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Author Topic: Proof of Work oracle for Bitcoin: production cost, real solo odds & more  (Read 26 times)
backpow (OP)
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September 08, 2026, 05:26:47 PM
 #1

Every mining calculator answers "how much will I earn". I wanted the two numbers that
actually decide anything, so I built this as a Proof of Work oracle instead: what it costs
the network to produce one BTCTC, and what your real odds are of finding a block.

see more at https://backpow.com/Bitcoin

The odds are a Poisson process on live difficulty, so the page also draws the cumulative
probability curve over time instead of giving you a single average that hides the variance.
The hardware side currently holds 189 SHA-256 machines, from a NerdMiner up to a 20 kW
Whatsminer.

What it reports today:

- Network hashrate 919 EH/s, average block 9.9 min
- Block reward 3.125 BTC, so a block is worth about $245,900 at spot
- Cost of Production about $47,370 per BTC
- Spot is around $78,700, so production cost sits at 60% of price. Over the last 30 days
  that floor moved only between $46,536 and $47,310

On the cost of production: I compute it with the most efficient ASIC on the network
(Bitdeer Sealminer A4 Ultra Hydro) at $0.069/kWh, because what I am after is the floor,
the cheapest(or close to) price at which anyone can still produce a coin. That is a choice, not a
truth, so the page lets you put in your own hashrate, wattage and electricity rate and
recomputes everything for your case.

The production cost is the part I could not find anywhere else. It is the electricity
floor under the price: when spot approaches it, the marginal miner is the one who stops.

Solo odds and daily economics(w pool mining) at $0.069/kWh, across the range:

- Bitaxe Gamma, 1.10 TH/s, 18 W: 1 in 15,819 per year, +$0.01/day.
  Breakeven electricity $0.099/kWh
- NerdOctaxe, 9.61 TH/s, 150 W: 1 in 1,806 per year, +$0.12/day
- Antminer S19J 90T, 90 TH/s, 3250 W: 1 in 193 per year, but -$1.89/day.
  Old gear is underwater at this rate before it is unlucky
- Antminer S21 Pro, 235 TH/s, 3510 W: 1 in 75 per year, +$3.28/day
- Whatsminer M79S, 1354 TH/s, 20 kW: 1 in 13 per year, +$19.38/day

Difficulty, network hashrate,cost of production and price are live on the page. No signup, no ads, no affiliate or referral links, nothing to buy.

If you have feedback, put it below: what is missing, what is wrong, what you would want
from a tool like this. Suggestions and criticism both welcome  Kiss
FP91G
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September 08, 2026, 06:33:38 PM
 #2

It’s an excellent calculator, but it would be better to include data for all the popular solo-mining devices on the first page—after all, those are the ones your customers will be using.
Miners using the MicroBT Whatsminer M78S are unlikely to consider solo mining, as it is extremely expensive.
You can then list the high-power mining ASICs further down the page.

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backpow (OP)
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September 08, 2026, 07:00:30 PM
 #3

thanks!
Will fix  Smiley
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