Polymarket has self exclusion

[viljy]

Prediction markets are, of course, a type of betting, that is, gambling. Even if you call it futures trading for predictions, the essence will not change. So the possibility of self-exclusion is quite an appropriate option for clients. Predictions are not a commodity, but information. But after all, regular bookmaker bets are also information. A roulette bet on a number is also information.

All this information is united by the fact that it has or does not have a value only at the time of the event execution. And this value is not in the intrinsic worth of the information, but in the value assigned to it in the form of a bet. That is, it is not information as a commodity (for example, like the game RDR2 or OS Win or a database), so the prediction market is merely a format for placing bets in the form of market contracts. That is, a platform for gambling.

[TastyChillySauce00]

The fact that they are implementing this(not that I am against it or anything) just shows that they are more of a gambling platform than a "prediction market", as they want to call themselves. At this point, they should also add a "gamble responsibly" policy on their website. As some politicians in the US have said before to Kalshi/Polymarket(or at least similar to it), "it is still gambling even if you wrap it differently".

They will add it at gambling policy to their so called prediction market after Newyork will be winning their case by suing them operating as an illegal gambling site. However, they have Trump's son sitting as their advisory board, and this is kinda difficult to make it happen without winning the case against them in court.
They already tried so hard to built their entire business by hiding the concept of gambling. If court will able to find that, i'm sure they will be cooked.

We have Newyork who is trying to do that for us. Hopefully, Poly can no longer avoid gambling regulation by being classified as prediction market instead of gambling company. I think any state should have followed Utah's decision to implement a strict anti gambling law against any of prediction market.
When it happens LeBron will lose his job from being hired as a promotional guy for prediction market lmfao.  

[Orpichukwu]

The fact that they are implementing this(not that I am against it or anything) just shows that they are more of a gambling platform than a "prediction market", as they want to call themselves. At this point, they should also add a "gamble responsibly" policy on their website. As some politicians in the US have said before to Kalshi/Polymarket(or at least similar to it), "it is still gambling even if you wrap it differently".

Their activities are wrapped around gambling no matter how they want to make it look, but even if they are not gambling platforms, with the way people can easily get addicted to things, including trading things like this, it should be set in place and not just for gambling alone.

Even the warning “gamble responsibly” can be rephrased to suit that particular activity; it might not help much, as people can always find their way around after self-exclusion, but it’s better than such an option not existing at all.

[DanWalker]

I never saw them anything less than a gambling site. That’s what they are. There’s no difference at all.
The name prediction market is just a nomenclature.

I cannot agree with no difference at all part here. Due to presence of self exclusion, there is certainly behavioral similarity to gambling, however we cannot claim that entire structure of this two product is identical based solely on this resemblance. In a casino we usually wager against house. However in prediction market we can trade position with other participant and price of the event itself serve as market information or probability signal. After taking position on Polymarket, you can sell it early based on market movement to lock in profit or cut your loss. Mechanics of traditional casino wager do not work this way.

And whether the name prediction market is merely a marketing label is a separate legal question. In my opinion, self exclusion feature does not answer that legal question. There is evidence regarding feature based user risk management, but not conclusive evidence regarding product classification.

[changaa]

Exchanges also have self-exclusion. Some of the exchanges call it cooling-off. But it is not as standard as it is on gambling sites and many among them have expiration, unlike the self-exclusion on gambling sites that you can choose indefinitely.

Many exchanges also have delete account if you think you are addicted to trading, you can delete your account. But you can later create another account on the exchanges.

I do not think self-exclusion should only be in the gambling sites.

I believe that this is a notable step forward compared to other portals where this is not foreseen, i believe that it is very right that they have introduced this functionality and it is right, because there too it is a real gamble, and they have done very well to protect all these people who risk risking everything.

[dwyane36]

After taking position on Polymarket, you can sell it early based on market movement to lock in profit or cut your loss. Mechanics of traditional casino wager do not work this way.

Well, if, for example, you've placed a bet on a prediction market that can be manipulated by major players and insiders, then if things don't go according to plan, you may not even have time to sell and close your position, especially if you're doing it manually rather than through an API. It's precisely at moments like these that prediction markets closely resemble gambling platforms.

