Why your Stake VIP progress bar says 46% when you have wagered more than half

[rakebackpaid]

This one comes from a real screenshot and it has caught out every Stake player I have shown it to, so it is worth a thread of its own.

A Bronze player wrote to me confused. His VIP page said he was 46.8% of the way to Silver. Silver needs $50,000 of lifetime wagering. He read the bar as "46.8% of $50,000", which is about $23,400, and he knew he had wagered more than that. Either the bar was broken or Stake was short-changing him.

Neither. The bar does not run from zero to the next level. It runs from the level you are on to the next one. Bronze is $10,000 and Silver is $50,000, so the bar for a Bronze player spans the $40,000 in between. 46.8% of $40,000 is $18,720, which put him at roughly $28,700 lifetime, about $21,300 short of Silver. He checked his own figures and it matched to the dollar.

The general rule, for any level:

Code:

lifetime wagered = current level threshold + (bar percentage x gap to next level)

Stake's thresholds, from their own VIP page: Bronze $10k, Silver $50k, Gold $100k, Platinum I $250k, and it keeps climbing from there. So the same 46.8% means $28,700 for a Bronze player, $73,400 for a Silver player, and $170,200 for a Gold player. The percentage on its own tells you almost nothing until you know which two thresholds it sits between.

Why it matters beyond curiosity: people decide whether to push for the next level based on that bar, and the money involved is real. A Bronze player who thinks he is $26,600 short when he is actually $21,300 short has misjudged by $5,000 of wagering, which on 4% slots is about $200 of expected loss either way. Read the bar properly before you make that call, and ideally do not make that call at all, because the level bonuses are a small fraction of what the wagering to reach them costs.

As far as I can find, Stake does not document this anywhere. If someone has seen it written down by Stake, I would like the link.

[alani123]

OP that's a lot of text just to explain how a progress bar works. There is nothing wrong from Stake's part here.

The issue most people don't take into account with VIP levels in general is that... It's an added bonus and shouldn't lead you to gamble more than you would anyway. Regardless of limits people will fall for timeless tricks and be lured to lose even more. So that's the most important thing to consider. If someone isn't considering simple arithmetic when gambling and is just lured by a progress bar, what can I say?

[Hispo]

OP that's a lot of text just to explain how a progress bar works. There is nothing wrong from Stake's part here.

The issue most people don't take into account with VIP levels in general is that... It's an added bonus and shouldn't lead you to gamble more than you would anyway. Regardless of limits people will fall for timeless tricks and be lured to lose even more. So that's the most important thing to consider. If someone isn't considering simple arithmetic when gambling and is just lured by a progress bar, what can I say?

There is something appealing when comes to seeing a progress bar to slowly getting filled, it is pure psychological strategy for casinos in general to keep their gamblers engaged.
Funnily enough it is also applied to other media, like videogames, that is why developers keep the same mechanic of progress bars when it comes to missions and experience in order to advance to the next level.

I think OP did nothing wrong by bringing this information to people, but in the end you are right... It would be more important to discuss how those bars are used to lure people to gamble beyond their own limits.

[rakebackpaid]

There is nothing wrong from Stake's part here. The issue most people don't take into account with VIP levels in general is that... It's an added bonus and shouldn't lead you to gamble more than you would anyway.

Agreed on both counts, and I did not say Stake had done anything wrong. The bar is correct, it is just read wrong by most of the people looking at it. Your second point is the one that matters and it is why I bothered writing it up: the bar is the single most effective nudge on the page, and a nudge you can put a dollar figure on is weaker than one you cannot. "46%" feels close. "$21,300 of wagering, which on slots costs you about $850 in expected loss to unlock a level bonus worth a fraction of that" does not feel close at all. The arithmetic is not there to defend Stake or attack them. It is there to make the lure smaller.

[Cointxz]

There is nothing wrong from Stake's part here. The issue most people don't take into account with VIP levels in general is that... It's an added bonus and shouldn't lead you to gamble more than you would anyway.

