[DEVELOPMENT] JJG Bitcoin Fuck You Status calculator 😎

[bitmover]

I have been working with JayJuanGee (JJG) for some time in this tool.

the goal of this tool is to answer this question:
How much coins do you need to say "Fuck you money" ?

This tool shows you historical quantities of bitcoin needed to attain certain example wealth target levels, i.e, the "Fuck You" status. Target levels are  basically $800k, $2 million and $100 million , but they are customizable.

The idea is to project bitcoin price into the future, with all the uncertainties and difficult around it.

The data projection comes from this topic:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719591#msg58719591



https://bitcoindata.science/fuckyoustatus






https://bitcoindata.science/fuckyoustatus

To do:
-A DCA calculator, which will allow you to project a dollar-cost-averaging strategy into the future using JJG Projection of bitcoin price model as the base (also allowing customizing the future projections).


I have never seen similar tool around, so there many possibilities. We are open for suggestions!

Related tools:
https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy
https://bitcoindata.science/dca-calculator

[JayJuanGee]

I have been working with JayJuanGee (JJG) for some time in this tool.
the goal of this tool is to answer this question:
How much coins do you need to say "Fuck you money" ?

This tool shows you historical quantities of bitcoin needed to attain certain example wealth target levels, i.e, the "Fuck You" status. Target levels are  basically $800k, $2 million and $100 million , but they are customizable.

The idea is to project bitcoin price into the future, with all the uncertainties and difficult around it.

The data projection comes from this topic:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719591#msg58719591



https://bitcoindata.science/fuckyoustatus




https://bitcoindata.science/fuckyoustatus

To do: A DCA calculator, which will allow you to project a dollar-cost-averaging strategy into the future using JJG Projection of bitcoin price mole as the base (also allowing customizing the future projections).

I have never seen similar tool around, so there many possibilities. We are open for suggestions!

Of course, there are various explanations already in the tool, yet sometimes a tool like this might not make very much sense until you play around with it and potentially try to put it to use or to try to apply the table to your situation, including your own anticipations regarding what standard of living you are wanting to target.  Prior to 2020, I would frequently use $40k per year as the the default target income, and after 2020, I started to use $80k per year.

And of course, the targets may well even need to change based on the ongoing debasement of the dollar and other fiat currencies.

Previously, I had been tending to cite my fuck you status projection table, but now this table that bitmover created automatically updates itself every 6-ish months, it has both the tables and the charts ways to look at the data, and you can project the price or the quantity of the coins needed while using either a fixed 30% coin premium (presuming the BTC price to tend to be 30% above the 200-WMA) or the cycling of the premium up and down, and like bitmover mentioned you can plug in your own numbers and even how far you would like to project into the future (I tend to like to look out 70 years, yet of course the shorter time frames are going to be more applicable if you are trying to predict how many coins you will need to have within certain timelines in order to achieve certain levels of income from the coins).

The 4% withdrawal rate is based on traditional assets and traditional withdrawal modeling tools. The presumption of a $80k per year budget would require $2 million in assets, so then each year 4% would be withdrawn, and if the asset is growing on average of 4% or more, then the assets would be growing faster than the withdrawal rate. 

I think that even with traditional assets there can be challenges in figuring out how to valuate them?  At spot price or some average or some variation of spot price?  Of course, when the coins are sold, they are sold at spot price.  For each of these models the quantity of coins needed is modeled off of the 200-WMA, which tends to be a bottom price.

I tend to believe that bitcoin can support a 10% withdrawal rate, especially if the value of the is being done based on the 200-WMA rather than the BTC spot price, and so actually selling at spot price will tend to give a cushion, as long as the BTC price is at least 25% higher than spot price, which my sustainable withdrawal tool should be helpful in showing those calculations.

I got a couple more ideas for the tool:

1) probably it would be good to have a "share link" that would allow the sharing of the user inputs

2) probably the DCA calculating tool should be linked in this thread

Thanks again bitmover.  It is nice to see this tool go live, and to be able to play around with it should be helpful to guys... even though I am going to start to link to this tool (whenever referring to fuck you status) rather than my own table that historically has spent quite a bit of time being "out of date".

