tried to woo radical Muslims like Mukhtar Ansari and Imam Bukhari. This will cost them the secular Hindu votes. 

[ahmedjadoon]

So what does unofficial result say dudes?Who is leading so far?

[bryant.coleman]

So what does unofficial result say dudes?Who is leading so far?

The polling is still not complete in most of the states. It will finish on May 11th. Only after that the results will be clear. The Indian opinion polls are notoriously erratic. So can't depend upon them.

[pandher]

These elections will be very exciting. AAP has a very strong grip here in the northern region, especially Punjab

lol... the AAP might end up with Zero seats. In an already polarized election, they shamelessly tried to woo radical Muslims like Mukhtar Ansari and Imam Bukhari. This will cost them the secular Hindu votes. 

Lol, AAP has 4 confirmed seats in Punjab for sure

[bryant.coleman]

Lol, AAP has 4 confirmed seats in Punjab for sure

According to the opinion polls, AAP will get 10-12% of the votes in Punjab. I don't think that they will win even a single seat with that sort of vote-share. AAP might get zero seats in nationwide as well.

[Sindelar1938]

Looks like it could be tighter for Modi than originally expected
May need to win tricky regional allies

[bryant.coleman]

Looks like it could be tighter for Modi than originally expected
May need to win tricky regional allies

Ground reports suggest otherwise. After the polls started, BJP gained a lot of momentum, while the regional parties lost it. The prospects have declined for almost all of the regional parties, perhaps with the exception of TMC.

[deadley]

These elections will be very exciting. AAP has a very strong grip here in the northern region, especially Punjab

lol... the AAP might end up with Zero seats. In an already polarized election, they shamelessly tried to woo radical Muslims like Mukhtar Ansari and Imam Bukhari. This will cost them the secular Hindu votes. 

Lol, AAP has 4 confirmed seats in Punjab for sure

you guys forgetting Delhi, strongest hold for AAP, atleast 3-5 seats confirm in Delhi. and what i heard for Punjab 1 seat most probably will be win that will be mann seat and another seat will be chandigarh that 2 seat otherwise no more hope for Punjab.

[bryant.coleman]

you guys forgetting Delhi, strongest hold for AAP, atleast 3-5 seats confirm in Delhi. and what i heard for Punjab 1 seat most probably will be win that will be mann seat and another seat will be chandigarh that 2 seat otherwise no more hope for Punjab.

Zero seats for AAP in Delhi. AAP has lost 90% of its middle class support in Delhi, and now enjoys the support only from the slum dwellers and minorities. Not enough to win any of the seats.

[deadley]

you guys forgetting Delhi, strongest hold for AAP, atleast 3-5 seats confirm in Delhi. and what i heard for Punjab 1 seat most probably will be win that will be mann seat and another seat will be chandigarh that 2 seat otherwise no more hope for Punjab.

Zero seats for AAP in Delhi. AAP has lost 90% of its middle class support in Delhi, and now enjoys the support only from the slum dwellers and minorities. Not enough to win any of the seats.

I am also living in Delhi, and also middle class and you are saying 0 seats for AAP, AAP voter dont create noise like BJP we just go and Vote for AAP thats it, like we did in assembly election. and you saw the results.

[bryant.coleman]

I am also living in Delhi, and also middle class and you are saying 0 seats for AAP, AAP voter dont create noise like BJP we just go and Vote for AAP thats it, like we did in assembly election. and you saw the results.

OK.. why can't we wait till May 16? Either one of us will be proven wrong. The other can have the bragging rights. 

[deadley]

I am also living in Delhi, and also middle class and you are saying 0 seats for AAP, AAP voter dont create noise like BJP we just go and Vote for AAP thats it, like we did in assembly election. and you saw the results.

OK.. why can't we wait till May 16? Either one of us will be proven wrong. The other can have the bragging rights. 

haha, thats also true lets wait for result day. then we all know who got what.

[sgk]

I am also living in Delhi, and also middle class and you are saying 0 seats for AAP, AAP voter dont create noise like BJP we just go and Vote for AAP thats it, like we did in assembly election. and you saw the results.

OK.. why can't we wait till May 16? Either one of us will be proven wrong. The other can have the bragging rights. 

I will play referee for 1 BTC if you guys want

[Balthazar]

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/asia/2014/04/indian-man-sets-fire-himself-tv-set-2014429125155908258.html
http://translate.google.ru/translate?hl=ru&sl=ru&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Flenta.ru%2Fnews%2F2014%2F04%2F30%2Ffire1%2F

F*CK o_O

[bryant.coleman]

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/asia/2014/04/indian-man-sets-fire-himself-tv-set-2014429125155908258.html

Kamruzzama Fauji, the local leader of the Bahujan Samaj Party who was targeted is quite infamous. No one knows about the exact motive of the attacker, but I suspect that it is related to the criminal connections of the targeted politician.

[Sindelar1938]

Modi still going to win?

[bryant.coleman]

Modi still going to win?

Yes. However, it is doubtful whether the NDA will get an absolute majority or not. There are some 60-70% chances for it. However, if the results are bad, then they might have to seek support from parties such as BJD and AIADMK.

[deadley]

Modi still going to win?

Yes. However, it is doubtful whether the NDA will get an absolute majority or not. There are some 60-70% chances for it. However, if the results are bad, then they might have to seek support from parties such as BJD and AIADMK.

I dont like Modi, But still I know there is very high chances Modi will be Next PM of India.

[bryant.coleman]

I dont like Modi, But still I know there is very high chances Modi will be Next PM of India.

