The shallowest bear market ever?

[yudi09]

-snip-

What's your take; is the bear market over?

It is difficult to make a definitive call on whether the trend has ended, as the outcome depends on the reference point used—specifically, whether the $86,000 level is viewed as the key resistance barrier.
Given current market conditions, I would say "no" (it hasn't ended yet); the price action—holding above $80,000 but below $86,000—is not yet decisive enough to rule out further changes, leaving open the possibility of a decline in October.

[Rockson1]

I don't know what to say with the recent pump on bitcoin price to $86k. This is a signal that the bear market might be over but let's wait till October ending before we can come to conclusions that the bear market is over. Of course, institutional adoption is playing a major role in the bear market because there is a particular price that if bitcoin dip to, investors will rush to buy more which will pump the price back. I believe that's why we have seen the lowest price of bitcoin in this bear market as $57k+ so far.

We don't know if the bear market will be ending soon or not , and the reason for the pump to the aforementioned amount is still unknown, although it might have something to do with what you said about major investors buying more when the price drop to some certain price fit the market to surge again, however, all of that, are part of speculation.

What I can say is that, Bitcoin is a futuristic asset, and as Bitcoin investors, we should keep up with our Bitcoin investment progressively, we should not relent, people have been saying different things about when the bear market will end, but I dong think it is necessary to pay attention to that, as I know that investing more consistently will make me a fulfilled investor in the future, I put my energy on that than speculating.

[bhadz]

It is difficult to make a definitive call on whether the trend has ended, as the outcome depends on the reference point used—specifically, whether the $86,000 level is viewed as the key resistance barrier.

And if there's a constant rise for Bitcoin's price, we can't say that the bear has ended. Because the possibility of it having a heavy or huge dip is still there and that cannot change the fact that bear or not, it can happen.

Given current market conditions, I would say "no" (it hasn't ended yet); the price action—holding above $80,000 but below $86,000—is not yet decisive enough to rule out further changes, leaving open the possibility of a decline in October.

It's still holding above $80k but with the news about hack of bitget, it can be a bit lower but looks amazing to see bitcoin holding that. People might say that it's not as big to move the market but it's noticeable to see that from $86k it has been down to $83k.

[danherbias07]

You have a point, but the answer also lies in your summary. There are still 565 days (using the latest data) before the next halving, so this is not over yet. Although I really like the point where you said it's because institutional investors came in, and Bitcoin may have a shallow bear market.
Still, there's so much that could happen, and we saw unexpected things when we talked about Bitcoin, so I won't sit and relax just yet. Don't get it wrong, I do hope that the bottom is $60k, but we should always be open to shocking possibilities. It's Bitcoin.

[fullfitlarry]

You have a point, but the answer also lies in your summary. There are still 565 days (using the latest data) before the next halving, so this is not over yet. Although I really like the point where you said it's because institutional investors came in, and Bitcoin may have a shallow bear market.
Still, there's so much that could happen, and we saw unexpected things when we talked about Bitcoin, so I won't sit and relax just yet. Don't get it wrong, I do hope that the bottom is $60k, but we should always be open to shocking possibilities. It's Bitcoin.

Halving could be a catalyst, but during the last bull run, we have a new all time high pre-halving. That's why there are still who thought that the bear market is over. But it's really hard to tell at this point.

I saw some analyst about next month, that it will be a big test for us to see whether we've seen the lowest low or we will see just one leg down before the eventual bull run. So let's see how it goes. And this what makes Bitcoin exciting is that we really don't know what's going to happen in the future.

[yudi09]

Given current market conditions, I would say "no" (it hasn't ended yet); the price action—holding above $80,000 but below $86,000—is not yet decisive enough to rule out further changes, leaving open the possibility of a decline in October.

It's still holding above $80k but with the news about hack of bitget, it can be a bit lower but looks amazing to see bitcoin holding that. People might say that it's not as big to move the market but it's noticeable to see that from $86k it has been down to $83k.

If the price remains above $80,000 and holds steady for some time, the (bearish) phase might not be over yet, as there could still be a future drop to a market bottom.

I am not sure what to call those interested in Bitcoin market speculation, but given the current market climate, I prefer a scenario that reflects continued optimism regarding a rise in Bitcoin's price.
This scenario suggests that the years 2027–2028 will bring a pleasant surprise regarding Bitcoin's price—rewarding those who have held firm despite the temptation to sell, which stemmed from fears that the current rally was merely a trap preceding a deep decline.

