BTC Sentiment Poll for September

[Leahized]

Judging by past data, September is usually a very good month for Bitcoin as it saw the beginning of bull run in 2023 and many other years. I would have been highly optimistic that this September was also gojng to be the beginning of a massive pump in price but since Bitcoin have been on the rise for most part of Augist that used to be a bear month, I'm expecting Bitcoin to be in consolidation for most part of this month. Price can continue bouncing between between $70,000 to $85,000.

This information is generally true but has been in a downward and bearish market the most in September from 2017 to 2022. However, it has ended in a bull run over the last four years, but based on this information, I do not expect a significant drop this month. Since a few days ago, the liquidity had increased very rapidly due to a large number of new investors in ETFs and bitcoin. After that, we quickly reached 79k.

However, speculation always relies on assumptions. Since a new month has just started, it is best to wait for any changes that may come and act accordingly.

[pawel7777]

The price took the opposite direction to what I was expecting
Bitcoin is up by over 5% in the last 24h. I'm hearing this is mostly due to the easing of interest rate hike expectations, i.e., the expectation that rates won't go up. I'm just catching up on the latest news, so I have no idea if this is correct. I thought inflation was on the rise globally and therefore rates were also set to go up in many countries, so I'm not sure what is the source of the positivity in the market.

I see Strategy resumed buying after a series of sales. On Monday, they bought $370m at $80,318 per bitcoin. Selling cheap and buying back at a higher price is not the best strategy, but it sends a positive signal to the market.

[STT]

Very nice, I think its due to worries in the wider market.  Yen vs USD with lower dollar value is making alternatives more attractive right now.    The burst higher timing but also placement is quite bullish I think and expected to some extent.   We had been trading below the yearly average or 50 week average roughly, that doesnt have to matter and in time its been exceeded as it should be.   Also this price gain puts us past weekly and monthly average all together with good volume its a good move for sure.

  No doubt in future across this month the rise will have to be confirmed but that's normal and ok and still makes us bullish for this month hence I was bold enough to vote now rather then later for that poll choice.   Because its a weekly bar and still we got 3 days for that to alter, BTC price has to or ideally has to stay above 80k aprox, so the positivity may be moderated some we'll see.

[bbc.reporter]

The pump yesterday might have convinced much of the people, however, there are still challenges and difficulties on September 15! The Clarity act voting passage and the speculation on the increase of interest rates can change this bullish mood!

I have voted yes, however. My feelings are very vigorously positive I am very much afraid that my head is correct on being bearish!

Also, this news article is convincing that the bull market is here!



Bitcoin is on track to flash one of the oldest bullish signals in financial markets. While its record on predictability is mixed, the impending one has backing from the none other than USDT, the world's largest dollar-pegged stablecoin by market value.

That signal is the golden cross. It happens when a short-term average of an asset's price, calculated over the last 50 days, rises above the average price over the last 200 days. It indicates that recent momentum has outpaced the broader trend, often marking a prolonged shift to a bullish trend.

Since 2012, bitcoin has formed this exact pattern, the 50-day average crossing above the 200-day average, 12 separate times.

Three of them delivered big, sustained gains. The first, on Feb. 9, 2012, was followed by a 306% gain over the next year. One in October 2015 stayed intact for over two years and rode bitcoin to what was then a record high near $19,800 in December 2017. Another in May 2020 gained 312% over the following year, with bitcoin later touching nearly $64,900.

Whether the coming cross lasts is anybody’s guess. One other market measure, however, is moving in a direction usually associated with rising crypto prices.

USDT dominance measures the value of all tether in circulation as a share of the total crypto market. A falling USDT dominance often signals risk-on behavior: capital is rotating out of the “cash-like” stablecoin and into bitcoin and other cryptos. But because dominance is a ratio, it can also drop simply if risk assets rally faster than stablecoin supply, even if no one is actually leaving USDT.

Historically, swings in USDT dominance have marked major trend changes in BTC. For instance, the dominance rate formed a golden cross in November last year and then surged, as BTC began falling.

