The shallowest bear market ever?

[KingsDen]

image by bitcoin magazine

Wait!
Have we just had the shallowest bear market ever in the history of bitcoin?
Or are we expecting a huge correction, owing that halving is about 568 days away.

If the bear market is simply over, that means this is the shallowest bear market ever, and  I now understand why it was said that institutional adoption will result to less volatility.

What's your take; is the bear market over?

[Hatchy]

If the bear market is simply over, that means this is the shallowest bear market ever, and  I now understand why it was said that institutional adoption will result to less volatility.

What's your take; is the bear market over?

The market is already giving us a lot of reasons to believe that the bear season might be over. And yes, this could have been a relatively short bear market, or maybe it was just a correction and the real bear market is still ahead of us. Who knows?Honestly, this was somewhat expected. Institutional adoption, which wasn't really a major part of Bitcoin's previous cycles, might be playing a big role in its volatility and overall market behaviour. Bitcoin is evolving, and it isn't the same asset we had several years ago. Institutional involvement and regulated investment products have become much more important to the market.

The next halving is still expected around 2028, so there is still plenty of time before then.  I'm personally very confident that we could see a new ATH before the next halving, although of course nobody can know for certain.So yeah, the bear market might have just ended, but I think we'll need more confirmation before we can say that with confidence.

[sergiorus]

Maybe the shallowest bear market ever. Maybe the mid supercycle correction. Maybe the whole "cycle" thing is obsolete now. Who knows, right?

The price contraction was severe enough anyway and we're definitely not going lower. Maybe not fully out of the woods yet but there's no significant downside risk anymore, imho.

[Sim_card]

I don't know what to say with the recent pump on bitcoin price to $86k. This is a signal that the bear market might be over but let's wait till October ending before we can come to conclusions that the bear market is over. Of course, institutional adoption is playing a major role in the bear market because there is a particular price that if bitcoin dip to, investors will rush to buy more which will pump the price back. I believe that's why we have seen the lowest price of bitcoin in this bear market as $57k+ so far.

[Wiwo]

BTC max drawdowns of $58k - 61k price in june 2026 which was the deepest Bitcoin drawdown price representing 51-56% from the all time high of October 2025 of bitcoin price $126,000, now the current bitcoin price of between $75k - $85,000 BTC is somewhere around 31% which indicates alot of positive market recovery.

Next cycle is some time away, but if bitcoin record a new all time high, not retracing backwards below I current market bear low price, that definitely record this current market cycle as the most shallow bear cycle in bitcoin history since 2013 till date.

[aoluain]

I'm very much undecided given the market movements over the last 2 or 3 weeks.

I was of the thinking that the market would slump a bit more to at the very least early $60k's before
a big break out into a proper Bull season.

I have bee told before and recently that its was widely* expected that this would happen end of September
or early October.

I guess we are al living through challenging times which are also challenging for the financial markets too
and the Bitcoin one has never experienced anything like this really so its kind of new territory in a way.

[Oshosondy]

What's your take; is the bear market over?

There have been similar discussion recently, so let me quote what I posted about it today.

Nobody know although some said bull market has returned. Even looking like mild altseason as bitcoin dominance fall below 60% and now it is slightly above 58%.

Many altcoins has risen in price so much.

I remember a time bitcoin increased back to $13950 after falling from $19600 in 2017/2018 to $3158, but it was later it fall to $3850 after some months. What is happening now look like what was happening at the time.

I do not not think bull run has started

But it is good to know that bitcoin is not going below $60000 anymore.

I may be very wrong. The technical analysis shows that bitcoin will start falling after $86000. If there is no retracement, bitcoin may make it up to almost $100000.

[Zoomic]

Considering what we've witnessed in the past cycles, I think it's still too early to say that this year's drawdown is the end of the bear market.

In the previous cycles, Bitcoin had surprised people who thought they've found the bottom, it's still very possible that we aren't there yet.

Maybe we should exercise more patience before we can say if it's the shallowest bear market ever or not.

