The shallowest bear market ever?

[Smack That Ace]

I will only say one thing.
I will not change my sentiment until the end of October.

This year's bear market might be the shallowest bear market that we've ever seen. This year's low of around $57,000 could be the low of this year's bear market. On the other hand, we might still see a drop in the price of Bitcoin in the following weeks, or we might not anymore. The best thing that we can do is to predict, and up until the end of October, my look at the market is still bearish... or at least I still expect a leg towards the downside before we could see a gradual increase on the price.

Is the bear market over? It might be. It might be not. Some think it is already hence, the increase in price of Bitcoin. Some think we could still see one more downward pressure. The best thing that we can do is to predict, and be ready for what could happen in the future.

We are almost one week into the Uptober and the signs it is showing is not a sign of the bear. There are a lot of positives in this Uptober and the recent good news from SEC might serve as a catalyst to kickstart the bull run.

Just that we are limited by history and mindset, the signs I am seeing in the market now are all bull run signs. In a typical bear market, this should be the heart of it, where we will be moving from low to lower.

Could it be that the CZ's super cycle I have always criticized wants to happen?

Did I miss something? What good news from the SEC are you even talking about that's supposed to kickstart the bull run?

You mean this news ? I don't think it's that big or bullish.

Fair's fair, I don't see any sign we're about to enter a bull market, let alone the supercycle we've been waiting for.

War is still going on, rates are high, oil is expensive, DXY is up, long-term US bond yields are still very high...Bottom line, the macro picture's a mess of uncertainty. It's hard to be bullish and believe we're heading into a bull market in the current environment.

[EarnOnVictor]

Have we just had the shallowest bear market ever in the history of bitcoin?
Or are we expecting a huge correction, owing that halving is about 568 days away.
What's your take; is the bear market over?

These are important questions, and the answers are not far-fetched. I've said it many times on the forum that anywhere institutional investors are, you should prepare for some high level of dynamism, which is what Bitcoin is experiencing now. Gone are the days that Bitcoin, due to its bearish phase in its 4-cycle, would sell for a certain period of time, so that history would repeat itself and the tradition would be kept. That's now gone! If you check the last cycle, the bullish phase kickstarted earlier, and as it is now, it's showing the same thing, with even an earlier start. We should get used to it, as it's an evidence that whales are no more in control, but rich institutional liquidity dominance.

[CryptoBuds]

I believe that this isn't the start of the new bull run season, but assuming that we are nearing the end of the bear market season, this is the start of the "accumulation phase" where many investors are starting to accumulate Bitcoin hence, the increase in the price of it.

We usually talk about bull markets and bear markets. One leaves, the other comes then the cycle goes the other way again.

But in reality, there is usually a transition period in between, what we call the accumulation phase. Price can move sideway or swing around in a pretty wide range during this time. Markets rarely flip straight from a downtrend into a full blown bull run overnight.
So yeah, I agree with you. Even if bear market is over, that doesn't mean we're in a bull market yet.

Looks like people are just getting WAY too impatient, and that's not really a good mindset for investing,  .

[Renampun]

We are almost one week into the Uptober and the signs it is showing is not a sign of the bear. There are a lot of positives in this Uptober and the recent good news from SEC might serve as a catalyst to kickstart the bull run.

Maybe we'll see some positive news in the near future, whether it's from the SEC or from others.. but I don't think news like that can start a bull run.. we haven't even seen a major correction.. so this probably won't kick off anything even though the market looks so positive right now.

Could it be that the CZ's super cycle I have always criticized wants to happen?

Even CZ himself is no longer confident in what he said… so what should we expect when the person who made the statement is already unsure about what he said? It simply won't happen because there is nothing that could trigger it.. so I think we can just forget about that idea and be more realistic about the current market.

[Popkon6]

image by bitcoin magazine

Wait!
Have we just had the shallowest bear market ever in the history of bitcoin?
Or are we expecting a huge correction, owing that halving is about 568 days away.

If the bear market is simply over, that means this is the shallowest bear market ever, and  I now understand why it was said that institutional adoption will result to less volatility.

What's your take; is the bear market over?

According to my knowledge and according to the cycle, the bear market is not over yet because it will take a long time to reach the bull market later. The halving is still a long way off, so according to my research, it is still enough time for a correction. The price of Bitcoin will increase more in the future but we should not panic about the current price increase of Bitcoin, now is a good opportunity to hold for a long time because the price of Bitcoin has just increased by one step after a sharp decline.
However, the price of Bitcoin will definitely increase and according to the cycle, the price of Bitcoin can be corrected in the future?