[I_Anime]

This is actually a nice tool ngl. I find the concept really interesting, rather than focusing on where or how high bitcoin’s price might go , this looks at how much BTC one will need to reach a particular financial target . With this one will be able to figure out on how to manage his finance in order reach his target accumulation goal ( or rather their fuck you status). I definitely need something like this to figure mine properly, I don’t know how to navigate it for now but I will surely play with it to get the hang of it .

probably it would be good to have a "share link" that would allow the sharing of the user inputs

That would be nice. Instead of typing out their results, one can simply share the link for others to see, saving them the stress.

[JayJuanGee]

This is actually a nice tool ngl. I find the concept really interesting, rather than focusing on where or how high bitcoin’s price might go , this looks at how much BTC one will need to reach a particular financial target . With this one will be able to figure out on how to manage his finance in order reach his target accumulation goal ( or rather their fuck you status). I definitely need something like this to figure mine properly, I don’t know how to navigate it for now but I will surely play with it to get the hang of it.

Let's say for example you had an income of $30k per year and you were buying $100 bitcoin per week since December 2022, and so up until now you had accumulated 0.41 BTC.

Maybe if your goal was to get up to an income of $40k per year and then to plan to withdraw within the 10% of your 200-WMA status, and maybe you think that in the next 10 years, you might be able to accumulate up to 1 BTC, and you could see that within the tool it shows that with an income target of $40k per year and a 10% withdrawal rate, 1 BTC would be enough starting in late 2036.

Of course, you pick your target in come level, and surely if you think that you need to be more conservative in your withdrawal rate (such as 4% rather than 10%), then you would need to either accumulate more BTC to get to the same withdrawal rate (such as $40k per year) in the same amount of time or maybe you would need to change your timeline or how much BTC you are buying each week.

[I_Anime]

This is actually a nice tool ngl. I find the concept really interesting, rather than focusing on where or how high bitcoin’s price might go , this looks at how much BTC one will need to reach a particular financial target . With this one will be able to figure out on how to manage his finance in order reach his target accumulation goal ( or rather their fuck you status). I definitely need something like this to figure mine properly, I don’t know how to navigate it for now but I will surely play with it to get the hang of it.

Let's say for example you had an income of $30k per year and you were buying $100 bitcoin per week since December 2022, and so up until now you had accumulated 0.41 BTC.

Maybe if your goal was to get up to an income of $40k per year and then to plan to withdraw within the 10% of your 200-WMA status, and maybe you think that in the next 10 years, you might be able to accumulate up to 1 BTC, and you could see that within the tool it shows that with an income target of $40k per year and a 10% withdrawal rate, 1 BTC would be enough starting in late 2036.

Of course, you pick your target in come level, and surely if you think that you need to be more conservative in your withdrawal rate (such as 4% rather than 10%), then you would need to either accumulate more BTC to get to the same withdrawal rate (such as $40k per year) in the same amount of time or maybe you would need to change your timeline or how much BTC you are buying each week.

So  what you are trying to say is that , the smaller my withdrawal percent per annual the more bitcoin I will have to accumulate. Which also means longer your accumulation phase will take depending on your cashflow. So for instance an individual hit his 1 BTC goal,  and then he further decided he want to be withdrawing $30k as his 4% from his investment annually , such folk will still have to further accumulate till eventually have enough bitcoin that can actually generate that amount range yearly . Though , is not certain for one to have a fixed withdrawal percentage due to price volatility.  I’ve never reason it this way, this is actually nice with this I can make some adjustments in my bitcoin goal . But I will start from achievable goal first base on my cashflow maybe overtime I will scale up.

If I may ask, Is it better to set a BTC target first, or set an annual income target and work backwards?



These features are looking clean too . I tried them and they are working smooth , also like the idea of the converter supporting 172 fiat currencies. Still navigating the tool .

[bitmover]

I will mention @vapourminer here because he said he is interested 

[...] our new tool, "fuck you status"

i have no idea what that tool may or may not be but im all in already

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out

So  what you are trying to say is that , the smaller my withdrawal percent per annual the more bitcoin I will have to accumulate. Which also means longer your accumulation phase will take depending on your cashflow. So for instance an individual hit his 1 BTC goal,  and then he further decided he want to be withdrawing $30k as his 4% from his investment annually , such folk will still have to further accumulate till eventually have enough bitcoin that can actually generate that amount range yearly . Though , is not certain for one to have a fixed withdrawal percentage due to price volatility.  I’ve never reason it this way, this is actually nice with this I can make some adjustments in my bitcoin goal . But I will start from achievable goal first base on my cashflow maybe overtime I will scale up.