[pooya87]

For a more accurate analysis we have to remember that in the "cycles" we have to compare the whole cycle not just one part of it. That means the bull run as well. So for example when that chart compares 2018 bear market with the latest one, it should have also compared the bull run and the bubble that lead to that bear market!

As a reminder in 2017 alone, price went from ~$700 to ~$20000 which was a 2757% rise.
Even if we expand the duration to 2 years (instead of one) and include 2024, the lowest price we had in the past 2 years was $40k and if we want to have similar size rise as 2017 the end price should have been $1.1 million.

So NO we did not have the "shallowest bear market ever". It's been some time that we have been seeing smaller cycles which is smaller ATH followed by a smaller and shorter correction. And all of that is because of all the economic hardship of the past 6 years with recessions (COVID, NATO-Russian war, US-China war).

After we start analyzing the market by looking at the bigger picture, we should easily find answers to questions such as the ones OP asked:
are we expecting a huge correction? No because we never had a huge bubble.
is the bear market over? Yes. There is no reason to be in a bear market any longer. It can only resume if the global economy sinks into worse recession. For the time being the world is in inflation mode where price of everything goes up since the US regime has disrupted global supply chain and the global energy markets.

[laspol65]

In my opinion, the bear market is not over yet, because there is still a long way to go before the next halving season. So, no matter how high the Bitcoin price is at this stage, it is very difficult to expect the Bitcoin price to skyrocket, so in this situation, we will definitely continue to buy Bitcoin.
We will not let our Bitcoin holdings be destroyed because if we continue to buy Bitcoin, we will definitely be able to take advantage of the next bull season's massive benefits. So, we will continue to hold Bitcoin with confidence, the current situation will make you more instructive.

[Gost ms]

Looking at the current market situation, it seems to me that the decline is over for this year at least and we can expect to see the Bitcoin market reach $100,000 before the end of this year. Because the current volatility of the Bitcoin market is very high, in the midst of this volatility, we are seeing the price of Bitcoin going up instead of down. For example, if we see the price of Bitcoin at $85,000, now the price of Bitcoin is falling from here to $83,000 or $84,000, but at some point in between, we are seeing the price of Bitcoin again surpassing $85,000. We have probably reached a very strong support level, from here we can see the market going up.

[Zaguru12]

After we start analyzing the market by looking at the bigger picture, we should easily find answers to questions such as the ones OP asked:

To buttress your point further I think we can look at even less complicated analysis like the starting price of bitcoin from even the day of halving to the highest peak of each cycle and then look also at the declining of those prices to see the reduction of the volatility,

First cycle
Bitcoin price at halving was $12 and highest price in that bull run was $1,100. This was a 9,500% increase
The bearish market had the price go down to $170, that’s a whole 85% fall

Second cycle
Start price at halving was $650 and peak at $19,000 that was a 2,900% rise
Bearish market had the price fell from this peak to around $3,000 and the fall was 84%

Third cycle
Start price was $8,500 and peak at $69,000 that’s a 750% rise
Bearish trend had the price drop to $15,500 which was a 77% drop

Fourth cycle (Now)
Starting price at halving was $64,000 and peak was $126,000 that’s a 100% rise Bearish trend
Bearish trend currently has lowest price at $58,500 and it’s a 53% fall.

Looking at this percentages we can say it’s actually a trajectory and isn’t something with such a huge surprise

[Mrbluntzy]

It is quite uncertain whether the bear market is over or not but after the all time high of last year, price has been on a massive dump, therefore this recent pump is a correction in my opinion. Price does not just continue in one direction forever, after a continuous down trend since last year till June this year, it decided to change direction to the upside following the economic events that has been unfolding. Price could see a new bottom starting from this mber months, I see a lot of analysis that is predicting that price will fall and I think it will but just that the bottom price is uncertain.

[Ambatman]

If the bear market is simply over, that means this is the shallowest bear market ever, and  I now understand why it was said that institutional adoption will result to less volatility.

