When will the lowest price of the current cycle fall below the previous cycle ?

This hasn't happened before, but sooner or later, the lowest Bitcoin price of the current halving cycle must fall below the lowest price of the previous cycle.
When do you think this will happen first time?

Highest Lowest
I halving 26.15 2.24
II halving 1132 165
III halving 19345 3232
IV halving 67549 15760
V halving 124748

We have touch $57k isn't? It's around June 30 to July 1 and there are school of thoughts that goes around here and saying that it could be our bottom already. Unless we have another leg down. But if you look at the movement, it seems that the market is somewhat stable and couldn't go down hard below $60k.

So for now, we can say that it's the lowest low for this cycle already. And if we look at the cycle, it could have been happen this month. But the price continue to hold that $80k and so it's very hard to see it goes down at the end of this year.

And if we would go by your premises, $57k is < than IV halving price which is 67549.

I don't know if I understood you correctly, but why do you think the lowest price for Bitcoin in the current cycle is lower than the lowest price in the previous cycle? That’s not a rule!

From my point of view, quite the opposite. Historically and economically, this has never happened in any previous Bitcoin cycle, as the "bottom" always rises from cycle to cycle with increased adoption and long-term growth of the network.

According to you, the price of Bitcoin should fall below $15k in this cycle. If it does, then history will be changed. Since there is no record of such a thing happening in history, I do not expect it to happen. Although it is not possible to say anything for sure in the case of Bitcoin, but I do not think that it will ever happen in the future.

You mentioned the list of Bitcoin's bottom and highest prices in each cycle and you can see that in each cycle, the bottom price and the highest price of Bitcoin are gradually rising upwards.

Quote from: JaanusRaim on Today at 12:08:25 AM

This hasn't happened before,

Yes it has.

Quote from: JaanusRaim on Today at 12:08:25 AM

I think you are looking at wrong level. Previous cycle low is too far, the one that market really test is the previous top. I remember last 2022 I was very confident that $20,000 is the bottom because it was the 2017 top, but still it wick below it and reach $15k. So for me the $57k this year is already that kind of break below $69k. If halving is the basis of every cycle, we still have more than a year for next halving.

I don't think that I understand your question or what you're trying to say because from the history of bitcoin, the price increases overtime making it impossible for the price of bitcoin in the current circle to fall below the previous circle low price. Only if you are talking about ATH prices from the price data you gave. I don't think that was the price of bitcoin during the previous halving, it's for the previous ATH and the current one which is $126k and not $124k.

I am not sure what will happen in a year but as far as I understand we already saw the lowest Bitcoin value of this cycle and I don't think we will see another huge dip for Bitcoin now.

Those who accumulated Bitcoin when it was below $60k after that huge dip are the ones who'll make most profit in this cycle.

I don't think we will see another dip that will take Bitcoin's value below $50k, those who missed last opportunity want something like that but unfortunately they missed that chance.

Quote from: OgNasty on Today at 08:02:58 AM

Quote from: JaanusRaim on Today at 12:08:25 AM

This hasn't happened before,

Yes it has.

Really? I have never seen such information on the Bitcoin price history, even as I still did some search now, I could not find a record that says Bitcoin has ever fallen lower than its low of the previous bear season.

This record above for example, if it's accurate, then I don't think that price has ever gone lower than a previous bear cycle low for all the major bear season in history. I stand to be corrected, sir.

Everything has to happen once, and if it has not, it has a chance, Bitcoin no exception?

Most unrealistic realistic scenario? Dollar value becomes so high that 15k is actually worth a lot more than it did in 2022. Hey, stranger things have happened.

You may try to give it any definition or whatever you may call it, but just know that the market will remain ever volatile as before, and this will allow us to buy whenever the season is more favorable to accumulating bitcoin than selling it. This is why many investors focus more on this season, at which they find the market most suitable for their investment, before they can set any for buying.

the op is kind of trolling.

his or her question is when does BTC really truly collapse.

If BTC dropped to 15k this year it would pretty much be a painful crushing fall for all that are not betting crazy ass

shorts.

