Didn't Notice a Single Prediction Market Promotion Here

[Hispo]

...

There is no limit to the expansion of the business, and this platform could be an avenue to get more users. In my view, Polymarket and Kalshi might not currently have interest on the forum for now. But this doesn't mean that Bitcointalk is not up to their standard. They might have interest in the future; who knows.

The only way I see both Polymarket and Kalshi betting interested in this forum and buying advertising here in the form of signature campaigns and other kind of campaigns, it would be if their services started to focus more in Bitcoin as standard asset, instead of stablecoins like USDC and USDT. Naturally, being this forum the origin of the idea of Bitcoin as we know it, then they would feel appealed to try to reach out to whales and og investors of Bitcoin, so they will get them to desposit their coins on their prediction markets.

That is just my personal opinion though, sometimes things which do not make immediate sense happen, astonishing a lot of people in the process.

[Charles-Tim]

it would be if their services started to focus more in Bitcoin as standard asset, instead of stablecoins like USDC and USDT.

You mean Polymarket and Kalshi to be rendering their service in bitcoin? Or you mean they should campaign on this forum in bitcoin? But if I get you correctly, I think you mean their service on their platform should be mainly in bitcoin. That is not necessary at all, it can be in altcoins. If they pay people on this forum in bitcoin, it will be on the service board. If the pay is in altcoins, it will be on the bounty (altcoin) board.

It is worth knowing that Polymarket accept bitcoin and bitcoin lightning. I do not know much about Kalshi.

[terrific]

They're the big platforms and they're too big for now to advertise.
Which means that even if they don't have any advertising in any platform, they know that people will still search for them in the first results.
That's a monopoly in there and if ever there will be new platforms that shall rise, they'll have a hard time beating these two without even marketing.

Are prediction markets bigger than casinos that actively advertise themselves through any platform? The prediction markets may not be flooding this forum yet, but their reason is definitely not because they are too big to advertise. To me, the prediction market is still very small, they are yet to reach that massive global market popularity that is expected of them. The prediction markets need this forum more than any gambling company. This will give them the opportunity to meet a larger market accross the world. For now, polymarket and Kalshi are the most popular markets, how about others?

It's for you to decide how big kalshi and polymarket is.
The volume for both, Polymarket and Kalshi have crossed $150 billion in combined lifetime trading volume
Even if you tell that they need the forum. They're already big and that can't be denied.
The popularity they have may not even be the same as the others that have advertised or has an active campaign here.

[Josefjix]

...

There is no limit to the expansion of the business, and this platform could be an avenue to get more users. In my view, Polymarket and Kalshi might not currently have interest on the forum for now. But this doesn't mean that Bitcointalk is not up to their standard. They might have interest in the future; who knows.

The only way I see both Polymarket and Kalshi betting interested in this forum and buying advertising here in the form of signature campaigns and other kind of campaigns, it would be if their services started to focus more in Bitcoin as standard asset, instead of stablecoins like USDC and USDT. Naturally, being this forum the origin of the idea of Bitcoin as we know it, then they would feel appealed to try to reach out to whales and og investors of Bitcoin, so they will get them to desposit their coins on their prediction markets.

There is nothing wrong with those prediction market gurus to start promotional campaigns here, maybe they haven't fully placed their eyes here for marketing, It doesn't matter whether the currency used mainly for prediction are USDT and USDC, so long as it's crypto and I'm sure Bitcointalker will participate in it.

[Swordsoffreedom]

The forecast market, or more precisely, the markets of companies that organize forecast bets and trade them, are structured in a winner-take-all manner. And forecast markets, as many have already noted, are very sensitive to a lack of liquidity. Most likely, at the very beginning, the company itself should provide some liquidity to attract potential players. If you don't have liquidity, no one will come to you. This is bad for start-ups, but good for established projects that have been in the market for a while. It gives them a competitive advantage.

