The Great Summer Gambling Migration

[stompix]

There are three kinds of lies: Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics

And there is only one sort of person who doesn't have anything better to do at 6 am in the morning on Saturday, but igoring this...

I always thought something felt really off when looking and discussing the impact of sig bans on the gambling board, something didn't really click right, so I went to see the spreadsheets from the signature campaign managers, picked 6 campaigns randomly, got through only 4 of them as I got bored and things were the same, so here are those results in percentages, gambling posts as a percentage of total of counted/accepted posts for 4 casino campaigns.
And no I'm not going to name them nor did I pick them by any criteria other than the first bumped on the board and having already done the count for gambling posts/total posts.

Week 1       64.19%   55.43%   62.40%   58.66%
Week 2       63.32%   54.14%   63.04%   59.21%
Week 3       65.85%   55.91%   56.92%   52.54%

 <Great Cataclysm of 20/07/2026>   
      
Week 4       58.03%   44.07%   55.13%   44.59%
Week 5       55.49%   44.98%   54.86%   42.33%
Week 6       57.02%   44.82%   52.43%   43.67%
Week 7       54.02%   43.50%   54.66%   42.86%
Week 8       55.19%   45.20%   52.24%   43.78%

Weird pattern, right?  

[Don Pedro Dinero]

Most likely scenario, that drop in posts in the gambling section is due to the banning of accounts that posted exclusively or mostly there. In other words, guys like this:

This is the rubbish you are littering the forum with. You are not quoting anyone, you are not engaging in conversation, you are just posting in mega gambling threads following the same pattern. So, let's see if people can appreciate.

The percentage decrease makes sense.

[snipie]

Every member with an or several alt accounts will simply focus on them rather than the sigbanned account because it doesn't generate money anymore for them.
All the accounts that dropped in activity will return to post maybe a week or two before the sigban will be lifted.
Some of the other members who don't have alternatives, will leave the forum definitely, others will try to buy an account far from radars and others will keep following the forum and posting slightly the same way.
A drop is normal in the gambling section because the reason of the sigban was the posts in mega threads. You can spot it in many sigbanned accounts. Even if it wasn't told directly, it is clearly mentioned. Posting in new and small topics in the gambling section? Most of them are pure spam and created by alts to allow the others to increase their post counts in that section.

[stompix]

Most likely scenario, that drop in posts in the gambling section is due to the banning of accounts that posted exclusively or mostly there.

Nope, one campaign has lost more posts in the gambling section than the cumulative posts of all banned members, and one had just one member that stopped posting because of a ban in the first week. Besides, if the impact was just from those banned users, the averages wouldn't be 1-2% lower over the next 5 weeks as more bans happen, there would still be sharp drops.

The thing is that farmers have gotten scared and started making only the necessary amounts in the section, with more and more migrating to Bitcoin Discussions and Economics.
In theory, Economics should be on average down by 40 posts a day, well, it's going up  

[Rhow]

The numbers are really striking. If you look closely, you can clearly see that not only did the average decrease, but the highest rate after July 20th in all four campaigns was also below the lowest rate of the previous three weeks.

From the numbers you mentioned, what I noticed after calculating is that the overall average of the four in the previous 3 weeks is about 59.3%, and in the next 5 weeks about 49.4%. This means that 9.9 percent of the posts on the gambling board have decreased. Here it is clear that people are probably reducing their posts from the gambling board and spreading them to other boards due to the fear of signature bans.

Another thing you may have noticed is that the World Cup final was on July 19th and the first new signature bans probably started on July 20th. During the World Cup, there is naturally more material for gambling and sports discussions. So coincidentally, the two have come together. At the same time, some people started moving to other boards due to the fear of signature bans and the situation of discussing the World Cup was also decreasing.

[SilverCryptoBullet]

Another thing you may have noticed is that the World Cup final was on July 19th and the first new signature bans probably started on July 20th. During the World Cup, there is naturally more material for gambling and sports discussions. So coincidentally, the two have come together. At the same time, some people started moving to other boards due to the fear of signature bans and the situation of discussing the World Cup was also decreasing.

No. I am sure that it is not World Cup effects but the signature ban effects after many active posters in gambling board were banned since 18 July. Such spammers know that if they continue to spam with 100% of their posts or very high percentages of their posts in Gambling board, their accounts will be given a signature ban hammer.

That's reason they spread their posts to other boards, they adapted to it with hope that it will cover their shitposts, and low post quality.

Unfortunately, shitposts are shitposts, low quality posts are such as shitposters can not make good posts in any board. They can improve only if they get banned.

[lovesmayfamilis]

All the accounts that dropped in activity will return to post maybe a week or two before the sigban will be lifted.
Some of the other members who don't have alternatives, will leave the forum definitely, others will try to buy an account far from radars and others will keep following the forum and posting slightly the same way.
A drop is normal in the gambling section because the reason of the sigban was the posts in mega threads. You can spot it in many sigbanned accounts. Even if it wasn't told directly, it is clearly mentioned. Posting in new and small topics in the gambling section? Most of them are pure spam and created by alts to allow the others to increase their post counts in that section.