If I may ask, Is it better to set a BTC target first, or set an annual income target and work backwards?

You can plug your target income level into the fuck you status tool and you can see that if you project out 10 years, you will need 2.5x more bitcoin if you are considering that you can ONLY employ a 4% withdrawal rate as compared with if you are considering that you could employ a 10% withdrawal rate.    Of course, you have to consider a withdrawal rate that is reasonable, and I am very much a fan of sustainable withdrawal (meaning that it can be done forever) versus a kind of withdrawal that depletes the principle, unless there is a purposeful reason for depleting the principle, such as age and/or health.

So, surely the withdrawal rate is sustainable so long as on average the bitcoin holdings is growing faster than the withdrawal rate.   The historical backlogs in the sustainable withdrawal tool shows that quite aggressive withdrawal rates of greater than 10% per year could have had been employed and still the bitcoin holdings would grow faster than it was being withdrawn - especially if the bitcoin holdings were valued using the 200-WMA and the withdrawals were being done based on the dollar target.

From my point of view, guys can make mistakes by wrongly valuating their holdings (getting overly excited about spot price) and then ending up withdrawing too much too soon based on their presumptions that spot prices are sustainable and really the 200-WMA tends to be more sustainable since it is considered a bottom price, so therefore the 200-WMA tends to move around a lot less.. and also ongoingly tends to go up (at least so far in bitcoin's history).

If we use the default annual income of $80k in the fuck you status tool, then we can see that in June 2020, it would have had taken 135.5 BTC to support that $80k annual income level, in December 2023, it would have had taken 27.5 BTC, in June 2025, it would have had taken 16.7 BTC, and currently the December 2026 projection is that it will ONLY take 11.4 BTC to support that same annual income of $80k.

Of course, we can use the fuck you status tool to project forward based on presumptions of how much the 200-WMA will continue to grow, and see how many bitcoin it would be considered to take at various points in time in the future to sustain that same income level of $80k per year, yet we an also use the simulation tool within the sustainable withdrawal tool to backtest what would have had been our withdrawal amounts and to see what would have had happened to our bitcoin stash size if we had withdrawn at that $80k per year rate.  

You can put the numbers in at any date and see that high rates of withdrawn (such as 10% or more per year of the 200-WMA valuation) would have had been supported as long as you were valuating your holdings based on the 200-WMA and then withdrawing from your holdings based the dollar value to sustain your target income level.  

So, just plug in the numbers. for example, if you had 100 BTC in January 2021, the 200WMA would have had valued your portfolio at $780k at that time, and if you put the withdrawal rate of 10% into the simulator based on the 200WMA value, then it would have had started out withdrawing at  $78k per year, and if you had continued to withdraw at 10% of the 200 WMA valuation, between January 2021 and now you would have had withdrawn 28.42 BTC which would have had been $1.474 million dollars, which really ended up being an average of $246k per year.. but even with that withdrawal rate, you would still have 71.6 BTC right now.  

The simulator is surely not perfect since it did not account for a constant $80k per year withdrawal, but instead withdrew the quantity of dollars based on 10% of the 200WMA valuation, and since the 200-WMA continued to go up way greater than the targeted withdrawal rate of $80k per year (perhaps with a 7% per year increase in the dollar withdrawal rate), the annual withdrawal amount ended up being way higher than the targeted $80k per year rate.

Of course when we are looking at how many bitcoin that we need right now to withdraw at a certain rate, it might seem impossible to reach that amount of BTC, but surely once we reach the needed level in accordance with valuating at the 200-WMA amounts, it seems quite likely that we can withdraw at decently high rates (such as 10% or more) as long as we are valuating our stash based on the 200-WMA rather than the all over the place movements of the spot price, even though when we are withdrawing from our holdings we are receiving spot prices for the amount of BTC that we end up selling which should end up preserving our bitcoin stash since we tend to have to withdraw fewer bitcoin in order to reach our target dollar amount of withdrawal (such as $80k per year in the example).