[BALIK]

But self-exclusion at Polymarket might not work as well, given that there's also Kalshi.

hmm, to evaluate effectiveness of self-exclusion, it is not enough to simply check whether the feature exists. Extent of the user's practical opportunity to switch to another similar platform is also an important factor. And platform level self exclusion does not completely stop our total exposure. It’s a lot like closing a casino account and moving to another casino.

Even so it wouldn't be right to call this feature completely useless. Temporary access restriction and permanent market exclusion, objectives of these two are not same. first one is immediate risk control and second one is long term exclusion. In my opinion first one is also a meaningful harm reduction measure, although it alone will not solve all problem.

And this limitation does not prove that prediction market is gambling. Rather, it raises separate question regarding effectiveness of self-exclusion system.

[hedgeh0g]

After taking position on Polymarket, you can sell it early based on market movement to lock in profit or cut your loss. Mechanics of traditional casino wager do not work this way.

Well, if, for example, you've placed a bet on a prediction market that can be manipulated by major players and insiders, then if things don't go according to plan, you may not even have time to sell and close your position, especially if you're doing it manually rather than through an API. It's precisely at moments like these that prediction markets closely resemble gambling platforms.

Undoubtedly, various forms of market manipulation exist in prediction markets; however, insider information is also a factor that is actively exploited for profit, and any player entering the market to make money must take this into account. This does not mean it is impossible to turn a profit through one's own intellect, in-depth analysis, and disciplined risk management it is certainly possible but one must realize just how challenging that can be. And, of course, one must not overlook the role of luck, which can turn against us even when we place successful bets that others fail to see coming.

[Hispo]

After taking position on Polymarket, you can sell it early based on market movement to lock in profit or cut your loss. Mechanics of traditional casino wager do not work this way.

Well, if, for example, you've placed a bet on a prediction market that can be manipulated by major players and insiders, then if things don't go according to plan, you may not even have time to sell and close your position, especially if you're doing it manually rather than through an API. It's precisely at moments like these that prediction markets closely resemble gambling platforms.

The resemblance to gambling or betting does not have much to do with manipulation. Because, even if there is no manipulation within predictions markets, they can continue to be quite addictive and trap people to bet more than they can afford to lose.

But I agree with you, there is obvious manipulation within prediction markets, still people will continue to engage and participate in them because they can be very addictive and bring in a lot of money of one happens to be right several times in a row.

[L E G E N D A R Y]

Undoubtedly, various forms of market manipulation exist in prediction markets; however, insider information is also a factor that is actively exploited for profit, and any player entering the market to make money must take this into account. This does not mean it is impossible to turn a profit through one's own intellect, in-depth analysis, and disciplined risk management it is certainly possible but one must realize just how challenging that can be. And, of course, one must not overlook the role of luck, which can turn against us even when we place successful bets that others fail to see coming.

I don’t know how it happens but I think we most underestimate how quickly an edge disappears the moment too many traders figure out and starts using the same pattern. At this point it doesn’t matter how good your analysis is, the market can easily adjust at this point before you even get the chance to benefit from it. For me, it’s crucial for traders to understand and know when their edge isn’t working anymore as this is just as important as finding the edge in the first place.

[MAAManda]

There's this news about Polymarket already acting more like gambling sites as they have announced Deposit Limits and Self-Exclusion... so I thought they were a prediction market, why are they now introducing the same protections we normally see on gambling platforms? self-exclusion is mainly there to help minimize gambling addiction, yet it is now being implemented here as well.

now, this is where regulators should look at it more closely, because if a prediction market sees the need to introduce responsible gambling tools then they should see them like gambling sites. no more prediction market industry, they should join the gambling industry.

Setting aside aspects of prediction markets that might resemble gambling, I view what Polymarket is doing as a way for users to have choices for themselves, particularly about self-exclusion. That feature makes the public view of the platform better, such as the goal of maintaining a public image.

Interestingly, Polymarket doesn't explicitly label itself a gambling platform. However, by implementing this self-exclusion feature, it acknowledges the presence of significant risks on its platform that could be harmful to users.