He is a divisive and polarizing figure. And he has caught the attention from the world leaders as well. He is regarded as anti-US and pro-Russia. But the Americans have tried to appease him by removing Madeleine Albright.

[deadley]

I dont like Modi, But still I know there is very high chances Modi will be Next PM of India.

He is a divisive and polarizing figure. And he has caught the attention from the world leaders as well. He is regarded as anti-US and pro-Russia. But the Americans have tried to appease him by removing Madeleine Albright.

yes Its true, Modi Campaign is really very effective thats the reason whole world following Indian General Election and even Financial world very positive about Modi.

[bryant.coleman]

yes Its true, Modi Campaign is really very effective thats the reason whole world following Indian General Election and even Financial world very positive about Modi.

Markets are positive about Modi, because he is a right-wing leader, with a conservative economic agenda, unlike the current Indian government, which is led by the extreme-leftists and socialists. If he becomes the PM, then tax rates will come down, which will help the industrial growth. The 5-year reign of UPA-2 was one of the worst periods of economic stagnation in the Indian history. Income Tax / Corporate tax / VAT rates are at all time high, and common people are finding less and less disposable income in their pockets.

[counter]

So a little regime change but more of the same with minor differences. 

[deadley]

yes Its true, Modi Campaign is really very effective thats the reason whole world following Indian General Election and even Financial world very positive about Modi.

Markets are positive about Modi, because he is a right-wing leader, with a conservative economic agenda, unlike the current Indian government, which is led by the extreme-leftists and socialists. If he becomes the PM, then tax rates will come down, which will help the industrial growth. The 5-year reign of UPA-2 was one of the worst periods of economic stagnation in the Indian history. Income Tax / Corporate tax / VAT rates are at all time high, and common people are finding less and less disposable income in their pockets.

I dont think there will be huge difference. Indian policies almost same for all Parties doesnt matter its Congress or BJP

[Sindelar1938]

I don't know, think Modi would do things very differently
Not business as usual

[TrailingComet]

Modi is a complex guy, think India will be governed differently under him

[bryant.coleman]

I dont think there will be huge difference. Indian policies almost same for all Parties doesnt matter its Congress or BJP

There will be huge difference. Do you want to say that the right-wing and left-wing parties might be having the same economic policies? I have also read the respective manifestos of the two major parties. This is what I could understand:

1. BJP: Will reduce taxes. Will eliminate freebies. No special treatment to anyone.
2. INC: Will increase taxes. Will encourage freebies. Special treatment to minorities in the form of loans and grants.

Check yourself:

http://www.bjp.org/manifesto2014
http://inc.in/manifesto/

[bryant.coleman]

lol... Indian beef exports will be under threat if BJP comes to power.

India's elections spark debate on beef exports

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-27251802

For now, India's laws banning the slaughter of cows and making it tough for restaurants to serve beef do not seem to be holding back the market too much. But there is an anxiety that if the BJP comes to power - and if it stands by its anti-beef manifesto - then the industry in India risks losing some of its shine.

[deadley]

I dont think there will be huge difference. Indian policies almost same for all Parties doesnt matter its Congress or BJP

There will be huge difference. Do you want to say that the right-wing and left-wing parties might be having the same economic policies? I have also read the respective manifestos of the two major parties. This is what I could understand:

1. BJP: Will reduce taxes. Will eliminate freebies. No special treatment to anyone.
2. INC: Will increase taxes. Will encourage freebies. Special treatment to minorities in the form of loans and grants.

Check yourself:

http://www.bjp.org/manifesto2014
http://inc.in/manifesto/

lol, it was congress who tried to stopped freebies like reducin Gas Cylinder with subsidies, remove subsidies from Petrol, removing subsidies in diesel in process and that is the main reason they are facing so much problem, Indian politics is really different becoz now mostly No party will be in full power they need support from others small parties so if BJP will start removing freebies they will face same problem like congress faced.

[TrailingComet]

what is the view now on how many seats Modi is going to end up with?
seems like the euphoria has faded a little

[deadley]

what is the view now on how many seats Modi is going to end up with?
seems like the euphoria has faded a little

most probably BJP get like 200 saeats and other alliance 50 so they need 1 more ally and most probably it will be AIDMK Jayalalitha her party will get around 30 seats. then it become NDA Government.

[TrailingComet]

I was under the impression that the AIADMK has not aligned itself at the centre
So they might go with the BJP?

[deadley]

I was under the impression that the AIADMK has not aligned itself at the centre
So they might go with the BJP?

they did not joined NDA coz of Muslim Votes, if AIDMK did formed pre -poll alliance then Muslim wont vote for AIDMK coz of Modi. thats why AIDMK will join NDA after election so they wont face any problem.

[bryant.coleman]

lol, it was congress who tried to stopped freebies like reducin Gas Cylinder with subsidies, remove subsidies from Petrol, removing subsidies in diesel in process and that is the main reason they are facing so much problem, Indian politics is really different becoz now mostly No party will be in full power they need support from others small parties so if BJP will start removing freebies they will face same problem like congress faced.

Removed subsidies from petrol and diesel? The Congress fooled people by increasing the import duty on petrol and diesel. Petrol in India is one of the most expensive in the entire Asian region, even when around 30% of it is mined in India itself. There is no subsidy on petrol in India. Indians on average pay almost 50% more than the international price.

what is the view now on how many seats Modi is going to end up with?
seems like the euphoria has faded a little

NDA around 275-300, with BJP at 225-250.

