Didn't Notice a Single Prediction Market Promotion Here

[Darker45]

I've noticed that there's a new casino introduced every now and then. They're sprouting like mushrooms. Even here on the forum, there's a new one coming out almost every week.

I wonder why there are no prediction markets, though. We've often read that prediction market is the next big thing. We're all familiar with Polymarket and Kalshi and how they hit the mainstream in a relatively short period of time. They grew from their humble beginnings of a few millions in seed capital not too long ago to a valuation of tens of billions today.

With Anjouan, Curaçao, and other jurisdictions offering cheap and fast license to prediction markets, why aren't we flooded with new competitors until now?

Surely, it must not simply because Polymarket and Kalshi can offer their services to the US while typical Curaçao-registered casinos can't. Stake.com, Roobet, Shuffle, Rollbit, BC.Game, Rainbet, and the rest of the top crypto casinos are registered in either Curaçao or Anjouan. They, too, grew big in the markets outside the US.

Also, it mustn't be about having a gaming license rather than a derivatives exchange license. It only matters in jurisdictions that would be restricted anyway.

I'm a bit curious.

[stompix]

why aren't we flooded with new competitors until now?

With prediction markets, you need volume!

In casinos it's simple, one hundred guys with $10 dollars come and play slots, the slot provider takes care of the rest, they put a bet on Bayern, the odds provider takes care of the money and payouts, with prediction markets, they come and see the market has 5$ on it so if you bet $10 you break it and everyone goes away, with a casino and a traditional sportsbook the number of players on the site has nothing to do with the potential payout.

There have been plenty of cheap clones around, they've all died because of the same thing: people open the market board and see there is little activity they close it down and go to the big ones.

Licenses have nothing to do with it.

[Oshosondy]

There was on one in the past on this forum.

Most sites that came to this forum are gambling and in the past mixers when mixers were allowed. The other one are swap services but which are not the exchanges that allow prediction markets.

The exchanges that allow prediction markets are not common on this forum. Also Polymarket and Kashi used other means to to market their sites.

[free-bit.co.in]

When casino is fresh house can yield required liquidity and demand.
However prediction market process much like exchange.
it need luring adequate number of both buyer and seller for same event.
Without liquidity spread will widen. Price discovery will weaken. And eventually user will move to established market.

Again your idea that flood of competition will inevitably follow merely because one hold low cost Anjouan or Curacao license is not totally valid. New competitor are definitely penetrating this field, platform like DraftKings and FanDuel are nowadays making their way into prediction market space. Yet Kalshi continues to hold significant lead in term of volume.

[viljy]

Unlike a bookmaker, in the prediction market you place bets against the bets of other players. With a bookmaker, it’s basically the same, but not quite. The bookmaker can shift the line to balance things out. And it’s the bookmaker who pays out your winnings. In the prediction market, the most important thing is having liquidity.

That is, it makes no sense to place bets in a market where no one is. And attracting liquidity to the platform is far from a trivial task. It’s much more difficult than just running an advertising campaign. In other words, it’s easier to start a casino business. It’s better to gradually expand the casino’s functionality with a prediction market. For a purely decentralized prediction market, this difficulty is even greater.

It so happened that almost all the clients and liquidity are concentrated on Polymarket and Kalshi. For example, the sports prediction section on Hyperliquid is practically empty. Although this is a powerful platform with high liquidity, the specific nature of the clients completely focuses the market only on cryptocurrency predictions. There are no sports fans there. Sports fans make up the majority of bettors, not cryptocurrency traders. So it’s often easier to collaborate with Kalshi or Polymarket, as multi‑cryptocurrency wallets (Trust, Bitget) do, than to create your own project from scratch.

[Ayers]

I wouldn't completely overlook prospect of US access. You know heavy legal battle is still ongoing concerning Kalshi's CFTC position and authority of state gambling regulator.

Again, last month Ninth Circuit granted Nevada the administration to regulate Kalshi's sports contract, although the perspective of other circuit differs.

Moreover compared to casino there is more increased hazard of insider trading and problems surrounding outcome resolution here. Report have materialized of numerous CFTC investigation into insider trading concerning Polymarket, so regulatory and compliance burden cannot be underestimated.

[CucakRowo]

In reality market making and liquidity cold start problem are the most significant hurdle preventing frequent emergence of new prediction market.

You know, casinos act as counterparty themselve.
Whether we spin slot or play roulette any winning are always paid out from their own reserve.

Prediction market however do not operate like casino. They function as P2P order book.
Here if one person buys Yes position, someone else must buy No position.