Now do I think BTC could have its worst fall from grace. Sure it could. But it is small and not a lot of coin or

marketcap. well under 2 trillion this makes it easy for a government to prop it up.

How could it really dump first by by Trump and a ton of wild liberals get in to the USa gov. doing a full out attack on the

coin. It will dump dump dump.

So Trump is out in Jan 2029 the new prez is in. that could be the first real test for BTC.

Should be fun to watch. Good luck to us all.

Quote from: Bd officer on Today at 07:51:31 AM

According to you, the price of Bitcoin should fall below $15k in this cycle.

I don't think we can ever see the price of Bitcoin fall to that level, even $25K-$40K, It feels unrealistic by the time we get to our new all-time high. Individually, it would be great to witness Bitcoin at that level because of personal interest in buying more, on the other hand, those who are already expecting to share profits will not be happy about the fall. Bitcoin at $15K, we might never see, we take advantage of the price we have now.

That situation might occur when more people start to lose faith in Bitcoin. With the current situation, of course, you wouldn't see it. However, adoption continues to increase and the scarcity of Bitcoin makes its value keep rising every cycle. So our thinking definitely leads to the price being higher than the lowest price in the previous cycle.

Quote from: JaanusRaim on Today at 12:08:25 AM

When will the lowest BTC price of the current cycle fall below the lowest BTC price of the previous cycle ?

In terms of speculation for a cyclical decline in Bitcoin prices below the lowest price of the previous cycle in Bitcoin's recorded history, there is no historical cyclical dynamic for market changes and price declines. It could be said that there is a definite date or absolute guarantee in such situations.

The therapy where we can see the lowest point of the halving happening again was recorded as occurring in November at the end of the year, if it was speculated a year and a half before the halving occurred, It can be speculated that after the lowest cycle occurs, the market will slowly change and likewise the price of Bitcoin will slowly rise until a new ATH is created.

Therapy there is an interesting speculation that I have seen, where some Bitcoin analysis institutions they speculate where the current cycle low point in 2026 will be vulnerable in the range of $50k - $58k, now whether the cycle low has occurred or not.
Notes; This speculation is a conservative scenario, depending on global macroeconomics, the opposite could happen.

The next halving is still quite a while away. So, I think the previous halving cycle will experience another correction, possibly falling below $50,000.

The decline that occurred when BTC reached its all time high was down to $57,000. Bitcoin price declines are often triggered by bad news like hacks and so on, But Bitcoin has gone through many sharp downward cycles and recovered.

I believe that as long term Holders, Sharp downward cycles don't bother us and can even take the option to buy more aggressively when the market price is low.

"But sooner or later the lowest Bitcoin price of the current halving cycle must fall below the lowest price of the previous cycle.."

Why are you so confident that the lowest price of the current halving is definitely going to fall below the lowest price of the last cycle? That's almost impossible to happen and I'll tell you why; the amount of liquidity in the market is higher than what we used to see in the previous cycle. Institutions are still investing in Bitcoin and there's ETFs.

Bitcoin will likely fall below $70k again before the next bull run but I doubt we'd ever see it go below $60k again in this cycle.

Quote from: JaanusRaim on Today at 12:08:25 AM

This hasn't happened before, but sooner or later, the lowest Bitcoin price of the current halving cycle must fall below the lowest price of the previous cycle.

We can speculate but bitcoin is unpredictable. The past cycles have been amazing and the lowest might be lower than the past ATH but it won't be that far from recovering and passing on those prices.

The lowest price we've seen was below $60k for this year and that was the price near the ATH on 2021. I think we're done for looking the lowest for this bear market.

Quote from: JaanusRaim on Today at 12:08:25 AM

Highest Lowest
V halving 124748

The highest on the last cycle was $126,000 and if you're going to look for the lowest, when this year is done I guess it's safe to say that it's $57,000 - $58,000.

The market can show significant figures when it falls, but a drop as steep as the ones I've seen which many might say is $15,000 or something like that is possible, but I see it as highly unlikely. The odds aren't in my favor.

There's more investment in BTC, ETFs have greatly helped the price rise, institutions believe in BTC and continue buying, and it's thought that by December it could surpass $100,000 again. So, thinking about such a steep drop is unlikely.