I also think that both the back models and even the likely future projections of BTC allows a 10% per year withdrawal (based on the 200-WMA valuation), but also an ability to give yourself a 7% per year raise in the dollar withdrawal rate amount each year, so once withdrawals begin for the $80k per year guy, then the second year his withdrawal amount would be $85.6k and then the third year the withdrawal amount would be $91.6k and the fourth year the withdrawal amount would be $98k.. etc etc etc.

Of course, there can be ongoing monitoring of the value of the bitcoin at the 200-WMA valuation to make sure that the withdrawal amounts continue to be sustainable and that the withdrawal amounts are not overly depleting the BTC holdings.

[bitmover]

probably it would be good to have a "share link" that would allow the sharing of the user inputs

That would be nice. Instead of typing out their results, one can simply share the link for others to see, saving them the stress.

Added a share link button.

With the URL encoding so you can easily paste in the forum with the current inputs, similar to other tools.

Bitcoin Fuck You Status ($80,000/yr budget, 3.0% inflation)

[I_Anime]

probably it would be good to have a "share link" that would allow the sharing of the user inputs

That would be nice. Instead of typing out their results, one can simply share the link for others to see, saving them the stress.

Added a share link button.

With the URL encoding so you can easily paste in the forum with the current inputs, similar to other tools.

Bitcoin Fuck You Status ($80,000/yr budget, 3.0% inflation)

So I played with site today . I’m starting to get the hang of it  , once again this is an amazing tool. The more I navigate, more it get clearer.

So today I made use of $10k as my Desired annual nominal purchasing power target . At today’s 200WMA I will need $100k worth of BTC which is $100,000/66,143 which approximately around 1.51BTC in my portfolio at 10% withdrawal . While at 4% I will need over approximately 3.78 BTC .

So at 10 Projection horizon  with the inflation rate of 3.0% . For 10% withdrawal I will need 0.2725 BTC  and for 4% i will 0.6814 BTC as my portfolio. So I don’t know if I read that well so I’m going to drop my link here in case of  any mistakes.

my fuck you status link

[JayJuanGee]

probably it would be good to have a "share link" that would allow the sharing of the user inputs

That would be nice. Instead of typing out their results, one can simply share the link for others to see, saving them the stress.

Added a share link button.
With the URL encoding so you can easily paste in the forum with the current inputs, similar to other tools.
Bitcoin Fuck You Status ($80,000/yr budget, 3.0% inflation)

Nice!!!!  Thanks.

[edited out]

So I played with site today . I’m starting to get the hang of it  , once again this is an amazing tool. The more I navigate, more it get clearer.

So today I made use of $10k as my Desired annual nominal purchasing power target . At today’s 200WMA I will need $100k worth of BTC which is $100,000/66,143 which approximately around 1.51BTC in my portfolio at 10% withdrawal . While at 4% I will need over approximately 3.78 BTC .

So at 10 Projection horizon  with the inflation rate of 3.0% . For 10% withdrawal I will need 0.2725 BTC  and for 4% i will 0.6814 BTC as my portfolio. So I don’t know if I read that well so I’m going to drop my link here in case of  any mistakes.
my fuck you status link

You are reading that correctly, and surely it can start to make more sense if you are putting in your own numbers and then attempting to verify that the numbers are making sense for you..   For sure, I personally recommend using other tools as well such as the sustainable withdrawal tool and even the DCA calculator, even though the DCA calculator does not really project into the future (even though there are some thoughts about potentially putting future projections into it).

In any case, when you play around with the various tools you might have various targets in mind that you might shoot for and work towards achieving, yet then as you make progress towards reaching such targets, then surely you might revise your targets and/or use other tools to try to project how you might want to potentially transition from bitcoin accumulation and then into perhaps a kind of maintenance stage and then perhaps later into considering some kind of withdrawal system that you might consider to be mostly sustainable... and personally, I had considered price based sustainable withdrawal to become more applicable (and earlier on) as compared with time-based sustainable withdrawal.. even though either of them could be used for guys who might want to start to try to engage in some withdrawals from their bitcoin holdings while at the same time trying not to deplete the principle.. ..