[Odohu]

Judging by the chart you posted, it is indeed the shallowest bear market in history and that can be attributed to a lot of factors. First, Bitcoin have grown bigger in terms of popularity and adoption, so it is difficult for few events to lead the market to a massive dump in price. The other factor is that there are more institutional involvement now than before meaning that a lot of money is needed to drive the market. Going forward, it will be better for Bitcoin going forward.

[Jegileman]

If the bear market is simply over, that means this is the shallowest bear market ever, and  I now understand why it was said that institutional adoption will result to less volatility.

What's your take; is the bear market over?

Seriously this bear market is a bit complicated that one cannot even be so sure of the direction the market is headed or what state of the market are we now. Some weeks, the market resembles to be consolidating while sometimes they still look very solid trending on one direction. Trying to know which direction one can ascertain that the market is currently trending on then again brought about a change in direction/trend. I won’t say the bear market is over but the market is showing so. It has to show a more convincing sign that it is over before many investors can not believe fully that we are now in a bull market counting down to the next halving event again.

[Dave1]

Judging by the chart you posted, it is indeed the shallowest bear market in history and that can be attributed to a lot of factors. First, Bitcoin have grown bigger in terms of popularity and adoption, so it is difficult for few events to lead the market to a massive dump in price. The other factor is that there are more institutional involvement now than before meaning that a lot of money is needed to drive the market. Going forward, it will be better for Bitcoin going forward.

There are a lot of players right now, not like before let's say 5 years ago. And that's why the market is very hard to manipulate, and even if there are news that could really affect the market in a bad way, it didn't.

So that could be a good indication that with the vast growth of Bitcoin, it's really very hard for it go just dump in one go and then there will be a huge price correction as compare to it's previous cycle. We might be in a new super-cycle as bear market is going to be shallower in the next recurrence.

[PERtua]

I don't know what to say with the recent pump on bitcoin price to $86k. This is a signal that the bear market might be over but let's wait till October ending before we can come to conclusions that the bear market is over. Of course, institutional adoption is playing a major role in the bear market because there is a particular price that if bitcoin dip to, investors will rush to buy more which will pump the price back. I believe that's why we have seen the lowest price of bitcoin in this bear market as $57k+ so far.

We don't know if the bear market will be ending soon or not , and the reason for the pump to the aforementioned amount is still unknown, although it might have something to do with what you said about major investors buying more when the price drop to some certain price fit the market to surge again, however, all of that, are part of speculation.

What I can say is that, Bitcoin is a futuristic asset, and as Bitcoin investors, we should keep up with our Bitcoin investment progressively, we should not relent, people have been saying different things about when the bear market will end, but I dong think it is necessary to pay attention to that, as I know that investing more consistently will make me a fulfilled investor in the future, I put my energy on that than speculating.

I agree, that is more of a speculation than an analysis to try to find the end of a bear market. One thing to distinguish is that a firm price recovery from a proven market structure change. This is a big jump from $57k to $86k, but that doesn't mean the prior downtrend is over. I'd prefer to see what it would look like once it recovers: Bitcoin maintaining higher lows and eventually making a comeback to the previous ATH without another major recovery crash. That would give a better indication than an individual pump or prediction for October.

[STT]

As much as any trend can be called, its not nearly bearish now.   I would not have called Bitcoin a bear market since spring even, the decline was quite a simple clean cut lower in a straight line of lower highs and corresponding lower lows.
  
  Since the spring BTC price action we did not simply observe a bounce higher or do anything exactly easily or simply but you can say in time the bottom pricing was tested and failed to move lower.   I label that attempt at closing a new low as failure to the downside, inversely that did make us bullish.
   The post low price action was an immediate gain, a brief trend it failed, it was quite sharp up and didn't last but eventually we have resolved upwards and the biggest clue has been the moving averages imo.

  The 200 day and 50 week naturally take time and things like that don't change easy it takes a process but that is far more reliable then trying to call it on the shorter term.
   50 Week still has an ongoing descent hence we got a flag down still, ie. not everything is ready for gains.  Easily I would say we are out of bear country.

[jcojci]

==

Do you really think that the bitcoin price will really go below the last lowest for this cycle which is $58k?
I know that nothing is impossible in this market, but I feel that the bad news that will drag the price that low is not at sight.

