Price prediction: BTC craters the day after US elections

[legiteum]

Hey folks. I usually don't do BTC price predictions because every one of them are pure guesses since Bitcoin has no fundamentals than can be objectively predicted.

But what the heck, I'll do it anyhow. Let's have a little fun.

In the recent period before the upcoming US elections, BTC has pumped up significantly--about 25%.

Remember that today, the crypto industry is the largest government lobby in the USA, surpassing Big Oil, Big Pharmaceutical, Big Banking, and all of the rest. It's likely that they will spend over $1 billion on this election alone.

It's also worth thinking about the life of a Bitcoin whale. Imagine you are sitting on, say, $20 billion in BTC. In this scenario, spending $100 million per year on "projects" that helped you pump your bags would be peanuts, and in the crypto universe, spending money like this is totally legal (AAPL couldn't run a clandestine influence operation to get their stock price up for instance, that would be a violation of various securities laws).

The other thing you can do as a Bitcoin whale is... manipulate the price of Bitcoin (particularly if you get together with your friends, say Michael Saylor and Elon Musk for instance).

Now imagine you desperately want Trump and his party to win, and you know that Bitcoin actually tanked under Trump (after it going up 500% under the previous president, who was--gasp!--a Democrat). What do you do? Throw the crypto bros a bone and pump the price of BTC to make them feel good about voting for the political party that started that war in Iran and screwed up the economy with tariffs. Who cares about all of that if the price of BTC is going up and their bags look a little fatter now (although still not as fat as they were before Trump).

If this is indeed what is going on, what we can expect to happen after 11/3 is... a crash. All of the pumping that the Whales have been doing now will be dumped and the price will crash. This will happen regardless of who wins. (If you are a BTC Whale, you want more than anything to get out of that holding since your money would be far better off being in AI for the long term--but you can't simply dump it all at once because you would crash the market of your own holdings).

Anyhow, something to think about. We'll know in a few weeks if this has any merit...

[adultcrypto]

The first part of your post about bitcoin price prediction after the election makes this topic idea for the speculation board and not bitcoin discussion board.

In my opinion, the election will just add some form of volatility to the market but the resultant effect will be insignificant.  The price is already poised to go upward further judging by how unwilling the market have been to fall below $80,000 so any strong fundamental news such as election victory for the Republican party might male price test $90,000 but whether such moves will be sustained is what I doubt.  This is why I have the opinion that the election will have little to no net effect on the price of bitcoin.

[legiteum]

In my opinion, the election will just add some form of volatility to the market but the resultant effect will be insignificant.  The price is already poised to go upward further judging by how unwilling the market have been to fall below $80,000 so any strong fundamental news such as election victory for the Republican party might male price test $90,000 but whether such moves will be sustained is what I doubt.  This is why I have the opinion that the election will have little to no net effect on the price of bitcoin.

I didn't mean for this to be a discussion about speculation. As I said, nobody can truly predict the price of BTC and to do so is absolute folly.

But what if it won't fall below $80k because the whales are injecting money into the market the minute it starts falling below that level? If anything, the market stability here would be an indicator of whale influence since it's hovering around a specific number.

The discussion, on the other hand, is what are the forces that can control the market for BTC and why. I think that's a much more interesting topic.

[Die_empty]

The other thing you can do as a Bitcoin whale is... manipulate the price of Bitcoin (particularly if you get together with your friends, say Michael Saylor and Elon Musk for instance).

Now imagine you desperately want Trump and his party to win, and you know that Bitcoin actually tanked under Trump (after it going up 500% under the previous president, who was--gasp!--a Democrat). What do you do? Throw the crypto bros a bone and pump the price of BTC to make them feel good about voting for the political party that started that war in Iran and screwed up the economy with tariffs. Who cares about all of that if the price of BTC is going up and their bags look a little fatter now (although still not as fat as they were before Trump).

If this is indeed what is going on, what we can expect to happen after 11/3 is... a crash. All of the pumping that the Whales have been doing now will be dumped and the price will crash. This will happen regardless of who wins. (If you are a BTC Whale, you want more than anything to get out of that holding since your money would be far better off being in AI for the long term--but you can't simply dump it all at once because you would crash the market of your own holdings).

