Most Americans oppose betting on elections, government events, Reuters/Ipsos pol

[bakasabo]

I would also be against betting on elections, government events and decisions because that might be reason for manipulation. If in sports there is commission or someone that will monitor cheating with betting and sport result, then I doubt there is someone who monitor same if government sees that one prediction has a very little chance to happen, and they on purpose make it happen.

[WhoYouCantKill]

I would also be against betting on elections, government events and decisions because that might be reason for manipulation. If in sports there is commission or someone that will monitor cheating with betting and sport result, then I doubt there is someone who monitor same if government sees that one prediction has a very little chance to happen, and they on purpose make it happen.

The real concern is that political events actually have inside people who actually have the power to be able to influence the very outcome that people are actually betting on. This way, it becomes nearly impossible to know whether truly the market does reflect a player’s genuine expectations or someone else’s inside information. And that’s why there’s a huge distinction between betting on political events or decisions and events like sports, where match fixing rules and sporting authorities provides players with some form of oversight.

[Hatchy]

It probably won't lead to manipulation but people are very easily mislead these days, especially the weak minded folks, the moment one candidate that having more people betting for them to win you will find that most who were apathetic to the election will end up voting for whoever was is leading in the bets and something like that can very easily be manipulated with mass false bets being placed on one candidate over the other.
Besides all that, Americans have preached rights to the point where y'all are allowed to do some really stupid things, where's the smartness in betting on your own presidential election, it shows how much of a joke the election is to most of y'all.

Theoretically, this might be possible, but would people really want to manipulate an election just to make some quick money, only to face the consequences of having a bad government in the future? I don't think the profits from a few bets would be worth the problems they could create by influencing an election. We know that election manipulation happens, but I doubt that prediction market bets alone would influence the majority of election results.

Honestly, I don't really like prediction markets because of the kinds of things people can bet on, some of which are not logically right. However, when it comes to elections, the outcome is uncertain because we never know for sure who will win. So, I think it might be reasonable to allow people to bet on election outcomes as well.

[NanLomarig]

Everything in life can be bet on, this is what most of you do not know and do not want to accept.

Following that logic you could build a whole new philosophy. They used to say "all the world's a stage", now it could be "all of life is a bookie" 

Even the elections themselves are kind of bets, candidates put big money into campaigns hoping to win, and voters bet that the promises will come true and life will get better.

So betting on election results is just another side of the same story, and I don't see a reason to ban it.

[gracreavix]

Prediction markets bets has nothing to do with the actual election. Just because a few people say a particular party will win doesn't mean they would. Besides the numbers are way to small compared to the actual number of people in the country. Using that has to say the election will go this way is out of line and won't actually mean something tangible.

For the drop in betting over the years is staggering and still more gambling sites are popping up. I guess it's not only that region they are servicing. I wish to know the cause of the huge decline in betting.

[5W-KILO]

I don't believe this survey, placing bets on elections and government events are something that people do using prediction markets, voting against this means that prediction markets in America will suffer for it.

There is no news online that's so against prediction market or something similar online anywhere, I am thinking that this survey is very onesided.

I am very sure that so many Americans made alot of money from these government events, why should anyone wanted them gone? These events are cool and still better than placing bets on disasters around the world.

[swogerino]

I don't believe this survey, placing bets on elections and government events are something that people do using prediction markets, voting against this means that prediction markets in America will suffer for it.

There is no news online that's so against prediction market or something similar online anywhere, I am thinking that this survey is very onesided.

I am very sure that so many Americans made alot of money from these government events, why should anyone wanted them gone? These events are cool and still better than placing bets on disasters around the world.

Usually Americans are the ones who bet on the most crazy events and not only political events. I think this is just a survey and the result of a survey is irrelevant as people are free to say what they want for example if I am on live television and some journalist asked me if I have ever gambled I would reply I don't even know what gambling is  so these are just random results not really showing what is the reality of betting in America.

[Yorubek]

Prediction markets bets has nothing to do with the actual election. Just because a few people say a particular party will win doesn't mean they would. Besides the numbers are way to small compared to the actual number of people in the country. Using that has to say the election will go this way is out of line and won't actually mean something tangible.

For the drop in betting over the years is staggering and still more gambling sites are popping up. I guess it's not only that region they are servicing. I wish to know the cause of the huge decline in betting.

It is not possible to predict which party will win or lose in an election, so I think the prediction market is unlikely to have an impact on the election. Some people think that it will have an impact on the election, naturally people have already made up their minds about who they will support. Just because people bet more on the team that is ahead in the prediction market does not mean that that person or party is ahead in the election. People will come to the prediction market and bet on it as they wish, it is natural.