[deadley]

lol, it was congress who tried to stopped freebies like reducin Gas Cylinder with subsidies, remove subsidies from Petrol, removing subsidies in diesel in process and that is the main reason they are facing so much problem, Indian politics is really different becoz now mostly No party will be in full power they need support from others small parties so if BJP will start removing freebies they will face same problem like congress faced.

Removed subsidies from petrol and diesel? The Congress fooled people by increasing the import duty on petrol and diesel. Petrol in India is one of the most expensive in the entire Asian region, even when around 30% of it is mined in India itself. There is no subsidy on petrol in India. Indians on average pay almost 50% more than the international price.


 

I know taxes on Petrol very high, but when BJP came to power 1998-2004 they also did not touch taxes that time also so how you can believe this time they will reduce taxes, even in Gujarat taxes on petrol very high.

[bryant.coleman]

I know taxes on Petrol very high, but when BJP came to power 1998-2004 they also did not touch taxes that time also so how you can believe this time they will reduce taxes, even in Gujarat taxes on petrol very high.

When BJP left power in 2004, the taxes were not this high. After 2004, the taxes were increased half-a-dozen times by the Congress (especially during the UPA-1).

Why talk only about Gujarat? What about Goa? Goa is a state ruled by BJP and petrol there costs just 59.25 Rs/Ltr, compared to 71.45 Rs/Ltr in Delhi.

[deadley]

I know taxes on Petrol very high, but when BJP came to power 1998-2004 they also did not touch taxes that time also so how you can believe this time they will reduce taxes, even in Gujarat taxes on petrol very high.

When BJP left power in 2004, the taxes were not this high. After 2004, the taxes were increased half-a-dozen times by the Congress (especially during the UPA-1).

Why talk only about Gujarat? What about Goa? Goa is a state ruled by BJP and petrol there costs just 59.25 Rs/Ltr, compared to 71.45 Rs/Ltr in Delhi.

Becoz Modi is CM of Gujarat not Goa, and Goa is famous for tourism thats why they can afford no state taxes in petrol, but not other states, I know taxes is really high it must be drop atleast 50%.

[bryant.coleman]

Becoz Modi is CM of Gujarat not Goa, and Goa is famous for tourism thats why they can afford no state taxes in petrol, but not other states, I know taxes is really high it must be drop atleast 50%.

Well.. when Congress was in power, petrol in Goa was costing Rs. 70 / Lr (until 2011), even though Goa was famous for tourism back then also. BJP came to power and suddenly the price dropped to Rs. 59 / Lr. Can you give me any example of Congress reducing rates after getting in to power?

[deadley]

Becoz Modi is CM of Gujarat not Goa, and Goa is famous for tourism thats why they can afford no state taxes in petrol, but not other states, I know taxes is really high it must be drop atleast 50%.

Well.. when Congress was in power, petrol in Goa was costing Rs. 70 / Lr (until 2011), even though Goa was famous for tourism back then also. BJP came to power and suddenly the price dropped to Rs. 59 / Lr. Can you give me any example of Congress reducing rates after getting in to power?

BJP govt. not only in Goa, why not they reduce to Punjab, Rajasthan, Gujarat or MP if its viable.

[Sithara007]

One of the accusations against the BJP is that it does not care about the poor people. The BJP support is mostly middle-class and that is why it opposes giving freebies to the poor people.

[deadley]

One of the accusations against the BJP is that it does not care about the poor people. The BJP support is mostly middle-class and that is why it opposes giving freebies to the poor people.

I am not saying BJP dont care about the Poor People, we were arguing about that BJP govt will reduce taxes heavily and according to me it wont happen.

[bryant.coleman]

I am not saying BJP dont care about the Poor People, we were arguing about that BJP govt will reduce taxes heavily and according to me it wont happen.

Congress introduced the Service Tax during UPA-1 and it is squeezing money out of hardworking Indians ever since. Right now, Service Tax is the most heavy tax imposed on ordinary Indians.

[deadley]

I am not saying BJP dont care about the Poor People, we were arguing about that BJP govt will reduce taxes heavily and according to me it wont happen.

Congress introduced the Service Tax during UPA-1 and it is squeezing money out of hardworking Indians ever since. Right now, Service Tax is the most heavy tax imposed on ordinary Indians.

its doesnt matter who introduced which tax, matter is that will if other party become in power will they remove or reduce the taxex.

[bryant.coleman]

its doesnt matter who introduced which tax, matter is that will if other party become in power will they remove or reduce the taxex.

The BJP clearly states in their manifesto that they will reduce the taxes (Income tax / Service tax & Import Duty), while the Congress doesn't even mentions it in theirs.

[deadley]

its doesnt matter who introduced which tax, matter is that will if other party become in power will they remove or reduce the taxex.

The BJP clearly states in their manifesto that they will reduce the taxes (Income tax / Service tax & Import Duty), while the Congress doesn't even mentions it in theirs.

90% manifesto just written for election time, after winning election I dont think they even read what they wrote on manifesto. this apply for both party.

[bryant.coleman]

90% manifesto just written for election time, after winning election I dont think they even read what they wrote on manifesto. this apply for both party.

The NDA government in 1999-2004 actually did almost 80% of what was said in the manifesto back then. So Indians might be feeling a little bit more confident about it.

[deadley]

90% manifesto just written for election time, after winning election I dont think they even read what they wrote on manifesto. this apply for both party.

The NDA government in 1999-2004 actually did almost 80% of what was said in the manifesto back then. So Indians might be feeling a little bit more confident about it.

we will see, I just want to see like Media was following AAP govt in January, if BJP govt make they will follow BJP too and ask everytime when BJP/Modi goin to fulfill his manifesto.

