Most Americans oppose betting on elections, government events, Reuters/Ipsos pol

[Oshosondy]

The title of the topic in full: Most Americans oppose betting on elections, government events, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds

I do not know if this is initiated not to allow prediction market not to allow United States presidential election bet. 4506 people in the United States voted. The vote is not in favour of gamblers.



There are also gambling sites that are not predication markets that allow bets on United States presidential election.

https://www.reuters.com/world/most-americans-oppose-betting-elections-government-events-reutersipsos-poll-2026-10-12/

Do you think that survey is accurate?

I do not think this kind of service is necessary. I do not see a way betting on United States presidential election can lead to manipulations.

[Questat]

This explains the decline in betting activity in America, according to Gallup's latest survey, only 45% of American adults reported gambling in the past year, compared to 64% in 2016.

Of course you cannot expect the majority to favor gambling or even gamble because this data already shows that fewer Americans are participating.
And since this is election betting, they would be even less likely to support it as it could undermine the integrity of the election.

[FinneysTrueVision]

The concerns about national security and election integrity are overblown in my opinion. Even those that are against prediction markets are paying close attention to their predicted outcomes whenever there is an important election coming up. These markets offer valid forms of recreation and provide valuable information to the public. Obviously they should try to fight against any attempts at manipulation and anybody in a government position should not be allowed to use them.

[DanWalker]

I have some disagreements regarding this Reuters survey.

They might be seeking to curb the tendency to bet on prediction market or elections by invoking  specter of public morality. This actually seems a bit one sided to me. I don’t think that placing bet on US presidential election or government related event is any major wrongdoing. And I also do not believe that it is possible to easily carry out any major manipulation or fraud through this.

Alongside traditional gambling site, these prediction market often help in providing highly accurate forecast. Which is more realistic than even ordinary poll or media propaganda.

[ZeroVinsonN]

It probably won't lead to manipulation but people are very easily mislead these days, especially the weak minded folks, the moment one candidate that having more people betting for them to win you will find that most who were apathetic to the election will end up voting for whoever was is leading in the bets and something like that can very easily be manipulated with mass false bets being placed on one candidate over the other.
Besides all that, Americans have preached rights to the point where y'all are allowed to do some really stupid things, where's the smartness in betting on your own presidential election, it shows how much of a joke the election is to most of y'all.

[Iranus]

Regardless of how much they might claim that peoples are against it, I am sure this is simply a mindset rooted in fear of new trends.

I honestly fail to see how democracy could be harmed if people leveraging their interest in democratic process & election, participate in prediction market as a form of entertainment or investment!

I would go so far as to say that their tendency to create such obstacle only gives rise to further suspicion.

They might be seeking to control market for truthful information or accurate prediction for some specific interest of their own.

[RGBTC]

I do not think this kind of service is necessary. I do not see a way betting on United States presidential election can lead to manipulations.

I have not yet observed the potential for manipulation in betting markets (aside from activities unrelated to gambling, such as money laundering), but I can certainly see it occurring in prediction markets, which are inherently vulnerable to insider trading.

Based on trends seen in prediction markets during previous elections, it is suspected that "whale" bettors have paid individuals to obtain valuable, non-public information. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/french-whale-made-over-80-million-on-polymarket-betting-on-trump-election-win-60-minutes/

[Die_empty]

Do you think that survey is accurate?

I do not think this kind of service is necessary. I do not see a way betting on United States presidential election can lead to manipulations.

We would not know if the survey is reliable and valid unless we know the research procedures. But the article shows that the opposition to betting on elections, military actions, and other sensitive issues in prediction markets enjoys bipartisan support (69% of Democrats ​and 61% of Republicans).

I do not think this kind of service is necessary. I do not see a way betting on United States presidential election can lead to manipulations.

It can influence public opinion and affect voting decisions. Undecided voters can decide to vote based on polls from these prediction markets. People might vote out of symapthy or popular opinion, and this poll could facilitate it. Polymarket spokesman claimed that the reason for the raid on its chief executive, Shayne Coplan house was because of obvious political retribution by the Joe Biden administration. It was alleged that Polymarket polls contributed to the victory of Donald Trump. I support the restriction of offering contracts on political and other sensitive issues. Sports and casino games are the best form of gambling.

[yahoo62278]

I am 1 who feels like all politicians are crooked and take bribes. If they had to show a money trail like the rest of Americans, most of them would likely be in prison for money laundering or something like that.

Getting on topic, allowing the bettors (yes bettors) to bet on elections could result in the wrong politician getting voted into office just because x number of people decided they would rather try to win a big bet they placed vs deciding who is the best crooked politician to run the country. Just doesn't make sense to allow bets on things of this importance IMO.

[Filicius]

I was surprised to see that according to most comments it seems that many users have a hard time seeing the connection between manipulation and predictive markets about elections, except for the last two posts.

It's not because of fear of novelty, it's because the more economic interests there are in a certain topic, the more likely it is that someone will want to take advantage and cheat. ln traditional gambling the games are neutral, whether it comes out black or white, your last spin gives you a big win, or your plane doesn't crash early, the result doesn't have a real-world effect beyond whether you win or lose some money. But in elections we are playing the future of democracy or a dictatorship, peace or war, supply or hunger, in short, life or death. It is not a matter to give an opinion lightly.

[Free Market Capitalist]

https://www.reuters.com/world/most-americans-oppose-betting-elections-government-events-reutersipsos-poll-2026-10-12/

Do you think that survey is accurate?