.... but then at the same time, when I go back and forth with guys, sometimes I still find that guys have tendencies to want to self-assess their bitcoin stash size as being enough or more than enough at a time that I would consider that the stash size had not quite reached that comfort level (or a large enough quantity size).  By the way, there are also other guys who I have discussed these matters, and I tend to think that they are overly conservative in terms of their likely already reaching a status of enough or more than enough bitcoin, yet they are still reluctant to start one or the other forms of sustainable withdrawal.

...and yeah, it might even make less sense to project out 10 years in the future from the present, but then in the present, you likely already have a bitcoin portfolio size that you would be building upon that might track some of your already followed past practices, and then perhaps as you progress towards the goal, your own stack size and maybe even changes in your income and/or your standard of living (or your expected standard of living) could end up affecting how you think about your current stack size in perspective of what quantities of bitcoin you consider to be plausible within your own income and/or expenses expectations.

By the way, of course you can project further into the future beyond 10 years, and up to 70 years into the future, even though surely for many of us, it becomes more concrete to project at shorter periods into the future, even though some guys might start out with a plan of accumulating bitcoin that might be 4-10 years or more into the future, yet as they continue to stack, they might have some delays and then other guys might end up making faster progress than they expected, so there could be a variety of outcomes, including surely if guys are younger when they start to accumulate bitcoin, they may well end up with salary and/or income increases that they had not really anticipated, but then they end up being helped out by getting into a situation with more discretionary funds to invest (and/or to use for other purposes).

[Ambatman]

This is interesting
I have had idea about something similar but well writing codes isn't really my forte.
Though from meta board it seems Ai can help with that but I digress.
Haven't really checked out the tool but does it account for inflation
Or just deals with absolute number that $100Million should still be huge in 50 years.
Will check it out tomorrow and share my thoughts.

[JayJuanGee]

This is interesting
I have had idea about something similar but well writing codes isn't really my forte.

I had been working on variations of my fuck you status ideas for more than 5 years, and surely when we put together tools and tables and charts and go through various descriptions to attempt to better understand and to apply ideas to facts and to apply ideas to projections, then surely our ideas get better, yet they still may well be difficult to communicate.  Bitmover has surely been helping me with various ideas, and when we put the ideas within a tool, we are forced to bat the ideas around and even to potentially prioritize and to focus on certain angles as compared with other routes that could be taken.  Programming is not my forte either.

Though from meta board it seems Ai can help with that but I digress.

In recent times, there surely have been some guys who have been learning how to code, and getting AI to help with code, while at the same time, it also seems that guys who already had coding capabilities are able to use AI to leverage up, and most likely the fuck you status tool had been improved by AI, since nearly 3 years ago after the sustainable withdrawal tool had been implemented Bitmover and I had been running into some obstacles and even creative obstacles - which surely AI can help with some of the brainstorming of potential fixes too.. .but then it likely helps to have a coder in the mix - even though, as you suggest, it may well be possible to get rid of the coder too.. .. which may or may not end up causing some of its own issues.

I think that some of my thoughts about fuck you status and the tool have some aspects that can be tricky for some people to wrap their head around, including my ongoing use of the 200-WMA as a means to valuate BTC holdings and I ongoingly want to valuate BTC holdings using the 200-WMA, even in the sustainable withdrawal too, and it seems that instinctively guys want to battle with that way of bottom valuating BTC holdings, since we all tend to want to valuate our bitcoin based on spot prices including our knowing that any particular buys/sells are going to end up happening at spot price, not 200-WMA values, which surely the tension ongoingly affects dynamics in how we consider our BTC holdings and maybe how we might attempt to plan around managing our BTC holdings (and in the case of fuck you status, planning forward regarding our BTC holdings).  

It seems to me that even with my attempts to project forward the 200-WMA values, there is an ongoing tension in regards to a bit of a lack of mathematical formulation contained in the forward projection percentages, and so I personally think that the forward projections end up losing their ongoing incorporation of the 4-year cycles and perhaps ongoing upward pressures when they are attempted to be put into a formula, since of course, there is likely a presumption of ongoing upward pressure with ongoing diminishing returns coupled with a presumption that the returns (measured in the 200-WMA) are going to continue to go up at a certain base rate while diminishing at the same time.. Maybe the diminishing rate of the 200-WMA is no less than 3% to 4% per annum (even though spot price might bounce around all over the place within hopeful limits, too), while at the same time, knowing that we cannot really know with any high level of confidence how the average price (referring to the 200-WMA) is going to average out.