[ZeroVinsonN]

Exchanges also have self-exclusion. Some of the exchanges call it cooling-off. But it is not as standard as it is on gambling sites and many among them have expiration, unlike the self-exclusion on gambling sites that you can choose indefinitely.

Many exchanges also have delete account if you think you are addicted to trading, you can delete your account. But you can later create another account on the exchanges.

I do not think self-exclusion should only be in the gambling sites.

I believe that this is a notable step forward compared to other portals where this is not foreseen, i believe that it is very right that they have introduced this functionality and it is right, because there too it is a real gamble, and they have done very well to protect all these people who risk risking everything.

It also gives them an excuse, you can't blame them if you get addicted or spend too much money using their services when they've already included a way for you to control how much money and time you spend, at the very least they are taking this step in the right direction and they are doing it early, prediction markets aren't as popular as casinos are, with Poly Market starting it we are bound to see other prediction markets going in that direction as well, it will present them to the world as responsible and show that care for their users, (that's at least what they want us to think).

[Oshosondy]

It also gives them an excuse, you can't blame them if you get addicted or spend too much money using their services when they've already included a way for you to control how much money and time you spend, at the very least they are taking this step in the right direction and they are doing it early, prediction markets aren't as popular as casinos are, with Poly Market starting it we are bound to see other prediction markets going in that direction as well, it will present them to the world as responsible and show that care for their users, (that's at least what they want us to think).

Yes, but this can only help those that are from United States. Anyone that is not from United States can open another account, deposit money from another wallet and use different IP to access the prediction market. Even who knows if the person did not use different wallet address and different IP addresses, that Polymarket will bother knowing if the person gone for self-exclusion before.

[free-bit.co.in]

Well, if, for example, you've placed a bet on a prediction market that can be manipulated by major players and insiders, then if things don't go according to plan, you may not even have time to sell and close your position, especially if you're doing it manually rather than through an API. It's precisely at moments like these that prediction markets closely resemble gambling platforms.

I think manipulation is separate risk from basic market mechanic. More important distinction for me is when will I exit and at what market price can I exit. I don't have such a secondary-market exit for fixed casino wager. But your point is correct, it is not the case that risk decreases simply because there is opportunity to get exit. If market moves too quickly then practical value of theoretical exit option will be greatly reduced. So I will separate the two issue of "Can I exit" and "Can I exit at a useful price"?

[stompix]

Do you think I wasted data center water?

Yup!

First, when you talk normally on a forum you should use your own knowledge for that first.
Second, despite asking the AI stuff with some stupid prompt, you still haven't been able to give me an example on how:
- I can self-exclude myself from buying alcohol
- I can self-exclude myself from buying fast food
- I can exclude myself from buying cigarettes
- I can exclude myself from buying energy drinks

So, I'll do the research for you:
https://www.nsw.gov.au/business-and-economy/liquor-and-gaming/liquor-licensing/licence-respons
This is an agreement between you and a merchant; self-exclusion in gambling is general, with this you simply go to the next shop
https://www.langtons.com.au/self-exclusion.html
Again, this is with an online shop, nothing general, same for the third!

You either don;t know how self-exclusion in gambling is supposed to work, or you haven't actually written what ChatGPT fed you!

So, let me teach you what a 3-second Google search can earn you:
https://www.betstop.gov.au/

BetStop - the National Self-Exclusion Register™ is a safe and free Australian Government initiative to block yourself from all licensed Australian online and phone gambling providers.

This is red bolded all?

Now go ask ChatGPT what it means and how is that different from the previous examples it gave you!

[Swordsoffreedom]

Why is everyone so surprised to see Polymarket introducing self exclusion!
Let's be real, thin line between prediction market and gambling vanished long ago.

You are betting money on future event, regardless of risk or outcome, at the end of the day, without risk management it is nothing more than speculation. However, it is not possible to ignore regulatory pressure. To achieve US compliance, having responsible gambling tool in place is must. If Polymarket doesn't introduce these regulators will ban them. So instead of viewing it as separate industry it makes sense to bring it under purview of gambling regulator.