I agree with your point about liquidity here. But in my opinion problem isn't just about initial liquidity. In prediction market liquidity itself becomes part of user acquisition. If I see wide spread and thin order book on any new platform then the problem is obvious. And if I realize I can't easily exit my position then why would I trade there?

Same time, liquidity won't increase unless traders show up. It is something like chicken and egg problem.
That is where pioneer good platform have many advantage. You will see their existing user, market maker and trading volume all working in tandem. That is why simply starting any new website isn't enough to generate kind of liquidity seen on Polymarket or Kalshi.

[sunsilk]

I think what they focus with is on the other ways of marketing through social media. I have seen some ads on the other platforms for the two, kalshi and polymarket.

But it's going to give them more boost if they'll also advertise in the forum where they know that this is the target niche and everyone has cryptocurrency to bet on their prediction market.

And even not a signature campaign but by just being active in the forum and having a representative and thread, show they care for this community but we don't know.

This can easily draw the attention of the masses with such a global level marketing strategy. Crypto forum communities can still be considered the most appropriate target since their activists are the ones with liquid capital and having the first hand experience with the predictive trading system.

Official ambassadors that are in charge of constantly monitoring the discussion are indicative of open mindedness in the long term. This can be done through organic loyalty by being committed and being committed through a two way communication, leaving people with a feeling that they are appreciated, way beyond the ability of visual promotions to leave behind the impressions on the minds of a wide audience.

They have specific target market in the forum but I think that they don't put that at priority because, once they hit the other platforms for their marketing.

It will be easy for the specific crypto communities and forum to know them and they have hit it, we eventually get to know them.

You know that the predictions market and Kalshi use a different model of business that's very distinct from casino platform and seeing that there are more casinos here, seeing that regulators are still trying to make the predictions market and Kalshi be guided by same casino platform regulations of which the predictions market and Kalshi see themselves as different, could all be reasons why they prefer to be or not be on a forum mostly dominated by casino platforms with more users.

Even if they are here and build a good exposure for themselves as they try to do on social media platforms, it might still be a difficult business that won't keep gamblers hooked in or stimulated and excited always as casino business is.

I think that you see them totally different. The volume that's coming on them can't be ignored but impressive.

They are not a different business to gambling but they know how their customers have been hooked to them and it's hard to resist despite that they don't have much marketing in specific areas.

[Hispo]

it would be if their services started to focus more in Bitcoin as standard asset, instead of stablecoins like USDC and USDT.

You mean Polymarket and Kalshi to be rendering their service in bitcoin? Or you mean they should campaign on this forum in bitcoin? But if I get you correctly, I think you mean their service on their platform should be mainly in bitcoin. That is not necessary at all, it can be in altcoins. If they pay people on this forum in bitcoin, it will be on the service board. If the pay is in altcoins, it will be on the bounty (altcoin) board.

It is worth knowing that Polymarket accept bitcoin and bitcoin lightning. I do not know much about Kalshi.

It is an idea I had on what would it take for those companies to start doing business and pay for advertising here on the forum.
I was aware Polymarket took Bitcoin LN, but I did not know they already accepted Bitcoin in the main chain, that is a good step forward to continue to increase the adoption of Bitcoin within the ecosystem of prediction markets.

Perhaps you are right, they may not need to fully adopt the Bitcoin philosophy, they can continue to deal with USDC and USDT, but if they do some market study, they would realize it would be more convenient for them to be visible in the Bitcoin side of the forum, instead of just staying in the alternative currency side of it in the long term. I say it because of the traffic.

[GreatArkansas]

The forecast market, or more precisely, the markets of companies that organize forecast bets and trade them, are structured in a winner-take-all manner. And forecast markets, as many have already noted, are very sensitive to a lack of liquidity. Most likely, at the very beginning, the company itself should provide some liquidity to attract potential players. If you don't have liquidity, no one will come to you. This is bad for start-ups, but good for established projects that have been in the market for a while. It gives them a competitive advantage.

