$1.26B losses in Q3, now What could happen in Q4?

[Crypto Library]

The crypto space's losses increased by 53.9% in the third quarter, and now the fourth quarter has already begun. Do you think the fourth quarter will have any after-effects on the market from the third quarter's losses?

Or is it that the way the market is going up, even the big incidents haven't been able to spread any FUD in the market so that people panic and sell and the market goes down?

If we look at the loss amount, it is $1.26 billion dollars, which is a large amount, but even then we do not see a bad situation in the market, so will we really go bullish? And at the same time, will the market break the old patterns?
Or is the market's silence a terrifying preparation for a major crash?

[Oshosondy]

The crypto space's losses increased by 53.9% in the third quarter, and now the fourth quarter has already begun. Do you think the fourth quarter will have any after-effects on the market from the third quarter's losses?

I do not think so.

Or is it that the way the market is going up, even the big incidents haven't been able to spread any FUD in the market so that people panic and sell and the market goes down?

Yes, people that want to buy do not panic because of the incident.

If we look at the loss amount, it is $1.26 billion dollars, which is a large amount, but even then we do not see a bad situation in the market, so will we really go bullish? And at the same time, will the market break the old patterns?
Or is the market's silence a terrifying preparation for a major crash?

What old pattern are you talking about?

There were breaches also during bull run. Example is the largest hack which is the Bybit hack.

I do not know if there will be a major crash, but I know that bitcoin is not going back below $60000 even if there is some significant bearishness.

[Bd officer]

The crypto space's losses increased by 53.9% in the third quarter, and now the fourth quarter has already begun. Do you think the fourth quarter will have any after-effects on the market from the third quarter's losses?

There was no negative impact on the market when the hacking happened. So I don't think there will be any impact on Q4.

Or is it that the way the market is going up, even the big incidents haven't been able to spread any FUD in the market so that people panic and sell and the market goes down?

If we look at the loss amount, it is $1.26 billion dollars, which is a large amount, but even then we do not see a bad situation in the market, so will we really go bullish? And at the same time, will the market break the old patterns?
Or is the market's silence a terrifying preparation for a major crash?

I think investors are more aware than in the past. So even though there is negative news, it does not have any impact on the market. Another example is when the Federal Reserve increased interest rates but there was no negative impact on the market. Maybe the market went up because of ETF inflows, when there is outflow, there may be a negative impact on the market.
I believe that the market will not behave according to the old pattern. So we should not expect it to happen exactly like in the past.

[Jessie2121]

Surprisingly, we might not experience much losses this 4th quarter since it looks like the most of it was felt in the third. The hacks majorly contributed to the loss this year and September was like the worst month because a whooping $768.5m was stolen!. Although we can't tell how these hackers operate but I doubt it will be bad the way September was. Last year, Q3 was great for Bitcoin price so maybe this year it was a switch? Either way, the market is filled with different types of investors and while news of hacks often put fear in people, Bitcoin will still thrive cause it's not the first time exchanges are getting hit by hackers or they fall on hard times, take the Mt Gox incident as instance, despite the crash, Bitcoin still moved up so there's the possibility that we might close this year on a high.

[sergiorus]

That's not even that much. Bybit's hack alone in early 2025 was more than all that by almost $300 million.

A few months later we had a run to the all time highs.

[Taskford]

Recently Metamask also experience an exploit https://primexbt.com/news/metamask-pulls-ethereum-validators-after-meager-eth-theft-triggers-mass-exits/

Metamask started proactively exiting its Ethereum validators on Sept. 30 after a security researcher estimated that an attacker diverted about 0.36 ETH in block tips, a haul worth less than $1,000 at roughly $2,700 per ether. The response dwarfed the theft. Researcher Kaden estimates that roughly 17,000 validators holding about 523,000 ETH were sent toward the exits, though Metamask hasn't confirmed those figures.

They are so lucky to notice that issue so early. As result only small amount has been taken away from them.

For sure more exploit and hacking incident will came and big platforms need to prepare, then make sure their platform still safe to use.

[asriloni]

The crypto space's losses increased by 53.9% in the third quarter, and now the fourth quarter has already begun. Do you think the fourth quarter will have any after-effects on the market from the third quarter's losses?

The result from third quarter won't have any effect to the forth quarter's result. The market's cycle is always going up and down. When you saw it was always down in the last quarter, then you will see up only to happen in the next quarter. Nevertheless, it totally depends on various metrics.