[bryant.coleman]

Someone prepared a chart for all the 543 seats, according to NDA's chances: (This will come in handy after 11 days, when early results come in).

[Sithara007]

^^^ Bellary at 308, Trivandrum at 359, Vizag at 310? These seats have more than 50% chances of the NDA winning them. Meanwhile, some of the higher ranked seats such as South Goa (#283) has less than 50% chances, IMO.

[bryant.coleman]

^^^ Bellary at 308, Trivandrum at 359, Vizag at 310? These seats have more than 50% chances of the NDA winning them. Meanwhile, some of the higher ranked seats such as South Goa (#283) has less than 50% chances, IMO.

I don't reside in India, so don't have that much information on a seat-wise basis. Still, as far as I could understand, Trivandrum is in the state of Kerala and Vizag is in AP. The NDA is very weak in both the states, while Goa is a NDA-ruled state.

[deadley]

^^^ Bellary at 308, Trivandrum at 359, Vizag at 310? These seats have more than 50% chances of the NDA winning them. Meanwhile, some of the higher ranked seats such as South Goa (#283) has less than 50% chances, IMO.

I don't reside in India, so don't have that much information on a seat-wise basis. Still, as far as I could understand, Trivandrum is in the state of Kerala and Vizag is in AP. The NDA is very weak in both the states, while Goa is a NDA-ruled state.

yes BJP mostly doesnt exist in South India.

[goxed]

Someone prepared a chart for all the 543 seats, according to NDA's chances: (This will come in handy after 11 days, when early results come in).

can you kindly explain this cheat sheet a little bit?

[goxed]

Oops looks like the probability of a fascist becoming the head of state is high. http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/mehdi-hasan/narenda-modi-indias-milosevic_b_5252704.html

Also this is a good video synopsis on John Oliver's show
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aZDYsSOngik

[bryant.coleman]

Someone prepared a chart for all the 543 seats, according to NDA's chances: (This will come in handy after 11 days, when early results come in).
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bm1jPTiCAAAlUwN.png

can you kindly explain this cheat sheet a little bit?

#1 is the seat where NDA is having the best chance to win, while the last one #543 is the seat where they are having the lowest percentage of chance to win. I think, up to #280-285, they have more than 50% chance of winning.

[AnonyMint]

What is the impact of this on India's recently introduced plan to subsidize food to the peasants (who can't eat 3X per day)?

Which ever party is elected to the parliament will be forced to continue with this policy. Else there will be riots.

India is one of the worst places for a libertarian to live. 50% of the jobs are reserved for certain ethnic groups (includes some very affluent groups). In US also there is an affirmative action program, but it is not this worse.

Also, India is having a huge informal sector. Only around 2% of the population pay any income tax, and they are exploited very heavily. Most of the emigrants from India are from this sector. Of the rest, some 18% work as merchants and other informal employees, and don't pay any tax. There is another 80%, which lives on the welfare benefits.

Thank you for confirming my grim macroeconomic outlook for India.

Don't buy this myopia about India improving, the facts are:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=365141.msg6629971#msg6629971

[bryant.coleman]

OK.. May 11th will be the last day of polling in India. Counting of the votes will start at 8:00 am, 16th May 2014. We will get an idea about the winner by around 10 am. Full results must be available by 4 pm.

[deadley]

OK.. May 11th will be the last day of polling in India. Counting of the votes will start at 8:00 am, 16th May 2014. We will get an idea about the winner by around 10 am. Full results must be available by 4 pm.

May 12th is last day of polling. and we will get winner around 2 pm. coz its parliamentary election and counting take time.

[Sindelar1938]

The Indian stock market up 700 points today
Markets are clearly factoring in a modi win

[deadley]

The Indian stock market up 700 points today
Markets are clearly factoring in a modi win

but there is fear too coz if Modi will not become PM, there will be big crash too.

[bryant.coleman]

The Indian stock market up 700 points today
Markets are clearly factoring in a modi win

Have a feeling that the market is expecting too much from Modi. He might reduce the Corporate tax and income tax, but the treasury is almost empty after almost 10 years of UPA rule. One of the options would be to bring back the money stashed in Switzerland and Cayman Islands. But it'd take a lot of time.

Note: The reason for today's rally, according to my Indian friend (works at KR Choksey, and Indian share trading company) was that two exit polls were leaked (NDTV and HT). The Indian Election Commission had banned the Exit polls, so they can't show them on TV. But the market players bribed the TV channels and got the detailed results. I'll try to get the detailed results from him.

[AnonyMint]

Have a feeling that the market is expecting too much from Modi. He might reduce the Corporate tax and income tax, but the treasury is almost empty after almost 10 years of UPA rule

If you review the data of my prior post, you see that India total debt is more than 200% of GDP. As the global economy collapses in 2016, where is corporate income going to come from?

GDP will shrink globally by 30% or so, thus debt-to-GDP ratios will increase.

If Modi fails due to this bad timing, then won't the populace return to a socialist "solution" out of desperation? Which will only make the downslide worse.

The problem is that 1/4 of India's population can't even eat without subsidies.

And the crooks who run the country go along with reforms for as long as debt is expanding and they can get their slice of the boom, but in a bust the crooks have to turn to socialism to drive up government spending so they can milk the public spending spigot.

The point of my prior post was the developing world had been in a phase of expanding debt due to the West's ZIRP which caused fixed income to chase higher yields in the emerging market debt.

This caused the "taipans" in each emerging market country to go along with "reforms" in order to receive higher bond ratings and get their slice of that free money.

