Didn't Notice a Single Prediction Market Promotion Here

[avp2306]

I've noticed that there's a new casino introduced every now and then. They're sprouting like mushrooms. Even here on the forum, there's a new one coming out almost every week.

I wonder why there are no prediction markets, though. We've often read that prediction market is the next big thing. We're all familiar with Polymarket and Kalshi and how they hit the mainstream in a relatively short period of time. They grew from their humble beginnings of a few millions in seed capital not too long ago to a valuation of tens of billions today.

With Anjouan, Curaçao, and other jurisdictions offering cheap and fast license to prediction markets, why aren't we flooded with new competitors until now?

Surely, it must not simply because Polymarket and Kalshi can offer their services to the US while typical Curaçao-registered casinos can't. Stake.com, Roobet, Shuffle, Rollbit, BC.Game, Rainbet, and the rest of the top crypto casinos are registered in either Curaçao or Anjouan. They, too, grew big in the markets outside the US.

Also, it mustn't be about having a gaming license rather than a derivatives exchange license. It only matters in jurisdictions that would be restricted anyway.

I'm a bit curious.

Like they are running a sig campaign and other type of promotion here? But if you mean posting their thread to introduce their Prediction market site, there's actually few tried to post their platform here.

Can't provide a link, since I don't know if they are safe to use or maybe just another scam.

But you could try to go in gambling section then search Prediction market keyword, then there are similar sites will pop up as result.

[KTChampions]

With prediction markets, you need volume!

In casinos it's simple, one hundred guys with $10 dollars come and play slots, the slot provider takes care of the rest, they put a bet on Bayern, the odds provider takes care of the money and payouts, with prediction markets, they come and see the market has 5$ on it so if you bet $10 you break it and everyone goes away, with a casino and a traditional sportsbook the number of players on the site has nothing to do with the potential payout.

There have been plenty of cheap clones around, they've all died because of the same thing: people open the market board and see there is little activity they close it down and go to the big ones.

Licenses have nothing to do with it.

Yes, I agree that this is the primary reason: the very mechanism of prediction markets leads to rapid industry monopolization, whoever wins the liquidity battle captures the entire market. It seems that currently, over 90% of the market is split between Polymarket (a "free" prediction market) and Kalshi (a regulated one).
However, there are niches that exist on neither Polymarket nor, even less so, Kalshi, such as bets on death, nuclear explosions, and the like. It seems to me that prediction markets specializing in such topics could be profitable, but I don't know if they would want to advertise here.

[xenomorfo]

I've noticed that there's a new casino introduced every now and then. They're sprouting like mushrooms. Even here on the forum, there's a new one coming out almost every week.

I wonder why there are no prediction markets, though. We've often read that prediction market is the next big thing. We're all familiar with Polymarket and Kalshi and how they hit the mainstream in a relatively short period of time. They grew from their humble beginnings of a few millions in seed capital not too long ago to a valuation of tens of billions today.

With Anjouan, Curaçao, and other jurisdictions offering cheap and fast license to prediction markets, why aren't we flooded with new competitors until now?

Surely, it must not simply because Polymarket and Kalshi can offer their services to the US while typical Curaçao-registered casinos can't. Stake.com, Roobet, Shuffle, Rollbit, BC.Game, Rainbet, and the rest of the top crypto casinos are registered in either Curaçao or Anjouan. They, too, grew big in the markets outside the US.

Also, it mustn't be about having a gaming license rather than a derivatives exchange license. It only matters in jurisdictions that would be restricted anyway.

I'm a bit curious.

because the sector is very profitable and you don't have to face too many expenses to make him come.
obviously with all this competition the casinos have to invent bonuses and fun games otherwise there is a risk that users will go to the new one that offers more bonuses to acquire users

[Localhostspeed]

Like they are running a sig campaign and other type of promotion here? But if you mean posting their thread to introduce their Prediction market site, there's actually few tried to post their platform here.

Can't provide a link, since I don't know if they are safe to use or maybe just another scam.

But you could try to go in gambling section then search Prediction market keyword, then there are similar sites will pop up as result.

I think that prediction market is huge but there is a regulatory concerns around it. Casino in the first place have alot if blacklash on from different place, introducing prediction market that is banned across many countries is not something many companies would want to start. If you check the big casino companies, they hardly go into prediction market. I once see a prediction market here on some sig but they took it off for some reason, I don't know why.

Maybe this place is not their target, I have seen Polymarket display their ads frequently in there and I don't think I have seen them elsewhere. There could be other places but I haven't come across them and the more I check them, I see the challenge as regulatory concern over some of the points some people have highlighted at the top.