And that ratio is now approaching a death cross of its own, with its 50-day average set to fall below the 200-day average, TradingView data show. Traders generally read a sustained decline in USDT dominance as a risk-on signal because a larger share of the crypto market’s value is sitting outside stablecoins.

Read in ful https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/09/03/bitcoin-s-fabled-golden-cross-is-coming-and-usdt-may-be-the-real-signal-this-time

[cocadalcan]

As the price of Bitcoin continues to rise, many prominent investors are predicting that the price of Bitcoin will exceed $250k - $300k within the next 4 years. The price of Bitcoin has increased by more than 23% in the last 1 month and by more than 30% in the last 1 year.
The price of Bitcoin is increasing, which has created a better potential than the last 2 months, but I fear that the price will probably fall again. Experienced investors believe that the FED is probably considering keeping interest rates unchanged, so the price of Bitcoin is likely to increase further this month.

[adultcrypto]

I have never been as confused about any month than I am with this September and that only shows how much the market have changed over the years. When price pumped in August instead of dumping that characterized the month of August for the past few years, I was then thinking that such moves will cover the September rise that we have been experiencing the past few years as well. But this week is proving otherwise with price hitting $81,000. This shows that price is poised to seeking more highs which is a sign that the last quarter of this year may end close to or above $100,000.

[DanWalker]

The price took the opposite direction to what I was expecting
Bitcoin is up by over 5% in the last 24h. I'm hearing this is mostly due to the easing of interest rate hike expectations, i.e., the expectation that rates won't go up. I'm just catching up on the latest news, so I have no idea if this is correct. I thought inflation was on the rise globally and therefore rates were also set to go up in many countries, so I'm not sure what is the source of the positivity in the market.

That looks like the biggest news today, and I think its the main reason behind Bitcoin's move up today.

Fed has suddenly shifted its stance, and there's a good chance they'll hold rates instead of hiking them like people were expecting before. Right now, the odds are basically 50/50, compared with 60/40 last week. However, everything still depends on August CPI, which comes out next week.

Bitcoin and the broader financial market are still moving up, but most of this rally seems to be driven by news. So I'm worried this rally might not last much longer.


x. com

[pawel7777]

If the drop in the probability of an interest rate rise was the main factor behind the mini-rally, then no wonder we are falling back below the $80k.
Especially if keeping rates at the current level (instead of increasing them) is more of a political decision rather than a purely economic one. I believe the CPI inflation to be announced is expected to increase. If the rise is not trivial, it would make sense if interest rates followed in the same direction.

Today we had a bit of a reality check. The price went down by 2.2% in the last 24h. S&P and Nasdaq also noted a dip, but it was much smaller.
The long-term bear trend is still in effect I guess.

[SatsPH]

Today we had a bit of a reality check. The price went down by 2.2% in the last 24h. S&P and Nasdaq also noted a dip, but it was much smaller.
The long-term bear trend is still in effect I guess.

And the cycle still continues or holds true as we are still in the bear market. Others are saying that we are out of it and very excited when we see $81k. But then it dip again, going into another correction.

So yeah, not just the long term bear market trend, it is the cycle itself and hasn't been broken. There was even a thread about the curse of September. But then again, if the cycle is in effect, then there is no stopping the price from going down and maybe we will still see lower lows along the way until the halving.

[Orpichukwu]

Bear market: we are not yet off it. I used to be among those who believed that once we hit below $60k during the time Bitcoin value was gradually dropping, we were fully in the bear market, and if we go above $70k, the bull is back, but my narrative has changed. Now, I can say we are partially moving away from the bear market, which is why I voted for maybe, but until the price settles above $90k, we won’t be in a hurry to celebrate the bull anytime soon.

[Ndabagi01]

Bear market: we are not yet off it. I used to be among those who believed that once we hit below $60k during the time Bitcoin value was gradually dropping, we were fully in the bear market, and if we go above $70k, the bull is back, but my narrative has changed. Now, I can say we are partially moving away from the bear market, which is why I voted for maybe, but until the price settles above $90k, we won’t be in a hurry to celebrate the bull anytime soon.