[JunaidAzizi]

I also think they just adopted that feature to help people who think they're overusing it and because they adopted it from gambling platforms doesn't mean they're one. Afterall Polymartet is designed in a way that people can get addicted to it too like gambling so if adopting features from gambling would serve as mode of discipline that would help customers tackle addiction then it's a good one. A lot of people do confuse polymarket for gambling I'm sure this new features would increase their believe that they're same but they're two different things.
 

Yeah, that's what I want to say if they add something good for themselves and it is from gambling, then you can't say that this is a gambling platform too. Yeah, it can be fine that they adopt it from gambling. But people can't differentiate, and in this century where everything is at your fingertips and you can easily know, how would you be confused? There are more experienced users who would make it very easy, and also a lot of articles and research will be available on Google. You can visit them there and study deeply.

[Zlantann]

Do you think I wasted data center water?

Yup!

First, when you talk normally on a forum you should use your own knowledge for that first.
Second, despite asking the AI stuff with some stupid prompt, you still haven't been able to give me an example on how:
- I can self-exclude myself from buying alcohol
- I can self-exclude myself from buying fast food
- I can exclude myself from buying cigarettes
- I can exclude myself from buying energy drinks

So, I'll do the research for you:
https://www.nsw.gov.au/business-and-economy/liquor-and-gaming/liquor-licensing/licence-respons
This is an agreement between you and a merchant; self-exclusion in gambling is general, with this you simply go to the next shop
https://www.langtons.com.au/self-exclusion.html
Again, this is with an online shop, nothing general, same for the third!

You either don;t know how self-exclusion in gambling is supposed to work, or you haven't actually written what ChatGPT fed you!

So, let me teach you what a 3-second Google search can earn you:
https://www.betstop.gov.au/

BetStop - the National Self-Exclusion Register™ is a safe and free Australian Government initiative to block yourself from all licensed Australian online and phone gambling providers.

This is red bolded all?

Now go ask ChatGPT what it means and how is that different from the previous examples it gave you!

First, my point is that one can exclude themselves from other forms of addictive services besides gambling. And I gave one example, which is alcohol self-exclusion.

Second, there is no place in my post where I agreed to give you examples of self-exclusion relating to alcohol, fast food, cigarettes, and energy drinks.

Third, I never said there are other forms of self-exclusion which worked centrally like BetStop. Is an agreement between a merchant and a customer to restrict access to a service not self-exclusion? Must the request be general or centrally controlled to be called self-exclusion?
 
Fourth, we can have a healthy discussion without using words like stupid.

[retreat]

It's actually a bit confusing because prediction markets keep saying that they are not gambling, yet a lot of what they offer seems to overlap with gambling. I think that it is still gambling regardless of how they explain it, since both involve putting money on an uncertain outcome and in that situation someone could become addicted because they can't control themselves and get stuck in unhealthy behavior. If it's about user safety, I think having these features could be helpful, and that's perfectly normal with those considerations in mind.

[Fortify]

There's this news about Polymarket already acting more like gambling sites as they have announced Deposit Limits and Self-Exclusion... so I thought they were a prediction market, why are they now introducing the same protections we normally see on gambling platforms? self-exclusion is mainly there to help minimize gambling addiction, yet it is now being implemented here as well.

now, this is where regulators should look at it more closely, because if a prediction market sees the need to introduce responsible gambling tools then they should see them like gambling sites. no more prediction market industry, they should join the gambling industry.

Well they clearly take bets and act exactly like a bookmaker in every sense of the word. Maybe originally they tried to hide their antics by doing everything except sports betting, but now they don't even try to hide it. The fact that one of their major investors is the son in law of the US president gives them a lot of protection because nobody in the justice department is going to chase them until there's a new president at least. In the beginning they pretended to be anything but a gambling site, but as you say - all these tools and features are yet more evidence of it. There will likely be a reason behind this, like trying to launch in new countries where the regulators have this requirement or they're trying to distinguish themselves in this area because they have a lot of competitors now. They're actually falling from grace as the previous market leader and have lost that crown to Kalshi who are doing much better now.