is bitcoin really cursed every september?

[Natalim]

I just read this topic about the so-called Red September

Since 2013, Bitcoin has ended September in red 8 out of 13 times, with an average return of around -2.97%. So based on the historical stats, September has not really been a good month for Bitcoin.

Of course, this is not guaranteed. Last September was actually positive, so we already know that this pattern can still be broken.

What I find more interesting is whether this pattern itself affects trader behavior. If many traders already expect September to be bearish, some may take profit early, reduce exposure, or delay buying. If enough people do that, maybe the belief in “Red September” partly helps create the weakness we expect.

So based on the trend, do you think this September is also going to be bad for Bitcoin even after a strong August? Or is “Red September” just a historical coincidence that traders are giving too much importance to?


here's the historical record from 2013 to last year sept

| Year | September return |
| ---- | ---------------: |
| 2013 |           -1.76% |
| 2014 |          -19.01% |
| 2015 |           +2.35% |
| 2016 |           +6.04% |
| 2017 |           -7.44% |
| 2018 |           -5.58% |
| 2019 |          -13.38% |
| 2020 |           -7.51% |
| 2021 |           -7.03% |
| 2022 |           -3.12% |
| 2023 |           +3.91% |
| 2024 |           +7.29% |
| 2025 |           +5.16% |

[hugeblack]

I think the last 4-6 years are more accurate than calculations dating back to 2013, and relying solely on historical data, a 3% decline is the most likely scenario. Generally, relying solely on historical data while ignoring stronger indicators like interest rates will lead to inaccurate predictions.

[Majestic-milf]

 Maybe this time will be different. Last year wasn't that bad as Bitcoin closed the month of September at $114,056.08, so there's every chance that this little surge we experienced about a week ago will affect September. It's normal to be sceptic and wary considering the history behind this month but you can't call yourself a bitcoiner if you don't take risks.

[Natalim]

I think the last 4-6 years are more accurate than calculations dating back to 2013, and relying solely on historical data, a 3% decline is the most likely scenario. Generally, relying solely on historical data while ignoring stronger indicators like interest rates will lead to inaccurate predictions.

I agree that recent data and indicators like interest rates matter more, but honestly, I don't think a 3% decline would automatically happen just because that's the historical average. For me, the September data is more of a pattern to watch than a real basis for prediction.

[goldkingcoiner]

Maybe this time will be different. Last year wasn't that bad as Bitcoin closed the month of September at $114,056.08, so there's every chance that this little surge we experienced about a week ago will affect September. It's normal to be sceptic and wary considering the history behind this month but you can't call yourself a bitcoiner if you don't take risks.

I would not believe in any curses or such.

Sure things might go differently and they might not. It is all a question of not if but when and nobody can make a 100% accurate prediction on the price action anyway. What if, what if? What if some "genius" world leader makes a bad decision which leads to a world ending war? At some point you have admit that you can only be certain of how you feel now. And that feeling has the potential to change every time you look at the chart.

What is important that you do not let the price volatility influence you into making a decision (that just sounds like a sure-fire way to lose all your money by flip-flopping on trades and grinding it all away with trading fees. ).

[Hatchy]

Of course, this is not guaranteed. Last September was actually positive, so we already know that this pattern can still be broken.

The last three Septembers have actually been positive, and that's why I don't pay too much attention to this kind of historical data. It can be useful for context, but it can also be unreliable at times.

I think the last 4-6 years are more accurate than calculations dating back to 2013, and relying solely on historical data, a 3% decline is the most likely scenario. Generally, relying solely on historical data while ignoring stronger indicators like interest rates will lead to inaccurate predictions.

That true..We often pay too much attention to historical patterns while ignoring what is happening in the market right now. Like I always say, even if the 4 year cycle isn't broken, the Bitcoin market from five years ago is not the same as it is today.Economic conditions, interest rates, liquidity, institutional participation, ETFs, and many other factors that influence price have changed significantly since previous cycles. We should be willing to adapt and consider these new factors when using historical data to make predictions. Historical patterns are useful, but they shouldn't become a reason to ignore current market conditions. These kinds of narratives can also create unnecessary FUD in the market, when taken too seriously..

[stadus]

Maybe this time will be different. Last year wasn't that bad as Bitcoin closed the month of September at $114,056.08, so there's every chance that this little surge we experienced about a week ago will affect September. It's normal to be sceptic and wary considering the history behind this month but you can't call yourself a bitcoiner if you don't take risks.

Things have changed, so if I want to predict based on the trend, I would still consider the current situation and what has developed in the past few years.

But since Bitcoin is really unpredictable, it's hard to predict it correctly. For me, it's better to look at the yearly performance because monthly performance is not always reliable. There are months where Bitcoin is negative, but the overall year still ends positive.

At this point, if I have to follow a trend, I would rather give more weight to last year's performance than to much older years when September was negative.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

2023-25 is historically a good year to us, or at least it was it was in the last 3 years. So I we can say that September is not a curse. It will be if all the years are in red and it might continue up to this year as we are already -2%.

But the correction is not that big though. Meaning we can still recover from that and who knows, maybe at the end of the month it will be green. And if that happens, then the reversal is happening and we can say that September is making a huge U-turn and turning out to be positive.

[PostQuantumBTC]

I think the last 4-6 years are more accurate than calculations dating back to 2013, and relying solely on historical data, a 3% decline is the most likely scenario. Generally, relying solely on historical data while ignoring stronger indicators like interest rates will lead to inaccurate predictions.

The month is already somehow discouraging as if bitcoin may fall more but the month has not ended, maybe there would be a reversal. In few days we are going to know what will happen.

