Value extraction from live roulette

[Yeesha]

As you know live roulette doesn't follow an algorithm to generate randomness. The dealer spins the ball with his imperfect human hands and the entropy of the butterfly effect leads to hard to predict outcomes every round. There is physics involved but I'd venture to guess that even a very powerful computer couldn't predict the outcomes perfectly in the given time between each spin.

Now, the question of if positive EV can be achieved on live roulette is on if somehow a pattern can be detected. Some have argued that the physics is enough to predict the outcome in terms of which section the ball would land on, at least making better predictions than random ones. But then again there's the house edge, so even if you make predictions better than predicting randomly, the predictions need to be notably and reliably better than just 1%.

The other limitation is that the window to use the physics visible and make a prediction is approximately 3 seconds while the dealer spins the wheel, then the ball and then the game gives this time window before the bets are closed.

A live casino setting allows for a physics calculation to be done via video feed without having to carry equipment in a physical casino and get the police called on you. But the question remains if it's possible to beat entropy to an extent that the house edge also gets beaten and lets the player win long term. Because even with bonuses, rake back/loss back and french rules the house edge might still be too high.

Has this been attempted? Do you think it's possible?

I think that over time, a dealer can notice certain patterns, how hard they spin the wheel, which ball they use, and how the roulette wheel behaves, I mean how accurately it is positioned on the table, whether there are any slight inclines or other factors that could make the ball land in certain sectors more often. Basically all of these things can potentially influence the outcome. But honestly, I think that with a reputable casino, these kinds of issues should be ruled out as well.

Availability of resources should not guarantee lavish spending, especially in gambling. I don't think or believe that a dealer can notice those patterns through the ways you've mentioned. It is going to be difficult to study spinning patterns, I mean, how will I be able to predict the correct result when the thing is spinning? Do you think you would be able to observe while something is spinning? you will only know the result or the outcome when it stops. You cannot use your previous spins to predict the next spin, even if the wheel is functioning well. Don't let this deceive you, or don't let it motivate you to give yourself full assurance about winning.

[stompix]

So surely casinos must have a way to combat this.

Casinos have it much easier today than they did two or three decades ago, when some people managed to exploit imperfections. In addition to ensuring that the roulette wheels have no imperfections, the balls are replaced periodically, as are the croupiers, and today all the results are stored in databases that they can analyze—even using AI—to see if anything seems off.

Not everything is AI
It's a simple algorithm that tracks winning and losing bets and accounts for deviations!
It just does a check on the numbers and if there is a bias on what numbers are played and what are giving away money, those things are from the 80s.
It's a matter of a few lines of code, the same thing for the early devices used by those guys who tried to find patterns: they were a bunch of trsansitors, not a real computer.

There is already a fairly old study about roulette: Predicting the outcome of roulette
Here is a quote from the abstract of the article:

The first system relies only on a mechanical count of rotation of the ball and the wheel to measure the relevant parameters. By applying this techniques to a standard casino-grade European roulette wheel we demonstrate an expected return of at least 18%, well above the -2.7% expected of a random bet. With a more sophisticated, albeit more intrusive, system (mounting a digital camera above the wheel) we demonstrate a range of systematic and statistically significant biases which can be exploited to provide an improved guess of the outcome. Finally, our analysis demonstrates that even a very slight slant in the roulette table leads to a very pronounced bias which could be further exploited to substantially enhance returns.

With the mention that you need 90 frames-per-second hidden camera for that, and they forgot to disclose the number of training spins for it, which is the most important thing, because if you stay there and look at the roulette for 100 spins without betting youre going to be thrown out before you manage to place one!

[Cryptomultiplier]

The other limitation is that the window to use the physics visible and make a prediction is approximately 3 seconds while the dealer spins the wheel, then the ball and then the game gives this time window before the bets are closed.

You are talking about 3 second time window but live stream is not real time!