I agree with your point about liquidity here. But in my opinion problem isn't just about initial liquidity. In prediction market liquidity itself becomes part of user acquisition. If I see wide spread and thin order book on any new platform then the problem is obvious. And if I realize I can't easily exit my position then why would I trade there?

Same time, liquidity won't increase unless traders show up. It is something like chicken and egg problem.
That is where pioneer good platform have many advantage. You will see their existing user, market maker and trading volume all working in tandem. That is why simply starting any new website isn't enough to generate kind of liquidity seen on Polymarket or Kalshi.

Same. Liquidity is the moat. New prediction market without market makers just looks empty, so people stay on the big two.
Maybe one of the reasons is these prediction markets are still new? They still have less competitors compared to these traditional casino platforms?

For me that also explain why casino ads flood here more, casinos don't need two-sided books the same way.

[bakasabo]

Maybe one of the reasons is these prediction markets are still new? They still have less competitors compared to these traditional casino platforms?

For me that also explain why casino ads flood here more, casinos don't need two-sided books the same way.

I think that is the true reason. Also why should prediction market run a promotion somewhere, when people promote them for free just by talking about it all the time? There aint as many promotions markets right now to fight for a customer. As long as they feel they earn enough, they dont need to worry about competitors.

However, I wish bounty manager would contact Kalshi or Polymarket marketing departments and offer promotion here. Why not be first to promote while niche is still new and empty, and people keep on coming.

[ImGenius]

I think prediction markets did not catch up to the casino level right now. In a new casino, which started fresh, they can just grab some api and bookmakers to run their own casino. Casino did not have to set up its own game in this case. So that is why the new casino business is still there if they wanted to run a business.

But in a prediction market, a unified bookmaker has not been created yet , which is why you need to set up everything on your own. Ig it would become like a traditional casino soon enough. Since the prediction market is a new meta, it would take some time to mature.

[suzanne5223]

I'm a bit curious.

Not having a prediction market that does market promotion on this forum has nothing to do with license or jurisdiction restrictions.
As of the moment of posting this, I believe the major issue is that this forum marketing is something the prediction market is not familiar with. In other words, it is something that's currently not relevant to them, but that may change in the future, especially now that the 2 leading prediction markets are working on making the moves to inject crypto into the US prediction markets.

[KTChampions]

However, there are niches that exist on neither Polymarket nor, even less so, Kalshi, such as bets on death, nuclear explosions, and the like. It seems to me that prediction markets specializing in such topics could be profitable, but I don't know if they would want to advertise here.

For that stuff there is always Augur (when they finish the migration)!
Older than both, way more decentralized, and full of the crazy stuff one could want...but with a huge disadvantage: not that user-friendly.
~

Alright, I’ll make a note of that. Up until now, Polymarket has been enough for everything I needed, though it seems to have gone downhill a bit lately (fees and trying to appease various scumbags), still, it’s perfectly usable even now. There are no commissions on politics, and none on sports either if you're a market maker (this info was accurate the last time I checked - haha, things are always changing there).
I'm waiting for your threads. Stop sitting in Meta and create a proper, self-moderated gambling thread 

[Floczy]

Unlike casinos that relies in house edge for funds availability, the prediction market on the other hand needs sufficient liquidity for proper functioning.

For one to buy a prediction they will need sellers to make the buy possible, and new prediction markets might have that as a challenge except the turn up of players are incredibly massive and that might not be possible with the already existing poly market that has incredible user base, players switching to a new prediction market and keeping up with the liquidity demand will be a major barrier.

[qurbanshah02]

I think prediction markets did not catch up to the casino level right now. In a new casino, which started fresh, they can just grab some api and bookmakers to run their own casino. Casino did not have to set up its own game in this case. So that is why the new casino business is still there if they wanted to run a business.

In gambling, we have a lot of games that we can win and lose by playing, but in the prediction market, we have the same day-to-day work, so that trend has not happened yet. Although gambling dens are growing a lot and people have become very fond of it, new ads are coming day by day and there is a lot of promotion. Those who want to strengthen their reputation will use the new one, so everyone has their own and new one. Although in 2027 we will be able to see a lot of gambling and we can know the number of their trends. Now people's business is moving towards gambling because they are getting a lot of profit from here, due to which people are starting it now.

