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Author Topic: BTC YEAR-END 2026 — MY BASE CASE  (Read 747 times)
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October 08, 2026, 08:31:01 PM
 #41

2 months I'd call it especially if we only count the full trading days.   The year is strangely shorter then you might think at this time of the year, things are quite rushed.   Before you know it we're into December and some people arent even in the office for that month, lucky them but the biggest money isnt there is what I mean.

Plain trading it might be 3 months but theres alot of dead time in that space, only the higher volume stuff really counts for setting a price especially if we were to cut new ground etc.   At present we're back to the 50 day average which I count as revision and I just wonder if we goto 200 day average or similar, but I mostly expect price action to circle.

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October 08, 2026, 08:56:33 PM
Last edit: October 08, 2026, 09:10:33 PM by Gozie51
 #42

BTC YEAR-END 2026 — MY BASE CASE

I want to put one Bitcoin forecast on record now and leave the original hypothesis unchanged so it can be judged against reality later.

Current BTC area: ~ $80K
My year-end 2026 base case: $90K–$98K
Direction: recovery continues.


I believe that we have more months till the end of this year but the price you gave might not be realistic before the year end. The year is in the last quarter and historically, the price doesn't move faster at this time, it accumulate gradually. At this time, btc is trading below $82+k, it doesn't look easy to achieve within tow months for bitcoin to make sure gains of about $18+, even if price should appreciate, it has to be around the december month because of the activities of selling that will cause more investors to buy and fresh buy will be done, changing directions of bitcoin to possibly buy in the next year.


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October 09, 2026, 01:25:53 AM
 #43

2 months I'd call it especially if we only count the full trading days.   The year is strangely shorter then you might think at this time of the year, things are quite rushed.   Before you know it we're into December and some people arent even in the office for that month, lucky them but the biggest money isnt there is what I mean.
You are mistaken Bitcoin with currency pairs and other commodities because there is nothing like trading days with Bitcoin, its market is opened 24/7. Therefore we still have two months and about three weeks until the end of this year.

The recent corrections in the market is making me have a different opinion about my expectations for the end of the year in terms of the price of bitcoin.

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October 09, 2026, 07:53:23 AM
 #44

Well, i am not one of the future or fortune teller, because i can not do it and i do not have the power to... since i can not do anything that can influence the market thereby making it to go as predicted but i will say bitoin hitting 90-$98k is very realistic but then again it is just a mere prediction and i believe anything is possible in the market that is why i feel and think bitcoin can go above $100k before the end of 2026 i mean that is what my gut keep telling me but i channel my energy into actualizing a good portfolio before this move happens.

No one can predict the future or the outcome of bitcoin at the end of yhe year but what we are seeing from bitcoin currently is positive and with the way the market is going, the price can hit 90k or more than that, but we should not also forget that anything can happen, because most of us panic when the price drops any day and think the price is going to continue to fall, most of us can panic at the moment and think negative that many people predict that the price will rise and it does not go as it should be, we still have two months and some weeks to go before the end of the year, anything can happen, no one can not predict bitcoin, but we all believe that the price will rise and the price can reach more than the current price.

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October 09, 2026, 03:05:12 PM
 #45

The end of the year is moving towards a bullish pattern with the market if we are going to give it an overall assessment based on the recent market performance, very likely that we are going to get to $90,000 and even close to 100,000 before this year end and we may also experience bearish move before then, but this may only be on a short-term experience before we eventually go more bullish and being the major target, you should not also mistaken that for a bull run because we are still not done with bear season.
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October 09, 2026, 08:00:00 PM
 #46

BTC YEAR-END 2026 — MY BASE CASE

I want to put one Bitcoin forecast on record now and leave the original hypothesis unchanged so it can be judged against reality later.

Current BTC area: ~ $80K
My year-end 2026 base case: $90K–$98K
Direction: recovery continues.
Is your Speculation aiming an approximate? How about if the price pushes above the maximum of your Speculations because I think if we can see that $98K earlier and volatility is not considering a resistance.
Of course the market price can also be consolidated but if there is going to be stronger supports the price can as well break $100K.

Volatility has also been moving side ways within the range of $80K since the recovery and for the fact we have also seen $82K at same market level before this resistance, I am seeing possibilities of obtaining $90L before the end of October. $100K by the end of December is also possible but I have very little faith there.

We have known Bitcoin to be very volatile, and can fluctuate sideways within a short period of time, though there has been upward trend after dipping to a price of about $58k . Bitcoin is really showing some strength, and the price of $98k-$100k might be possible by the end of the year 2026 if the present momentum continues. The Bitcoin market price can be uncertain sometimes, and many investors, and predictors have been on this prediction for many years. However, as investors we really have to be care how we listing to some of these speculators, they can even make investors discouraged sometimes because there are also some predictors who say Bitcoin will come down to zero making some people feel very discouraged, and even sell their Bitcoin asset.

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October 09, 2026, 08:48:02 PM
 #47

~SNIP
Is your Speculation aiming an approximate? How about if the price pushes above the maximum of your Speculations because I think if we can see that $98K earlier and volatility is not considering a resistance.
Of course the market price can also be consolidated but if there is going to be stronger supports the price can as well break $100K.

