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Author Topic: Altcoin season in 2026: How to identify it?  (Read 127 times)
Criptoview (OP)
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September 28, 2026, 04:01:14 PM
 #1

Altcoin season is a period in which most of the leading cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin (the altcoins) rise more than Bitcoin itself. The most widely used test comes from Blockchaincenter's Altcoin Season Index: it is altcoin season when at least 75% of the 50 largest cryptocurrencies, excluding stablecoins and asset-backed tokens, outperformed Bitcoin over the last 90 days. On September 28, 2026, that index stood at 59, so by the official rule it was not altcoin season, even though the shorter 30-day window was already at 80. No single indicator confirms the season.


Leave your opinion in the comments.


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bangjoe
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September 28, 2026, 04:32:21 PM
 #2

The altcoin season is an illusion that many people look forward to, thinking that altcoins will increase simultaneously in 30 days is wrong, from what I have seen in previous cycles, altcoins are much faster based on the narrative that is built in the community, so the price increase on altcoins is concentrated and liquidity only rotates from narrative A to narrative B and to the next narrative, such as in the example RWA narrative, AI narrative, DEX narrative, Meme narrative, L1 narrative, L2 narrative, Oracle narrative and many more.
Although the index shows a positive increase in altcoins but with rotating liquidity it will be very difficult to find price increases like several previous cycles, and sometimes each cycle has a difference to show the strength of altcoins.

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September 28, 2026, 04:54:15 PM
 #3

Altcoin season is a period in which most of the leading cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin (the altcoins) rise more than Bitcoin itself.
Show me the great outcome of those altcoins that you think outperformed Bitcoin during the altcoins season you are referring to and I will show you Bitcoin which is still standing firmly, Bitcoin is not a pump and dump shitcoins, the last time I hear about good altcoins season was few years back when some shitcoins made some lucky dude rich and currently majority of those coins and tokens are dead. Bitcoin bull season is what some of these surviving altcoins now depends onow there is no seperate altcoins season happening.
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September 28, 2026, 05:22:52 PM
 #4

Altcoin season is a period in which most of the leading cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin (the altcoins) rise more than Bitcoin itself.
Altcoin season is a period in which any altcoin can get pumped massively in short term. The characteristic of this period is a large amount of capital that is injected into the whole market and it goes from altcoin to altcoin pumping each before dumping them and moving to the next.

The pump period of each altcoin does not last that long and their better performance is very short lived. We saw the best altcoin season in 2017 where even dead shitcoins (a coin without a blockcahin! that is only listed on some dead exchange) were getting pumped like this.

This is not going to happen in 2026 or any time soon because of the way global economy has entered a recession that is only going to get worse. In such times people are not so willing to nor do they have any money to invest in anything least of which highly risky stuff as altcoins.

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Criptoview (OP)
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September 28, 2026, 06:52:55 PM
 #5

The good investor seizes opportunities. Those who fell in love with BTC will take longer to make money.

Last 30 days:
NEAR 170,38% / BTW 150,52% / ARB 133,92% / SUI 56,72% / UNI 92,11% / BTC 7,51%


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Jostle
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September 28, 2026, 08:08:29 PM
Merited by d5000 (1)
 #6

The good investor seizes opportunities. Those who fell in love with BTC will take longer to make money.

Last 30 days:
NEAR 170,38% / BTW 150,52% / ARB 133,92% / SUI 56,72% / UNI 92,11% / BTC 7,51%



I beg to differ. Hindsight is 20/20. Those who pursue altcoins find themselves usually in a loss. Survivorship bias is real here. People post they make 100x  on altcoins, but that's only for those who made it. There are most who lost all, but don't post about it.
Criptoview (OP)
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September 28, 2026, 08:28:31 PM
 #7

The good investor seizes opportunities. Those who fell in love with BTC will take longer to make money.

Last 30 days:
NEAR 170,38% / BTW 150,52% / ARB 133,92% / SUI 56,72% / UNI 92,11% / BTC 7,51%



I beg to differ. Hindsight is 20/20. Those who pursue altcoins find themselves usually in a loss. Survivorship bias is real here. People post they make 100x  on altcoins, but that's only for those who made it. There are most who lost all, but don't post about it.

This happens to the vast majority of people who start buying assets when prices are high, including those who buy Bitcoin.

Michael Saylor misled a lot of people by saying that Bitcoin is never sold... Now, there are already people saying that "Altcoin Season" doesn't exist...


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pooya87
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September 29, 2026, 06:22:02 AM
Merited by d5000 (2)
 #8

The good investor seizes opportunities. Those who fell in love with BTC will take longer to make money.

Last 30 days:
NEAR 170,38% / BTW 150,52% / ARB 133,92% / SUI 56,72% / UNI 92,11% / BTC 7,51%
Shitcoins have always performed fantastically in short term and that's why altcoin trading (not altcoin investing) has been a very good way of making quick profit even though it has extremely higher risks.

Zoom out and analyze the full chart of any of these shitcoins you named and you'll see.
NEAR:
This shitcoin had its moment in the sun back in 2022 at its early stages (like any other shitcoin). It got a massive pump from 5800 sat to 46000 sat (700%) and it has been down the hill ever since (like any other shitcoin), dumps after dumps with sometimes a dead cat bounce.
The recent pump you are talking about is also not "last 30 days". It was barely 3-4 days. The first signs of the pump came out when it started rising with high volume (injected by the pumping team) on 16th when the price went from 3000 sat to 3400 sat. That is the entry point for traders. The signs of pump running out of steam came on 19th when they couldn't keep the volume up and I say the exit should have happened on 20th when the price reached 5100 sat (for a 50% profit).