Anyhow, something to think about. We'll know in a few weeks if this has any merit...

Most Americans are not interested in crypto policies. There are other important issues that will determine the outcome of the midterm elections. I don't think the population of crypto users would have a significant effect on the elections when compared to other pressing issues like inflation, external wars, economic policies, and public debt.

Assuming that manipulating the Bitcoin market would give Republicans victory is thinking too much. Other issues would be the main determinants of the outcome of the elections. The rise in the price of Bitcoin is not related to the upcoming elections.

You keep repeating that under Joe Biden Bitcoin went up by 500%. Maybe the price would have increased by 1000% if not for his anti-crypto policies.

[Ambatman]

If I'm not mistaken you talking about the election on November 3rd this year
Well it's normal there would be volatility that day and the days after but it wouldn't mean much if one is holding and not trading liquidity.
Bitcoin is in the light
That many perception of its price is sometimes screwed towards a political party.

[legiteum]

Most Americans are not interested in crypto policies. There are other important issues that will determine the outcome of the midterm elections. I don't think the population of crypto users would have a significant effect on the elections when compared to other pressing issues like inflation, external wars, economic policies, and public debt.

Crypto is, by far, the #1 lobby in the USA and is poised to dump $500,000,000 into our elections this cycle. It's not about people, it's about money.

You keep repeating that under Joe Biden Bitcoin went up by 500%. Maybe the price would have increased by 1000% if not for his anti-crypto policies.

It fell in half after Trump got elected. Biden wasn't perfect for crypto, but a stable government is all Bitcoin needs and Biden gave it that. Republicans want radical change and chaos, and look what happens.

It's also sort of crazy that Bitcoin, of all things, is now begging for favors from the government in order to go up in price...   

[pooya87]

The only way I could see bitcoin market being affected by something as irrelevant as US midterm sham is if a large campaign of FUD starts in the community advertising it enough to create panic moves (buy or sell) and one topic ain't gonna cut it

You are still trying to create a link between bitcoin price and which puppet is in office too which is still weird! It never mattered and it doesn't matter now either. Most people forgot about the pedophile POTUS even mentioning bitcoin in his campaign shortly after that sham was over; and then bitcoin market went back to normal and continued rising just like before.

Not to mention that the biggest concern of Americans these days is not crypto or even which of the corrupt members of the Epstein Class wins; Their biggest concern is the fact that they have to choose between groceries and gas all because of the war the pedophile POTUS started with Iran at the order of the Zionists and got his ass handed to him with most of USCENTCOM wiped out.

[tbct_mt2]

Hey folks. I usually don't do BTC price predictions because every one of them are pure guesses since Bitcoin has no fundamentals than can be objectively predicted.

But what the heck, I'll do it anyhow. Let's have a little fun.

In the recent period before the upcoming US elections, BTC has pumped up significantly--about 25%.

I am not interested in it, just let Bitcoin be itself and does its own growth. The US elections or other elections in any other countries won't constrain Bitcoin growth too much in long term.

If you're interested in, you can check history of US election dates.
https://www.thegreenpapers.com/Hx/PresidentialElectionEvents.phtml

Then check prices of Bitcoin before and after past election dates.
https://charts.bitbo.io/price-current-date/

Lastly, make your own price change percentage before and after election dates. I am really not interested in doing such data collection and calculations because only this yearly candle chart is strongly convincing with me.
https://charts.bitbo.io/yearly-candles/

[oll]

Everyone was expecting Trump to become the first crypto president, and it was precisely because of these expectations that the Bitcoin price surpassed 126,000. It's natural that Bitcoin depends not only on crypto news but also on news about other assets. For example, if the yield on US securities falls, Bitcoin rises due to a liquidity flow.
Also, if gold becomes expensive, we can expect major players to lock in their positions and switch to Bitcoin. And of course, if fiat currency experiences problems, some market participants hide their assets in Bitcoin. The world doesn't revolve around the American president; even Trump has eventually shown that he's a meme, not a president, whose words have lost their weight. Bitcoin now reacts to global processes, like any asset, and not just to American politics.