[red4slash]

Do you think that survey is accurate?

I do not think this kind of service is necessary. I do not see a way betting on United States presidential election can lead to manipulations.

imo regardless of whether it is accurate or not this will eventually be some of the things that can happen such as when making a source who may not be a gambler or when making this as a necessity where when the survey of course we will make something look better and another possibility is that some of the gamblers will make the argument that politics and some things that allude to humanitarian

But in the end when the presidential election happens there will definitely be an awful lot to bet on because sometimes this will always be momentum for seasonal gambling which is a little hard to avoid.
In the previous period also we can see a lot of betting on the presidential election and for the next period I think it will not be much different even in the majority survey to be the opposition

[Antotena]

I would also be against betting on elections, government events and decisions because that might be reason for manipulation. If in sports there is commission or someone that will monitor cheating with betting and sport result, then I doubt there is someone who monitor same if government sees that one prediction has a very little chance to happen, and they on purpose make it happen.

This is exactly what happened the Day Durov was arrest and extracted to the US. Among the solder in that operation hint a friend to open a position on oil and the very day there was spike in volume of oil. After investigation was done on insider trading, it was found out that among the soldiers was responsible for market manipulation on a prediction market. These could be the small out larger portion of governments insiders that are manipulation result.

Election that on a normal day people don't pay attention to what's going on, they just want to see their candidates been announce as the winnoner in an election will be the easiest to manipulate. The effects on the election will be transparent that they will think candidates are responsible but guess what? They will be responsible for vote manipulation. They allegedly do it but hide under some roof. Even Trump cried one time that votes were been manipulated.

[Cryptomultiplier]

Do you think that survey is accurate?

I do not think this kind of service is necessary. I do not see a way betting on United States presidential election can lead to manipulations.

imo regardless of whether it is accurate or not this will eventually be some of the things that can happen such as when making a source who may not be a gambler or when making this as a necessity where when the survey of course we will make something look better and another possibility is that some of the gamblers will make the argument that politics and some things that allude to humanitarian

But in the end when the presidential election happens there will definitely be an awful lot to bet on because sometimes this will always be momentum for seasonal gambling which is a little hard to avoid.
In the previous period also we can see a lot of betting on the presidential election and for the next period I think it will not be much different even in the majority survey to be the opposition

The predictions market isn't a gambling platform as am led to believe because they operate with a different system and are trying to ensure they have their own regulations they abide by.
So until the CFTC states clearly where the predictions market stand, I doubt any such poll holds much weight mostly as it regards the U.S presidential election, even if we know that betting would still go on.

[bakasabo]

I would also be against betting on elections, government events and decisions because that might be reason for manipulation. If in sports there is commission or someone that will monitor cheating with betting and sport result, then I doubt there is someone who monitor same if government sees that one prediction has a very little chance to happen, and they on purpose make it happen.

The real concern is that political events actually have inside people who actually have the power to be able to influence the very outcome that people are actually betting on. This way, it becomes nearly impossible to know whether truly the market does reflect a player’s genuine expectations or someone else’s inside information. And that’s why there’s a huge distinction between betting on political events or decisions and events like sports, where match fixing rules and sporting authorities provides players with some form of oversight.

I would prefer to gamble every 4 years when there are elections and I am not 100% sure who is going to win or which party will form government, than gamble and make predictions, what people who I have voted for (or opponents), will decide or make next. When a person votes for party or person, he should at least approximately know or be able to predict what this person will do if he gets into government or be able to make decision for whole country. As to gambling, then elections are better form of gambling than placing prediction on government events.

[qurbanshah02]

Do you think that survey is accurate?

I do not think this kind of service is necessary. I do not see a way betting on United States presidential election can lead to manipulations.

imo regardless of whether it is accurate or not this will eventually be some of the things that can happen such as when making a source who may not be a gambler or when making this as a necessity where when the survey of course we will make something look better and another possibility is that some of the gamblers will make the argument that politics and some things that allude to humanitarian

But in the end when the presidential election happens there will definitely be an awful lot to bet on because sometimes this will always be momentum for seasonal gambling which is a little hard to avoid.
In the previous period also we can see a lot of betting on the presidential election and for the next period I think it will not be much different even in the majority survey to be the opposition

The predictions market isn't a gambling platform as am led to believe because they operate with a different system and are trying to ensure they have their own regulations they abide by.

