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Today at 05:58:26 AM |
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Frankly said i think west's monopoly over the global system are increasingly difficult to maintain today. Multipolarism makes energy sources, manufacture industry, capital, trade route, demographics and supply chain spread across multiple centers of power.
If you read UK & Europe future based on history then i suggest you to read the future of global world from end of times perspective which explain that The world's center gravity will shift back to the East. Middle east not only conflict zone but a potential epicenter of global upheaval. I see the resurgence of the Islamic world come from middle east position which situated at the crossroads of several world systems such as energy, trade, religion, demographics, military and maritime routes). The Middle East has never truly been a local region. It possesses concentrations of energy, trade routes, population, capital, and conflict points that make it one of the world's strategic hubs, so many think geopolitically that whoever is able to safeguard or disrupt those these region possesses the ability to influence the global economy wider and bigger beyond the scale of their own economy.
Geographically, we see the world's energy sources is located near the Moslem region plus adding Moslem African nations which have abundant energy and mineral resources creates structural leverage, although this does not automatically imply political dominance for islamic world, oil that previously a commodity now become strategic security. Now we see guld country not only sell oil but they stated We buy world asset as strategic investment which if these developed with high advance technology and industry will fundamentally altering the bargaining position of the Gulf states.
Two major problems still facing by moslem countries are education levels and technology adoption that remain at a moderate level. Why demography matter, when first world country face aging population and low fertility, moslem region has a large, younger population, but it only become geopolitical power if its population growth along with educational, technology & capital. The seconf problem are Moslem nations are not yet united. But with multipolarism trend moslem countries can form increasingly independent networks of interests. No need to form a single entity, just increasing high economic and strategic interoperability suffices.
In multipolarism world NATO will still strong military, EU will reamin strong on regulation and economy and US will still have big financial capacity, technology, military and a vast alliance network but it doesn't mean they monopolized the world like the history and here we see realistic multipolarism. Yes colonialisms tech us that military force has been used to control resources but it doesn't proves that NATO will repeat that pattern on a larger scale. Todays world has different way of calculation everything has change from concept of sovereignity, modern international legal system, the costs of war, the risk of escalation, and to what we call economic interdependence. From US Israel attack on Iran we cam learn that possessing the military capability to seize resources is not the same as having the economic capacity to derive a net profit from that seizure. Maybe WW II give amazing treasure to US but after the term sovereign state reached the peak of its global popularity following World War II and the establishment of the United Nations in 1945, at least choose a hardway attacking other sovereign state has a consequence.
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