Growth Rate: Bitcoin vs. S&P 500 and Gold

[LuckyCrypto777]

It took Bitcoin 14.3 years to grow 15,400x. By comparison, it took the S&P 500 98.7 years to achieve the same growth.

And it took Bitcoin 9.7 years to grow 100x. It took gold 55 years to achieve the same growth.

Bitcoin's limited supply and the speed of its adoption do their job.


Source

[_act_]

What you will notice about the three is that they are all store of value. Bitcoin grew faster, but it is a new asset which makes it normal. That does not mean bitcoin will grow as it was in the past because its marketcap has significantly increased. Bitcoin is now in their category. It may not grow more than 50x in the next 50 years, and that is if it grows up to 50x.

[Joy_learns_crypto]

It's more like Bitcoin fixed supply of 21 million than limited, although 21 million for the interested people world wide is limited but it's more of because people know the fixed amount of Bitcoin and they don't want to miss out that drives the high demand.
In conjunction with the fixed and limited supply the utilities of Bitcoin also drives the adoption.

[Free Market Capitalist]

You're comparing apples to oranges. Gold has thousands of years of history, and we don't have reliable data on the fluctuations in value that might have occurred during the “first” 10 or 15 years after it began to be used as a store of value a few thousand years ago. The S&P 500 is a different kind of asset, in my opinion. If you’re going to compare it to the stock market, you might as well look to see if you can find a former small-cap stock that skyrocketed in just a few years.

[LuckyCrypto777]

You're comparing apples to oranges. Gold has thousands of years of history, and we don't have reliable data on the fluctuations in value that might have occurred during the “first” 10 or 15 years after it began to be used as a store of value a few thousand years ago. The S&P 500 is a different kind of asset, in my opinion. If you’re going to compare it to the stock market, you might as well look to see if you can find a former small-cap stock that skyrocketed in just a few years.

Overall, I both agree and disagree with you. I'd compare small-cap stocks not to Bitcoin, but to the growth of some altcoins.

[BlackBoss_]

It took Bitcoin 14.3 years to grow 15,400x. By comparison, it took the S&P 500 98.7 years to achieve the same growth.

And it took Bitcoin 9.7 years to grow 100x. It took gold 55 years to achieve the same growth.

If you need to check with details, check here.
CaseBitcoin.com (useful)

At the main page of casebitcoin.com, you will get some table with enough details but if you need a chart for a visual check, here
https://casebitcoin.com/charts#roi_chart

Bitcoin's limited supply and the speed of its adoption do their job.

Only limited supply is not enough to make Bitcoin high value and you can see how many Bitcoin forks failed and died even they have same total supplies as Bitcoin has or some altcoins with smaller total supplies than Bitcoin but their coins don't have high value, even zero value.

[CryptoVPN]

Now let's calculate how much it can grow over the next 20 years, based on the current price and gold prices. I think gold has an equal chance of making a good return. Gold has been there since ancient civilisations. So we can't compare according to this. It has to be a start point to start.

[JaanusRaim]

BTC price change during its first dozen years (2009-2020) was ca 8 orders of magnitude (from 0.001 USD to 50k USD)
BTC price change during its second dozen years (2021-2032) will probably be +/- 1 order of magnitude in the nowadays USD purchasing power
and the same for its third dozen years (2033-2044).

The first years BTC hyperdeflation was just a matter of beginning. I bet it was similar with stocks 400 years ago and gold few thousands years ago... the gold prices were orders of magnitudes different in different countries just a few hundreds of years ago.

[Free Market Capitalist]

You're comparing apples to oranges. Gold has thousands of years of history, and we don't have reliable data on the fluctuations in value that might have occurred during the “first” 10 or 15 years after it began to be used as a store of value a few thousand years ago. The S&P 500 is a different kind of asset, in my opinion. If you’re going to compare it to the stock market, you might as well look to see if you can find a former small-cap stock that skyrocketed in just a few years.

Overall, I both agree and disagree with you. I'd compare small-cap stocks not to Bitcoin, but to the growth of some altcoins.

The growth of some altcoins is similar to the growth of Bitcoin in the firsts years. What I'm getting at is that you can't draw any conclusions from the comparison you're making. We all know that Bitcoin experienced spectacular growth during its first 10–12 years. We'll have to wait and see what happens over the next 12 years at least.

[hd49728]

BTC price change during its first dozen years (2009-2020) was ca 8 orders of magnitude (from 0.001 USD to 50k USD)
BTC price change during its second dozen years (2021-2032) will probably be +/- 1 order of magnitude in the nowadays USD purchasing power
and the same for its third dozen years (2033-2044).

The first years BTC hyperdeflation was just a matter of beginning. I bet it was similar with stocks 400 years ago and gold few thousands years ago... the gold prices were orders of magnitudes different in different countries just a few hundreds of years ago.

