No manual to Bitcoin future, only historical data.

[EarnOnVictor]

Everyone is depending on historical data to make analysis and give their speculation of the  future price of bitcoin. Nobody knows the future to know precisely what bitcoin price would be,

This is more reason why it baffles me the way some people idolise key figures online, especially the rich guys and public figures. Once they talk, they think some kind of god in human form has spoken. Whereas, it's just a speculation; there own very view of what Bitcoin could possibly do, and not a kind of certainty, as no one knows what the future holds, especially when they predict those prices that Bitcoin has never attained before.

[Ishicryptic]

Not just Bitcoin, there is no manual to the future of any assets, we rely on their historical data to determine whether they have potentials to give profit in the future, the level of trust of the historical data will determine the amount that we are willing to invest in them. Remember that when Bitcoin was created it had no hysterical data and that was why a lot of us didn't pay much attention to it, so now that it's data has proven that it is a valued asset like gold so it makes sense to invest in it. We just have to be cautious about investing in Bitcoin beyond amounts that we can afford to lose because there is no guarantee that it must be profitable to our expectations.

[slaman29]

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I don't stick with these coins; the only reason I trade them is because of the possible continued pump, but I still have some references, including the volume and momentum changes and conditions must met before I make some trades. Even if it is sitting to oversold zone, it's just a signal that there's a high possibility of reversal. Actually, I am waiting for that reversal because I only enter pullbacks, not exactly pullbacks, but if I see rejections and meet my momentum and breakouts, then that is going to be my entry setup. My strategy includes price action, but I still need some indicators like EMA50/100/200 for trend analysis and MFI/RSI for momentum analysis.

Risky or not, I trade only based on my conditions and rules. I haven't traded just because the coin is risky or the current situation is risky. I have a system that I follow; it's not random or something. I strictly follow the rules and conditions; breaking them will give me a bad result.

Might be surprising to hear, but this is rare and if so, a lot of respect from me. These days, you hear the most basic comments: risky project, risky devs, risky caps, risky platform (which to me are actually quite valid from a DD perspective).

But if you're just a short-term trader, and not a flipper 'investor', and the data is enough that you get 200 MAs, then you're better of trading on your conditions and rules.

Refreshing, good luck to you!

[TheUltraElite]

From the historical price, we can get an idea how low or how high the prices can go.

But we surely cannot predict how much the next all time high is going to go up to neither can we predict when that is going to happen.

Hence trading will depend on how you are placing your trades. You can keep buy orders open at prices that are low to buy at and put sell orders on opposite - or you can waitfor the drop or rise to start and then depending on how fast the price is changing, you place the orders.

Its not an exact science but still it can be done.

[Finebone]

Holding bitcoin now is not about people should be expecting huge ROI, but bitcoin can be a store of value asset for you if you understand about it.

I believe that It can still gives out up to 5-10x of it current price in three to five circles from now, but it may not be as profitable as it was when it was still below 1k, but investing in it as a store of value is not a bad idea either, because your hopes will not be too up like someone that is expecting a huge amount of returns from his or her investment.

If it is trading, it is a different case. I use 10% of my income to trade which I can afford to lose.

When trading the market, we should be using a funds we can afford to lose, so that we wouldn't feel much of the effects if our trades did not go as planned, so you are doing the right thing by using only 10% of your income to carry it out, because it also helps you to trade the market without emotions.

[#CapsLOck]

Useful historical data, but I believe that the greater worry is to regard historical patterns as rules. The market structure of Bitcoin continues to shift with the changes in liquidity, uptake, regulation and institutional involvement in this market. When a pattern repeats more than once doesn't necessarily mean that it will repeat on the next occurrence. In my opinion, historical data is more useful in establishing a range of potential scenarios and level of risk than for making a specific forecast of the price. The plan becomes fragile if this one cycle pattern is required to repeat for the thesis to work. Better is to have a simple thesis, determine what might invalidate it and make it small enough so that you don't have to make an emotional choice to be wrong.

[SilverCryptoBullet]

Useful historical data, but I believe that the greater worry is to regard historical patterns as rules.

Bitcoin market has its cycle from price actions to psychological actions but patterns or fractals can have accuracy and work like charm or some other times does not work well for price speculation. Then knowing about market history, cycles, patterns, fractals is good but not enough and a famous reminder is "Don't time the market, don't outsmart the market".

The market structure of Bitcoin continues to shift with the changes in liquidity, uptake, regulation and institutional involvement in this market. When a pattern repeats more than once doesn't necessarily mean that it will repeat on the next occurrence. In my opinion, historical data is more useful in establishing a range of potential scenarios and level of risk than for making a specific forecast of the price.

You can use them for having different scenarios, on what to do especially for accumulation that is most important for your portfolio building and profit from it over time. If you can accumulate bitcoin gradually with time, and hold it a long time, profit will be a likely guarantee for you. You will get bigger bitcoin portfolio than other people who hesitate, try to speculate the market, and miss many opportunities for purchases, then you will get better ROI and bigger profit too.

[Alphakilo]

From the historical price, we can get an idea how low or how high the prices can go.

But we surely cannot predict how much the next all time high is going to go up to neither can we predict when that is going to happen.

Hence trading will depend on how you are placing your trades. You can keep buy orders open at prices that are low to buy at and put sell orders on opposite - or you can waitfor the drop or rise to start and then depending on how fast the price is changing, you place the orders.

Its not an exact science but still it can be done.

I couldn't help when the thought of AI bot trading came into my mind while reading through some of the comments.
You know the current hype about using AI bots to trade, it makes me wonder if AI relies so much on historical data when they execute orders as instructed by the trader or they simply predict based of the traders' already developed strategy, past data or current market speculation data available?