Bitcoin doesn't seem to care about yields, bond volatility is another story

[DKeller]

US 10-year went over 5.13% yesterday, highest since 2007, and BTC dropped from around $87.2k to $83.5k on the same day. So of course the "high yields = bad for bitcoin" crowd is back.

Thing is, CoinDesk checked the correlation between BTC daily returns and 10y yield moves and it's pretty much nothing. -0.18 over 90 days, -0.06 over 180, -0.03 over a year. BTC is up 191% since 2021 while 10y yields in the US, UK, France and Germany went up 400-500+ bps. It's actually hard to call yields a big headwind with numbers like that.

The MOVE index looks like a better explanation for yesterday. Jumped 21% to 95, highest since April. Rates being high is one thing, but when Treasuries start swinging around people dump risk, and BTC goes with it.

Still, I wouldn't lean on that correlation too hard. BTC had ETFs, a halving and treasury companies buying since 2021, so any rate effect could just be buried under all that.

Anyone here actually watch MOVE, or is it mostly yields and DXY for you?
If the Fed keeps hiking, is bond volatility the thing to worry about rather than rates?

Source: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/09/24/the-data-proves-it-bitcoin-doesn-t-care-about-rising-bond-yields-over-long-term

[BIT-BENDER]

Why is it like this now, I believe many will ask How did we get here? Honestly Bitcoin was meant to be an entity of its own, the financial freedom away from the traditional financial system which can't beat the allegations of manipulation, Godfatherism and a political tool.
Gradually we have started to normalize Bitcoin as some asset under the United States of America control, I don't care if you are right or not but we are going down a path that will end up at Bitcoin losing its independence on government or worse it's decentralized nature threatened.

[Free Market Capitalist]

Why is it like this now, I believe many will ask How did we get here? Honestly Bitcoin was meant to be an entity of its own, the financial freedom away from the traditional financial system which can't beat the allegations of manipulation, Godfatherism and a political tool.
Gradually we have started to normalize Bitcoin as some asset under the United States of America control, I don't care if you are right or not but we are going down a path that will end up at Bitcoin losing its independence on government or worse it's decentralized nature threatened.

Well, actually, what the article's title says—in case it wasn't clear from the link—is this:

The data proves it: Bitcoin doesn't care about rising bond yields over long-term

So no, it’s not an asset under U.S. control, as you conclude. These kinds of comparisons make more sense today than they did a few years ago, because Bitcoin has fully entered Wall Street and is an asset that may be more closely correlated with other economic factors than it was 10 years ago, for example. But in any case, I want to emphasize that the article says no; people who look at what happened yesterday and draw conclusions—aside from that—have absolutely no idea that correlation doesn’t imply causation, especially with such a small sample size.

[Marvelockg]

Why is it like this now, I believe many will ask How did we get here? Honestly Bitcoin was meant to be an entity of its own, the financial freedom away from the traditional financial system which can't beat the allegations of manipulation, Godfatherism and a political tool.
Gradually we have started to normalize Bitcoin as some asset under the United States of America control, I don't care if you are right or not but we are going down a path that will end up at Bitcoin losing its independence on government or worse it's decentralized nature threatened.

Eventually, this was bound to happen, it is just a matter of time. as adoption increase and politician and world leaders get involved, there is no way their weight will not be felt as far as bitcoin investment is concerned. bitcoin might be powerful as an independent asset but as long as the end users are people and that it responds to buy, sell and certain sentiment, the narrative is bound to change. if bitcoin was not this way, by this  time it would have been brought down because the government always want to have a say in what becomes a major talking point globally.

[Doan9269]

Bitcoin will always remain the way it has been independently created to exist without any support expected from centralized the authorities, that is why many of us discovered today that we needed bitcoin than it needed us to serve it, so many institutions are already aligning their budget and planning over Bitcoin being a strategic asset, government cannot buoyantly present themselves as in full support of Bitcoin because of its decentralization also, but we can obviously see the difference from what bitcoin and created in relation to other centralized assets of investment and currencies, it's network will always remain independent of all the centralized stocks and assets.

[Alpha Marine]

Why is it like this now, I believe many will ask How did we get here? Honestly Bitcoin was meant to be an entity of its own, the financial freedom away from the traditional financial system which can't beat the allegations of manipulation, Godfatherism and a political tool.
Gradually we have started to normalize Bitcoin as some asset under the United States of America control, I don't care if you are right or not but we are going down a path that will end up at Bitcoin losing its independence on government or worse it's decentralized nature threatened.

As much as this was unavoidable, this is not what the OP was talking about. The OP was only trying to imply that these economic or financial activities do not always correlate with Bitcoin's price, and I agree with him.
People try to find a correlation with everything and Bitcoin. It has been different things in the past. Things like the US debt, wars and many more. Bitcoin is a financial asset, and of course, economic and financial events, and even geopolitical events affect Bitcoin, but they should stop looking for a correlation in everything.

There is no way Bitcoin will not be interlinked with the financial system. The people who use it are people who are in the real world, so what affects them and the decisions they make affects Bitcoin. SO I don't see anything wrong with Bitcoin being affected by economic activities.

[batang_bitcoin]

I think that article is for the no coiners who are still observing bitcoin. We know that there's no correlation of it and bitcoin doesn't work the same as the bonds. I think coindesk wants to make it easier for these people to understand on how it had worked lately and how much it had pump/drop. So they use the comparison for them to give them that idea that it's better than any of the other assets and investments that they know of.

[Gragebox]

I believe there is a distinction between yields and bond volatility here. Just an elevated 10-year yield alone does not necessarily imply that BTC will perform poorly, given the fact that the long-term data has shown such a feeble connection between these two.

But perhaps more pertinent in the face of a market whooshing high or low is the speed at which conditions are roiling. When the MOVE index a measure of bond market volatility is accelerating to the upside, that could be an indication that all asset classes will feel the heat if investors are pulling back from risk. And even bitcoin can be dragged in that risk-off direction.

In addition, I would be cautious using MOVE as a valid Bitcoin indicator. Bitcoin has its own list of drivers and the correlations will look different as the market structure evolves. For me, yields, DXY and bond volatility are really the three pieces I want to be thinking about in conjunction rather than any one of them being a quantifiable indicator.

[Alphakilo]

The main point I want to emphasize is that interest rate levels only matter in the long term but liquidity drops is often caused by a sharp yield swing.
So it's okay to assume that high interest rates is not enough to stop Bitcoin, but institutions will quickly sell off their Bitcoin holdings if there's a sudden volatility in bond yields.