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October 14, 2026, 07:42:47 PM Last edit: October 14, 2026, 09:07:07 PM by JaanusRaim |
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I propose following two hypotheses for the first four BTC halving cycles.
Hypothesis no 1. The BTC price growth rate has halved in log scale with every halving cycle (four years) during the BTC first four halving cycles. Hypothesis no 2. The BTC potential profitability (the difference between the actual BTC price and the potential BTC price) has halved in log scale with every halving cycle (four years) during the BTC first four halving cycles.
The starting price $0.001, differences from the potential BTC price $100000:$0.001 = 100 000 000x The BTC price growth in accordance with the hypotheses: The first halving (November 28, 2012) the cumulative price growth 10000x, the price level $10, differences from the potential BTC price $100000:$10 = 10 000x The second halving (July 9, 2016) the cumulative price growth 10000x + 100x, the price level $1000, differences from the potential BTC price $100000:$1000 = 100x The third halving (May 11, 2020) the cumulative price growth 10000x + 100x + 10x, the price level $10000, differences from the potential BTC price $100000:$10000 = 10x The fourth halving (April 19, 2024) the cumulative price growth 10000x + 100x + 10 + 3.16x, the price level $31600, differences from the potential BTC price $100000:$316000 = 3.16x
The actual price growth: The first halving (November 28, 2012) the cumulative price growth 12 400x, the price level $12.4, differences from the potential BTC price $100000:$12.4 = 8065x The second halving (July 9, 2016) the cumulative price growth 651 800x, the price level $651.8, differences from the potential BTC price $100000:$651.8 = 153x The third halving (May 11, 2020) the cumulative price growth 8 579 800x, the price level $8579.8, differences from the potential BTC price $100000:$8579.8 = 11.66x The fourth halving (April 19, 2024) the cumulative price growth 63 799 100x, the price level $63799.1, differences from the potential BTC price $100000:$63799.1 = 1.57x
The results do not chance dramatically if we use halving years average prices instead of daily prices: 2012: $8.36 2016: $568.49 2020: $11116.38 2024: $65964.11
The starting price ($0.001) comes from the Matti Malmi first Bitcoin trade. The potential BTC price, the "attractor" ($100 000) comes from the Rick Valkfinge article published 2013 as the low tier Bitcoin long-run price projection. At the moment $100 000 is the ATH Bitcoin price as well.
As we can see the hypotheses seem the work better for the first three halvings (for the first 12 Bitcoin years, the period 2009-2020). They do not present so well when we insert the fourth halving period into the sample.
The first, second, and third halving cycles have each one indeed reduced BTC's potential profitability by approximately half in log scale. The fourth halving cycle has reduced BTC's potential profitability by approximately three-quarters in log scale.
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