If you establish any new prediction market without sufficient number of buyer and seller then user will be unable to perform any trade.
In their early phase platform like Polymarket and Kalshi had to pay market maker millions of dollar to populate order book and guaranteeing that organic traders would discover liquidity.

For any typical Curacao based casino operator, ensuring fund and handling logistic required for such type of market making is almost impossible.

[PostQuantumBTC]

Moreover compared to casino there is more increased hazard of insider trading and problems surrounding outcome resolution here. Report have materialized of numerous CFTC investigation into insider trading concerning Polymarket, so regulatory and compliance burden cannot be underestimated.

Are you saying regulatory and compliance burden are the reasons the prediction markets are not on this forum? I do not agree with you and I think you are not right. If Polymarket and Kalshi want to come to this forum, it will take them nothing and they can even prefer to advertise. Regulatory and compliance are not the reasons they are not on this forum. The reason is because they do not want to be on this forum.

[Dave1]

Probably it's because prediction market is not a sports gambling per se. And we only see mostly crypto base casinos being promoted here. Not sure if they supported crypto though, but in any case this community is only focus on that two things, sports + crypto.

And from what I have seen here, gamblers doesn't like the idea of prediction market because of pure manipulation from behind.

But if they want to promote here then why not? At least we can see how our community will react or at least they can gauge what our sentiments with them.

[slaman29]

I'm guessing it could be because those platforms usually require KYC and maybe are US centered?

Never tried, just guessing. Forum's full of crypto people who like privacy, just take a look at most of the new ones being promoted. Anon casinos etc. Back to the old days I guess.

Edit: I saw @Ayers post and that's part of my guess (USA).

[Smartprofit]

I think prediction platforms simply don't have the large advertising budgets to promote their platforms on the Bitcointalk forum. 🙋

Online casinos are a very profitable business. Players play against the casino and lose large sums of money. Gambling is gambling... Prediction platforms are structured completely differently. Players play against each other. The platform receives a small commission from each transaction. This is enough for the platform founder to live comfortably, but not enough to generate large advertising budgets.

The audience of the Bitcointalk gambling section and the audience of people betting on prediction platforms are fundamentally different... Although, of course, I've seen a lot of new threads related to Polymarket and Kalshi recently. And that's encouraging!

However, it should be acknowledged that since prediction platforms are a relatively new phenomenon, active players have chosen other platforms for communication (Discord, Telegram, X, etc.).

Although, of course, I would be glad to see new signature compaigns on our forum!  So, if you're reading this right now, join us. We're waiting for you! 🎲

[AmaGold70]

It is true that many casino casino companies are flooding the Internet lately because of the increasing interest in the gambling industry, and even some of the cryptocurrency exchanges, and some news platforms are equally incoporating casino games into their platforms, and the prediction market seems not to be making progress in terms of more opening or creating more of the prediction market. To me, I feel the reason is because more interest is being focused in the casino games, and it is more in popularity than the prediction market. Many of the gamblers here, are only familiar with playing casino games with their local bookies which is more exposed to them, and other gambling platforms which you named here, but the prediction market is not popular to many, and that is the more reason it is not speeding so easily like the casino platforms.

[Ayers]

Are you saying regulatory and compliance burden are the reasons the prediction markets are not on this forum? I do not agree with you and I think you are not right. If Polymarket and Kalshi want to come to this forum, it will take them nothing and they can even prefer to advertise. Regulatory and compliance are not the reasons they are not on this forum. The reason is because they do not want to be on this forum.

I think we are emitting about two negligibly different thing here.

I didnt say regulatory burden is only justification not to advertise on Bitcointalk. Whether to advertise on this forum or not is ultimately their own business, I agree with your point here.

My point was about overall entry barrier in prediction market industry. It is surely not difficult to promote by purchasing a forum banner. But beyond that regulatory and compliance issue of running actual platform is clearly a true concern. Polymarket has had multiple insider trading probe by CFTC and Kalshi has also come under regulatory scrutiny in insider trading case. Even CFTC vs state regulator have multiple lawsuit going on.

So, better wording would be that it is one of the barrier to building and operating any sober prediction market business, not necessarily the cause they don't advertise here.

[Russlenat]

Probably it's because prediction market is not a sports gambling per se. And we only see mostly crypto base casinos being promoted here. Not sure if they supported crypto though, but in any case this community is only focus on that two things, sports + crypto.

And from what I have seen here, gamblers doesn't like the idea of prediction market because of pure manipulation from behind.

