Central banks higher rates will finish wars

[BlackHatCoiner]

That's what helped them begin turning the dollar into the world reserve and start dominating (something that helped them win WW3 aka Cold War). At the time everyone had faith in it (and no other choice) so they started buying the lie; also the US didn't need to incentivize them to do so.

Having faith and having no other choice isn't the same. I don't believe that the world really had faith in the US dollar, considering Nixon broke the gold standard promise for foreign countries in 1971. Did the US arrangements with Saudi Arabia restore some faith with the petrodollar? I don't know, but it seems the entire time the world just doesn't have another choice.

The US is an Israeli puppet State, and as long as the banking system and NATO with expansions in the entire EU, is controlled by those people, I don't think there's any faith but any other choice either. Sure, the US empire is falling and BRICS is rising, but which government / central bank will impose its fiat currency to the BRICS system? No country wants a brand new US system with another name, and I highly doubt they would rather use hard money (Bitcoin, gold) for their settlements; there's just too much temptation for the conqueror state to print money.

[pooya87]

Sure, the US empire is falling and BRICS is rising, but which government / central bank will impose its fiat currency to the BRICS system? No country wants a brand new US system with another name

I don't think we are going to see such level of centralization any more. The unipolar world is ended so there is no reason to see one government/central bank push its own system on the rest.

What I think is going to happen is that in the multi-polar world there will be multiple power blocs and in each bloc the situation will be different. Kinda like what exists in the European Union with a single currency, similar regulations, etc. So in each bloc various "unions", "associations" and whatever will be formed and within those organizations new rules will be agreed upon for trading using a single currency.

For example inside the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) they've been trading with each other using their own local currencies for a couple of years now.
Also in BRICS there are already some alternative means of payment being used amongst the members although they are slow at making a major change (like adopting a single currency called BRICS or something) mainly because some of the members keep singing a different tune (like India). So it needs a little more time to either get these members in line or remove them from the bloc to be able to move forward.

Things will speed up when the conflicts are concluded and those who are undecided and are "dragging their feet" are convinced which side they want to stand with! That's when new payment systems materialize.

[tiCeR]

That's what helped them begin turning the dollar into the world reserve and start dominating (something that helped them win WW3 aka Cold War). At the time everyone had faith in it (and no other choice) so they started buying the lie; also the US didn't need to incentivize them to do so.

...

The US is an Israeli puppet State, and as long as the banking system and NATO with expansions in the entire EU, is controlled by those people, I don't think there's any faith but any other choice either. Sure, the US empire is falling and BRICS is rising, but which government / central bank will impose its fiat currency to the BRICS system? No country wants a brand new US system with another name, and I highly doubt they would rather use hard money (Bitcoin, gold) for their settlements; there's just too much temptation for the conqueror state to print money.

Is it just about temptation or is it a major condition for governments, or the conqueror as you named it, to stay in control of orchestrated manipulation of all kinds of numbers (money, budgets, ...)? Governments need tools that serve their own interest and purpose within no time. Printing money, adjusting banking balance sheets, faking numbers of the public budget, all of that is perfectly possible with a fiat system, but would run into permanent deadlocks with a currency like bitcoin.

Take Germany as an example and how they introduced the unlimited special fund for military spending. It's nothing but manipulating numbers to represent money that doesn't exist in reality. Without the ability to create funds out of thin air, everything would have collapsed already or would do so at a much faster rate. Bitcoin is definitely not the tool they need/ would want to push their agenda.

I think this was the perfect example last year when the newly elected government said that money must be saved immediately, only to then announce the special fund for military spending and that this fund has no limits. At the same time they claimed this fund would have no negative impact on the overall public budget. Huhhhh?... Ok...

[yixichloro2xx]

Sure, the US empire is falling and BRICS is rising, but which government / central bank will impose its fiat currency to the BRICS system? No country wants a brand new US system with another name

I don't think we are going to see such level of centralization any more. The unipolar world is ended so there is no reason to see one government/central bank push its own system on the rest.

What I think is going to happen is that in the multi-polar world there will be multiple power blocs and in each bloc the situation will be different. Kinda like what exists in the European Union with a single currency, similar regulations, etc. So in each bloc various "unions", "associations" and whatever will be formed and within those organizations new rules will be agreed upon for trading using a single currency.

For example inside the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) they've been trading with each other using their own local currencies for a couple of years now.
Also in BRICS there are already some alternative means of payment being used amongst the members although they are slow at making a major change (like adopting a single currency called BRICS or something) mainly because some of the members keep singing a different tune (like India). So it needs a little more time to either get these members in line or remove them from the bloc to be able to move forward.