Some casinos have prediction points because this is also a kind of thinking that you can win by predicting and play in gambling, which can make a lot of profit at the gambling den. Yes, it works differently, but it can create a lot of reputation in the casino and they can make money from both sides because predictions in the market mostly fail and if the prediction is kept in a good way and the prize is also introduced well, people can be attracted a lot more. Although there are different things in both of them, so not all casinos keep it in themselves. Although there are fewer people who put money in predictions, the casino does not bear much burden and does not keep it in itself.

[WhoYouCantKill]

I would prefer to gamble every 4 years when there are elections and I am not 100% sure who is going to win or which party will form government, than gamble and make predictions, what people who I have voted for (or opponents), will decide or make next. When a person votes for party or person, he should at least approximately know or be able to predict what this person will do if he gets into government or be able to make decision for whole country. As to gambling, then elections are better form of gambling than placing prediction on government events.

The tricky part is that elections and government decisions are two different things. During elections or before voting, it’s a lot more easier for people to study a candidate’s records and promises, but the moment they get elected and have assumed office, their decisions become harder to predict as factors like political pressure could affect these decisions.
For me, I don’t think it’s even a good idea to even bet on elections because these things could be rigged or even manipulated, especially in countries where corruption has become the order of the day.

[hedgeh0g]

The tricky part is that elections and government decisions are two different things. During elections or before voting, it’s a lot more easier for people to study a candidate’s records and promises, but the moment they get elected and have assumed office, their decisions become harder to predict as factors like political pressure could affect these decisions.
For me, I don’t think it’s even a good idea to even bet on elections because these things could be rigged or even manipulated, especially in countries where corruption has become the order of the day.

Of course, there is pressure; in the struggle for power, American candidates may present themselves in various ways, yet once elected, they might act in an entirely different manner. As for betting on political contests, I would lean more toward "no" than "yes" it just goes too far, in my view though it does attract millions of people worldwide. Before an election, many people fancy themselves experts, believing they can easily predict the outcome, when in reality, that’s not the case at all. I’m not sure what kind of advantage one would need to place such a bet, in theory, even those with inside information couldn’t know the result in advance.

[uchegod-21]

If I were an American and also voted, I will be part of the Americans that opposed betting on elections and all forms of government events or anything related. The issue of insider information trading is very common when dealing with matters like this of public interest. Alot of reports have been received about people who make their money from selling out insider information that are not supposed to be known to the public yet. Such predictions or bets encourage bad behaviour, therefore should be banned.

[mak013]

They have far more opportunities to manipulate. I don't think they need to spend money on another one.
But you're right that an election is more important than a football match. Maybe that's the main point here - to show that some things should be taken more seriously, and that not everything in life is just a game.

Everything in life can be bet on, this is what most of you do not know and do not want to accept. As long as the bet is not the reason for the bad thing that is happening. Even election is not a bad thing, it is not as serious in the scenario like people's death. Bets can not be overturn election results or change the outcome of election. So there is nothing bad if people bet on election.

I agree. Especially if you just place a bet and do nothing else to improve your chances.
But maybe the idea is that Americans place bets just to win and possibly vote in a way that increases their chances of winning. Or at least they simply don't think about the election or what they're voting for.

[Somegory]

This whole prediction market drama looks like something that's made for the politics and the insiders, it's like they made prediction for their dakess because they are the ones benefitting from it than the public.

If possible they should bring in some tougher laws on prediction markets, or else it's possible that they will have to scrap it in the future, there is clearly too much manipulation happening with insiders and politicians.

Prediction markets are like the crypto haven for developers who likes to create a anew project so that they can exit with investors money and then proceed to another launch.

[Odusko]

Prediction markets bets has nothing to do with the actual election. Just because a few people say a particular party will win doesn't mean they would. Besides the numbers are way to small compared to the actual number of people in the country. Using that has to say the election will go this way is out of line and won't actually mean something tangible.

For the drop in betting over the years is staggering and still more gambling sites are popping up. I guess it's not only that region they are servicing. I wish to know the cause of the huge decline in betting.

From what I have read about the whole citizens  anger is not about predicting the outcome of election which is most gambled about because no one can tell untill the elections are conducted, their own problem is in the possibility of insiders practices either from the politicians angles, or the predictions market, who could change results or get prior information to work and bet with.

[bakasabo]

This whole prediction market drama looks like something that's made for the politics and the insiders, it's like they made prediction for their dakess because they are the ones benefitting from it than the public.

I have never though about one thing until I saw your post. This sounds crazy and sad, but what if prediction market and betting on elections and government events were created by politicians on purpose to earn even more with their status ? Thinking about this deeply, who are indirect beneficials and who can has control over prediction on such events? Similar to mafia controlling results in sports betting (boxing is knows for that), politicians control prediction market.