With growth of price and market cap, the ROI annually or cyclically will become smaller with time, as it's true not only with Bitcoin but all other assets. Earliest birds and investors have big advantage of very cheap entry prices but they actually take very high risk like Bitcoin will die. Now in 2026 or some recent years, there was no longer such fear because Bitcoin was already matured enough, strong enough so risk of sudden death no longer exists. However, late comers, late investors had disadvantage of more expensive prices for their accumulations.

However, think positively, if they can buy bitcoin, hold it and get very good profit years later, why don't do that. Why do they have to concern about their entry prices in 2026 and next some years while their investment portfolios are for very long term.

[Fiatless]

Now let's calculate how much it can grow over the next 20 years, based on the current price and gold prices. I think gold has an equal chance of making a good return. Gold has been there since ancient civilisations. So we can't compare according to this. It has to be a start point to start.

Returns on Bitcoin are gradually declining. Some crypto analysts believe that this will continue as the market matures. I also agree that Bitcoin's future price increase will slow compared to how it was years back.

However, think positively, if they can buy bitcoin, hold it and get very good profit years later, why don't do that. Why do they have to concern about their entry prices in 2026 and next some years while their investment portfolios are for very long term.

It will be good to have all of these assets as a means of diversifying streams of income.

[Zoomic]

Going from almost nothing to a huge global asset is such a short period of time is just very difficult to ignore, that's definitely why Bitcoin attracted the huge attention it got.

That said, I'm not going to view it from the point that Bitcoin has "beaten" gold or S&P 500. Though they have comparisons but we know they're different assets that started from complete different points.

Before Bitcoin, there was no successful digital currency/asset so it had the advantage of being a new technology going through adoption phase.

[Cryptomultiplier]

You're comparing apples to oranges. Gold has thousands of years of history, and we don't have reliable data on the fluctuations in value that might have occurred during the “first” 10 or 15 years after it began to be used as a store of value a few thousand years ago. The S&P 500 is a different kind of asset, in my opinion. If you’re going to compare it to the stock market, you might as well look to see if you can find a former small-cap stock that skyrocketed in just a few years.

Comparing Bitcoin to the S&P 500 and gold which are all of different asset class is quite somehow to me because they are all have their growth rate and acceptance rate based on individual and group adoption around the world, with different metrics and operating modus operandi to begin with.

Bitcoin is hard capped at 21 million supply and this means increase in demands is supposed to mathematically raise its price value and adoption rate. It promises a hedge against inflation for all fiat currencies, a product of the breakthrough of the internet, trades 24/7, integrates rapidly and that's why both modern Internet savvy generation and the old who rely on Internet access to complete across border transactions and with its Blockchain system easily and quickly adopted it.

[GeorgeJohn]

Bitcoin is now in their category. It may not grow more than 50x in the next 50 years, and that is if it grows up to 50x.

That's your personal theory...Remember that bitcoin reaching 50X and above, can be depend on the global adoption..So everything that concerns bitcoin achieving 50X in the next 50 year is determined by the market circles..The price of Bitcoin basically changes, and you and I, doesn't know the future baseline of bitcoin, especially what it will trade on....

[Oshosondy]

That said, I'm not going to view it from the point that Bitcoin has "beaten" gold or S&P 500. Though they have comparisons but we know they're different assets that started from complete different points.

This is very true. Another thing is the marketcap. Rich people like where their money is very safe like putting it in gold which is less volatile. They will be afraid of putting their money in bitcoin before because of the high volatility and low marketcap. But they can not put their money in bitcoin as bitcoin volatility has reduced, the market cap has gone up significantly and very difficult to manipulate the bitcoin market now than before. In short, what I am communicating is that there are many rich people that just like where they will not lose money and not risk volatile assets and be satisfied with the low return.

[aoluain]

You're comparing apples to oranges.

Yes its certainly an Apples and Oranges comparison but fun all the same.


All 3 are different and all 3 have been compared in the past here many times.

I would like to hope that a good 50% of the Bitcoin investors* did so as a means to escape
the negative points of FIAT and the corrupt banking and financial systems with the belief in
what Satoshi promised in the whitepaper. And the other 50% is speculation which is common
in all markets.

Those percentages are obviously non-scientific but there is obviously a mix of people with
their own goals.

* Investors - I suppose everyone is investing in their own future and in the future of the network.

[Gost ms]

The price of Bitcoin was much lower earlier, so we have seen such an increase, the price of Bitcoin is now much higher, from now on we will probably see the price of Bitcoin gradually increase like the price of gold. Because before the price of Bitcoin was low, even if a person bought a small amount, it was possible to see a huge increase in percentage, but now the price of Bitcoin is much higher, now if a person buys a small amount of Bitcoin, the percentage does not increase as much as before. Even if the price of Bitcoin increases 10 times according to the current market, the current price of Bitcoin will probably be above 800,000 dollars and the acceptability of Bitcoin will have to increase a lot, only then this is possible.