Volatility has also been moving side ways within the range of $80K since the recovery and for the fact we have also seen $82K at same market level before this resistance, I am seeing possibilities of obtaining $90L before the end of October. $100K by the end of December is also possible but I have very little faith there.

We have known Bitcoin to be very volatile, and can fluctuate sideways within a short period of time, though there has been upward trend after dipping to a price of about $58k . Bitcoin is really showing some strength, and the price of $98k-$100k might be possible by the end of the year 2026 if the present momentum continues.
Bitcoin market Volatilities had really been trending on the side ways which has also been consolidating Bitcoin price in trading within the range of late/high $70Ks down trends with the up trends at the range of late/high $80Ks with $90K being a heavy resistance.

And while we might still be in the bear market, don't be surprised that price might fall below the $58K bottom before before the year runs out.  I won't also be surprised if the up rise resistance is broken leading to the $90K - $100K. But this is always uncertained.


The Bitcoin market price can be uncertain sometimes, and many investors, and predictors have been on this prediction for many years. However, as investors we really have to be care how we listing to some of these speculators, they can even make investors discouraged sometimes because there are also some predictors who say Bitcoin will come down to zero making some people feel very discouraged, and even sell their Bitcoin asset.
Only the haters who we know to be Bitcoin critics says Bitcoin will fall to zero and they usually don't have any technical facts to back their claims.

You don't actually call them predictors but haters who only focus on criticizing Bitcoin and causing Fuds among investors especially during when price is dipping. So don't bother paying them attention.

 
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October 10, 2026, 07:15:41 AM
 #48

BTC YEAR-END 2026 — MY BASE CASE

I want to put one Bitcoin forecast on record now and leave the original hypothesis unchanged so it can be judged against reality later.

Current BTC area: ~ $80K
My year-end 2026 base case: $90K–$98K
Direction: recovery continues.
Is your Speculation aiming an approximate? How about if the price pushes above the maximum of your Speculations because I think if we can see that $98K earlier and volatility is not considering a resistance.
Of course the market price can also be consolidated but if there is going to be stronger supports the price can as well break $100K.

Volatility has also been moving side ways within the range of $80K since the recovery and for the fact we have also seen $82K at same market level before this resistance, I am seeing possibilities of obtaining $90L before the end of October. $100K by the end of December is also possible but I have very little faith there.
We have known Bitcoin to be very volatile, and can fluctuate sideways within a short period of time, though there has been upward trend after dipping to a price of about $58k . Bitcoin is really showing some strength, and the price of $98k-$100k might be possible by the end of the year 2026 if the present momentum continues. The Bitcoin market price can be uncertain sometimes, and many investors, and predictors have been on this prediction for many years. However, as investors we really have to be care how we listing to some of these speculators, they can even make investors discouraged sometimes because there are also some predictors who say Bitcoin will come down to zero making some people feel very discouraged, and even sell their Bitcoin asset.
I think the $100k mark is really very crucial for bitcoins and I have usually noticed the price gets a bit reactive over there. Identifying the pressure gets a bit tricky in situations like these so we can't assume if price will maintain that level. Either the price might skyrocket which might make a new ATH because of the sudden buying pressure or the price can dump instantly back to $80k levels due to a strong rejection. We would have to be very careful around those levels and should have a strict risk management strategy in place for a quick exit.

These speculations are useful to identify the market sentiments but should not be used as an investment guide. Nothing can be assured and no matter how well experienced trader you are, mistakes are still inevitable.

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October 10, 2026, 12:37:16 PM
 #49

The end of the year is moving towards a bullish pattern with the market if we are going to give it an overall assessment based on the recent market performance, very likely that we are going to get to $90,000 and even close to 100,000 before this year end and we may also experience bearish move before then, but this may only be on a short-term experience before we eventually go more bullish and being the major target, you should not also mistaken that for a bull run because we are still not done with bear season.



I feel a bit skeptical seeing Bitcoin to bounce back to the 90k - 100k range if it's still trading below 85k. From what i saw if we had a supply fresh at 4h time frame, which makes me feel doubt it will be moving up. Beside that i was also ChoCh happened in the chart, which is also treggering further decline.

If we're still seeing bitcoin to trade below 85k until next month, it seems it will be moving back to the 75k range, but it can be invalid if bitcoin will be bouncing back above 85k, then stay there until the end of this year.

However, the chart still remain unpredictable if we get a big news.

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October 10, 2026, 05:59:24 PM
 #50

Seems like a valid bet to me. Even I would be expecting bitcoins at around that level by the end of this year. Initially, I was a bit bearish when the price continued to stay at the bottom with no buying pressure. But when we crossed $80k and sustained that level, I was confident that the current long term trend is bullish. I still find investing at a few intervals profitable because I can still make easy 8% to 10% by the year end if those levels turn out to be true.

Yes, nothing can be sure when it comes to crypto trading so all we have are assumptions. The situation might seem a bit bullish as of now but it would take just a few days for the bears to get stronger and change the market direction.

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