But if they want to promote here then why not? At least we can see how our community will react or at least they can gauge what our sentiments with them.

Prediction markets are said to operate very much likely with gambling casinos, so I think its very welcome here in the forum. But the question is, would the gamblers here bite this prediction market promotions instead of betting directly into casinos where these people are used to play? And just like you've said, the reputation of prediction market is still questionable, that's probably one of the reasons why there are no massive promotions happening here in the forum.

Or maybe it only takes a single lead before other prediction market promotions will flood in the forum.

[bitbollo]

I would give my explanation. Amount spent on gambling is enourmous.
It's so big that has created one of the bigget industry - or even one of the best use cases for spending crypto.
Most of providers are the same (like for sport or casinos), and they know very well that players would always to use a "new promotion" or just to have few bouses.
it's more easy nowadays purchase these licenses and open them . In some cases I have seen a turnkey option too...
Meanwhile prediction markets can't offer the same options, and there are still a coup'le of operators that are able to make the vast majority of market share.

[Darker45]

There was on one in the past on this forum.

I'm familiar with this one because I got curious about it when it came here. It was a rather strange and fun kind of betting. That was back when Polymarket and Kalshi were still unheard of. I actually signed up there and played both real and play money.

Quite surprisingly, it's alive until now. Got its license from Curaçao first and then Anjouan later on. Some markets have decent volume and hundreds of traders while some have low volume and even just a handful of traders. But it continued to thrive nonetheless.

Perhaps it's about time for the platform to be more aggressive in their marketing. The prediction market has scaled massively since they came here.

[CryptoBuds]

If Polymarket and Kalshi want to come to this forum, it will take them nothing and they can even prefer to advertise. Regulatory and compliance are not the reasons they are not on this forum. The reason is because they do not want to be on this forum.

Agreed, primary reason for this is their target audience and payment ecosystem differ.

Bitcointalk is extremely natural marketing channel for crypto casino. Considerable portion of its user base utilizes cryptocurrency and favors making deposit in BTC & altcoin. likewise signature campaign allow for sustained community exposure.

Situation is somewhat different for prediction market. Although Polymarket is crypto based, its existing collateral strategy center on USDC/pUSD, meaning BTC is not directly its prior trading asset.

Bitcointalk's crypto native audience and signature campaign are natural fit for casino, whereas that fit is comparatively weaker for prediction market.

[Hispo]

Actually, I have seen one of two small prediction markets appearing here on the forum, but they seem not to have much success when comes to volume.
Whether we like it or not, prediction markets are being monopolized by a small number of large fish: polymarket, Kalshi and Binance, so there is little room for a new player to enter into this ecosystem and take any significant percentage of the volume of those other services.

For entrepreneurs, it makes more sense to stick to the classic business model of creating a simple casino, where they don't need a huge volume to remain profitable.

[danherbias07]

Let's just wait. They will probably be here soon.

I think it's because the competition is not that broad yet. The number of prediction markets can still be counted on our fingers. I mean they are not that many, and most of them have the same offers. In gambling, there is sometimes a separation between sports betting, online casinos, and slots.

I would not be surprised if maybe in a year or two they will be here too. Legality can also be a problem, and so do the licenses and restrictions. They still have some issues with many states, so they will probably clean that up first.

[Alex077]

I've noticed that there's a new casino introduced every now and then. They're sprouting like mushrooms. Even here on the forum, there's a new one coming out almost every week.
I wonder why there are no prediction markets, though. We've often read that prediction market is the next big thing. We're all familiar with Polymarket and Kalshi and how they hit the mainstream in a relatively short period of time. They grew from their humble beginnings of a few millions in seed capital not too long ago to a valuation of tens of billions today.
....
Also, it mustn't be about having a gaming license rather than a derivatives exchange license. It only matters in jurisdictions that would be restricted anyway.

I think licensing is far from the only reason, a prediction market needs enough participants who are willing to take opposite sides of the same market. If there aren’t enough users, you get wide spreads, bad prices, and practically empty markets. As a result, new users aren’t interested in trading there, and without new users, there’s no liquidity. It becomes a vicious circle.
There’s also the problem of creating and settling the markets themselves. Someone has to properly define the conditions of an event, choose reliable sources for the outcome, and resolve disputed situations.

 I expect a different scenario instead: existing large crypto casinos and sportsbooks will gradually start adding prediction markets to their platforms. They already have users, capital, marketing, and payment infrastructure, so it will be much easier for them to solve the main problem of a new prediction market - the lack of initial liquidity.