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Author Topic: Utilizing portfolio selection to avoid tail risks  (Read 381 times)
Sticky Bomb
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September 15, 2026, 08:27:38 AM
 #21

It's dicey, since people who actively diversify can still be actively diversifying into a failed project ignorantly, it's best to have limited productive assets in an investment niche and take more of your diversification outside of it.

 For example, you come into crypto investment and fill your bags with Bitcoin, Eth, Monero and you take your diversification to precious metals and invest in Gold and silver, you can take it further to real estates if you still have good funds and pursue lands and event centers. That's more profitable way to diversify, than doing everything in crypto niche and accumulating more financial liabilities for yourself.

Distributing of money in one sector of the economy are equivalent to the fatal financial weaknesses being accrued. The purchase of dozens of similar projects regularly is likely to leave junk assets that drains the value of wealth since a collapse in one ecosystem is likely to blow up complete portfolio in real time.
Diversifying portfolio brings about more security on your investments. I don't agree with OP to include liabilities in your assets portfolio and with assumed careful selection. You might end up falling for what you're avoiding in the first place. Careful selection should include good performing assets and diversification should be across other asset classes. Crypto isn't the only assets that is worth putting funds into. It's always a better advise not to put all your eggs in one basket, so that failure in one asset class wouldn't mean a total investment failure.

Even if you decide to gamble as is the case sometimes, you shouldn't treat those coins as diversification and shouldn't put much money into them so that if it fails to convert for you, it wouldn't matter much since you hold them with a pinch of salt in the first place.

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September 15, 2026, 09:32:17 AM
 #22

I believe there is a difference between diversification and just switching from altcoin to altcoin. When BTC moves aggressively down, moving from one alt to another might not help much with risk reductions, because each one of these is correlated with one another in times of mass sell-off. Rebalancing can still be effective, but should only be done for a specific reason to change the allocation, not the one coin that is doing well. Otherwise, an investor might end up selling at a loss and purchasing another asset at a loss. For me, risk management is not a search for the next outperformer, it's a risk control as far as managing exposure.

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September 15, 2026, 08:05:35 PM
 #23

Asset diversification doesn't work well in crypto since Bitcoin mostly determines altcoins price movement. Better to put all your eggs in one solid basket than split it into solid and weak baskets, and then hopping from weak baskets to other weak baskets in order to minimize risk that's due to the so called tail risks.
Diversification could only be done with assets that consistently move up than they move down, especially those outside of Bitcoin influence

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September 16, 2026, 11:40:02 AM
 #24

I agree that no need to HODL until it crashes for altcoins that facing fundamental issues and diversification can reduce specific risk. But change to other asset may cause we face another phase of buy high sell low repeatedly because we only know that an asset has already outperformed other asset in the past, How we know that the asset will be more profitable in the future? Thats why i ting will be wise if we determining the overall investment strategy then buy asset with match with our strategy. So do not sell asset simply because price dropped or chasing price performance, sell it when the fundamental reasons when you buy it are no longer valid.
This makes diversification a hard thing for most investors, it requires consistent observation of market movements, while the process leads to multiple losses from buying high and selling low, the investor is better off doing this than letting the portfolio sink, also with the right selection, some alts in the portfolio will get profitable, thereby enabling a healthy portfolio with a low rate of assets exposed to high systemic risks.

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September 16, 2026, 11:12:00 PM
 #25

I agree that no need to HODL until it crashes for altcoins that facing fundamental issues and diversification can reduce specific risk. But change to other asset may cause we face another phase of buy high sell low repeatedly because we only know that an asset has already outperformed other asset in the past, How we know that the asset will be more profitable in the future? Thats why i ting will be wise if we determining the overall investment strategy then buy asset with match with our strategy. So do not sell asset simply because price dropped or chasing price performance, sell it when the fundamental reasons when you buy it are no longer valid.
This makes diversification a hard thing for most investors, it requires consistent observation of market movements, while the process leads to multiple losses from buying high and selling low, the investor is better off doing this than letting the portfolio sink, also with the right selection, some alts in the portfolio will get profitable, thereby enabling a healthy portfolio with a low rate of assets exposed to high systemic risks.

Your explanation implies that some assets must be able to compensate for other assets. I think you mixed between diversification to maximize growth and diversification as hedge to reduce portofolio's tail risk. For return seeking we choose assets that has the potential to deliver high growth. For risk management, we choose assets which its function is to ensure when tail risk occurs, we are not dorces to sell growth assets at cheap prices.

Healthy portofolio not measured by profit loss balance from several altcoin but from each assets function. I think cash reserve can be use at tail risk management portofolio eventhough its return appear not productive, but when crisis happen cash can buy time and choice even on normal condition they look like hibernate.

I think we must separate between diversification, rebalancing and tail risk management, by asset allocation we can determine risk limits the we choose asset and do periodic rebalancing so we do not need to react in every price movement.

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Today at 08:05:49 PM
 #26

Healthy portofolio not measured by profit loss balance from several altcoin but from each assets function. I think cash reserve can be use at tail risk management portofolio eventhough its return appear not productive, but when crisis happen cash can buy time and choice even on normal condition they look like hibernate.

I think we must separate between diversification, rebalancing and tail risk management, by asset allocation we can determine risk limits the we choose asset and do periodic rebalancing so we do not need to react in every price movement.
Cash is a prey to inflation, it solves little to no problem for the investor. By asset allocation do you mean shifting to other assets outside the crypto horizon? If so, it's a great choice, but you saw what happened with bonds in the US, the buyback program has left investors to find bitcoin as a safe haven over assets like bonds. It's challenging to shuttle crypto and assets outside of it, follow up is the big fight here, knowing when to move away or wait considering the distance, lol, but it's true when in a market like crypto it's much like having your eyes focused on something you quite understand how it moves than going too far to buy assets you may wake up to an unaware fall in profit.

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Today at 08:27:45 PM
 #27

Asset diversification doesn't work well in crypto since Bitcoin mostly determines altcoins price movement. Better to put all your eggs in one solid basket than split it into solid and weak baskets, and then hopping from weak baskets to other weak baskets in order to minimize risk that's due to the so called tail risks.
Diversification could only be done with assets that consistently move up than they move down, especially those outside of Bitcoin influence
No, diversification is necessary even in Altcoin, it's certain Bitcoin is already the original assets that guarantees results no matter the time, but splitting investment with other altcoin assets is better especially in the best ones, the blockchain based decentralized coins that had gained ground in the crypto industry will certainly delivera good results over time without regret.

Crypto assets like BNB, ETH, SOL and XMR are pretty the recommended altcoin that worth the holdings, each of them experiences new ATH each bull season and they never fail investors no matter the time it takes.

To be on topic, those are the the tail risks I can vow to take to my investment portfolio.


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