The interest rate has long time correlation with bitcoin price but it is not the cause of bitcoin price that is increasing, there are more other reasons which is not about interest rate at all. No matter where the interest rate is going, this will not affect the price of bitcoin after many months or 2 or 3 years have been attained.

[Zaguru12]

I think the last 4-6 years are more accurate than calculations dating back to 2013, and relying solely on historical data, a 3% decline is the most likely scenario. Generally, relying solely on historical data while ignoring stronger indicators like interest rates will lead to inaccurate predictions.

This is exactly true and to confirm this we can simply look at the monthly ends of this year alone. Prior to this year the worst months are March, August, September and December, all of this months since that same 2013 that OP has mentioned have ended in bearish conditions 8 or 7 times out of the possible 13 times but this year alone the two months in this category (March and September) which have passed have both ended in greens which means they defy this historical trends, in fact August is the month with the best monthly returns this year.

Yes we can all agree on two things bitcoin still follows the historical four year cycle but it’s not following the monthly returns accordingly like in the past years and this is actually expected due to the fact that the economy is changing with this like interest rates changes.

[adultcrypto]

The data you have shared does not suggest that of curse but something passing through a process. If we check the data closely, you will see that bitcoin have been making remarkable progress from 2022 till date because from then it has experienced positive change every other September. I don't see how something like this will be regarded as being cursed in the month of September. In my opinion, September is mostly a good month for bitcoin and I don't think that is going to change this year. 

[Obim34]

is bitcoin really cursed every september?

Cursed means it keeps occurring and reoccurring following every year that comes by since Bitcoin was created, from your chat, it doesn't feel that way, in the last three years, it says Bitcoin was on the + pattern, 2015 and 2016 Bitcoin was also positive.

I'm still trying to connect the dots on why you think September has a curse on Bitcoin, I don't see it.

[Cryptoprincess101]

So based on the trend, do you think this September is also going to be bad for Bitcoin even after a strong August? Or is “Red September” just a historical coincidence that traders are giving too much importance to?

It's not as if the price of bitcoin is prone to always finish in red in every September. Just as you saw in the chart, the red September months is higher than the green September month but in the past 3 years you will see that September months have been ending in green, this is to show that there's a shift from how it used to be because for the past 3 years the price has maintained an uptrend but looking at this year, from the beginning of January till now, it is only in the month of August that the market experienced a bullish move. So, how sure are we that the rest of the month will be bullish after the uptrend that happened towards the end of August?
       I don't have any optimism that the month of September will end in green even without making a comparison with past price historical records for the month of September but if it later ends in green there will be likelihood that the rest of the months will be green too. For the fact that August finished green doesn't mean that September will follow suit. After all, in the historical data you will see some month of August that ended green but September went red.

[danherbias07]

I don't really believe in bad luck or curses, but I do believe that there's an explanation for this. It could be something that has to do with preparing for quarter 4. If you do check the October Bitcoin history, you will see drastic changes in the value of Bitcoin.

October 2021, it almost reached an all-time high of above $60 thousand.
At the start of October 2025 is where it reached an all-time high of $126 thousand.

But Bitcoin is volatile. We don't know if it is going to be bad for the month of September now. Probably a sluggish one, but the last week of it could be exciting.

[Sim_card]

I think that after seeing a surge in bitcoin price last month, the price can face correction this month which might make me believe that September is a red month for bitcoin based on what history has proven. It's clear that the odd of bitcoin in a red gown is higher than in a green gown. Though, past records doesn't guarantee the future performance.

[Asiska02]

Tracing the marker way back to 2013 really won’t translate to what we should expect from the market this September. From the historical data you’ve shared, there are some years that there was no decline and we saw some percentage increase in the price, that’s shows that it is not really consistent even though in your post it says it has declined 8 out of 13 times in the last 13 years. There should be other factors we look into for this, the market may not continue to be like this, this month may come differently and should not really be a surprise based on how the market is trailing now.

[OgNasty]

I wouldn't say that Bitcoin is cursed every September.  It is unfortunate that September falls right before the traditional 4 year cycle low, but the other years it probably just suffers from the season.  No tax return buying in September, no holiday bonuses, etc.  It just isn't a great time of year for investment overall.  Sort of where the 'sell in May and stay away' line comes from.  I wouldn't look too much into it though.  Long term it is a nothing burger.

[Charles-Tim]

If bitcoin is cursed every September, 2023, 2024 and 2025 supposed not to be positive for bitcoin, but bitcoin increased in price in the three years.

Although, there were months of more price fall, but at least there are Septembers that bitcoin increased. If bitcoin fall this time, that will not change the fact that there will be another bull market that will make bitcoin increase above $100000 and get to all-time high.

I think the discussion should be more about accumulating than determining if September will be good or bad.

[9ja Amaka]

8 out of 13 times, it is a difference of 3. It is not enough reason to believe September is cursed.

The September curse narrative is due to the bad market in 2017 and 2022. A true curse happens consistently, not a few times.

The psychology of some Bitcoiners is the reason why people believe it's a curse. It's just a narrative to explain bad luck. But some people take it seriously, believing it's a curse. Curses are spiritual problems. Bitcoin is too technical to be cursed.

[RGBTC]

I don't know if it's a curse on the BTC price itself or a curse on traders who ramp up leverage, overconfident that every September will be a "red" month. Yet, looking at historical price action, BTC has actually shattered that perception several times in recent years.
As for the visualization, whether it's a chart curse or a portfolio curse, the two don't always go hand in hand.