But in 2016 the trend will have radically shifted and the "taipans" will revert to their former paradigm of milking the public spigot, because the free bond money will be running back to the dollar and the USA as rates rise there and the global economy turns to chaos.

Make sure you understand this, as it applies to all emerging markets.

[BitCoinDream]

The Indian stock market up 700 points today
Markets are clearly factoring in a modi win

but there is fear too coz if Modi will not become PM, there will be big crash too.

Before the result announcement market will crash. It is normal and happens before every central election, if u check the historical data. It starts reviving after the cabinet is formed. Normal trend.

[bryant.coleman]

If you review the data of my prior post, you see that India total debt is more than 200% of GDP. As the global economy collapses in 2016, where is corporate income going to come from?

According to the experts some $1.5 trillion in black money is stashed abroad by the Indians. Most of it in various tax heavens, such as Switzerland, Channel Islands, Anguilla, St Kitts and the UAE. Modi is saying that he will bring back most of it to India.

[deadley]

If you review the data of my prior post, you see that India total debt is more than 200% of GDP. As the global economy collapses in 2016, where is corporate income going to come from?

According to the experts some $1.5 trillion in black money is stashed abroad by the Indians. Most of it in various tax heavens, such as Switzerland, Channel Islands, Anguilla, St Kitts and the UAE. Modi is saying that he will bring back most of it to India.

bringing back black money never be easy even for Modi, coz mostly that money posses big corporates and political leader. who will also hold power.

[deadley]

The Indian stock market up 700 points today
Markets are clearly factoring in a modi win

but there is fear too coz if Modi will not become PM, there will be big crash too.

Before the result announcement market will crash. It is normal and happens before every central election, if u check the historical data. It starts reviving after the cabinet is formed. Normal trend.

I am not saying market will crash before the results, I am saying if Modi will not become PM then there will be huge crash in market coz market gained so much in hope of BJP/Modi government.

[bryant.coleman]

I am not saying market will crash before the results, I am saying if Modi will not become PM then there will be huge crash in market coz market gained so much in hope of BJP/Modi government.

Yes. May be a 3,000-4,000 point fall (BSE Sensex). The market had crashed by 15-20% in 2004, when the NDA lost the elections then. Something similar can happen.

[bryant.coleman]

The latest opinion poll results which we have from India (provided by Madhusudhan, Statistical analyst and psephologist ,Delhi, India):

[sgk]

The latest opinion poll results which we have from India (provided by Madhusudhan, Statistical analyst and psephologist ,Delhi, India):

Looks about right; but what are those purple and magenta areas?

[deadley]

Exit Poll survey giving 240-290 seats to NDA means Modi will be next Prime Minister of India.

[sgk]

Exit Poll survey giving 240-290 seats to NDA means Modi will be next Prime Minister of India.

Times has printed headlines today: "Ab Ki Baar, Modi Sarkaar"

[deadley]

Exit Poll survey giving 240-290 seats to NDA means Modi will be next Prime Minister of India.

Times has printed headlines today: "Ab Ki Baar, Modi Sarkaar"

Modi campaign was very successful thats why, let see how he will run govt. coz who become very popular in election, mostly do not much when in Power.

[bryant.coleman]

Looks about right; but what are those purple and magenta areas?

Purple is non-UPA, non-NDA and non-Left parties.

Magenta is the Left (includes crappy parties such as the CPM, CPI, Forward Bloc.etc).

[Sithara007]

Just 48 hours more to know who will be the next Indian prime minister.

[AnonyMint]

Just 48 hours more to know who will be the next Indian prime minister.

Non-event. The economics are already cast in stone per my upthread post.

[maurya78]

The markets are already reflecting a strong Modi-led govt

More downside than upside in the immediate term
More upside if saturday bears out the exit polls

[bryant.coleman]

Modi in power could bring India, China closer: Chinese daily

http://news.oneindia.in/international/narendra-modi-in-power-could-bring-india-china-closer-chinese-daily-1442896.html

If BJP prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi comes to power, it could bring India and China closer, says an influential state-run Chinese daily. The Global Times in a write up said that Modi was once a "practical businessman". After he became chief minister of Gujarat he established good relations with China. "A large number of Chinese enterprises invested in Gujarat, contributing to the economic development of the state. Therefore, ties between China and India may become closer under Modi's leadership," said the daily.

[bryant.coleman]

Contacted a friend in India, got some live streaming links for the election results. (Results will start pouring in from 8 am local time, i.e 2:30 am Greenwich Mean Time.

NDTV:

http://www.ndtv.com/video/live/channel/ndtv24x7

Times Now:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQbIzt-75Ik
http://live.indiatimes.com/

Headlines Today:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dsjAl2nel7o

CNN IBN:

http://ibnlive.in.com/livetv/

[bryant.coleman]

153 leads so far. NDA leading in 96 seats, and UPA leading in just 36 seats. Massive wave in favor of NDA, except in certain minority dominated pockets such as Kerala.

[goxed]

153 leads so far. NDA leading in 96 seats, and UPA leading in just 36 seats. Massive wave in favor of NDA, except in certain minority dominated pockets such as Kerala.

hmm, so did Indians eventually elect a quasi-dictator as their leader?

[bryant.coleman]

Leads are out for 542 out of the 543 seats.

NDA leading in 325 seats (BJP in 273 seats).
UPA leading in 70 seats (INC in 56 seats).

[deadley]

Leads are out for 542 out of the 543 seats.

NDA leading in 325 seats (BJP in 273 seats).
UPA leading in 70 seats (INC in 56 seats).

atleast India will get stable government, and we will see how Modi will change the destiny of India. I am still not convince he will do significant changes for India.