Haven't really checked out the tool but does it account for inflation
Or just deals with absolute number that $100Million should still be huge in 50 years.
Will check it out tomorrow and share my thoughts.

When I am trying to compare the future projected values of this fuck you status tool to the values in my earlier fuck you status tables, then surely I can see that changing the predicted inflation rate % within this particular fuck you status tool affects the quantity of BTC required for each of the three future projection fields, and surely the predicted inflation rate is another way of attempting to calculate the debasement of the dollar (or I suppose any other fiat that we might want to consider in terms of our valuation).

My own mental models and my prior ways of discussing bitcoin portfolio management tended to presume that once we get to a fuck you status level that we are aiming to reach, then it is quite likely that if we incorporate something like a 7% increase in our own withdrawal rate each year, then bitcoin's historical performance (and likely future performance - still to be determined) will allow us to keep up with the cost of living and presumptively BTC values will appreciate by a greater amount than the rate of our withdrawal, yet I can even see within the projections of the fuck you status table within the tool that my presumptions of at least a 7% rise in the value of the BTC for each year starts to run into tensions in the late 2040s and early 2050s so that the projection table is showing that the 200-WMA may well not be rising at least 7% per year which would likely justify lowering the annual increases in any withdrawal rate that would end up being implemented.  

I think that with any projection tool that incorporates various presumptions, we likely have to make sure that those presumptions apply when we start to act upon the presumptions, and it is one thing to still be building up our bitcoin holdings in anticipation of future projected values or even if we might go into a kind of bitcoin portfolio maintenance mode in anticipation of future projected values, and so then by the time we transition from accumulation to maintenance and then to the sustainable withdrawal, then we have to make sure that our actual values still work in light of our then current projections and/or to make adjustments based on how the actual numbers might differ from our earlier projections or how the actual numbers differ from current expectations about future values..and of course, many of us would like our future projected values to end up being better than our projections rather than adjustments having to be made in the direction that we had been overly optimistic in our earlier projections.  In other words, surely it would be better to have more value than we had expected rather than ending up having less value than we had expected to have.

One more point about any concerns that any of us might have about thresholds - like filthy rich status.  The numbers of filthy rich status are much BIGGER so there would be vast differences in the potential projections in regards to getting there.  Even if we take my plain ole projection of $2 million to reach entry level fuck you status. Prior to March 2020, I had been using $1million, with a kind of presumption that there was value in being a millionaire, and even though prior to 2020, there might have been some presumption that a $million is enough, we also likely realize that a millionaire in 2000 had way more purchasing power than a millionaire in 2020, so it is not like the concept of millionaire had been static, and even the concept of entry level fuck you status had been being widdled away little by little over the years.  Even though since March 2020, I have been proclaiming $2 million to be entry-level fuck you status, I have received a whole lot of criticism that $2 million is not even close to enough, even though I all-of-a-sudden doubled it around March 2020.  So surely, thinking about today's dollars versus future dollars is no easy task, and even if we proclaim that in 50 years $100 million will be a lot of money, it is quite likely to not even be close to filthy rich status in terms of then nominal value... and even if we choose to not go with the rule of 7s since there would be a doubling each 7 years and the nominal outcome would look something like this:

2026  $100 million
2033  $200 million
2040  $400 million
2047  $800 million
2054  $1.6 billion
2061  $3.2 billion  
2068  $6.4 billion  
2075  $12.8 billion

Maybe instead, we choose to stick with more conservative numbers and a doubling every 10 years, and the nominal outcome would look something like this:

2026  $100 million
2036  $200 million
2046  $400 million
2056  $800 million
2066  $1.6 billion
2076  $3.2 billion  

Even if we attempt to be more rosey about the matter, and yeah, we can presume some nominal resets, yet it is still difficult to escape any kind of proclamation that $100 million in today's values is not going to be a lot of money (and especially not even close to "filthy-rich" status), especially going out 50-ish years into the future.