Bitcoin value fall and Mt Gox

[hucker]

Why are bitcoins (and every other coin) falling in value so much since Mt Gox?  I thought the whole idea of bitcoins was you don't use banks!  Why was anyone storing large amounts in Mt Gox?  You store them on your computer, or on a USB key which you can lock in a safe, put under the mattress, or put in a safety deposit box, and make multiple copies of.  The most I put in an exchange is about 50 quid, and only then it's very temporary until I change it to something else and withdraw.

[atp1916]

Mainstream services must be integrated into current merchant hardware/software infrastructures ie: POS integration using bitcoin "debit" cards.  The algorithm must tap out and stabilized value spread out at the mBTC levels.  Network transaction thoroughput must be greatly improved.  Tax compliance issues must be worked out.  The Chinese must be booted from the market.

In short, Bitcoin is not quite capable of mainstream market adoption...yet.  Thanks to all of the institutional capital flowing in, it will be.. soon.

Read http://newsbtc.com/2014/03/24/secondmarket-ceo-barry-silbert-meeting-institutional-investors-regarding-bitcoin/

That being said, Bitcoin will not ever replace banks.  Bitcoin will however make obsolete the entire payment processor sector.  



My personal rant:
Libertarians and anarchists think Bitcoin is theirs as a weapon to "stick it to the man".  Guess what, it ain't, and it won't ever be.  It is not some revolutionary Che Guevara style tool to bring about some banking "french revolution" or the government.  It isn't some social demographic leveling device that brings the rich down to rags, the banks to their knees, or the government crying for mercy.  In fact, those who think of Bitcoin as any of the above need to just grow up, accept the fact that there are rules out there, and learn to be a productive member of society.

[hucker]

Mainstream services must be integrated into current merchant hardware/software infrastructures ie: POS integration using bitcoin "debit" cards.  The algorithm must tap out and stabilized value spread out at the mBTC levels.  Network transaction thoroughput must be greatly improved.  Tax compliance issues must be worked out.  The Chinese must be booted from the market.

In short, Bitcoin is not quite capable of mainstream market adoption...yet.  Thanks to all of the institutional capital flowing in, it will be.. soon.

Read http://newsbtc.com/2014/03/24/secondmarket-ceo-barry-silbert-meeting-institutional-investors-regarding-bitcoin/

That doesn't explain why there was a sudden drop in the previously stable Bitcoin value when Mt Gox went under.

That being said, Bitcoin will not ever replace banks.  Bitcoin will however make obsolete the entire payment processor sector.  

My personal rant:
Libertarians and anarchists think Bitcoin is theirs as a weapon to "stick it to the man".  Guess what, it ain't, and it won't ever be.  It is not some revolutionary Che Guevara style tool to bring about some banking "french revolution" or the government.  It isn't some social demographic leveling device that brings the rich down to rags, the banks to their knees, or the government crying for mercy.  In fact, those who think of Bitcoin as any of the above need to just grow up, accept the fact that there are rules out there, and learn to be a productive member of society.

I don't understand your rant.  Maybe we will still need banks, but bitcoin will certainly remove a lot of it, and the government's meddling in it.

[LMGTFY]

That doesn't explain why there was a sudden drop in the previously stable Bitcoin value when Mt Gox went under.

Compared to the drop from the ATH to under USD400 in December 2013 the February-March 2014 period does look fairly stable. Around USD600 just prior to MtGox folding, and around USD450 now. A drop, admittedly, but proportionately smaller than the December drop (and other, similar drops from previous ATHs).

[hucker]

Compared to the drop from the ATH to under USD400 in December 2013 the February-March 2014 period does look fairly stable. Around USD600 just prior to MtGox folding, and around USD450 now. A drop, admittedly, but proportionately smaller than the December drop (and other, similar drops from previous ATHs).

I don't know what an ATH is and I can't find it on Google.

So what caused the Dec 2013 drop?

[LMGTFY]

Compared to the drop from the ATH to under USD400 in December 2013 the February-March 2014 period does look fairly stable. Around USD600 just prior to MtGox folding, and around USD450 now. A drop, admittedly, but proportionately smaller than the December drop (and other, similar drops from previous ATHs).

I don't know what an ATH is and I can't find it on Google.

So what caused the Dec 2013 drop?

Sorry, ATH is "all time high".

I don't know what caused the December 2013 drop - beyond the obvious "supply outstripping demand". All I know is that similar drops have happened before, without MtGox being (much of) a factor, and I'd expect similar drops (and the preceeding rises) to occur again.

Since MtGox's collapse there's been a steady decline, but nothing like the USD1200 to USD400 drop - and this has probably been driven more by concerns about regulation of Chinese exchanges.

[hucker]

Sorry, ATH is "all time high".

I don't know what caused the December 2013 drop - beyond the obvious "supply outstripping demand". All I know is that similar drops have happened before, without MtGox being (much of) a factor, and I'd expect similar drops (and the preceeding rises) to occur again.