Agreed on both counts, and I did not say Stake had done anything wrong. The bar is correct, it is just read wrong by most of the people looking at it. Your second point is the one that matters and it is why I bothered writing it up: the bar is the single most effective nudge on the page, and a nudge you can put a dollar figure on is weaker than one you cannot. "46%" feels close. "$21,300 of wagering, which on slots costs you about $850 in expected loss to unlock a level bonus worth a fraction of that" does not feel close at all. The arithmetic is not there to defend Stake or attack them. It is there to make the lure smaller.

The problem is the narrative especially this one.

Either the bar was broken or Stake was short-changing him.

There’s a time that our assumed wagered count is not accurate since Stake is just showing the progress based on the user total wager. But I believe including the actual wager count together with the progress bar will solve this kind of conflict.
 

[Bryan jessy]

These progressive leads keeps people trying so hard to get to their desired level because of the benefits that comes with it, somehow it entices players, few years back there was this Ponzi scheme that year that some of my friends in school was into even after knowing it was a Ponzi scheme they kept investment their money, and the game has leads it goes progressively with the Benefits increasing as a player levels up and the higher level offers cool profit than the lower level so knowing it was a Ponzi scheme people where trying to get to the highest level and get their profit before the game crashes and at the end lot of persons lost their money, so these levels are really significant tool to keep people playing the game.

[danherbias07]

Years ago, I did try doing that. Forcing my way to the next VIP level because I was curious about how much bonus I would receive. Upon receiving the bonus, that's when I realized it was not that much. That is when I decided to just simply play games or bet on sports without even thinking about that VIP bar.
It's a perk. Not something that will enhance our chances of winning. The house edge will be the same, and our chances in sports betting are still 50-50. It will be so much better if we just enjoy the games, and when that bonus comes or the VIP bar is filled, we will also enjoy it more.

[348Judah]

Sometimes you go to be more cautious on the progress bar to see your achievement based on what you have, and the more you are taking the risk to gamble and play more to increase your chances of having a higher VIP level, but not considering the risk this might be causing while trying to achieve, which is automated to process every transaction in relation to how you gamble and the level you should be, this shows that it is either your performance level or the system automation is yet to reflect your accurate VIP level, and this means nothing.

[swogerino]

When it comes to wagering I don't think anyone will do it through slots to reach the next level as it takes a lot of time and only people who did not spend sometime searching for wagering strategies may end up trying to level up through slots. So for informed people they will always be reading through forums or Youtube and will always end up using a dice strategy, usually the 98% one or some strategy with many conditions created by enthusiasts who loves wagering and passing levels fast.

[SportbetOne]

The arithmetic is not there to defend Stake or attack them. It is there to make the lure smaller.

Good breakdown on the math. Most people just see a percentage and assume they're almost there, not realizing they still have to bleed tens of thousands in handle to close the gap.
The level-up bonus never covers the expected loss from forcing that extra volume anyway. Useful sanity check for anyone tempted to churn slots just for a rank badge.

[Bitinity]

As far as I can find, Stake does not document this anywhere. If someone has seen it written down by Stake, I would like the link.

Actually Stake provide it under their help center page as you can see below:

source: How to calculate your VIP Progress?
I think what is given in above example is the same as the formula you give in this thread, so you do it correctly. It is reasonable if some new players get confused with the progress bar because they count it from zero (not from the level where they are currently on) but I do not think it is a big problem as it is basically can be easily learned by the example given under the help and center page.

[OsaiEmma]

This one comes from a real screenshot and it has caught out every Stake player I have shown it to, so it is worth a thread of its own.

A Bronze player wrote to me confused. His VIP page said he was 46.8% of the way to Silver. Silver needs $50,000 of lifetime wagering. He read the bar as "46.8% of $50,000", which is about $23,400, and he knew he had wagered more than that. Either the bar was broken or Stake was short-changing him.

Neither. The bar does not run from zero to the next level. It runs from the level you are on to the next one. Bronze is $10,000 and Silver is $50,000, so the bar for a Bronze player spans the $40,000 in between. 46.8% of $40,000 is $18,720, which put him at roughly $28,700 lifetime, about $21,300 short of Silver. He checked his own figures and it matched to the dollar.