I don't think so. All polls have some degree of bias, and this one won't be any different. Then you see how prediction sites keep growing in revenue, which doesn’t line up with this. Plus, it’s useless. Even I bet on Trump to win the last election, and I don’t even live in the U.S. In a country that respects individual freedom, what that poll says isn’t significant. Bets on who will be president in the next election are going to bring in a lot of revenue.

[fredericktaylor]

In the United States, some people do not want to gambling on the election and it is a normal thing to do. However, whether people can gamble on this issue or not depends entirely on the US government. If the general people is aware, then gambling on the election will not have a big impact, it is a place for entertainment for the general people's, so it is reasonable to make more strict rules on it rather than completely closing it. I think it is a concern whether those who are actually opposing the ban on gambling on the election have good intentions or bad ones.

[coupable]

I have some disagreements regarding this Reuters survey.

They might be seeking to curb the tendency to bet on prediction market or elections by invoking  specter of public morality. This actually seems a bit one sided to me. I don’t think that placing bet on US presidential election or government related event is any major wrongdoing. And I also do not believe that it is possible to easily carry out any major manipulation or fraud through this.

Alongside traditional gambling site, these prediction market often help in providing highly accurate forecast. Which is more realistic than even ordinary poll or media propaganda.

If an American voter can obtain information from the prediction market as to which party or candidate the bettors have chosen the most, his decision as to whether or not to vote may be affected. If the statistics are publicly known, this is a type of indirect manipulation. I guess this is exactly what the Americans who voted against the prediction market in that survey know. But the authorities can require from these markets to withhold their statistics until the vote is over.

[fighter2627]

Even though most of them are against such betting when they have an election, I think that if there are gamblers who bet and look for a place to bet,
that betting will definitely still happen.

And no one knows for sure who the bettors will be during an election or other things. So even if it's something else,
there are still sure to bet during such a time.

[xenomorfo]

I was surprised to see that according to most comments it seems that many users have a hard time seeing the connection between manipulation and predictive markets about elections, except for the last two posts.

It's not because of fear of novelty, it's because the more economic interests there are in a certain topic, the more likely it is that someone will want to take advantage and cheat. ln traditional gambling the games are neutral, whether it comes out black or white, your last spin gives you a big win, or your plane doesn't crash early, the result doesn't have a real-world effect beyond whether you win or lose some money. But in elections we are playing the future of democracy or a dictatorship, peace or war, supply or hunger, in short, life or death. It is not a matter to give an opinion lightly.

Manipulating elections with predictive markets seems exaggerated to me, but using what you know to earn money is now proven.
Also proven that our dear friend, piece of shit Trump is stealing money from everyone, Americans, Europeans, the world... his aim is to steal.
I don't understand why no one stops him.

[danherbias07]

I am not an American, but I am also against it. I think it's the younger generation who are opposing the betting lines of government officials and the voting system. It's not right because it's prone to manipulation and fraud.

I believe those surveys are correct, but I highly doubt the prediction markets will stop it because there's still big money coming in on those lines. If it's not US citizens who will gamble on those lines, then there are other countries that would probably love to do it, and that's their target market. Some gamblers do have fun trying to guess who will win the elections, but if you are from that place, it's not fun at all.

[alastantiger]

Even though most of them are against such betting when they have an election, I think that if there are gamblers who bet and look for a place to bet, that betting will definitely still happen.
And no one knows for sure who the bettors will be during an election or other things. So even if it's something else,
there are still sure to bet during such a time.

Some people will always find ways to gamble even though it is illegal but at least the numbers of people gambling can reduce when it is illegal to gamble on sensitive matters like elections that the individual that the odd is favouring is going to get more people to vote for him since people are used to wanting to be on the winning team and not the losing one. Just as how you can change your choice when the odd is favouring a particular club to win over the other so you do not lose your money, that same thing can happen to candidates too and that is how gambling can affect the elections results. While I am not supporting people rights to be taken away from them as everybody is allow to make decision on their own but it should not be legalized so it does not go mainstream.

[rbynxx]

Do you think that survey is accurate?

I do not think this kind of service is necessary. I do not see a way betting on United States presidential election can lead to manipulations.

I think 4,500 persons is a fair sample, but I think it really depends on how they conduct this survey. Moreover, I guess manipulating betting odds aren't the same as manipulating the actual election results. Even if they ban these prediction markets, people can still find a way to bet through some offshore gambling sites. What's the point of banning them more than to regulate them properly? I think the latter makes more sense.

[Alex077]

The title of the topic in full: Most Americans oppose betting on elections, government events, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds

I do not know if this is initiated not to allow prediction market not to allow United States presidential election bet. 4506 people in the United States voted. The vote is not in favour of gamblers.
...

I really don't think these poll results mean US authorities are about to ban prediction markets or betting on presidential elections. Public opinion obviously plays a role in regulatory decisions, but it takes more than that to justify a ban.
Especially since we're talking about the interests of some pretty big companies and issues related to financial market regulation. But we also can't rule out the use of insider information.

Prediction markets can be a useful tool for measuring public expectations, especially when a large number of independent participants are involved.

[Ziskinberg]

That's why there  was no election betting because it's not allowed in sportsbooks. They don't call it betting but prediction, but sadly it's allowed on Kalshi or Polymarket.

So even if they oppose it, it doesn't matter, they still don't win because the government still allows betting (prediction) on it.

Now, almost everything can be bet on, even the worst things we can imagine, that's how the US is trying to play us with their laws.
Not allowed in sportsbooks but allowed in prediction markets, come on, they are the same just with different names.