Beside the economy is not too bad, I mean no recession, heated war or global tomoil that will trigger such a disastrous price drop. I am not saying that it's totally impossible, but it's likely not going to happen.

I hope not but nothing is impossible as you say. Indeed, the sign is not show and we really hope that is not happens. Globally, no heavy bad news coming but once the bad news, that can shaking the market and make the price changing.

That is I suggest to prepare for anything could happens. We don't know and can't predict the future, not even what will happens in the next hours. Only preparation that we can do to avoid the bad and ready with any situation.

[Swordsoffreedom]

Judging by the chart you posted, it is indeed the shallowest bear market in history and that can be attributed to a lot of factors. First, Bitcoin have grown bigger in terms of popularity and adoption, so it is difficult for few events to lead the market to a massive dump in price. The other factor is that there are more institutional involvement now than before meaning that a lot of money is needed to drive the market. Going forward, it will be better for Bitcoin going forward.

There are a lot of players right now, not like before let's say 5 years ago. And that's why the market is very hard to manipulate, and even if there are news that could really affect the market in a bad way, it didn't.

So that could be a good indication that with the vast growth of Bitcoin, it's really very hard for it go just dump in one go and then there will be a huge price correction as compare to it's previous cycle. We might be in a new super-cycle as bear market is going to be shallower in the next recurrence.

If Bitcoin has really bottomed and this is indeed the shallowest bear market in history, that's a sign Bitcoin is maturing. It's getting harder to manipulate, sell-offs should be less severe, and volatility should gradually come down too.

But that also means Bitcoin may not have the same kind of big upside we saw in previous cycles.

A more mature Bitcoin is certainly a good thing. But if it also translates into lower returns in the future, I really do not know whether I should smile or cry, lol.

[tiCeR]

...

If Bitcoin has really bottomed and this is indeed the shallowest bear market in history, that's a sign Bitcoin is maturing. It's getting harder to manipulate, sell-offs should be less severe, and volatility should gradually come down too.

I don't think we will see below $60k prices again. Never say never, I know, but hard to imagine at this point as it went through to much shit. All those erratic moves by Trump, wars in many places, economic downturns, tariffs, pandemic, outright bans that could not be enforced and so on. It has several upsides for it going, like institutional adoption that has clearly increased. The negative narratives have become less and less, it is not so much the talk about the criminal internet money anymore.

But that also means Bitcoin may not have the same kind of big upside we saw in previous cycles.

This will absolutely be the case. The upside is not going to be the same ever again because it just can't. You have now been around since 2013, which means you know quite a bit about how bitcoin performed in the past. It becomes a questions of mathematics. There is so much global wealth in the world, x amount of it is represented by gold, even if bitcoin takes away market shares from gold, there is a limit from here as to how many times it can up.

In 2013 we still had below $100 times and since then it went up more than 1,000x. This is not possible anymore because it makes no sense mathematically considering global wealth distribution.

A more mature Bitcoin is certainly a good thing. But if it also translates into lower returns in the future, I really do not know whether I should smile or cry, lol.

That's the downside, as chaotic as the old times were, it was exciting for sure!

[batang_bitcoin]

Judging by the chart you posted, it is indeed the shallowest bear market in history and that can be attributed to a lot of factors. First, Bitcoin have grown bigger in terms of popularity and adoption, so it is difficult for few events to lead the market to a massive dump in price. The other factor is that there are more institutional involvement now than before meaning that a lot of money is needed to drive the market. Going forward, it will be better for Bitcoin going forward.

The institutional adoption is true and I think that they contribute significantly while the price doesn't move that much for this bear market. It is opposite to what the most of us have expected that it's going to be a very huge bear market every time it comes. But that doesn't look we're going to see it because the move of this bear market is noticeable that everyone starts to question if it's a real bear market or we're moving in a transition and we're entering the bull run.

[Crypto Library]

image by bitcoin magazine
Wait!
Have we just had the shallowest bear market ever in the history of bitcoin?
Or are we expecting a huge correction, owing that halving is about 568 days away.
If the bear market is simply over, that means this is the shallowest bear market ever, and  I now understand why it was said that institutional adoption will result to less volatility.
What's your take; is the bear market over?