[bryant.coleman]

The results so far:

NDA: 336 (BJP - 284 seats)
UPA: 59 (INC - 46 seats)
ADMK: 37
TMC: 34
Others: 77

[Sithara007]

Never expected this much victory margin for the NDA. They almost got the two-thirds majority. And the Indian National Congress (which has ruled India for more than 5 decades since the independence) has been almost wiped out.

[deadley]

Never expected this much victory margin for the NDA. They almost got the two-thirds majority. And the Indian National Congress (which has ruled India for more than 5 decades since the independence) has been almost wiped out.

even Modi did not expected this kind of mandate, it is really unbelievable. BJP finished SP and BSP. BSP did not won single seat.

[newIndia]

The results so far:

NDA: 336 (BJP - 284 seats)
UPA: 59 (INC - 46 seats)
ADMK: 37
TMC: 34
Others: 77

Looks like ADMK has emerged as the 3rd largest keeping behind TMC at 4th.

[deadley]

The results so far:

NDA: 336 (BJP - 284 seats)
UPA: 59 (INC - 46 seats)
ADMK: 37
TMC: 34
Others: 77

Looks like ADMK has emerged as the 3rd largest keeping behind TMC at 4th.

it was expected from AIDMK, they were expecting 30+. and they got it .

[bryant.coleman]

Looks like ADMK has emerged as the 3rd largest keeping behind TMC at 4th.

ADMK won 37 out of the 39 seats it had contested. A win ratio of close to 95%. The NDA won the remaining two seats, leaving the DMK and INC seatless. Still, it will be interesting to know whether they would join the NDA government or not.

[deadley]

Looks like ADMK has emerged as the 3rd largest keeping behind TMC at 4th.

ADMK won 37 out of the 39 seats it had contested. A win ratio of close to 95%. The NDA won the remaining two seats, leaving the DMK and INC seatless. Still, it will be interesting to know whether they would join the NDA government or not.

I dont think they will. and another interesting thing will NDA accept them if AIDMK will want to join NDA.

[sgk]

So it looks like there is no 'Modi Wave' in South India after all. Modi even tried to attract people using Rajnikanth as a bait, but that didn't work as well.

[deadley]

So it looks like there is no 'Modi Wave' in South India after all. Modi even tried to attract people using Rajnikanth as a bait, but that didn't work as well.

Its normal for South India becoz regional parties very strong there. still BJP won some seats.

[beetcoin]

there are so many parties - can someone do an overview of what the parties that have won believe in? and if those groups are open to the adoption of bitcoin? i doubt it is so, but who knows.

[deadley]

there are so many parties - can someone do an overview of what the parties that have won believe in? and if those groups are open to the adoption of bitcoin? i doubt it is so, but who knows.

lol, I dont think any party will even talk about Bitcoin, you are talking about adoption. RBI clearly said becareful about Bitcoin for bitcoins trader.

[AnonyMint]

Running a state and the Indian federal government is not the same:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/meghabahree/2014/03/24/even-narendra-modi-may-not-be-able-to-help-the-indian-economy/

Global investment bank Credit Suisse in a new report titled “Elections: Much Ado About Nothing”, says elections will not revive an investment cycle in India. Reason: The majority of the projects that could help boost investments and the economy are stuck either because of a lack of funds, or are in an already crowded market or are awaiting approvals by state governments, and not the federal government.

Modi's economic development model (like China's) hinged on stealing land from peasants, massive debt for crony capitalists, forcing the peasants into low-wage labor industries:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/meghabahree/2014/03/12/doing-big-business-in-modis-gujarat/

Unfortunately globally there is an oversupply of both industrial capacity, industrial labor, and debt.

As I explained in upthread posts, there just isn't much fiscal, debt, and global capacity wiggle room for him to change much.

He can try to privatize and get the state out of the economy, but this pays off if the capacity exists to employ the people. Rather if he does that heading into a global conflagcollapse that I expect 2016ish, he is likely to get instead political backlash.

Thoughts?

[bryant.coleman]

So it looks like there is no 'Modi Wave' in South India after all. Modi even tried to attract people using Rajnikanth as a bait, but that didn't work as well.

NDA did well in South India. Here is the break down of the S Indian seats:

TN (+ PD + AN): Total seats 41. ADMK - 37, NDA - 4 (BJP - 2, PMK - 1, AINRC-1).

KER (+ LX): Total seats 21. UPA - 13, Left -8, NDA -0. 

Karnataka (+Goa): Total seats 30. NDA - 19 (BJP - 19), UPA - 9, JDS- 2.

Andhra: Total seats 42. NDA - 20 (TDP - 16, BJP -4). UPA - 3, TRS - 11, YSRC - 8.

So for South India, there are a total of 134 seats, of which NDA got 43 (BJP - 25). Not a bad performance.

[sgk]

So it looks like there is no 'Modi Wave' in South India after all. Modi even tried to attract people using Rajnikanth as a bait, but that didn't work as well.

NDA did well in South India. Here is the break down of the S Indian seats:

TN (+ PD + AN): Total seats 41. ADMK - 37, NDA - 4 (BJP - 2, PMK - 1, AINRC-1).

KER (+ LX): Total seats 21. UPA - 13, Left -8, NDA -0. 

Karnataka (+Goa): Total seats 30. NDA - 19 (BJP - 19), UPA - 9, JDS- 2.

Andhra: Total seats 42. NDA - 20 (TDP - 16, BJP -4). UPA - 3, TRS - 11, YSRC - 8.

So for South India, there are a total of 134 seats, of which NDA got 43 (BJP - 25). Not a bad performance.