Things will speed up when the conflicts are concluded and those who are undecided and are "dragging their feet" are convinced which side they want to stand with! That's when new payment systems materialize.

The Eu could have been so powerful but It still looks like the European Union are still under Trumps control. Was it not yesterday that he ordered Germany, France and co to release/sell into the market their reserve diesel in order to calm the global oil market price that has been surging for a while . At first they rejected it ,but today I am already seeing that they have accepted Trump's request since he already threatened them that he will ban their diesel export. I don't see the EU in the miultiplor conversation since they can't act mostly on their own without the US.  I can agree that the unipolar world order or block has ended, currently I see the world run by 2 major countries China and USA as a bipolar . China has lots of influence on Countries like IRAN, Even Russia who is supposed to big the players but their economy looks weak etc.  for now the Western hemisphere is under USA control while the EAST under China.  Even the Union that are being formed or already formed the major big players will still be this two countries.

[Unknown Op]

In the higher rates there is not enough financies to boost wars.
Also there is not enough to keep long positions on oil wheat gas markets with higher rates fiscal situation.
But its too bad for usdt since this liquity was held of blackmarket glencore trades if wars stops it can depegg.
If wars don't stop big instutions like bl vanguard will lose funds only glencore wins not usa.becauase on higher rate no funds for LONG positions.

The truth- our life in world depemds of the markets exchangers long / short even if you can't understood nothing about it the long and short will dictate your life

"Economic truth makes you free understood money and econony u understood politics"

It is true that the interest rate influences the financial side of wars. But I do not agree that having a higher interest rate will automatically help in ending wars. Governments have different ways to fund wars. Mainly through an existing budget in which they have given a particular amount to this sector, by taxation, reserves or by shifting spending from other areas to the wars. Cost of borrowing does not define the ability to finance a war.

The markets of oil, wheat and gas are being driven by multiple factors including physical supply, demand, transportation, shortages and production decisions. So higher rates can make long positions more expensive and it can also reduce liquidity. Markets cannot dictate our lives. They influence investment, jobs, currency and prices. Whereas government and real-life events influence the market. To understand politics better, it is good to have a complete understanding of the economic conditions. Real-world events come first and markets react to them.

[Darker45]

While I do believe there's an economic side in every war, this is obviously oversimplification. War is part of the human race, an integral part at that.

Long before there were central banks, long before the existence of interest rates, long and short in the market game, and what not, there were already wars. Wars could be triggered for many reasons.

It could even be ignited by religion, itself a system supposed to be promoting spirituality, peace, and harmony. Ironic as it may seem, wars could even be waged in the name of peace and order.

[abhiseshakana]

~
The truth- our life in world depemds of the markets exchangers long / short even if you can't understood nothing about it the long and short will dictate your life

Well, that’s no longer the case. Nowadays, logistics is becoming more important, and so‑called trading capital is taking the lead. The times when the tail was wagging the dog (when the paper prices of financial speculators dominated the economy) are gone forever. Generally speaking, according to Wallerstein, the growing financialization of the economy is a sign of a descending Kondratiev wave (what we’ve been observing since the 1990s), i.e. the end of a cycle. Now a new cycle is beginning.

The dominance of different forms of capital within the cycle is approximately as follows: the rising wave is trade capital, the peak is industrial capital, and the falling wave is financial capital. This is one variant.

However, many scholars believe that the outgoing wave was actually the last one. Because capitalism is dying. Why will there be no more capitalism? Because the labor of robots will cost about 0. Consequently, there will be no effective demand, mass production will lose its meaning, and capital accumulation will become impossible - which is the main goal of capitalism.

P.S. Perhaps capitalism will return in a new guise in about 200 years. This will happen when the value of control over spaces (both physical and virtual) is devalued. This is likely to happen as a result of expansion to other planets in the solar system, in one form or another. There will be too many spaces, and control will become worthless. An analogy from history: the discovery of the New World (America).

I actually view the paper market as the source of the problem. The real sector such as manufacture and factories in production, logistics in motion, and physical commodities is the true foundation of the economy. Subprime mortgage 2008 show a real threat arises when the paper market grows far larger than the real sector. It destroy economic, jobs and businesses in the real sector. Who makes the trouble and who beras the impact, so i see paper market odten acts astrouble maker on our real economy.

In the long run, the price of shares must reflect the performance of the company's real sector, can you imagine how frighteneing when a company has a valuation of billions of dollars in the paper market but does not produce real products or profits in the real sector. Matter of fact even paper market has illusion power but they have real legal power and liquidity or capital flows within it which often hold the real sector as hostage by dictating the prices of goods, job availability, and the economic stability of our lives.

