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Author Topic: Why did bitcoin value fall?  (Read 3537 times)
protonbeam
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April 06, 2014, 04:56:45 PM
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Why did the value of 1 BTC fall from ~1100 USD in December to ~450 now? I can understand volatility for a couple 100 dollars even, but the value has almost halved. Is this due to the Mt. Gox hacking? 
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April 06, 2014, 05:04:29 PM
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A fall from $1100 was pretty much guaranteed considering the insane speed at which the price rose to get there. There's tons of discussion about why the price fell to where it is now, but the main factors that are often cited are the MtGox fiasco, as well as all the uncertainty coming from China.

It's really impossible to tie down exactly why a price fell. Some people probably lost confidence and tried to cash out into USD, enough people do this with a high enough amount of coins, and the prices sinks. What motivated all of them isn't really possible to determine.
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April 06, 2014, 05:14:06 PM
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Why did the value of 1 BTC fall from ~1100 USD in December to ~450 now? I can understand volatility for a couple 100 dollars even, but the value has almost halved. Is this due to the Mt. Gox hacking? 

Those are more speculations IMO, but I believe reasons are clear:
1. Mt.Gox
2. Other exchanges suffers attacks
3. Charlie S.
4. Then it was not bad Smiley until
5. ITS
6. China (maybe yes/maybe no)

but all of those means nothing Wink Bitcoin is not 1 year old project and it is very strong even with all of those issues there are plenty of good news too.

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April 06, 2014, 05:18:18 PM
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IRS, Mt Gox, PBOC, Google, masses got distracted...


http://www.thebitcoinchannel.com/

https://www.youtube.com/user/BitcoinChannel

protonbeam
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April 06, 2014, 05:21:51 PM
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So is this a good time to buy some bitcoins?
LMGTFY
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April 06, 2014, 05:23:27 PM
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Why did the value of 1 BTC fall from ~1100 USD in December to ~450 now? I can understand volatility for a couple 100 dollars even, but the value has almost halved. Is this due to the Mt. Gox hacking?  

Those are more speculations IMO, but I believe reasons are clear:
1. Mt.Gox
2. Other exchanges suffers attacks
3. Charlie S.
4. Then it was not bad Smiley until
5. ITS
6. China (maybe yes/maybe no)

but all of those means nothing Wink Bitcoin is not 1 year old project and it is very strong even with all of those issues there are plenty of good news too.



Satoshi went public with Bitcoin in 2009... I've been registered on bitcointalk since 2011. Not sure where you got the idea it was not yet 1 year old...

Back to the OP's question, this is Bitstamp's price chart for "all data" from Bitcoincharts - you can see than in April 2013 price went from over USD200 to under USD100 - and going further back similar falls occur with surprising regularity.

Edit: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#tgSza1gWMAzm1g20za2gWMAzm2g1920zl (Oops!)

I'm not saying MtGox et al didn't play their part, just that we tend to overemphasise the role of news. MtGox, for example, didn't come as the big surprise many people think it did - people had been expecting MtGox to screw up for some time, and that would have been reflected in the price long before February 2014.


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Xterry
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April 06, 2014, 05:25:59 PM
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There are several reasons. Mt.Gox fall is strongly influenced that
herebittybittybitty
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April 06, 2014, 05:31:05 PM
 #8

Ridiculous speculative frenzy
BitcoinBobbeh
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April 06, 2014, 06:25:03 PM
 #9

So is this a good time to buy some bitcoins?

I bought some the other day on the way down to 450.

Long-term, most people are still bullish. I'm expecting some modest gains in time for summer myself.

By the end of next month at the latest we will have permanently left behind 3 digits. You can quote me on this.
roslinpl
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April 06, 2014, 06:36:28 PM
 #10

Why did the value of 1 BTC fall from ~1100 USD in December to ~450 now? I can understand volatility for a couple 100 dollars even, but the value has almost halved. Is this due to the Mt. Gox hacking?  

Those are more speculations IMO, but I believe reasons are clear:
1. Mt.Gox
2. Other exchanges suffers attacks
3. Charlie S.
4. Then it was not bad Smiley until
5. ITS
6. China (maybe yes/maybe no)

but all of those means nothing Wink Bitcoin is not 1 year old project and it is very strong even with all of those issues there are plenty of good news too.