You're right, thanks for pointing out the stats. NDA especially did well in Karnataka and Andhra.

[deadley]

So it looks like there is no 'Modi Wave' in South India after all. Modi even tried to attract people using Rajnikanth as a bait, but that didn't work as well.

NDA did well in South India. Here is the break down of the S Indian seats:

TN (+ PD + AN): Total seats 41. ADMK - 37, NDA - 4 (BJP - 2, PMK - 1, AINRC-1).

KER (+ LX): Total seats 21. UPA - 13, Left -8, NDA -0. 

Karnataka (+Goa): Total seats 30. NDA - 19 (BJP - 19), UPA - 9, JDS- 2.

Andhra: Total seats 42. NDA - 20 (TDP - 16, BJP -4). UPA - 3, TRS - 11, YSRC - 8.

So for South India, there are a total of 134 seats, of which NDA got 43 (BJP - 25). Not a bad performance.

but mostly seats from allies and about  Karnataka, last time BJP had government there Yedurappa was CM and he resigned coz of corruption charges and then yedurappa resigned from BJP too and make his party and then in assembly election he fight election alone that is the reason BJP lost election in assembly so after that yedurappa merged his party in BJP again and that is why BJP got so many seats from Karnataka.

[sgk]

Nitish Kumar just resigned. I know there was always tension between Nitish and Modi but I didn't think he would go to such heights.

[deadley]

Nitish Kumar just resigned. I know there was always tension between Nitish and Modi but I didn't think he would go to such heights.

he resigned from Bihar CM position because he  dont have full mandte and if he did not resigned then other party force him for motion and his govt. will fall.

[bryant.coleman]

Nitish Kumar just resigned. I know there was always tension between Nitish and Modi but I didn't think he would go to such heights.

Around 50 MLAs from Nitish's party are planning to break-away and form a new outfit. The BJP is planning to form the new government, with the help of these rebels. So the best option for Nitish right now is to dissolve the assembly.

[bryant.coleman]

lol... Indian markets are breaking all records. The BSE Sensex is trading at 25,000+ levels. I made the right decision to invest in Indian equities (through pink sheets). Should have invested more. 

[sgk]

lol... Indian markets are breaking all records. The BSE Sensex is trading at 25,000+ levels. I made the right decision to invest in Indian equities (through pink sheets). Should have invested more. 

HOW DARE YOU INVEST IN ANYTHING OTHER THAN BITCOIN? 

[deadley]

lol... Indian markets are breaking all records. The BSE Sensex is trading at 25,000+ levels. I made the right decision to invest in Indian equities (through pink sheets). Should have invested more. 

HOW DARE YOU INVEST IN ANYTHING OTHER THAN BITCOIN? 

lol, Bitcoin is very risky investment, and no one want to invest everything in only 1 side. simple rule for investment dont put all eggs in 1 basket. just diversify your investment and you will always be safe.

[sgk]

lol... Indian markets are breaking all records. The BSE Sensex is trading at 25,000+ levels. I made the right decision to invest in Indian equities (through pink sheets). Should have invested more. 

HOW DARE YOU INVEST IN ANYTHING OTHER THAN BITCOIN? 

lol, Bitcoin is very risky investment, and no one want to invest everything in only 1 side. simple rule for investment dont put all eggs in 1 basket. just diversify your investment and you will always be safe.

Agreed. It was only a joke. I have my own investment diversified

[waqas]

lol... Indian markets are breaking all records. The BSE Sensex is trading at 25,000+ levels. I made the right decision to invest in Indian equities (through pink sheets). Should have invested more. 

HOW DARE YOU INVEST IN ANYTHING OTHER THAN BITCOIN? 

lol, Bitcoin is very risky investment, and no one want to invest everything in only 1 side. simple rule for investment dont put all eggs in 1 basket. just diversify your investment and you will always be safe.

Agreed. It was only a joke. I have my own investment diversified

Currently investing in Indian markets is best option for investors because new government hopes and promises give some better profit to investors I am very happy with Modi is now Prime Ministry because its just a Democracy where a poor man can came PM of country

[bryant.coleman]

HOW DARE YOU INVEST IN ANYTHING OTHER THAN BITCOIN? 

A wise investor diversifies his investment. I believe in Bitcoin, but I am no fool to divert 100% of my money to the Bitcoin sector. My portfolio is a balanced and diversified one. 

[arbitrage001]

A wise investor diversifies his investment. I believe in Bitcoin, but I am no fool to divert 100% of my money to the Bitcoin sector. My portfolio is a balanced and diversified one. 

A wise investor does not invest in pink sheet.

[deadley]

A wise investor diversifies his investment. I believe in Bitcoin, but I am no fool to divert 100% of my money to the Bitcoin sector. My portfolio is a balanced and diversified one. 

A wise investor does not invest in pink sheet.

haha well said,

[goxed]

are there any Indian ADRs on pinksheets?

[AnonyMint]

Armstrong expects India's boom to continue to at least 2017:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/05/20/india/

[deadley]

Hope the new president of india never try to ban bitcoin or some exchange, so we can have the next rally .

first of all in India we elect Prime Minister, and another thing Indian govt will not say anything about Bitcoin according to them its not exist.

[sgk]

Hope the new president of india never try to ban bitcoin or some exchange, so we can have the next rally .

Mr. Narendra Modi has open mindset when it comes to technology, so it is highly improbable that he would ban cryptos.

On the contrary, he might actually start accepting them

[deadley]

Hope the new president of india never try to ban bitcoin or some exchange, so we can have the next rally .

