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Author Topic: CLARITY Act odds crash to 18% as Dems reject GOP's "final" offer  (Read 42 times)
ObeyKnock (OP)
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Today at 11:06:51 AM
 #1

https://i.ibb.co/nNJcXp6M/IMG-20260915-154950-585.jpg


Today's cloture vote failed because it needed 60 to pass and the GOP has 53. They needed at least 9 Dems to support it. So I'm guessing that pushes this past the midterms in November... But it's possible it's not done for 2026 and will follow the typical senate dance where leaderships act like they're not gonna reach an agreement but ultimately do.

The final version that GOP announced this past weekend wasn't enough despite 126 changes that address ethics, disclosure, state AG enforcement etc. Warner said ethics language is not good enough with Warnock and Gallego chiming in, Banks don't love it bc loopholes re rewards on stablecoins still there, Senate Dems came up with counterproposal, Polymarket "Clarity Act signed into law in 2026" contract went as high as 35% when they announced the latest version on Sunday but now it's back to 16-18% once the rejection landed.

Thoughts?


Source: https://news.bitcoin.com/regulation-and-legal/clarity-act-odds-slide-to-18-as-banks-and-state-ags-push-back/
Fortify
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Today at 06:31:48 PM
 #2

I'm not sure Dems want to work with the Republicans on anything these days so there's little chance of securing that many votes, until that manchild in office who fell through the floor when it comes to any sort of standards or dignity in politics. If the president is so pathetic to keep regurgitating "dumocrats" then it really shows the only time he wants to work with you is when he gets something out of it, a very divisive leader who spreads nothing but hate. In two years when he's gone, these things can get going again without the stench of his corrupt hands touching it. The fact that he's running his own ponzi scheme alt coin at the moment shows that the law can not be called legitimate and all the Republicans in Senate/Congress are just puppets to his cult - there is no real resistance or push back on anything of the disgraceful things he says, so they're all complicit.

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Filicius
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Today at 07:06:00 PM
 #3

That's the reason why Bitcoin's price dropped today? It seemed that the week started well, so I was surprised to see the loss of 5% today, although it is nothing catastrophic or out of the ordinary, but it has made us lose support.

As the OP says, perhaps it is nothing more than a dance to finally end up accepting the new regulation, but for the moment its effect is being felt in the cryptocurrency markets, and not only in the odds of the prediction markets.

Dogedegen
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Today at 08:35:57 PM
 #4

It is sad to see this happening because it seems that they really tried a bit to give in to the demands about ethics. As you mention many changes were made that were around the key issues that Democrats claim to have with this. I don't know what their problems are, and I also don't like this kind of vote along the party line politics anywhere. It can't be possible that no politician from one party independently is not satisfied with the bill, that is very improbable when it comes to humans. Politicians should vote on laws based only on the content of the law, and if they are satisfied with it they should vote like that. Did they even somewhere write exactly what they want from it or are they just making general statements like even better ethics? If they are not specific enough it can be hard to deliver what they want.

That's the reason why Bitcoin's price dropped today? It seemed that the week started well, so I was surprised to see the loss of 5% today, although it is nothing catastrophic or out of the ordinary, but it has made us lose support.

As the OP says, perhaps it is nothing more than a dance to finally end up accepting the new regulation, but for the moment its effect is being felt in the cryptocurrency markets, and not only in the odds of the prediction markets.
There was again belief that it was going to pass or that it had high chance of passing so the market was a bit bullish, but these news contradicted that. Also there is fears of another interest rate hike so both of these things happened around the same time. A loss of 5% is very small for Bitcoin.


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