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Unlike traditional casinos, prediction platforms actually have social value. 🙋
I'll give two examples... It's long been noted that predictions on Polymarket are more accurate than opinion polls or the opinions of armchair experts. Why? Because prediction platforms attract people who are willing to risk their money and don't want to lose it. This isn't the classic "wisdom of the crowd," but rather the "wisdom of the crowd of insiders and true experts." This is why Polymarket predictions have been frequently mentioned in the media recently. If such predictions are more accurate than those of analytical agencies, then why pay those agencies? Establishing the truth is a crucial function in our deceptive and chaotic world.
The second example has to do with hedging. Let's say you're a businessman and you're afraid that Donald Trump will impose tariffs that will ruin you. You go to Polymarket and bet on this event. If Donald Trump imposes tariffs, you win the bet and offset the losses of your business. Is it possible to do this in an online casino? Of course not!
When playing at a centralized casino, you're generally playing against the house. Even if it's a multi-player game, all lost bets generally go to the house, and all winnings are paid out of the house's own funds. This is the case with most casino games. 💁
To be honest, in my opinion, this is a good attempt to present evidence using some, no offense meant, manipulation. I’ll give a couple of examples that also prove this quite well:
- There were absolutely unbelievable bets on events that couldn’t have been known in advance - unless… you were an insider with advance information
These examples are fairly well-known, and I’d guess they’re not the only ones.
- Second, I believe that such platforms can be used precisely for manipulation and to bestow the status of "great experts" on certain individuals, even though it’s a completely staged setup -and then, using that status as a cover, the manipulation begins… But this is strictly my personal point of view on this specific situation!