[DrBeer]

Isn't it the exact opposite?

The higher rates is the warmongers' way of raising more funds for their criminal wars around the globe. They need to raise the rates to encourage people to "lend" them money so that they can wage their wars.

It is also a chain of events that comes back on itself (like a circular thing!).
They wage wars --> It damages the economy --> Price of everything goes up --> They raise the rates --> That damages the economy even more --> They run out of money to wage their wars --> They start borrowing more but the economy is screwed so they need to raise it even higher to encourage people to lend them money --> It damages economy even more ....
This goes on until the whole corrupt system falls apart.

Even now, the fighting is taking place far from the U.S., and the U.S. is also on the other side of the world.... Believe me- the geographical location of the continents hasn’t changed since the mid-20th century! And the U.S. military has always been present in various regions to maintain peace - back in the days of Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy, and now, for example, against IRGC terrorists in Iran.

I’ve covered geography, now let’s talk a little about economics and rising interest rates.

Problems:
The rising cost of borrowing: Interest rates on commercial loans, mortgages, and bonds are rising. It’s becoming more expensive for businesses and the general public to borrow money. Result: lending is dropping sharply, and repayments are also declining
Decline in consumer demand: People are starting to save more (as deposit rates rise) and spend less.

But there is a silver lining, though it comes with some caveats: If the aggressor is a major exporter of energy resources (oil, gas), and global interest rates are rising due to an inflationary shock, that country’s nominal foreign-currency earnings may remain high.
 As long as high interest rates in the West do not trigger a global economic crisis, demand for raw materials remains strong, ensuring a cash flow to finance military operations.

I wonder - who’s the real beneficiary here!?

P.S. No, this won’t help the IRGC junta in Iran - it still can’t sell its oil to anyone at all...

[STT]

If all this money had gone into repaying the debt it'd be far more boring but more profitable in the returns possible.   War is attractive because the production costs for the weapons of war will create jobs but for the total cost to society its a negative.

  Right now if rates kept rising to over 7% Im not sure it would bring the stability people imagine.  We have to also consider headline rates vs real rates which is where inflation is accounted for.
   I think turmoil with rising rates is most likely and in that reaction we struggle to regain control by ending wars wherever possible but the solution and relief is likely not immediate, the pain is far more likely to occur first and be surprisingly hard to stop.

  I heard and read all these arguments twenty years ago, the landscape preceding Bitcoin amazingly people thought things were bad then also. What stuck with me as a phrase or logic paradigm that apparently stands true across generations is when rates are rising, gold will do best and that's counterintuitive because it should mean stronger cash less excess, a tighter harder market.
  The reason is apparently the cause of the rate rise is most often a slipping in control, the headline vs the reality or real rates belies a vast appreciation in gold and various factors occurring in instability, like war I guess.

   Higher volatility is ahead even if they raise the rates its on the map now.

[impulse709]

Higher interest rates can increase the cost of financing a war, but I doubt they are enough to end one. Governments may prioritize military spending even when it means borrowing more or cutting other budgets. Also, commodity prices depend on actual supply disruptions, not only on traders' long and short positions. One interesting point is that higher rates can benefit stablecoin issuers holding interest-bearing government debt, so the effect on USDT is not as straightforward as the original post suggests.

[drangos]

I believe the primary difference is between the cost of war and the ability to pay for war. There is a relationship between interest rates and the cost of borrowing. And higher rates can strain government budgets. But the ability to spend on the military also relies on political priorities. Taxation and existing debt. Whether or not governments can decide to reduce their spending in other areas in order to end a war. This is also true for markets. Traders may still get in and out of positions despite the high cost of financing. But the risks will rise. The effects of monetary policy on the cost of conflict have to be discussed but wars can. Only be ended by political decisions and negotiations.

[viljy]

~
The truth- our life in world depemds of the markets exchangers long / short even if you can't understood nothing about it the long and short will dictate your life

Well, that’s no longer the case. Nowadays, logistics is becoming more important, and so‑called trading capital is taking the lead. The times when the tail was wagging the dog (when the paper prices of financial speculators dominated the economy) are gone forever. Generally speaking, according to Wallerstein, the growing financialization of the economy is a sign of a descending Kondratiev wave (what we’ve been observing since the 1990s), i.e. the end of a cycle. Now a new cycle is beginning.

The dominance of different forms of capital within the cycle is approximately as follows: the rising wave is trade capital, the peak is industrial capital, and the falling wave is financial capital. This is one variant.