The general rule, for any level:

Code:

lifetime wagered = current level threshold + (bar percentage x gap to next level)

Damn! I had my head spinning there for a second —it seems I do have a weakness when it comes to progression. The logic behind it is crazy: If 0 - 50k is silver, naturally, at 25k you're halfway there, right? But due to the steps in-between (the bronze level), there is now a hiccup, and I was like, why on earth is this happening. I took a pen and paper, trying to see why this is happening, and this is what I found:

50% of 50k = 25k
50% of 50k - 10k (40k)= 20k

The difference between the two instances is,
50k - 40k = 10k
And
25k - 20k = 5k

The difference from both sides are not the same, their differences is 10k - 5k = 5k

To get the true 50% of 50k from the second step of bronze to silver, I added the difference to the already established 50% of 50k, so the answer became 25k + 5k = 30k.

A general formula:

X = next progress
Y= differences between previous progress and next progress
Z = previous progress
p = percentage progress

Progress level (#) = Z - (X•p - Y•p) + X•p -----------> using the calculations I made above
# = Z -X•p + Y•p + X•p

Final formula:
# = Z + Y•p

I guess this is the same formula given by OP. Math is fun.

[Somegory]

Maybe this topic will let you realise that chasing VIP level isn't always good for your mind, because you will eventually start the rat race to reach the top goal, not healthy for you IMO.

As you can see replies on here says something similar, there is nothing wrong with stake, the problem is you running after something that's not even needed, who tells you that VIP accounts don't have big losses too?

The only set of people that casinos have respect for and fear are their promoters, those YouTubers that promote casinos by playing games on YouTube showing their audience that VIP level isn't bad at all, they will surely win more but not you.

[CryptoBuds]

source: How to calculate your VIP Progress?
I think what is given in above example is the same as the formula you give in this thread, so you do it correctly. It is reasonable if some new players get confused with the progress bar because they count it from zero (not from the level where they are currently on) but I do not think it is a big problem as it is basically can be easily learned by the example given under the help and center page.

Nice, they've actually explicitly provided same method. This example discusses calculating percentage based on $40k gap between Bronze and Silver tier. This part has actually been documented for long time, OP likely isn't aware of it.

Even knowing this formula UI can easily be misread. When any user sees 46.8%, they might naturally assume it represent 46.8% of $50k target. Without knowing formula it's tough to gauge where their actual lifetime wagering volume stand.

Andif you are sport bettor this calculation is even more problematic. That's because Stake currently allocate 3x weight to sport wagering when calculating VIP progress. You can't directly compare actual wagering activity of casino player vs sportsbook player based solely on displayed percentage.

[Swordsoffreedom]

As far as I can find, Stake does not document this anywhere. If someone has seen it written down by Stake, I would like the link.

Details breakdown: Stake VIP Program Explained - Levels & Rewards

In addition to the Help Center, Stake has also documented this mathematical formula on their official blog.

The problem is 99% of player start playing based on guesswork, looking only at their profile's progress bar, without reading terms or Help Center article.

Anyway, I agree with you, forcing yourself to wager just to level up your VIP status is complete folly.
The calculation in your post will give many player a reality check. Thanks for sharing!

[rakebackpaid]

Actually Stake provide it under their help center page as you can see below: source: How to calculate your VIP Progress?

Thank you, that is the link I was missing and I stand corrected: it is documented, at help.stake.com/en/articles/4974712, with the same $40,000 gap worked as the example. I will cite it in the write-up so nobody has to take the formula on my word, and Swordsoffreedom adds that the blog has it too. CryptoBuds has the remaining point right, though: the article exists, but the bar itself gives no hint that it starts from your current level rather than zero, and a player who has not read that page will misread it every time. The fix is one line of text under the bar, which is Stake's to add, not ours.