Or is it that the way the market is going up, even the big incidents haven't been able to spread any FUD in the market so that people panic and sell and the market goes down?

The market is started to has its immunity to the repetitive event that caused FUD in the past. So the same trick is not gonna work twice unless there will be a very important event that can drive everything up or down.

We had some bad news related to US last weeks, but BTC is retaining its price. So it's starting to have its resistance.

If we look at the loss amount, it is $1.26 billion dollars, which is a large amount, but even then we do not see a bad situation in the market, so will we really go bullish? And at the same time, will the market break the old patterns?
Or is the market's silence a terrifying preparation for a major crash?

Bitcoin is so rarely got impact from the hack happened to the alts web3 apps because most of assets were hacked was not bitcoin. So i think i see no relevantcy between alts hack and btc bear or bull trend here.

[Hatchy]

Or is the market's silence a terrifying preparation for a major crash?

If we were going to see any major impact on the market, then during the Coldcard exploit, there should have been a major dump. Each of those exploits could have caused a significant shift in the market, but nothing like that happened, and we are already in Q4.

I'm not really surprised, though, because we saw something similar during the major Iran-US war. Price was still very hesitant during that period. Even major events had little to no effect on the market. So, my thoughts are that the market is changing as it normally does, but this time it seems to be developing a much tougher skin. We should also remember that every major crash or pump is mainly driven by the actions of traders and investors. Maybe people are still confident in the market and are not making any rushed decisions that could trigger a major move.

[suzanne5223]

The crypto space's losses increased by 53.9% in the third quarter, and now the fourth quarter has already begun. Do you think the fourth quarter will have any after-effects on the market from the third quarter's losses?

First, the crypto space never lost.
It's the platform that experience the incident that lost the 53.9% in the Q3 but that doesn't there will an after effect in this Q4 market due to the last correction that will happen before the next year bull.

Or is it that the way the market is going up, even the big incidents haven't been able to spread any FUD in the market so that people panic and sell and the market goes down?

It's not that the incident didn't send fud, but such fud is not enough to lead to huge panic sell in the market because crypto have already gained mainstream attention, and most investors don't want to miss the opportunity they currently have.

Or is the market's silence a terrifying preparation for a major crash?

No,it's not silently preparing for major crash.

[Frankolala]

Look at bitcoin price at $85k and it shows that the huge loss in the market didn't affect the market at all because more investors are coming on board and some of the old ones are still buying. Losses in the market wouldn't have any impact on bitcoin price based on the level that bitcoin have reached because institutions are now part of it. Institutions don't panic and sell.

Definitely, we will go bullish even though, it's not going to hit $100k before December which might be the opposite. In the last circle, the bottom line price showed up in November, I don't think that will repeat itself again in this circle. However, the price might still dip below $80k, if it doesn't move uptrend. Bitcoin price can only be affected in a short-term.

[Mrbluntzy]

Or is it that the way the market is going up, even the big incidents haven't been able to spread any FUD in the market so that people panic and sell and the market goes down?

Haven't we already pass that stage? If there was any FUD spread in course of these hacks, the shake off has already happened and the market has already eaten up the volume that the weak hands have sold. I doubt there's going to be any after effect, the price of Bitcoin will not still go below the supposed all time low of this bear season. If the market will dump again to the previous low, it might be caused by something else but not these hacks again.

[tiCeR]

The crypto space's losses increased by 53.9% in the third quarter, and now the fourth quarter has already begun. Do you think the fourth quarter will have any after-effects on the market from the third quarter's losses?

Or is it that the way the market is going up, even the big incidents haven't been able to spread any FUD in the market so that people panic and sell and the market goes down?

If we look at the loss amount, it is $1.26 billion dollars, which is a large amount, but even then we do not see a bad situation in the market, so will we really go bullish? And at the same time, will the market break the old patterns?
Or is the market's silence a terrifying preparation for a major crash?

You could look at this from a different angle.

In plain numbers, these losses won't have a significant impact on the market as a whole. It is all still relatively small compared to the total crypto market cap.

If we assume that $1.26 billion get dumped, the effect should be very small, absorption of those coins be quick and prices probably don't really move.