The market is very tricky and the all time high of bitcoin was above $100K. For me to be fully convinced that the market is now in a bull run, it may have crossed and ready to hold the market price above $100K. All of this movement and spike that has been happening of recent hasn’t been that convincing because Bitcoin can tomorrow still come back and drop rapidly and possibly trade below $70k again. This is something it does and can happen at anytime. For now, I’m still observant of the market and may not be able to tell possibly where this market will lead us by the end of the month.

[sergiorus]

The price took the opposite direction to what I was expecting
Bitcoin is up by over 5% in the last 24h. I'm hearing this is mostly due to the easing of interest rate hike expectations, i.e., the expectation that rates won't go up. I'm just catching up on the latest news, so I have no idea if this is correct. I thought inflation was on the rise globally and therefore rates were also set to go up in many countries, so I'm not sure what is the source of the positivity in the market.

That looks like the biggest news today, and I think its the main reason behind Bitcoin's move up today.

Fed has suddenly shifted its stance, and there's a good chance they'll hold rates instead of hiking them like people were expecting before. Right now, the odds are basically 50/50, compared with 60/40 last week. However, everything still depends on August CPI, which comes out next week.

Bitcoin and the broader financial market are still moving up, but most of this rally seems to be driven by news. So I'm worried this rally might not last much longer.


x. com

Politically speaking, hiking rates just before the midterms is like showing a middle finger to the current administration. Nobody would do that in their sane mind unless it's absolutely necessary.

They all still have at least a couple of years to work together, I believe nobody there is willing to show such disrespect.

But of course they are always open to feed some fear food to the mass media, that's another counterparty they'd like to stay in good relationship with.

[dwyane36]

The market is very tricky and the all time high of bitcoin was above $100K. For me to be fully convinced that the market is now in a bull run, it may have crossed and ready to hold the market price above $100K. All of this movement and spike that has been happening of recent hasn’t been that convincing because Bitcoin can tomorrow still come back and drop rapidly and possibly trade below $70k again. This is something it does and can happen at anytime. For now, I’m still observant of the market and may not be able to tell possibly where this market will lead us by the end of the month.

As long as BTC remains below the critical resistance level in the $80-82k range, it’s too early to talk about a bullish trend. Well, after the bulls’ latest failed attempt to break through this level, I’m honestly becoming increasingly convinced that September will most likely close with a red candle rather than a green one.

[DanWalker]

Politically speaking, hiking rates just before the midterms is like showing a middle finger to the current administration. Nobody would do that in their sane mind unless it's absolutely necessary.

They all still have at least a couple of years to work together, I believe nobody there is willing to show such disrespect.

But of course they are always open to feed some fear food to the mass media, that's another counterparty they'd like to stay in good relationship with.

What I do know is that the Fed is an independent body separate from politics, and its job is to set monetary policy based on the economy, inflation and employment, not to please an admin or serve the political interests of any president.
If that were not the case, Powell would have cut rates a long time ago.

Nonfarm data is out, and the Fed has a reason to raise rates. If August CPI spikes, I dont believe they would recklessly refuse to hike rates just because of Trump, since that could push the economy into a recession.

[pooya87]

We are still in the sideway market with a tendency to make another small jump to the next 10k range (enter the range between $90k and $100k). Can we call that exiting bear market? Yeah!

People are losing faith in fiat and due to all the inflation and economic hardship they are seeking solid investments that can act as a store of value. So technically bitcoin price should rise up as more people continue buying more of it.

But at the same time the economic hardship includes recession and people have an increasingly more difficult time to make ends meet. That means they already had little to no money to invest, and now they may start thinking about liquidating some stuff to cover the costs of their livings that keeps on rising.

We just have to figure out which side of these two opposing forces are stronger (this is why we are in a sideways market anyway instead of bull or bear). For now the buy side is stronger.

[Out of mind]

So it really feels like everybody was happy about the last minute rally in BTC so I changed the poll into a simpler one since copying the one from August and July won't really suit the current market condition.

And again...  The poll isn't about getting it right.  It's how you honestly feel rn. 

Here's the monthly chart.  BTC up almost 25% for August.