[drangos]

I believe it's too soon to say it was the shallowest bear market. Having a draw down to define the cycle is important but also the length of the draw down and the subsequent recovery phase play a significant role. Bitcoin has deceived the market in the past with a belief that it had reached a bottom, followed by a retesting of the same levels. I think the likelihood of another big correction is not averted, but it may be dampened by institutional demand. I'd prefer a new ATH with a higher market structure before calling the bear market over.

[KingsDen]

While I still believe that we are in a bear market, it doesn't mean that it's all going down and down and down. We know that there are times where we see the market going up just like what we saw in the last 2 months. It's the same when we were in a bull run last year.

In the past bear markets, we see more downs than ups, but this time, we are seeing continuous up. The only reason we will say it's not a bull market yet is because we are not seeing an ATH.

TBH, like you I'm also seeing some bull run signs as well, but I'm a firm believer of the 4-year cycle, so I don't see this as a NEW BULL RUN just like what we saw last year, and with regards to CZ's prediction of having a supercycle, I still believe that it will not happen, and I don't see any reason that it's happening. Do we see the people online saying "we are in a bull market" blah blah blah that much compared to what happened during the 2025 bull run season? I don't think so.

I believed CZ about the super cycle, but I believed him the wrong way. I thought it was going to happen as he described. But now I am realising that what he said it gradually happening.

Last cycle, we saw a new ATH before having, which has not happened before. This time, it's also obvious that we'll see a new ATH before halving. Don't you think that the pattern is falling?

I believe that this isn't the start of the new bull run season, but assuming that we are nearing the end of the bear market season, this is the start of the "accumulation phase" where many investors are starting to accumulate Bitcoin hence, the increase in the price of it.

Yea, halving is still far... About 80k+ blocks which is projected to happen in 2028. So, expecting bull run from now is unrealistic. Besides, the greed/fear index is 73% greed, you know what this means...

[Out of mind]

image by bitcoin magazine

Wait!
Have we just had the shallowest bear market ever in the history of bitcoin?
Or are we expecting a huge correction, owing that halving is about 568 days away.

If the bear market is simply over, that means this is the shallowest bear market ever, and  I now understand why it was said that institutional adoption will result to less volatility.

What's your take; is the bear market over?

If we look at the market movement and performance, we can definitely say that this is the lowest price drop of the Bitcoin market ever. We saw that the Bitcoin price reached a high of $126k and then faced a big decline where the market reached a low of around $57k. After a long period of decline, the market has now moved higher and the current market price seems very positive. The current performance of the market and the way it is moving forward, we can hope that the bear market may be over. Although there is still a long way to go until the halving, we can say based on the current situation of the market that the bear market may be over.

[Pandu Geddon]

If we look at the market movement and performance, we can definitely say that this is the lowest price drop of the Bitcoin market ever. We saw that the Bitcoin price reached a high of $126k and then faced a big decline where the market reached a low of around $57k. After a long period of decline, the market has now moved higher and the current market price seems very positive. The current performance of the market and the way it is moving forward, we can hope that the bear market may be over. Although there is still a long way to go until the halving, we can say based on the current situation of the market that the bear market may be over.

If I'm not mistaken, the decline also started in October last year. After reaching the ATH, the price continued to drop, although in some phases of the decline, we could indeed say the bearish market has ended. Previously, there was some doubt because pump and dump movements occurred several times. But if the current Bitcoin price can rise positively, it will truly leave the bearish market behind.

Although the decline that occurred was not as severe as previous bear markets, the price drop still caused turbulence in the market.

[BALIK]

I believe it's too soon to say it was the shallowest bear market. Having a draw down to define the cycle is important but also the length of the draw down and the subsequent recovery phase play a significant role. Bitcoin has deceived the market in the past with a belief that it had reached a bottom, followed by a retesting of the same levels. I think the likelihood of another big correction is not averted, but it may be dampened by institutional demand. I'd prefer a new ATH with a higher market structure before calling the bear market over.

You can't really be certain about anything in a market as volatile and unpredictable as crypto.

But looking at what's happened, Bitcoin is already up nearly 40% from its July low around $57k. On top of that, Bitcoin only gained around 80% in last bull market, which is pretty modest compared with previous cycles. My point is, you can clearly see Bitcoin's volatility is coming down.
Put it all together, it's not wrong or overly bullish to say we have already bottomed and this could be the shallowest bear market yet.

But, yeah better to be ready for  both scenarios . Don't get too complacent.