Since MtGox's collapse there's been a steady decline, but nothing like the USD1200 to USD400 drop - and this has probably been driven more by concerns about regulation of Chinese exchanges.

I see.  Well until it can stabilise, it won't be taken seriously as a currency.

And I hope this rise happens soon, I'm not making any profit from mining any more!  The electricity costs the same as the coins created!

[GTO911]

Sorry, ATH is "all time high".

I don't know what caused the December 2013 drop - beyond the obvious "supply outstripping demand". All I know is that similar drops have happened before, without MtGox being (much of) a factor, and I'd expect similar drops (and the preceeding rises) to occur again.

Since MtGox's collapse there's been a steady decline, but nothing like the USD1200 to USD400 drop - and this has probably been driven more by concerns about regulation of Chinese exchanges.

I see.  Well until it can stabilise, it won't be taken seriously as a currency.

And I hope this rise happens soon, I'm not making any profit from mining any more!  The electricity costs the same as the coins created!

Value will never stablize as there are more speculators and traders than general users

[hucker]

Value will never stablize as there are more speculators and traders than general users

That's the inherent problem with all stock markets.  They have "positive feedback" as it's called in Physics.  Lots of people sell something because it's falling a bit, then the price falls even more, and more and more.

[Drai]

Value will never stablize as there are more speculators and traders than general users

That's the inherent problem with all stock markets.  They have "positive feedback" as it's called in Physics.  Lots of people sell something because it's falling a bit, then the price falls even more, and more and more.

This will reach an end with bitcoin if would be used like was minded for.

[hucker]

This will reach an end with bitcoin if would be used like was minded for.

Er, in English please?

[johnytelevision]

mt gox wasn't bank. Price of bitcoin get up because of speculation. People lose some confidence into bitcoin and it was already on falling trend before that.

[hucker]

mt gox wasn't bank. Price of bitcoin get up because of speculation. People lose some confidence into bitcoin and it was already on falling trend before that.

Well it was claimed people lost a lot of money when Mt Gox went under.  I don't see how, you would only lose the bit of money you were currently exchanging.

News stories said confidence was lost because of Mt Gox.

If it falls any further, all coins will be worthless, it's getting ridiculous.

[dogechode]

Value will never stablize as there are more speculators and traders than general users

Exactly. The massive price surges were based on NOTHING it was literally just one idiot after another lining up and buying the next hot thing because it kept going up. The problem is eventually that has to come crashing down and sure enough it did. I would liken it to the crazed dotcom investing frenzy... many companies' stock prices were driven up to absurd levels and then 'crashed' simply because the level they had reached was unsustainable without continuous investment by new bagholders.

[hucker]

Exactly. The massive price surges were based on NOTHING it was literally just one idiot after another lining up and buying the next hot thing because it kept going up. The problem is eventually that has to come crashing down and sure enough it did. I would liken it to the crazed dotcom investing frenzy... many companies' stock prices were driven up to absurd levels and then 'crashed' simply because the level they had reached was unsustainable without continuous investment by new bagholders.

How come shares in companies don't fluctuate so wildly then?

[dogechode]

Exactly. The massive price surges were based on NOTHING it was literally just one idiot after another lining up and buying the next hot thing because it kept going up. The problem is eventually that has to come crashing down and sure enough it did. I would liken it to the crazed dotcom investing frenzy... many companies' stock prices were driven up to absurd levels and then 'crashed' simply because the level they had reached was unsustainable without continuous investment by new bagholders.

How come shares in companies don't fluctuate so wildly then?

They do sometimes, when there is crazy hype around some new idea or technology or patent etc etc etc. But not as much as Bitcoin. Here's why.

With stocks, the value is based on SOMETHING. You can look at the company's income, assets, debt, patents, leadership, etc to determine what you think its shares are 'worth.' When the price starts to increase, and keeps increasing, some investors will start to throw up a red flag and say well hold on now, why should I pay $20 a share more for this than it was selling for 3 months ago? What has changed - did they suddenly enter a new market, develop a new product, or increase their income? Is the earnings per share higher? No? Then fuck you, it's not worth the current price and I'm not going to be a bag holder. Then the price settles down again.

With stock there are definite levels where buy support will decrease, and levels where sell support will decrease, that tend to be based loosely on various assessments of what a "fair" share price should be. People try to talk about resistance levels and support and all that with crypto but they are just making asses of themselves about 90% of the time. There is a difference between a true "support" that is based on sound investment logic, compared to a "support" that is just based on 50000000 idiots stampeding in the same direction.

With Bitcoin what exactly is the value based on? Who decided it should be worth over $1000? Where did that come from? It literally came from 50000000 idiots stampeding in one direction. Until the last swarm turned around and realized oh shit there's no one behind us, we were the last ones to the party. Now we're stuck holding $1000 bitcoins that aren't worth $1000 anymore.