The price of Bitcoin has changed a lot in August and everyone is happy to see such a performance. The price of Bitcoin has increased rapidly. In August, the market has increased by 25%, so we are waiting to see more increase in the price of Bitcoin in September. I think the market will soon move forward with a better change as we have been in a low position for a long time and then the market is moving towards the high. The market touched $82k in that case, although the market has now come down a little, but we can expect that Bitcoin will exceed $90k in this September itself. And if it can exceed $90k within this month, then the Bitcoin market has the highest possibility of going beyond $100k in 2026.

[DPHOR]

I simply go with the options 'NO' because before we talked about bear market over, the price of Bitcoin must at least get to 100k or the previous ATH at the moment before we can assumed the bear market to be over. As far as we still remains under 100k the market bear market is not over yet, so even this month Bitcoin can't break out from 100k and before this could happen we should be expecting it around December, or at least the first Quarter of next year. Which is, 2027 (January -March) that is when we could be expecting it. Currently the market is just trying to gain back its position to the previous ATH.

[sergiorus]

Politically speaking, hiking rates just before the midterms is like showing a middle finger to the current administration. Nobody would do that in their sane mind unless it's absolutely necessary.

They all still have at least a couple of years to work together, I believe nobody there is willing to show such disrespect.

But of course they are always open to feed some fear food to the mass media, that's another counterparty they'd like to stay in good relationship with.

What I do know is that the Fed is an independent body separate from politics, and its job is to set monetary policy based on the economy, inflation and employment, not to please an admin or serve the political interests of any president.
If that were not the case, Powell would have cut rates a long time ago.

Nonfarm data is out, and the Fed has a reason to raise rates. If August CPI spikes, I dont believe they would recklessly refuse to hike rates just because of Trump, since that could push the economy into a recession.

Yeah, yeah. Fed is independent, banks are independent, no one is lobbying anything, no one is conspiring and most importantly no one has any interest outside their workplace...Sure, if you choose to believe that - go ahead.

Reality is, in all of the history, there were only four times when the rates were hiked right before the midterms and all of them except for the one in 2018 were absolutely necessary, and in 2018 it was exactly what I mentioned before - a middle finger to the Trump's administartion. But that was different Fed too. I'd say it's a little unreasonable to expect the same from Warsh and his men.

[Pandu Geddon]

I simply go with the options 'NO' because before we talked about bear market over, the price of Bitcoin must at least get to 100k or the previous ATH at the moment before we can assumed the bear market to be over.

Is this an indicator to signify that we are exiting the bearish market? The market began to decline at the end of last year. Although it has not yet indicated that we have seen Bitcoin move to $100k or more, the growth occurring at present is quite good. We may not have moved into a bullish market yet, but we might have already passed the lowest price point. Let us see how the end of this quarter turns out; perhaps we can observe something positive in the market.

[avp2306]

We are still in the sideway market with a tendency to make another small jump to the next 10k range (enter the range between $90k and $100k). Can we call that exiting bear market? Yeah!

People are losing faith in fiat and due to all the inflation and economic hardship they are seeking solid investments that can act as a store of value. So technically bitcoin price should rise up as more people continue buying more of it.

But at the same time the economic hardship includes recession and people have an increasingly more difficult time to make ends meet. That means they already had little to no money to invest, and now they may start thinking about liquidating some stuff to cover the costs of their livings that keeps on rising.

We just have to figure out which side of these two opposing forces are stronger (this is why we are in a sideways market anyway instead of bull or bear). For now the buy side is stronger.

Correct and this is what we are experiencing now. Sorry to disappoint people but, those bull run that they are saying is not yet happening now. But its good that we see Bitcoin climb back at $80k since that means those pumps to $90k and $100k is now possible.

Many people truly lose their trust on fiat and inflation is the primary factor why people choose to find another best asset to diversify.

Although even if there's recession and financial hardships happening, many people try to find another good alternative asset to invest or to be their safe haven. This is the reason why Bitcoin gain to much exposure and volume when there's crisis happening.

This article also tackle up the key event in history that shape Bitcoin to be a good asset https://www.cointracker.com/blog/bitcoin-price-history