Waking up two weeks before the ban ends?
I wonder if this inactivity will affect future decisions regarding these accounts. Yes, they were banned. Yes, they left the companies. But does a ban on signatures mean that people have to leave the forum? By limiting their activity, they are clearly stating why they were here.

The "postflayer.onrender" program, if it has been updated by then, should conclude that the user has improved their quality in posts.

Having not achieved any success before, they can easily be given an additional “vacation”.

It would be good to take such things into account.
The conclusion is drawn based on their behavior. So, the forum owes something to these temporarily inactive accounts (we all know why they're considered inactive), yet they're not willing to write even a single "comment" for free? Do we even need people like that?

They can improve only if they get banned.

How so? If they're not on the forum, will they gain any more "talents"?

[EarnOnVictor]

This is simple, and it shows how people lack confidence in their posting habit, got scared, felt guilty, and desperately in need of forum's validation.

The drop can be attributed mainly to two reasons:
1. Most of those who were ban focused on the gambling section only.
2. Fear: Many people who were not yet banned had to change their posting habits by prioritising other sections.

I wonder why they didn't think of "2" in the first place. In everything you do, there must be a balance.

[libert19]

...

2. Fear: Many people who were not yet banned had to change their posting habits by prioritising other sections.

I wonder why they didn't think of "2" in the first place. In everything you do, there must be a balance.

When you have clear goal and that is, get in the signature campaign >> complete posts quota >> leave. You don't need balance because you know what you are doing and nobody expected that banhammer was on the way (despite Nutildah's post(s) hinting that he was upto something... wait you need to be on Meta to know that anyhow) that they could start pretending early on.

[SilverCryptoBullet]

They can improve only if they get banned.

How so? If they're not on the forum, will they gain any more "talents"?

I meant if they got the signature ban, they are still allowed to post, and if they want to improve their post quality, they can do that.

I did not say about permanent bans because in this discussion, I see it is only about signature ban. The signature ban itself is like a reason and motivation for people to post with higher quality.

Your ban was issued because your recent posting habits fall below forum standards of quality

If you believe your signature ban is incorrect or you've made some improvement to your posting habits, please feel free to explain your case by opening a topic in Meta with the words "Sigban Appeal for (username)" in the subject line. Thanks.

They can read and write with signature bans.

Since they are easy to appeal and don't harm the user's ability to speak

[Bitcoin_Arena]

The thing is that farmers have gotten scared and started making only the necessary amounts in the section, with more and more migrating to Bitcoin Discussions and Economics.
In theory, Economics should be on average down by 40 posts a day, well, it's going up  

Moving to other boards isn't going to save their asses. Improving the posts will. In fact, I think they will even get more exposed when they make their half-baked posts in other boards that may require some bit of technical knowledge or the current global affair. The thing with the gambling discussion board in particular is that it was easy for them to post anything there so long as they mentioned a few player names or just included game results in a mega thread. They can't do the same in the Bitcoin discussion board threads

[snipie]

2. Fear: Many people who were not yet banned had to change their posting habits by prioritising other sections.

I wonder why they didn't think of "2" in the first place. In everything you do, there must be a balance.

Changing their posting habits by improving their posts quality is a thing and prioritising other section is something that the forum should not be proud of. Yes some  people are forced to leave the gambling section to avoid the famous text. That's not normal..

[notocactus]

2. Fear: Many people who were not yet banned had to change their posting habits by prioritising other sections.

Such posters self admitted that they were shitposters before the signature ban. If a user made 20 posts all in gambling discussion board before the signature ban, recent weeks changed posting style to other boards, I am quite sure that posts in other boards are very likely spam and pointless too.

I wonder why they didn't think of "2" in the first place. In everything you do, there must be a balance.

If they were able to spam and made money easily, why did they feel like they need to change and post with higher quality that certainly takes more time.

Changing their posting habits by improving their posts quality is a thing and prioritising other section is something that the forum should not be proud of. Yes some  people are forced to leave the gambling section to avoid the famous text. That's not normal..

It's not normal and it does not show any quality improvement.

Post quality belongs to posts and reasons of posting. It's like posting is a very last step to do, otherwise let's focus on reading and absorbing information, if nothing helpful to post, don't post.

By moving to other boards, shitposters made these boards worse.

[khatarnak]

They can improve only if they get banned.

Mods know what is going on.
If they start banning too many people, the forum is going to get pretty quiet.

[stompix]

In fact, I think they will even get more exposed when they make their half-baked posts in other boards that may require some bit of technical knowledge or the current global affair. The thing with the gambling discussion board in particular is that it was easy for them to post anything there so long as they mentioned a few player names or just included game results in a mega thread. They can't do the same in the Bitcoin discussion board threads

There is absolutely no difference in the number of minimal working synapses you need to have in order to psot garbage like Real won, x and y scored, and that Real are favorites at winnign the championship and saying Bitcoin will go up because the trend has shown us that we're in a bull market and the value will increase buecause value has increased in the Speculation and Economics boards where most of these guys have migrated! Those boards and BD will need to be cleaned up too, only Technical and Mining are somewhat safe.