Could be the shallowest yet
The thing is volatility has been reducing since the start as the cycle goes by
Not necessarily just because of institutional investors.
Though I don't know if we passed the bear market
But the likelihood of going below $60K is way lower
Than us crossing $100K
Fingers crossed all goes well.

[Livingleged]

 
~snip~
Looking at this percentages we can say it’s actually a trajectory and isn’t something with such a huge surprise

The comparisons you did shows an important change across the bitcoin cycle. I noticed The percentage gain from the halving price to the cycle peak has become much smaller over time, from thousands of percent in the earlier cycle to around 100% in the current cycle.

The drawdowns have also become smaller, so far around 85%, 84%, and 77%, in the previous cycles, compared with about 54% using the $126k peak and $58k low mentioned here. The past doesn’t guarantee that the current cycle will follow the same pattern, but the historical numbers clearly shows that bitcoins big price swing have become smaller overtime.

[Pandorak]

The shallowest bear market? It’s possible.

Every day, i see so many people speculating about Bitcoin price. Many still don’t believe that the recent significant price increase means the bull run has resumed, they think there’s still a chance for the price to drop further to $45k or even as low as $35k. I don’t know if this is purely based on their analysis or because they missed the opportunity to buy at a low price due to hesitation while Bitcoin was trading sideways in the $60k–$65k range .

One thing is certain, we all certainly hope the bear market is over.

[alastantiger]

If the bear market is simply over, that means this is the shallowest bear market ever, and  I now understand why it was said that institutional adoption will result to less volatility.
What's your take; is the bear market over?

I think we have to wait untill it is confirmed from the market as we give it time and if the directions of the market keeps going up then we can say the bear market is over because if the market suddenly gets another massive correction and the price falls furthermore down than we previously got to then it means the bear market was not over hence what we can do now is to wait as we still have a long wait before Bitcoin halving comes and that is usually the time the market use to get good buying forces that push for the market to starts pumping. Just like everybody else. I wish the bear market to be over because nobody likes to see their Bitcoin falling in their wallet.

[boyptc]

What's your take; is the bear market over?

Wait a little bit longer and we can say that it's actually over.

We need to have that confirmation yet that it's over when it sits to $80k for a couple of months before this year ends.

That's the bear market should be that it must be more than 50% from the ATH that it did and it we saw that. But, it still stay there longer.

I am seeing the prediction of those people happening said that the next bear markets won't be too hurtful anymore.

[KingsDen]

After we start analyzing the market by looking at the bigger picture, we should easily find answers to questions such as the ones OP asked:
are we expecting a huge correction? No because we never had a huge bubble.

Wow!
This digested so well... The law of equal and opposite reaction is happening. I remember that many people were projecting $170k - $250k for the just concluded circle but it didn't happen. The market chose to reverse from $126k even after CZ and co marketed the idea that we were in a super cycle that wouldn't obey the traditional 4 year cycle.

For the fact that we didn't have a big bubble, a short bear shouldn't be a surprise. I agree with you wholly on this. Meanwhile, it seems that the market is somewhat deviating from what we used to know and follow.

I don't want to exempt the role of the institutions in this. When ETF buy and their records are public. Taylor's strategy buys and hype, those have impacts in the behaviour of people and their mindset towards bitcoin.

Finally, you noted that the economy isn't bleeding, so we are expecting a smooth run from here unless Trump starts another war and sanction bazar.

[Rengga Jati]

Have we just had the shallowest bear market ever in the history of bitcoin?

The market scheme is truly changing. We're facing quite a challenging period. Based on previous data, the bear market is completely different from what's happened recently. Let's see what happens until the end of this year. To see whether the bear market truly ends early or not.

The next halving is still expected around 2028, so there is still plenty of time before then.  I'm personally very confident that we could see a new ATH before the next halving, although of course nobody can know for certain.So yeah, the bear market might have just ended, but I think we'll need more confirmation before we can say that with confidence.

Yes. According to the schedule, it should be in April 2028.

Bitcoin Halving Countdown
Bitcoin usually starts rising beforehand, and the real, optimal surge typically happens a few months later. But if the pattern changes, we can't be certain about how the next bull market will start.