However, many scholars believe that the outgoing wave was actually the last one. Because capitalism is dying. Why will there be no more capitalism? Because the labor of robots will cost about 0. Consequently, there will be no effective demand, mass production will lose its meaning, and capital accumulation will become impossible - which is the main goal of capitalism.

P.S. Perhaps capitalism will return in a new guise in about 200 years. This will happen when the value of control over spaces (both physical and virtual) is devalued. This is likely to happen as a result of expansion to other planets in the solar system, in one form or another. There will be too many spaces, and control will become worthless. An analogy from history: the discovery of the New World (America).

I actually view the paper market as the source of the problem. The real sector such as manufacture and factories in production, logistics in motion, and physical commodities is the true foundation of the economy. Subprime mortgage 2008 show a real threat arises when the paper market grows far larger than the real sector. It destroy economic, jobs and businesses in the real sector. Who makes the trouble and who beras the impact, so i see paper market odten acts astrouble maker on our real economy.

In the long run, the price of shares must reflect the performance of the company's real sector, can you imagine how frighteneing when a company has a valuation of billions of dollars in the paper market but does not produce real products or profits in the real sector. Matter of fact even paper market has illusion power but they have real legal power and liquidity or capital flows within it which often hold the real sector as hostage by dictating the prices of goods, job availability, and the economic stability of our lives.

That’s absolutely right. This is precisely the phenomenon of the financialization of the economy, when financial markets begin to account for almost half of the economy (without producing any real value). And this harms the real sector of the economy. But up to a certain point. Then financial markets become detached from reality.

A sign that financiers have lost control over the real sector is the divergence between real prices and paper prices (a good indicator now is the divergence between the price of real oil and paper oil). The second sign is the withdrawal of part of global trade from the dollar zone. This primarily applies to trading in yuan, and to a lesser extent in other local currencies.

[PERtua]

The main issue is that higher interest rates raise the cost of doing a war. But do not necessarily force governments to discontinue a war. A government can decide to spend more on the military. Even if it means that they are spending more than they should on the debt. And that they are spending less money on other public services. The more intriguing question is whether this plan is viable for the long haul as interest rates increase and economic pressures grow. Political decisions can take a very different time to come to fruition compared to markets responding to shifting expectations.

[abhiseshakana]

The main issue is that higher interest rates raise the cost of doing a war. But do not necessarily force governments to discontinue a war. A government can decide to spend more on the military. Even if it means that they are spending more than they should on the debt. And that they are spending less money on other public services. The more intriguing question is whether this plan is viable for the long haul as interest rates increase and economic pressures grow. Political decisions can take a very different time to come to fruition compared to markets responding to shifting expectations.

Matter of fact economic consideration always win compared with political consideration. When government ignoring the market, high interest rates justify the very high price government must paid. This will bring catastrophe to their fiscal foundation heading towards collapse before the war ended.

POV investor; I willing to fund high levels of government debt only if the incentives (bond yields) are commensurate with the risk of default. So I remind you, id I realize that your country's fiscal burden is no longer sustainable due to the long term war, I will demand even higher profits or I even refused to buy those your bonds. At this point we show that slow political decision must bow to economic reality which bring massive market pressure to government.

[DrBeer]

I asked the AI to analyze the causes and consequences of the increase in the discount rate for Russia, which is waging a terrorist war against Ukraine, and for the U.S., which is conducting a special military operation in Iran.
The numbers speak for themselves:

Factor	🇷🇺 Russia	🇺🇸 USA
Share of expenditures in GDP	Critical (6-10%+ of GDP). Completely distorts the economy and depletes reserves.	Low/moderate relative to total GDP (within 0.5-1.5% per operation).
Main source of inflation	Domestic: uncontrolled injections of "empty" rubles into the military-industrial complex amid a shortage of goods.	External: a global spike in energy prices due to the conflict in the Middle East.
Result of the rate hike	Isolation, suffocation of civilian business, rising bankruptcies and a high risk of stagflation.	Cooling of the domestic market, a stronger dollar and price stabilization.

[BlackHatCoiner]

I don't think we are going to see such level of centralization any more. The unipolar world is ended so there is no reason to see one government/central bank push its own system on the rest.

I think this is a very optimistic way to view things. Man has used everything in his disposal to take power and money, and we've reached a point in history when the conquerors can literally print money without the peasants revolting against this taxation without representation. Whether geographically the world will be "unipolar" or not, there will be a banking cartel that controls the wealth of nations, and it will be handled on a plate by the average person and democracy.