Mr. Narendra Modi has open mindset when it comes to technology, so it is highly improbable that he would ban cryptos.

On the contrary, he might actually start accepting them

there is no chances that he will accept Bitcoin, even Reserve Bank of India already show concern about Bitctoin and said already becareful with Bitcoin trading.

[newIndia]

Hope the new president of india never try to ban bitcoin or some exchange, so we can have the next rally .

Mr. Narendra Modi has open mindset when it comes to technology, so it is highly improbable that he would ban cryptos.

On the contrary, he might actually start accepting them

there is no chances that he will accept Bitcoin, even Reserve Bank of India already show concern about Bitctoin and said already becareful with Bitcoin trading.

Asking people to be careful does not mean they are gonna ban it. They just dont wanna take any responsibility of loss that people may face by blindly investing in Bitcoin. Now a days, it has become a culture to accuse the government for anything and everything. So they are just playing safe. Moreover, one cant expect a govt to invite bitcoin with an open arm by dumping its own FIAT. Eventually bitcoin will make its own way by the laws of market economics without any support of any govt.

[bryant.coleman]

Mr. Narendra Modi has open mindset when it comes to technology, so it is highly improbable that he would ban cryptos.

On the contrary, he might actually start accepting them

A lot will depend upon who will be the next ministers for Information Technology and Finance. If tech savvy guys such as Arun Shourie and Arun Jaitley are appointed as ministers, then we can expect some pro-Bitcoin policies from the government.

[deadley]

Mr. Narendra Modi has open mindset when it comes to technology, so it is highly improbable that he would ban cryptos.

On the contrary, he might actually start accepting them

A lot will depend upon who will be the next ministers for Information Technology and Finance. If tech savvy guys such as Arun Shourie and Arun Jaitley are appointed as ministers, then we can expect some pro-Bitcoin policies from the government.

one of them will surely be Finance Minister cant say about Information Technology Minister. most  probably Jaitley will be the Finance Minister

[bryant.coleman]

one of them will surely be Finance Minister cant say about Information Technology Minister. most  probably Jaitley will be the Finance Minister

If Jaitley becomes the finance minister, then it will be good. He had earlier promised to bring down the taxes and ease the regulations. He is a tech savvy guy. So I hope that he will be pro-Bitcoin.

[E-C.Guru]

Hope the new president of india never try to ban bitcoin or some exchange, so we can have the next rally .

Mr. Narendra Modi has open mindset when it comes to technology, so it is highly improbable that he would ban cryptos.

On the contrary, he might actually start accepting them

there is no chances that he will accept Bitcoin, even Reserve Bank of India already show concern about Bitctoin and said already becareful with Bitcoin trading.

Because the bank Writes the Law, right?

[bryant.coleman]

Raghuram Rajan, the current Governor of Reserve Bank of India is a pro-Congress crook, who is extremely anti-Bitcoin. If Modi succeeds in removing him from the office, it will be a major victory for the Indian Bitcoiners.

[Swordsoffreedom]

Raghuram Rajan, the current Governor of Reserve Bank of India is a pro-Congress crook, who is extremely anti-Bitcoin. If Modi succeeds in removing him from the office, it will be a major victory for the Indian Bitcoiners.

That sounds interesting would like to see a pro Bitcoin Governor of the Reserve but I am curious as to who they would vote for if they were interested in changing their monetary policies and who controls that power. Is it appointed by the congress or the president not very aware of Indian politics myself.

[bryant.coleman]

Is it appointed by the congress or the president not very aware of Indian politics myself.

Raghuram Rajan is believed to be a close friend of P Chidambaram, the ultra-corrupt ex-finance minister of India. I hope he will be replaced by someone who is more competent.

[deadley]

Raghuram Rajan, the current Governor of Reserve Bank of India is a pro-Congress crook, who is extremely anti-Bitcoin. If Modi succeeds in removing him from the office, it will be a major victory for the Indian Bitcoiners.

its not easy to remove Raghuram Rajan, his duties for 3 yrs, so he will complete his span.

[E-C.Guru]

Bryant whats your take on foreign policys for India the coming years? I read they would still be rather unfriendly with China and that US had banned Modi earlier but now try to kiss his ass. If US pushes for further war, will he be Russia/China/BRICS friendly or go with the west?

[bryant.coleman]

Bryant whats your take on foreign policys for India the coming years? I read they would still be rather unfriendly with China and that US had banned Modi earlier but now try to kiss his ass. If US pushes for further war, will he be Russia/China/BRICS friendly or go with the west?

Modi is more inclined towards the Russia/China block, than to the US / EU block. It is evident from the number of projects he has attracted from China and Russia to his home state (Gujarat), where he has been the Chief Minister for more than a decade now.

Also, check these media articles:

How India’s foreign policy may change if Modi is PM

http://www.firstpost.com/politics/how-indias-foreign-policy-may-change-if-modi-is-pm-1447833.html

Russia, China, Japan, not US on Narendra Modi's priority list: Report

http://news.oneindia.in/international/russia-china-japan-on-narendra-modis-top-list-not-us-report-lse-1451808.html

Modi prioritizes China, Russia, Japan

http://www.indiablooms.com/ibns_new/news-details/N/1331/modi-prioritizes-china-russia-japan.html

Narendra Modi not keen about US trip, priority China, Russia, Japan

http://ibnlive.in.com/news/narendra-modi-not-keen-about-us-trip-priority-china-russia-japan/473307-37-64.html

Modi talks of strengthening ties with Russia, Japan

http://www.business-standard.com/article/politics/modi-talks-of-strengthening-ties-with-russia-japan-114051900525_1.html