[9ja Amaka]

I'm a bit curious.

Not having a prediction market that does market promotion on this forum has nothing to do with license or jurisdiction restrictions.
As of the moment of posting this, I believe the major issue is that this forum marketing is something the prediction market is not familiar with. In other words, it is something that's currently not relevant to them, but that may change in the future, especially now that the 2 leading prediction markets are working on making the moves to inject crypto into the US prediction markets.

Many companies in diverse industries are not familiar with the Bitcointalk forum. Even if they are familiar with it, they have not seen an ideal reason to promote their platform on the forum.

In the meantime, Kalshi and Polymarket have already gained the attention needed. I do not see how running a promotional campaign on the forum will help the platform grow.

[Pandu Geddon]

Many companies in diverse industries are not familiar with the Bitcointalk forum. Even if they are familiar with it, they have not seen an ideal reason to promote their platform on the forum.

In the meantime, Kalshi and Polymarket have already gained the attention needed. I do not see how running a promotional campaign on the forum will help the platform grow.

A new prediction market platform that might be more focused on the use of cryptocurrency that might be interested in promoting their brand here. Prediction markets are being talked about a lot right now. But only a few are popular, it is actually not impossible that in the future we will see brands from new prediction markets promoting them in forum.

[Reid]

Licensing issues or probably because they believe the hype for them is enough, so they won't need to be advertised way too much.

I don't blame them if that is the case. They have been in the news for many times and that's because many are against them or the governments are against them. Then, add that case about whether they are a gambling industry or not.
So much news came out about prediction markets that it boosted their popularity more instead of taking them down by those who don't want them.

[internetional]

Liquidity is the moat. New prediction market without market makers just looks empty, so people stay on the big two.
Maybe one of the reasons is these prediction markets are still new? They still have less competitors compared to these traditional casino platforms?

For me that also explain why casino ads flood here more, casinos don't need two-sided books the same way.

You could build a broker interface that doesn't create its own liquidity at all, but simply routes users' orders to Polymarket, Kalshi, and other existing markets.

How technically difficult is it to read order books or quotes from several prediction markets? Could the broker show users the best available bid/ask across multiple platforms?Could it automatically route a trade to whichever platform offers the best terms? Could it combine liquidity from several platforms into a single virtual order book?

If all of this is possible, such a broker wouldn't need any capital of its own. It would only need access to the smart contracts of the underlying markets.

The only question is how to handle differences in contract wording, expiration dates, settlement rules, and the sources used to determine outcomes. And, of course, whether users would come if the broker added its own markup - because without one, the business model wouldn't work.

[Davidvictorson]

I wonder why there are no prediction markets, though. We've often read that prediction market is the next big thing. We're all familiar with Polymarket and Kalshi and how they hit the mainstream in a relatively short period of time. They grew from their humble beginnings of a few millions in seed capital not too long ago to a valuation of tens of billions today.

My common sense reason for this is that
1. Some casinos now have the prediction market feature as part of the business.
2. Stand alone prediction market companies are still growing therefore, the competition is not so much that they would need to do adverts here.
3. May the prediction markets already predict this forum to be strictly gambling - casion, sportsbetting focus than on prediction and as such they may not be received with so much enthusiasm.

[Yorubek]

But in a prediction market, a unified bookmaker has not been created yet , which is why you need to set up everything on your own. Ig it would become like a traditional casino soon enough. Since the prediction market is a new meta, it would take some time to mature.

Most gamblers have become accustomed to gambling in casinos and have built their confidence in casinos, but most gamblers have not yet built their trust or confidence in the prediction market, which is why the prediction market is not being created overnight like a casino. However, the prediction market will be able to create its own position among gamblers. However, I do not really know whether this process will soon become like a conventional casino, but I can predict that the prediction market will gradually become stronger.