Live video we see on the screen from Evolution, Playtech or Pragmatic has video latency of at least 1.5 to 3 second. Casino server fires the No More Bets signal exactly 1-2 seconds after ball is released. By the time your AI Vision software detect the ball's initial speed and trajectory in video frame, the casino's software has stopped accepting your bets. That is, there is no physical time window to place the bet even though calculation is processed.

Live betting and online roulette betting are different when we talk about predicting it or even placing bets and while physics may be applied on real wheels, the online roulette is limited by video lags and early bet locks as you have said already, which of course makes it difficult to predict or even calculate the trajectory of where the ball lands.

[BALIK]

Some have argued that the physics is enough to predict the outcome in terms of which section the ball would land on, at least making better predictions than random ones.

How are you assuming that drop of the ball is completely predictable? Modern live casino wheels are not genuine analog wheel. These contain rotor-speed randomizer and steering motor. During each spin wheel is spun at different speed. Which is difficult to detect by simply looking at screen or through ordinary calculation. Material of the ball and shape of diamond deflector are designed in such way that upon impact chaotic bounce and Butterfly Effect come into play to an extreme degree as you said. So, it completely upends the physics equation predicted for 3 pocket range.

[o48o]

-cut-
Has this been attempted? Do you think it's possible?

Predicting has been possible for decades, but how accurate it's another question. It wouldn't hit on the right number but if it could guess the right side of the circle, it might help. Then again, trying to click all those numbers by hand in 3 sec would be impossible, and if it would be done with bot, they would kick you out.

I actually heard about cheaters trying to calculate roulette ball at casinos 20 years ago. This was supposedly happening with lasers hidden in their accessories. Back then i though it could technically be possible, which makes me cringe because i don't think it's plausible with speeds of computers today.

[Julien_Olynpic]

Roulette spins are fundamentally random, but the operation of any physical equipment is not random, as many researchers have observed when attempting to "hack" roulette. For example, the tilt of the wheel's axis can create preferential landing zones for the ball. Or the dealer's hand lotion, falling on the wheel's segments, can alter the ball's trajectory. Over time, equipment wears out, which can affect game results. However, modern casinos take this seriously and study the frequency of hits to find "solid non-randomness." This is an interesting topic, and new breakthroughs are sure to follow.

[OsaiEmma]

Ideally, both cryptocurrency trading and roulette are games of chaos. The outcomes in this game are completely random, so the player has no mathematical advantage. As a result, they inevitably lose in the long run. This is true for both traders and players. 🙋

In my opinion, a player can gain a competitive advantage only by discovering a pattern in the chaos of the game. Such a pattern could theoretically arise either in the roulette system itself or in the human (dealer) system. This means that the dealer could simply be tired or have tendon problems in their hand, causing them to throw the ball in a very specific way. Such a tired or ill dealer is a chance for the player to gain a competitive advantage over the casino.

In fact, casinos aren't completely stupid either. As you may have noticed, dealers are changed periodically. And casinos also change the balls periodically. Moreover, the balls are made of different weights and diameters. This is done precisely to eliminate any pattern in the throw.  However, technology is advancing, and I don't rule out the possibility that in the future, players will be able to conduct more effective attacks on casinos. For example, one could imagine a powerful computer program that could create a complete simulation of a roulette wheel spin and the dealer's ball roll. One could also imagine a large number of players pooling their resources to systematically search for patterns in real roulette. However, all of this, of course, is more science fiction than reality. And even if this were to happen, casino employees would very quickly discover that someone was trying to steal their money this way. 💰

I doubt there is no pattern in trading. Traders trade patterns everyday—although some strictly trade the news—so... saying no pattern in trading is something I can't relate with. Just as you pointed out in your last paragraph, these casinos intentionally introduce different variables to eliminate a very simple, straightforward pattern, making it look like there are no patterns; but with enough data, you can certainly spot those patterns again. Same thing with trading: there are a lot of variables in each and every pattern, it takes discipline and experience (same as data gathering) to spot those variables and still understand the patterns.