I bought it for uncertain. Even I do believe that bitcoin is not ended it's bear season even I was thinking like that the current push on the market is just for the bull trap. However, the reason for selecting uncertain here is that during the previous bull season, we saw some changes in the pattern in the entire crypto market, including Bitcoin, such as creating an all-time high price before the halving period and crossing the previous 69k.

And also, if we compare it with previous bear markets, we will see a difference here, like the previous bear bottom prices mostly went down from -77% to -87% and this time it only went down by -53% to around 59k. I think it is more likely to go down than this, but the market can never be guaranteed.

[bhadz]

It's still holding above $80k but with the news about hack of bitget, it can be a bit lower but looks amazing to see bitcoin holding that. People might say that it's not as big to move the market but it's noticeable to see that from $86k it has been down to $83k.

If the price remains above $80,000 and holds steady for some time, the (bearish) phase might not be over yet, as there could still be a future drop to a market bottom.

The possibility of the market drops a lot in a quick glance can always happen. But seeing it above $80k seems to be a safe haven for all holders who have bought at a nice price for the past months and even with the bad news that we've seen lately.

I am not sure what to call those interested in Bitcoin market speculation, but given the current market climate, I prefer a scenario that reflects continued optimism regarding a rise in Bitcoin's price.
This scenario suggests that the years 2027–2028 will bring a pleasant surprise regarding Bitcoin's price—rewarding those who have held firm despite the temptation to sell, which stemmed from fears that the current rally was merely a trap preceding a deep decline.

Well, those are the periods that we'll have an optimistic approach because if we'll base that through the cycle then 2028 is the year that halving will happen. And we know what's the pattern each time the halving happens.

[Silikiem]

If the bear market is simply over, that means this is the shallowest bear market ever, and  I now understand why it was said that institutional adoption will result to less volatility.

What's your take; is the bear market over?

Seriously this bear market is a bit complicated that one cannot even be so sure of the direction the market is headed or what state of the market are we now. Some weeks, the market resembles to be consolidating while sometimes they still look very solid trending on one direction. Trying to know which direction one can ascertain that the market is currently trending on then again brought about a change in direction/trend. I won’t say the bear market is over but the market is showing so. It has to show a more convincing sign that it is over before many investors can not believe fully that we are now in a bull market counting down to the next halving event again.

The bitcoin market will continue to be complicated to understand because it’s highly volatile and that’s what makes it very unpredictable. In a bid to avail oneself of further complications investors are advised not to pay much attention to the market but should focus on taking advantage of every market opportunity to buy bitcoin. Even if the bear market is over now most investors still don’t have enough liquidity in their portfolio to enable them be in a good position when the market finally becomes bullish again. For now, the market is still gaining momentum and we can’t say for sure that the bear market is finally over or not but if it continues to get support from here then we might possibly be headed to a bullish market.

[Awaklara]

The institutional adoption is true and I think that they contribute significantly while the price doesn't move that much for this bear market. It is opposite to what the most of us have expected that it's going to be a very huge bear market every time it comes. But that doesn't look we're going to see it because the move of this bear market is noticeable that everyone starts to question if it's a real bear market or we're moving in a transition and we're entering the bull run.

Institutional adoption does affect market volatility. It may also influence cycles in previous periods. Since price declines can also be reduced, the same can happen to the intensity or strength of pumps in the next bull run. We may have already passed the bear market, but don't rush too much to set the target for the next new ATH. The price increase in the next bull run may not be very large and could proceed quite slowly.

[Olatundespo]

image by bitcoin magazine

Wait!
Have we just had the shallowest bear market ever in the history of bitcoin?
Or are we expecting a huge correction, owing that halving is about 568 days away.

If the bear market is simply over, that means this is the shallowest bear market ever, and  I now understand why it was said that institutional adoption will result to less volatility.

What's your take; is the bear market over?

Nope, today the price of Bitcoin is falling and it is close to $82k. After the bull run started, I expected it to touch $100k but it started falling again after about $87k. On September 21, the highest price of Bitcoin was $87,363.76. After that, the market remained somewhat stable and today there is a significant decline.

There are still many days left until the next halving, during this period, the price of Bitcoin is likely to reach ATH many times. Even if the market starts heading towards another decline it will not fall much.

The current market is certainly a low volatility market but there is a possibility of another bull run in the price of Bitcoin next month. The trend of Bitcoin adoption is increasing due to increasing inflation in different countries of the world.