Why didn't anyone step up and say now hold on a minute, what the hell are you smoking asking $1000 for a "bitcoin," where did you come up with that value? I'm sure some people did, but the fact is that both sides - for and against - have basically no hard evidence to support any particular price for Bitcoin. It's all just speculation and nonsense, like these people that keep saying IT MUST HIT $10000 or IT WILL SINK BACK DOWN To $5! They have no real hard evidence. There is no legitimate way to assess the value of a Bitcoin at present time so it is 100% based on psychology.

[hucker]

They do sometimes, when there is crazy hype around some new idea or technology or patent etc etc etc. But not as much as Bitcoin. Here's why.

With stocks, the value is based on SOMETHING. You can look at the company's income, assets, debt, patents, leadership, etc to determine what you think its shares are 'worth.' When the price starts to increase, and keeps increasing, some investors will start to throw up a red flag and say well hold on now, why should I pay $20 a share more for this than it was selling for 3 months ago? What has changed - did they suddenly enter a new market, develop a new product, or increase their income? Is the earnings per share higher? No? Then fuck you, it's not worth the current price and I'm not going to be a bag holder. Then the price settles down again.

With stock there are definite levels where buy support will decrease, and levels where sell support will decrease, that tend to be based loosely on various assessments of what a "fair" share price should be. People try to talk about resistance levels and support and all that with crypto but they are just making asses of themselves about 90% of the time. There is a difference between a true "support" that is based on sound investment logic, compared to a "support" that is just based on 50000000 idiots stampeding in the same direction.

With Bitcoin what exactly is the value based on? Who decided it should be worth over $1000? Where did that come from? It literally came from 50000000 idiots stampeding in one direction. Until the last swarm turned around and realized oh shit there's no one behind us, we were the last ones to the party. Now we're stuck holding $1000 bitcoins that aren't worth $1000 anymore.

Why didn't anyone step up and say now hold on a minute, what the hell are you smoking asking $1000 for a "bitcoin," where did you come up with that value? I'm sure some people did, but the fact is that both sides - for and against - have basically no hard evidence to support any particular price for Bitcoin. It's all just speculation and nonsense, like these people that keep saying IT MUST HIT $10000 or IT WILL SINK BACK DOWN To $5! They have no real hard evidence. There is no legitimate way to assess the value of a Bitcoin at present time so it is 100% based on psychology.

Good explanation.  So will Bitcoin ever stabilise properly?  I can't see it being a good currency if it's going to fluctuate wildly forever.  Maybe when it starts getting used to purchase goods more?

[dogechode]

Good explanation.  So will Bitcoin ever stabilise properly?  I can't see it being a good currency if it's going to fluctuate wildly forever.  Maybe when it starts getting used to purchase goods more?

I believe what is needed is a balanced economy. That means it can't be 99% transactions between miners and investors/speculators with an occasional real purchase transaction thrown in here and there - it should be MAJORITY regular transactions with a small percentage investment/mining. This will take time but it does need to happen. Also, some people need to be getting paid for labor and services directly in Bitcoin. Think about it, why would a regular person go through the trouble of obtaining Bitcoin or any other digital currency, to make purchases, when they could just use a credit card? Well, if they received Bitcoin as payment then they would go ahead and save or spend it just like fiat.

There's a whole article about this concept here: http://www.cryptopros.com/2014/03/working-for-cryptocurrency.html

Also, if businesses could pay employees in crypto they would have an incentive to hold the crypto they receive as payment for their goods/services, to use it to pay employees, rather than immediately exchanging it to fiat.

[hucker]

Good explanation.  So will Bitcoin ever stabilise properly?  I can't see it being a good currency if it's going to fluctuate wildly forever.  Maybe when it starts getting used to purchase goods more?

I believe what is needed is a balanced economy. That means it can't be 99% transactions between miners and investors/speculators with an occasional real purchase transaction thrown in here and there - it should be MAJORITY regular transactions with a small percentage investment/mining. This will take time but it does need to happen. Also, some people need to be getting paid for labor and services directly in Bitcoin. Think about it, why would a regular person go through the trouble of obtaining Bitcoin or any other digital currency, to make purchases, when they could just use a credit card? Well, if they received Bitcoin as payment then they would go ahead and save or spend it just like fiat.

There's a whole article about this concept here: http://www.cryptopros.com/2014/03/working-for-cryptocurrency.html

Also, if businesses could pay employees in crypto they would have an incentive to hold the crypto they receive as payment for their goods/services, to use it to pay employees, rather than immediately exchanging it to fiat.

Catch 22, it won't stabilise until people do the above, and people won't do the above until it's stable.  Would you want all your wages to be paid in something that could halve in price in a week?  Think how many bankruptcies we'd have when company's assets took dives.

[dogechode]

I'm not advocating full on salaries at this early stage but small steps would help. Think ebay, craigslist, freelance sites, fiverr, etc. If people got paid even a small amount directly in crypto, they would have an incentive to spend it like currency.