Supercycle vibes are back

[buwaytress]

What do you think: is the Supercycle idea still on the table? Or, if we don't see a lower low this year, are cycles simply becoming less volatile? I'm still undecided.

If there was one thing the last cycle convinced me, it was that the cycle as we know it is over. I'm never black/white about these things, of course, but it's really hard for me to ignore that every ATH has been in decreasing magnitudes.

So for the sake of proving myself wrong once more, and some nostalgia sprinkled in, I'd love for another supercycle. One that exceeds 200% of our current ATH. To my simple "logic", however, this requires a much lower low, and I'd love to see that too!

[goldkingcoiner]

What do you think: is the Supercycle idea still on the table? Or, if we don't see a lower low this year, are cycles simply becoming less volatile? I'm still undecided.

If there was one thing the last cycle convinced me, it was that the cycle as we know it is over. I'm never black/white about these things, of course, but it's really hard for me to ignore that every ATH has been in decreasing magnitudes.

So for the sake of proving myself wrong once more, and some nostalgia sprinkled in, I'd love for another supercycle. One that exceeds 200% of our current ATH. To my simple "logic", however, this requires a much lower low, and I'd love to see that too!

It does feel like the end of a bear market to me, but then again I am very suspicious of how short the bear market was this time. It never usually is this short so I would not be surprised if we had another dump before gradually rising again. But I am not complaining. Earlier than expected bull cycle is just what we need. All the time... 

[sergiorus]

What do you think: is the Supercycle idea still on the table? Or, if we don't see a lower low this year, are cycles simply becoming less volatile? I'm still undecided.

If there was one thing the last cycle convinced me, it was that the cycle as we know it is over. I'm never black/white about these things, of course, but it's really hard for me to ignore that every ATH has been in decreasing magnitudes.

So for the sake of proving myself wrong once more, and some nostalgia sprinkled in, I'd love for another supercycle. One that exceeds 200% of our current ATH. To my simple "logic", however, this requires a much lower low, and I'd love to see that too!

It does feel like the end of a bear market to me, but then again I am very suspicious of how short the bear market was this time. It never usually is this short so I would not be surprised if we had another dump before gradually rising again. But I am not complaining. Earlier than expected bull cycle is just what we need. All the time... 

Why should it be as long as the previous ones if the last bull run didn't bring anywhere as many gains as the previous ones?

There hasn't been an altcoin season since 2021 either. The whole thing got twisted, too many historical patterns and fractals were proven not to work anymore. Either the cycles got different or we're in a super cycle or they no longer exist at all (except maybe somewhat aligned with the business cycles).

In any of the cases it makes no sense to take any historical data too seriously anymore.

[d5000]

Could be another challenge for BTC to dismantle this pillar of the cycle theory and historical patterns. If we really take new ATH in 2026, there would probably nothing left to base the further price action predictions on. Historically speaking I mean.

Well, a rule I think could be still valid for some time is: "new ATH within a year of a halving".

We had it in:
late 2012 -> February/March 2013
June 2016 -> March/April 2017
May 2020 -> November/December 2020
April 2024 -> November 2024 (there was already a previous ATH in March 2024)

So all we'd need would be a single ATH in the year 2028 or early 2029. It wouldn't matter if we see another ATH before ... so it is even compatible with Supercycles

And this rule would even have a good explanation: halvings tend to remember Bitcoiners/investors about the limited supply, and thus could be indeed a demand booster, at least for some weeks.

To be fair, this topic has been posted when we weremid $60k-ish I think?

As far as I remember it was in the high 70s (first pic shows a 78k weekly price).

[buwaytress]

So for the sake of proving myself wrong once more, and some nostalgia sprinkled in, I'd love for another supercycle. One that exceeds 200% of our current ATH. To my simple "logic", however, this requires a much lower low, and I'd love to see that too!

It does feel like the end of a bear market to me, but then again I am very suspicious of how short the bear market was this time. It never usually is this short so I would not be surprised if we had another dump before gradually rising again. But I am not complaining. Earlier than expected bull cycle is just what we need. All the time... 

It doesn't for me at all but it must be reminded that I only say this with the weakest of actual evidence as I have quite long ago left the scene and kept up -- instead I rely on the barest of anecdotes. If I get a sense that there are more people hurting: if I read that miners are exhausted to keep up, if I see that holders are gritting their teeth, then I know there is pain, and all layers of the network are feeling the squeeze.

I have not felt that yet. Not even close to the despair of the past bears. That tells me more is yet to come and we haven't had our resolve tested in this cycle.

If, at all, there is a cycle the way we recognise it!

[Asuspawer09]

At these point it was really different from the other years, it feels like anything could just happened in a blink of an eye, I personally think that the market could still drop a huge percentage in the market, but looking how the market is doing it was easily recovering from it's loses from the pass drop so we could maybe expect that the price is never going to go down anymore since there were huge foundation already at the bottom simple because Bitcoin was adopted in a lot of things theses days, we could even see it on banks etc.

Still I wouldn't say anything that is guaranteed, it is just impossible to predict these days the best thing to do is just to position because at any moment we could skyrocket to more than a 100k$ or vise versa drop down to 30k$.

[naikturun]

I think that’s a very plausible scenario. If the 2025–26 drawdown really was more like an intermediate correction than a traditional bear market, then we could still be inside a broader bullish supercycle.
The interesting part is the duration and depth. A roughly 9-month decline with a ~54% drawdown looks much closer to the 2021-style correction than the deeper 2019–20 bear. If the late-August move marked the beginning of a new accumulation/expansion phase, the market structure could look very different from previous cycles.
Of course, it’s still 50/50 for me. We could already have seen the cycle low, but we could also get another major correction before the next sustained leg up. If institutions continue accumulating and liquidity improves, the “supercycle” thesis becomes increasingly interesting.

[d5000]

We could already have seen the cycle low, but we could also get another major correction before the next sustained leg up.

For me the probability for such a move gets lower and lower. The fact that in the last week we managed to get higher highs than in the last spike in May, is very promising and shows that people are willing to pay more than back then, even considering the "expected" cycle low.

I just saw a comparative chart of the last bear markets in another thread:

image by bitcoin magazine

We see that in all previous bear markets, there were of course ups and downs, but the highest "late bear" spike was always lower than the "mid-bear" spike.

This indicates a massive sentiment shift. If we really still see a lower low in late 2026, I think there must be a strong reason for it.

There is one option more on the table for the bears: a long sideways markets (even with spikes up to ~100k) with further decline in 2027. For me this is the most likely (mid term) bearish option right now, it looks far more likely now than the "late 2026 cyclic dip" option. It would also be an "invalidation" of the traditional 4-year-cycle, but instead of a bullish supercycle it would be a bearish supercycle.

Nevertheless, I think the probability is less than for the bullish supercycle or the "normal bear market with shallow drawdown".

Probabilities are for me:

- Bullish supercycle with higher highs than 126k in 2026, 2027 or 2028, but before 2029: 40%
- Shallow bear market: no new highs before 2029: 30%
- Bearish supercycle: lower low in 2027 or 2028: 20%
- Late 2026 bearish dip: 10%