But what about the message that every single successful hack sends to the broader public? Those who have been full of skepticism are less likely to change their mind about a technology that seems to be getting hacked frequently. I know it is not the "technology" and banks get hacked too, but I am talking about those who have a blurry picture of crypto and overevaluate negative news while denying to go down the rabbit hole at least a little bit. These news are "evidence" enough for them to stay away. When banks get hacked, it usually isn't made public because the affected bank prefers to compensate for the financial being done instead of suffering from reputational damage when those incidents are made public.

It doesn't work the same way for those crypto exchange hacks because people quickly notice large movements on the blockchain.

[Zaguru12]

If we look at the loss amount, it is $1.26 billion dollars, which is a large amount, but even then we do not see a bad situation in the market, so will we really go bullish? And at the same time, will the market break the old patterns?
Or is the market's silence a terrifying preparation for a major crash?

The question why is there no major crash after this in fact this same quarter has been the best for the past one year now with a bitcoin price increase of over 40% in last quarter alone. The reason why there is no significant drop of price even with crisis like this can be said to be based on two factors

1. The market is used to all this kind of news and investors are no longer panic when situations like arises again, for example the totality of this losses is not even more than the $1.5B loss in bybit hack last year and the market still didn’t make any major reaction.

2. Second reason could be that because the incidents do not happen at once at least it had a day interval for someone incident and week for major ones which might have actually contributed to less panic that could have affected the market

[Ndabagi01]

Wasn’t expecting an increase in loss this Q3 because of how the market performed in Q3, making everyone seeing the market recovering from the bearish trend and headed towards a bullish position. With the condition of the market now, I see it more of consolidating than heading towards a bullish trend, rather it might even face some bearish trend again. The bulls has not yet taken over the trend of the market, so I’m not expecting any positive trend in the market now until the end of the year.

[Crypto Library]

What old pattern are you talking about?

The old pattern I am talking about is it is the bearish season and the bear bottom price, if we just talk about the others bear  bottom price of every bear season then we find every bear bottom price above the -76% dump now if we talk about this 2026 this time we are seeing the bear bottom price at 58k by -53% dump till now and that's make me feel strange.

And here I basically mean that if Bitcoin keeps the bear bottom price at 58k and starts to go bullish market, then hasn't the old pattern kind of changed? 

[Livingleged]

I don’t want to believe that the $1.26b that was loss in Q3 should mean that a major crash should follow. loses from hack and exploits are serious, but I think they are not the same thing as investors selling bitcoin or even other assets.also a large amount lost through an exploit doesn’t automatically create the  kind of pressure that causes a market wide crash.

I also don’t want to believe that the market is silent because a crash is coming. Price movements alone isn’t enough to tell us that. So Q4 could be bullish, bearish or simply volatile. instead of trying to predict a crash from Q3 losses, I think it make more sense just take note of things like leverage, trading volume ETF flows, liquidity and actual selling pressure. Hence there is no enough evidence from the $1.2b losses figure to conclude that a major crash is coming IMO

[Btcdeybodi]

Or is it that the way the market is going up, even the big incidents haven't been able to spread any FUD in the market so that people panic and sell and the market goes down?

Haven't we already pass that stage? If there was any FUD spread in course of these hacks, the shake off has already happened and the market has already eaten up the volume that the weak hands have sold. I doubt there's going to be any after effect, the price of Bitcoin will not still go below the supposed all time low of this bear season. If the market will dump again to the previous low, it might be caused by something else but not these hacks again.

You're right, we have crossed that stage where the market will react negatively and cause any FUD. Investors are no longer bothered about whether there's any negative news because if we look at recent months, there hasn't be so much liquidation from big investors. The market holds strong support so I don't think we will see another bottom that will fall below the previous bottom. The bear season is not intense like it was during the beginning when the market was continuously reacting negatively. The market has been positive at least in the past one month which mean that the bear season could be heading towards the end since there is no much selling pressure that would have caused the price to start another bearish movement.

[DiMarxist]

If we are sincere with ourselves we will not be surprise that, there was a lose in the third Quarter of the year. Because, the price of Bitcoin has been down since the start of the year at a point there were alot of panic because the price dropped almost below $50k which caused alot of panic and some weak hands has to sell off part of their holding. I believe that this is the basis upon which we are seeing this loss in the third quarter.

But going forward we are beginning to see some positives because, in this fourth quarter I don't expect that there is going to be loss the reason is that more people are gradually coming back to the market as a result of the appriciation in the price that we are seeing.