[stompix]

However, there are niches that exist on neither Polymarket nor, even less so, Kalshi, such as bets on death, nuclear explosions, and the like. It seems to me that prediction markets specializing in such topics could be profitable, but I don't know if they would want to advertise here.

For that stuff there is always Augur (when they finish the migration)!
Older than both, way more decentralized, and full of the crazy stuff one could want...but with a huge disadvantage: not that user-friendly.

I think prediction platforms simply don't have the large advertising budgets to promote their platforms on the Bitcointalk forum.

Lol...there are tons of campaigns here that pay less than a good programmer's wage , I don't think there are more than 2 or 3 that would be able to rent a single actual gambling location more than 50sqm for the money they pai in any major city around here.

[Doan9269]

There are platforms that promote prediction markets, and we may not see the presence of prediction markets here on this forum being promoted because it is not known to be gambling. We only have a gambling community on this forum, and prediction markets no, they have no way to stay here, being a forum for Bitcoin discussion. Perhaps some have tried in the past but couldn't achieve anything and decided to leave.

[Patikno]

I think there might be a prediction market promotion on this forum if a suitable connection arises. The issue is; that there are currently no signs of such a connection; so, for now, it seems those promotions have gone unnoticed. Furthermore, I am not convinced that a prediction market requiring KYC would promote itself here, as that conflicts with the principles held by most users, based on my observations. Therefore, any prediction market likely to advertise here would be one; that does not require KYC.

I'm guessing it could be because those platforms usually require KYC and maybe are US centered?

Never tried, just guessing. Forum's full of crypto people who like privacy, just take a look at most of the new ones being promoted. Anon casinos etc. Back to the old days I guess.

Edit: I saw @Ayers post and that's part of my guess (USA).

I totally agree with your point, and that aligns with what I said earlier. Maybe, we won't see platforms like Kalshi being promoted here, but Polymarket (and, others that are not KYC) makes sense, right ?

[Coyster]

and we may not see the presence of prediction markets here on this forum being promoted because it is not known to be gambling.

Of course prediction markets are gambling platforms, lol. They are recognized as gambling services in many jurisdictions, which has led to their ban, because they failed to follow gambling laws in those jurisdictions.

We only have a gambling community on this forum, and prediction markets no, they have no way to stay here, being a forum for Bitcoin discussion.

Lol, that's not the reason bro. If any prediction market decided to promote their platform in bitcointalk, they'd be freely allowed to do so, there are not just so many of them that are successful, so chances one would land here is very unlikely.

[bangjoe]

There are platforms that promote prediction markets, and we may not see the presence of prediction markets here on this forum being promoted because it is not known to be gambling. We only have a gambling community on this forum, and prediction markets no, they have no way to stay here, being a forum for Bitcoin discussion. Perhaps some have tried in the past but couldn't achieve anything and decided to leave.

Didn't Duelbits ever promote its prediction market on forums? some time ago their signature users have a description of the prediction market, is not it the same, or different because it is not the same as Kalshi and Polymarket.
That's just another language, like binary options for example, literally the mechanism is not much like gambling, hence the type of history entered in the gambling industry.

The community here is more ball and casino game gamblers, those who dabble in betting in the prediction market do not last long, then return to their previous habits, and a lot of people who say the prediction market is prone to behind-the-scenes play.

[terrific]

IMO, gamblers are really interested onto specific things these days.
While these prediction markets are a place of betting in odd things and that's the branding that they have.
And so for sports bettors, we know where to go and the demand for prediction market isn't really a lot.
They need no marketing anymore because of how they're given the exposure through the mainstream media.

[MArsland]

Prediction markets are said to operate very much likely with gambling casinos, so I think its very welcome here in the forum. But the question is, would the gamblers here bite this prediction market promotions instead of betting directly into casinos where these people are used to play? And just like you've said, the reputation of prediction market is still questionable, that's probably one of the reasons why there are no massive promotions happening here in the forum.

Or maybe it only takes a single lead before other prediction market promotions will flood in the forum.

I've been thinking about this for quite some time, and am still convinced that the target audience is not on Bitcointalk  even though from a promotional standpoint, it is not much different from gambling. Moreover, there are already many crypto casinos that provide prediction markets in the sportsbook section and until now the attraction is no bigger than sports gambling or slot games.

[goldkingcoiner]

why aren't we flooded with new competitors until now?

With prediction markets, you need volume!

In casinos it's simple, one hundred guys with $10 dollars come and play slots, the slot provider takes care of the rest, they put a bet on Bayern, the odds provider takes care of the money and payouts, with prediction markets, they come and see the market has 5$ on it so if you bet $10 you break it and everyone goes away, with a casino and a traditional sportsbook the number of players on the site has nothing to do with the potential payout.

There have been plenty of cheap clones around, they've all died because of the same thing: people open the market board and see there is little activity they close it down and go to the big ones.