BTW:
You can predict the future of this shitcoin by looking at the previous one! It is in its early stages (ie. NEAR in 2022) and is getting pumped for the time being. It is highly risky to bag-hold it while at the same time it can be highly profitable (the other shitcoin got pumped 3900%).

Bitcoin
Bitcoin is solid. It has ups and downs but it is not being pumped and dumped. It never has downward spiral where the price keeps going lower and lower with some dead cat bounces before it dumps more. Each time it has a bear market, it has an end and it starts going back up.
This is why when a shitcoin like NEAR was 5000 sat back in 2020, bitcoin was about $3000. And now that NEAR is 5600 satoshi after 6 years, bitcoin is $80k+. That is 12% rise versus 2566%.
This is why people love bitcoin and hate shitcoins.

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bananaunana
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September 29, 2026, 09:56:16 AM
 #9

2026 can still be a big Altcoin Season when overall market sentiments are in favor of it.
When I say Altcoin, I mean all Altcoins offering potentila like for Example Avalanche. It is currently rank 24 on Coinmarketcap but hat a lot of more potential.

1NaNa2ba8hLt3a2yhR3S9cmk3XosiTLwb3
Abu-Naim
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September 29, 2026, 05:44:36 PM
 #10

The good investor seizes opportunities. Those who fell in love with BTC will take longer to make money.

Last 30 days:
NEAR 170,38% / BTW 150,52% / ARB 133,92% / SUI 56,72% / UNI 92,11% / BTC 7,51%


 Wink Real-time quote:criptoview.net  Wink
Taking longer time to make profit is better than taking big risk in investing in some altcoins you can’t be rest assured due to market situation; the only altcoins that are give some profits are big altcoins that already have reputations. No matter how bad the market goes, Solana, BNB, ETH, and some big projects will find their way back to their previous prices, while some altcoins are not coming anywhere closer to their previous price and when another dip hit them again, they go dipper and die in the process.
Fast profit in crypto market comes with high risk, while Bitcoin is more safer, but you will have to hold for some years before making profit.

crwth
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September 29, 2026, 05:49:16 PM
 #11

If there were a run-up of altcoins. I think once it has overtaken in volume, or just as general alts go up, it would be considered.

For me, it would be dependent on BTC Dominance. If it falls, it can mean it has moved into the altcoin market. Usually, that happens after a significant increase in BTC's price.

+ the movement of ETH. It may be the first to really move.

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Balmain
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September 29, 2026, 06:44:43 PM
 #12

Altcoin season is a period in which most of the leading cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin (the altcoins) rise more than Bitcoin itself. The most widely used test comes from Blockchaincenter's Altcoin Season Index: it is altcoin season when at least 75% of the 50 largest cryptocurrencies, excluding stablecoins and asset-backed tokens, outperformed Bitcoin over the last 90 days. On September 28, 2026, that index stood at 59, so by the official rule it was not altcoin season, even though the shorter 30-day window was already at 80. No single indicator confirms the season.


Leave your opinion in the comments.


  Wink Learn more: https://criptoview.net/en/altcoin-season-como-identificar/  Wink
I remember the a few altcoin seasons, there hasn't been a rally like that recently. Those who lived through that altcoin season know what it was like everything would rise, and it felt like the rally would never end. We are wrapping up the 2026 season without a bull run  there wasn't a real run, but that doesn't mean one won't happen.
If there were a run-up of altcoins. I think once it has overtaken in volume, or just as general alts go up, it would be considered.

For me, it would be dependent on BTC Dominance. If it falls, it can mean it has moved into the altcoin market. Usually, that happens after a significant increase in BTC's price.

+ the movement of ETH. It may be the first to really move.
When ETH finally starts making a solid move, yes, this will be the signal.

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September 29, 2026, 08:29:32 PM
 #13

Will the altcoin season ever come again? This is the question many have been asking and until now, there is no clear explanation whether we will see an altcoin season ever again. The market has not stayed this long without seeing a significant push towards that after a successful halving events followed by the bullish market. I think the altcoin market is now showing its true self, it is now showing that they’re not an asset to depend on but rather we should focus on assets like bitcoin. Some have lost hope of the altcoin season ever coming again while a few are still optimistic that it is still going to come any moment from now even though the market is still showing a negative resentment towards that.

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September 29, 2026, 09:01:24 PM
 #14

From the indicators presented in the article, TOTAL3 is the one convincing me most.

However, I would remove stablecoin marketcap from it. Stablecoins have a different dynamic than other altcoins, and a rising stablecoin market cap even can indicate fear (people exchanging other coins for stablecoins, stablecoin issuers subsequently issuing more coins -> higher market cap). Or it responds to effect which have nothing to do with altcoin seasons (like an increase in remittances).

So my favourite indicator would be: TOTAL3 minus stablecoins.

I would even think an indicator like "altcoins position 21 to 1000 without stablecoins and wrapped tokens" would make sense ("TOTAL4"?). Like pooya87 wrote, in strong altcoin seasons the capital spreads down deeply into the small-caps. Such an indicator could thus separate simply "good times" for the big altcoins from a real frenzy like in 2017 where investors don't care at all about the fundamentals of the tokens and coins.

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