Satoshi went public with Bitcoin in 2009... I've been registered on bitcointalk since 2011. Not sure where you got the idea it was not yet 1 year old...

Back to the OP's question, this is Bitstamp's price chart for "all data" from Bitcoincharts - you can see than in April 2013 price went from over USD200 to under USD100 - and going further back similar falls occur with surprising regularity.

Edit: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#tgSza1gWMAzm1g20za2gWMAzm2g1920zl (Oops!)

I'm not saying MtGox et al didn't play their part, just that we tend to overemphasise the role of news. MtGox, for example, didn't come as the big surprise many people think it did - people had been expecting MtGox to screw up for some time, and that would have been reflected in the price long before February 2014.



You misunderstood :-) I told that indeed bitcoin is much older than 1 year and this is why problems from science last few months means nothing as bitcoin is much older and stronger in same time ...
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April 06, 2014, 06:55:24 PM
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Chinese melodrama, Gox, IRS, hackers... shaken trust in cryptos in general. Bit it will recover. Slowly.
GTO911
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April 06, 2014, 07:03:07 PM
 #12

Crypto looks like a playground, thats why. People arent interested in innovation now, only money making
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April 06, 2014, 08:12:58 PM
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Is it possible to short bitcoin?

LMGTFY
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April 06, 2014, 08:16:54 PM
 #14

Is it possible to short bitcoin?


You can short BTC at Bitfinex: https://www.bitfinex.com/pages/features. Other exchanges, maybe!

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blatchcorn
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April 06, 2014, 08:26:30 PM
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Crypto looks like a playground, thats why. People arent interested in innovation now, only money making

The two go hand-in-hand
GigaCoin
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April 06, 2014, 08:59:36 PM
 #16

Why did the value of 1 BTC fall from ~1100 USD in December to ~450 now? I can understand volatility for a couple 100 dollars even, but the value has almost halved. Is this due to the Mt. Gox hacking? 

Bitcoin being young and all on a journey of sell discovery is going through bubble phases due to increased global interest and investment and will continue to behave this way as long as interest and investment continues to flow it's way

However when it reaches a certain threshold, where adoption has reached a far and wide audience growth will slow and bubbles will be less frequest or non existant. We're still pretty early, pretty risky too since failure is also a high probability.

tskweres
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April 07, 2014, 07:36:13 AM
 #17

Why did the value of 1 BTC fall from ~1100 USD in December to ~450 now? I can understand volatility for a couple 100 dollars even, but the value has almost halved. Is this due to the Mt. Gox hacking? 

Those are more speculations IMO, but I believe reasons are clear:
1. Mt.Gox
2. Other exchanges suffers attacks
3. Charlie S.
4. Then it was not bad Smiley until
5. ITS
6. China (maybe yes/maybe no)

but all of those means nothing Wink Bitcoin is not 1 year old project and it is very strong even with all of those issues there are plenty of good news too.



Bitcoin is still fragile in terms of the ecosystem, so when a government takes a stance, or something happens to a prominent company in the space, it can easily affect the price. Large markets work the same way.

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April 07, 2014, 09:07:30 AM
 #18

Why did the value of 1 BTC fall from ~1100 USD in December to ~450 now? I can understand volatility for a couple 100 dollars even, but the value has almost halved. Is this due to the Mt. Gox hacking?  

Those are more speculations IMO, but I believe reasons are clear:
1. Mt.Gox
2. Other exchanges suffers attacks
3. Charlie S.
4. Then it was not bad Smiley until
5. ITS
6. China (maybe yes/maybe no)

but all of those means nothing Wink Bitcoin is not 1 year old project and it is very strong even with all of those issues there are plenty of good news too.



Bitcoin is still fragile in terms of the ecosystem, so when a government takes a stance, or something happens to a prominent company in the space, it can easily affect the price. Large markets work the same way.

Thats the reason I like to study crowd behavior / crowd psychology ... from Gustave Le Bon to Jacob Moreno ... btw if you interrested on that subject I strongly recomend a book called Understanding Social Networks, Charles Kadushin isbn 978-0-19-537946-7

http://www.introversion.co.uk/
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April 07, 2014, 10:53:06 AM
 #19

 I think that' both aspects caused this - the situation with MtGox and the high speed at which the price rose to 1100 USD! It was al in one time
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April 07, 2014, 10:59:03 AM
 #20

it's bad time mate, we just need to wait and keep our btc.

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