This is not easily done though, and we that are observing are also introducing another type of variable; so....as much as it sounds convincing theoretically, it is a completely different experience, process, and outcome, when we try to actually do it in reality.

[Free Market Capitalist]

Not everything is AI
It's a simple algorithm that tracks winning and losing bets and accounts for deviations!
It just does a check on the numbers and if there is a bias on what numbers are played and what are giving away money, those things are from the 80s.
It's a matter of a few lines of code, the same thing for the early devices used by those guys who tried to find patterns: they were a bunch of trsansitors, not a real computer.

Obviously, not everything is AI, but AI is increasingly being used to do things that used to require human labor. I myself don’t know the first thing about programming, and yet I’ve programmed a chatbot using Visual Studio Code—giving it instructions in natural language and watching as it created files, deleted files, and so on. Add to that the fact that AI is making fewer and fewer mistakes or hallucinating less if you prefer.

I don't know about this specific case, but I highly doubt that casinos—and especially sports betting sites—aren't using AI one way or another, given how it's increasingly being used by both individuals and businesses.

[stompix]

I don't know about this specific case, but I highly doubt that casinos—and especially sports betting sites—aren't using AI one way or another, given how it's increasingly being used by both individuals and businesses.

Why?
It makes no sense to use any on something that is so simple; every roulette tracks the numbers that are dealt anyhow, it also tracks the sums paid, just like slot machines have been doing for decades. For roulette, it's simple RFID chips.

You want complicated things, of course you can have this:
https://sigma.world/news/rfid-smart-tables-engagement-casinos-expert/
But this is just cost cutting, not some new tech.

I mean, seriously, we've used that for years in logistics hubs with a Windows Server 2008 R2 in pre-COVID times, if you can run sort and track 100 000 orders on ancient hardware why wold you need a complex AI solution for stats someone can do manually with an Excel file, since spins are anyhow limited to 50 per hour.
Besides, most casinos have player cards, the moment you start winning over a percentage, you're monitored and any human operator can spot your pattern and call secuirty in a few spins.

[hedgeh0g]

Obviously, not everything is AI, but AI is increasingly being used to do things that used to require human labor. I myself don’t know the first thing about programming, and yet I’ve programmed a chatbot using Visual Studio Code—giving it instructions in natural language and watching as it created files, deleted files, and so on. Add to that the fact that AI is making fewer and fewer mistakes or hallucinating less if you prefer.

I don't know about this specific case, but I highly doubt that casinos—and especially sports betting sites—aren't using AI one way or another, given how it's increasingly being used by both individuals and businesses.

Everyone is trying to adopt AI companies need to do so to remain competitive, as failing to keep up with the AI ​​trend would mean a loss of profits. In any case, AI won't help with live roulette unless, perhaps, it appears as a real person on websites and behaves accordingly, effectively replacing the live croupier. Of course, AI is poised to replace not just croupiers but a multitude of professions that can be automated in the near future. Even so, many old-school players will still want to play with real people and live croupiers though I imagine that will come at a higher price.

[Agbe]

When it comes to Roulette games we should no that there is no actually pattern or even Rus which guides it. Every thing is just based on luck because one thing that most people don't Know is that these machines is designed in such a way that is has advantage over anyone playing, it's called the house edge so no mater how hard or how many times some spins that wheels your chances of getting value off it is difficult. This is the reason many people sees Roulette gaming machines within different views but the truth is that irrespective of your believe or even superstition you can't accurately get the movement of a Roulette machine.

[Iranus]

Has this been attempted? Do you think it's possible?

In past, people at physical casino would win by observing dealer's signature.

This meant dealer would repeatedly release ball from same spot using same amount of force.

However afaik live casino dealer now undergo rigorous training to ensure they vary both direction and  force of release with every single spin.

Another importanmt thing is  dealer are rotated at regular interval to prevent any specific pattern from emerging.