Licenses have nothing to do with it.

Also, prediction markets are manipulated.

I trust a casino more because the regulation on gambling is tried and tested. With prediction markets there is still confusion on how to regulate it and people are using loopholes all the time to the disadvantage of everyone else.

[Agbe]

Because they have not come here to introduce themselves in the forum like other casinos. Though it's high time Prediction platforms also come to the forum for promotions and campaign managers should also visit them and bring them to this place. What I am thinking is they they might not know that this place does exist in the internet or they know but not interested to come here. And that is where interest and awareness comes to play in everything we do.

[red4slash]

The prediction market needs a larger volume in the sense that its visitors must be far away compared to gambling sites in order to continue to grow so it will be difficult for the prediction market, especially for new ones to attract interest in forums that sometimes need greater validation, especially for trust issues.

Not that this is not possible when there is a prediction market on the forum but the possibility of the impact given will be slightly smaller than with gambling sites.
Volume in terms of visitors makes the prediction market more alive because the pattern in the prediction market is more directed to PvP if the volume of visitors is small then they are difficult to develop in contrast to gambling sites that may still be much more able to control their business even though visitors are still few.

[Jegileman]

IMO, gamblers are really interested onto specific things these days.
While these prediction markets are a place of betting in odd things and that's the branding that they have.
And so for sports bettors, we know where to go and the demand for prediction market isn't really a lot.
They need no marketing anymore because of how they're given the exposure through the mainstream media.

I will also feel the same as you, they’re already in the mainstream media and may not really need any mor advertising here. But then on a more interesting note, the casinos here are already all over the places but when a new one launches, they also want to advertise their site here to get more users using their casino. The distinction here is that, there are no plenty of prediction markets sites available now other than the two major ones. Overtime, when there is demand for them and we are new ones keep evolving out, we could see a fight towards advertising their sites in places like this in order to get more customers willing to use their services.

[Findingnemo]

Afaik, prediction market is free to advertise anywhere compared to a casino that is one of the reason it is not promoted here and also they focus mostly the fiat compared to crypto whereas every casino you see is here mostly a crypto casino which accepts fiat too that is a huge difference. And if prediction market hits no where to advertise then we can see them here too.

[Floxynice]

Because they have not come here to introduce themselves in the forum like other casinos. Though it's high time Prediction platforms also come to the forum for promotions and campaign managers should also visit them and bring them to this place. What I am thinking is they they might not know that this place does exist in the internet or they know but not interested to come here. And that is where interest and awareness comes to play in everything we do.

Maybe they are just taking things slowly looking at the nature of the prediction markets. Right now, we can see that the prediction markets are collaborating more with the exchanges and wallets where we see prediction services being offered there for interested people. These are the things we never believed could ever happen.

For now, the prediction markets may be seeing themselves as trading platforms and may just be trying to be careful not to go into ny form of regulatory issues, hence their reason for identifying more with exchanges and wallets for now.

Let's just keep our fingers crossed, nothing is actually impossible. It will only start with one prediction market and then, others will follow.

[Mr_Brilliant$]

Let's put it like this. Casino already has people betting against the house to win. But for prediction market, you are not betting against the house but need people to take opposite side of the bet placed on prediction market. Let me break it down. Casino doesn't need liquidity from people to start. But prediction market needs people and liquidity from those people. There are only two sides when it comes to polymarket and casinos has several games. So I think because of the serious limitations that prediction market has to launch, that's why there are very few prediction market.

[TedMosby]

Unlike casinos where players play against the house, prediction markets are just platforms to gather players to "play" against each other. IMO, it's the possible reason why we see more casino promotion here than prediction market. Casinos need gamblers' money to make a profit. Meanwhile, prediction markets can make a profit whether the player loses or wins due to the platform fee.

So, with different business models, the promotion strategy is also different. Casinos are goal oriented, to make people join, make deposits, and play. They tend to promote it to very niche media, like gambling forums, private gambling groups, etc. They can't promote their services freely on social media. Meanwhile, prediction markets do promotion more like for brand awareness, broader, that's why promotion on forums like Bitcointalk is not necessary anymore. They tend to target bigger media, like social media (X, Instagram, TikTok, etc.). CMIIW.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

I have actually thought about this, wondering why they have not brought their marketing to this forum, may be not the popular Kalshi and polymarket but new prediction platforms and based on my findings, those predictions market focuses their ads and marketing heavily on all the social medias like Facebook, TikTok, YouTube, Reddit, google ads, etc. I guess they probably don't see the community as being able to give them the results that those other channels are giving to them. There are some mobile applications that when you are using them, ads will be popping out and interrupting your activities on that app, this is where they (prediction markets, CEX, etc) are running their ads.