[BlackBoss_]

Everyone was expecting Trump to become the first crypto president, and it was precisely because of these expectations that the Bitcoin price surpassed 126,000. It's natural that Bitcoin depends not only on crypto news but also on news about other assets. For example, if the yield on US securities falls, Bitcoin rises due to a liquidity flow.

10 or 11 years ago, before Trump run a first President election propaganda, he was against Bitcoin. He only changed his stance, or only public statement about Bitcoin in his 2023 - 2024 President Election propaganda and after returning to the White House. His change was likely from impressive growth of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency industry and market, so that he felt like he would receive massive votes if he publicly said like a Bitcoin supporter, a cryptocurrency enthusiast.

Trump calls Bitcoin a scam against dollar that needs to be ‘very high regulated’.

[Die_empty]

Everyone was expecting Trump to become the first crypto president, and it was precisely because of these expectations that the Bitcoin price surpassed 126,000. It's natural that Bitcoin depends not only on crypto news but also on news about other assets. For example, if the yield on US securities falls, Bitcoin rises due to a liquidity flow.

10 or 11 years ago, before Trump run a first President election propaganda, he was against Bitcoin. He only changed his stance, or only public statement about Bitcoin in his 2023 - 2024 President Election propaganda and after returning to the White House. His change was likely from impressive growth of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency industry and market, so that he felt like he would receive massive votes if he publicly said like a Bitcoin supporter, a cryptocurrency enthusiast.

Trump calls Bitcoin a scam against dollar that needs to be ‘very high regulated’.

He changed his stance not just for votes, but for donations from pro-crypto groups. MAGA group got about $42 million in donations from Super PAC Donations. Major crypto groups raised about $18 million for Trump's inaugural committee. It is clear that Trump has no genuine interest in the promotion of Bitcoin. He is simply giving the industry a business look. Trump and Melania Memecoins are examples that it is all about the money.

[BlackHatCoiner]

Remember that today, the crypto industry is the largest government lobby in the USA, surpassing Big Oil, Big Pharmaceutical, Big Banking, and all of the rest.

Big Pharma and Big Banking have engaged into lobbying the government significantly times more than the crypto industry. It's not even debatable. $50 billion+ alone for the current administration: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-big-us-banks-boost-110919994.html.

The crypto industry hasn't lobbied even 1% of the amount banks have lobbied. Maybe it is time for you to wake up and realize that your real government is the banking cartel of the Federal Reserve!

[legiteum]

Remember that today, the crypto industry is the largest government lobby in the USA, surpassing Big Oil, Big Pharmaceutical, Big Banking, and all of the rest.

Big Pharma and Big Banking have engaged into lobbying the government significantly times more than the crypto industry. It's not even debatable. $50 billion+ alone for the current administration: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-big-us-banks-boost-110919994.html.

The crypto industry hasn't lobbied even 1% of the amount banks have lobbied. Maybe it is time for you to wake up and realize that your real government is the banking cartel of the Federal Reserve!

LOL, $50B. That doesn't even make sense .

It's actually $86m according to the linked story, which is probably about right. That's a fraction of what the crypto industry is spending this cycle.

The fact is that the crypto industry is a gigantic American... industry. Bitcoin might have been "anti-establishment" when it was invented, but now it's just another thing shilled by Corporate America...

[BlackHatCoiner]

It's actually $86m according to the linked story, which is probably about right. That's a fraction of what the crypto industry is spending this cycle.

Yes sorry, according to the article, it's $86 million. There are definitely money moved that are not recorded in these statistics, but anyway, still according to the article the crypto industry was about $40 million.

[eternalgloom]

Listening to this analysis of yours, it seems you've simply spun fairy tale of your own making. Where Big Whales have nothing better to do but act as grand conspiracy tableau!

You claim that Bitcoin lacks any fundamental basis. That it is supposedly driven entirely by speculation. Are you suggesting then, that current American politic and million of dollar in corporate lobbying operate simply by magic?

What you are saying that player like Musk or Saylor are manipulating market to artificially pump up Bitcoins price to get Trump and some other party to win is completely ridiculous. Have you forgotten that in arena of politic other sectors are no less significant than crypto? If Bitcoin is largest political lobby in America today then it is not from any place of blind passion. Rather it comes from struggle to survive and protect one's legal and economic right.