[Leahized]

If we look at the market movement and performance, we can definitely say that this is the lowest price drop of the Bitcoin market ever. We saw that the Bitcoin price reached a high of $126k and then faced a big decline where the market reached a low of around $57k. After a long period of decline, the market has now moved higher and the current market price seems very positive. The current performance of the market and the way it is moving forward, we can hope that the bear market may be over. Although there is still a long way to go until the halving, we can say based on the current situation of the market that the bear market may be over.

I think these ups and downs are normal. Because after Bitcoin halving, it reaches the highest level every time and has to reach the lowest level for correction. In November 2021, we saw a maximum level of 68 thousand and then it reached a lower level again. Therefore, there is no need for too much analysis on these. Because after the next halving, it will move forward on the same path again. Maybe during those times we can see even bigger declines.

However, moving forward depends on time and circumstances. Yes, it is certain that there is currently enough upward reaction. But according to the world situation, any unwanted event can happen at any time. And the bullish sentiment of Bitcoin can be the cause of its demise.

[Kryptowerk]

It's pretty surprising when comparing to previous cycles... However previous performance does not predict future performance, I think most people may be a little bit too focused on static patterns. Patterns that will actually change over time.
Another important thing to remember is that Bitcoin's price is correlated to so many factors (some know, some hidden) that making too many assumptions just based on the past is very risky imho.

Maybe the shallowest bear market ever. Maybe the mid supercycle correction. Maybe the whole "cycle" thing is obsolete now. Who knows, right?
[...]

Exactly this! Zooming out a little there were many positive-BTC, negative-Fiat events happening during the current "bear-phase" that may have skewed the usual pattern a lot.

[shinratensei_]

What's your take; is the bear market over?

I do think bear market is ending, the halving deadline isn't hard schedule for when bitcoin should be bullish isn't it? latest halving happened in 2024 yet market has been bullish since a year before or more. This is the institutional effect where holders are dominated by diamond hands instead of paper hand so there is less bitcoin selling pressure and the shorters are just delayed bitcoin buyers because every bitcoin they borrowed will be bought back eventually to complete the contract. So my conclusion is, it's going to be the shallowest bear market ever.

[Swordsoffreedom]

What's your take; is the bear market over?

I do think bear market is ending, the halving deadline isn't hard schedule for when bitcoin should be bullish isn't it? latest halving happened in 2024 yet market has been bullish since a year before or more. This is the institutional effect where holders are dominated by diamond hands instead of paper hand so there is less bitcoin selling pressure and the shorters are just delayed bitcoin buyers because every bitcoin they borrowed will be bought back eventually to complete the contract. So my conclusion is, it's going to be the shallowest bear market ever.

Iirc, the last halving happened on April 20, 2024, but Bitcoin had already broken its previous ATH and set a new one on March 14, just around 40 days earlier. The actual cycle top still came in Oct 2025, roughly 18 months after the halving, same as the previous cycles.

Sure, the halving isn't a fixed schedule and it's not the only catalyst for a BTC rally. But it'd be a bit hasty to brush off its role completely.

With how things look atm, I can agree this is the shallowest bear market so far. But that doesn't mean the bull market is just around the corner.

[Jubilee58]

image by bitcoin magazine

Wait!
Have we just had the shallowest bear market ever in the history of bitcoin?
Or are we expecting a huge correction, owing that halving is about 568 days away.

If the bear market is simply over, that means this is the shallowest bear market ever, and  I now understand why it was said that institutional adoption will result to less volatility.

What's your take; is the bear market over?

Your observation maybe right because it is very obvious that Bitcoin is decreasing in volatility as the price increases in every bull season. When you take proper look of Bitcoin price history, you will understand that Bitcoin is no longer as volatile as the initial days. I think the reason is because the price has grown so tremendously, and it is becoming more stable. More also, many investors are now involved, big institutions, government, and individuals, the Bitcoin market is expanding with very large market capitalization, and I think this is not only peculiar to Bitcoin, it also applies to other digital assets like gold large stocks etc. However, it is still possible that the price might dip further but might not be significant.

[STT]

With a rising 200 day average and BTC staying above the 50 day average recently, also the monthly average means we are only short term negative and likely BTC remains bullish.
   The one negative indicator obvious to me is we remain with a negative trend over an entire year, the selling has not yet dissipated fully and imo the recent highs correlate to volume resistance.   If we just draw across the chart, the current highs are previous lows of some months in the previous downtrend, so BTC isn't moving through this area easily any better then ice flow in an arctic voyage.

  Slow and steady progress is best here and likely what occurs for the rest of the year is my guess for some time; this doesn't make us negative just slower then many hoped for.