The reason why I don't have doubt saying that $250k could be possible is because of the shift in the 4 years cycle, based on what happened in this just concluded cycle, Bitcoin already attained a new all time high even before the halving and so I was thinking that if proce could reach $190k or $200k before the halving, then it's possible it could get to $250k the year after. I also agree with what you said, $200k is a more realistic price but retail and institutional demand could still be aggressive and cause price to explode beyond expectations.
I am not entirely confirm but if Bitcoin price is $150K or $190K by 2027 and the price remains stable then it is not at all unusual for Bitcoin price to reach $250K after halving but Bitcoin price increase is completely dependent on investor demand, the more people and businessmen invest the more confident they will hold Bitcoin for a long time and as a result the price will continue to increase. I expect Bitcoin price to reach an all time high (ATH) before halving.
I'm not saying Bitcoin won't hit $250k or $300k , or that it can't make a new ATH before halving. But tbh , going from $150k to $190k and then $250k sounds easy when we're only talking numbers. In reality, it ain't that simple.
Bitcoin doesn't move in a straight line, and it's no longer a small asset with a marketcap of just a few billion that can run 100-200% in a short period . Bitcoin has matured , and its market cap is now close to $2T.
People should change their mindset and stop obsessing over past cycle data and assuming the next one will play out the same way . I mean, look at current market conditions and set more realistic expectation , not just lean on what Bitcoin pulled off before.