Maybe this topic will let you realise that chasing VIP level isn't always good for your mind, because you will eventually start the rat race to reach the top goal

Agreed without reservation, and it is worth saying in a thread that is otherwise about arithmetic. The formula is useful for one thing only: knowing where you actually stand so that you are not surprised. It is not a reason to wager toward anything. The rakeback on the way to Silver is a few dollars per $1,000, and the level itself pays a small bonus against a gap of $40,000 that the house edge takes a cut of on the way. Anyone who finds themselves wagering to move a bar rather than because they wanted to play should treat that as the signal to stop, and the honest version of any rakeback site says so out loud.

[Africolo]

Years ago, I did try doing that. Forcing my way to the next VIP level because I was curious about how much bonus I would receive. Upon receiving the bonus, that's when I realized it was not that much. That is when I decided to just simply play games or bet on sports without even thinking about that VIP bar.
It's a perk. Not something that will enhance our chances of winning. The house edge will be the same, and our chances in sports betting are still 50-50. It will be so much better if we just enjoy the games, and when that bonus comes or the VIP bar is filled, we will also enjoy it more.

Gambling is just all about luck and not the VIP bar and bonuses that we see and get carried away with and wants to by all means stake and loose at the long run, it's better to always stick with the sports betting than going for the VIP and still lose, there's no better chances to winning than when one is lucky.

The VIP bar shouldn't allow us bet what ordinary we won't have because we want to make more profits because you will even noticed that it the same just as you have said, I don't see anything special with it as it doesn't enhance winning either, the VIP bar needs a gambler that is mathematically inclined and can navigate his way through figures to understand what he is staking so if one don't really understand it then normal sports betting is mostly like to be preferred for such person so he could enjoy his bets and win games depending on his luck.

[YellowSwap]

To be honest if stake start giving out free VIP level right now no single gamblers will say no to it, everyone likes VIP treatments but I feared it the most for my own reasons, maybe it's because I am a small gambler.

I choose to remain this way for my own safety purposes, I know my weakness and I know very well that if I set my mind on VIP level I will easily fall into the trap of chasing, I don't want to end up this way.

It's easier to be in control when you gamble with very small amount of money, it's also easier to be in control when you aren't chasing loses or finding ways to gain more bonuses like this VIP level thing.

[Sammysmart001]

Nice, they've actually explicitly provided same method. This example discusses calculating percentage based on $40k gap between Bronze and Silver tier. This part has actually been documented for long time, OP likely isn't aware of it.

Even knowing this formula UI can easily be misread. When any user sees 46.8%, they might naturally assume it represent 46.8% of $50k target. Without knowing formula it's tough to gauge where their actual lifetime wagering volume stand.

Andif you are sport bettor this calculation is even more problematic. That's because Stake currently allocate 3x weight to sport wagering when calculating VIP progress. You can't directly compare actual wagering activity of casino player vs sportsbook player based solely on displayed percentage.

The big issue here is, decision can still be influence to keep gambling even with the understanding of how progress bar works. Seeing the range of 80% or even 90% alone will gives you this feeling that you are alrady close so to want to stop that moment will just look like you are wasting the progress you have made already.

This were the separation of progress you have already made and money you are will to risk next should taken note of, the reason for you increase in your bets shouldn’t be because you are close to next VIP level because weather you reach the next level or not the amount already wagered is gone.   

[Hispo]

To be honest if stake start giving out free VIP level right now no single gamblers will say no to it, everyone likes VIP treatments but I feared it the most for my own reasons, maybe it's because I am a small gambler.

I choose to remain this way for my own safety purposes, I know my weakness and I know very well that if I set my mind on VIP level I will easily fall into the trap of chasing, I don't want to end up this way.

It's easier to be in control when you gamble with very small amount of money, it's also easier to be in control when you aren't chasing loses or finding ways to gain more bonuses like this VIP level thing.

I am also a rather small and casual gambler and I completely get what you say. If I had a very high VIP status on any casino, I would feel it would be a waste not to gamble while having such status on the casino, so I would gamble more and put aside more money than usual in order to go after bonuses and perks which are offered to VIP with a good monthly wager volume.

It is better to try to ignore one's VIP status (or lack of it), and allow those VIP bars to get filled naturally, without pushing it.