Google's Latest Breakthrough: is it a threat to bitcoin security?

[masulum]

Every technology comes with both benefits and risks for people. If quantum computing becomes serious threat to Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, then community must be ready to work to strengthen protocol to make it more resistant from quantum attacks.

I believe there is still have enough time to prepare for this conditions, because researchers and developers will always monitoring the update of developments in quantum computing and also searchig for potential solutions to stay safe from any attack. For now, I don’t think we have to panic about any quantum computing news, just follow the news, let computer and cyber security expert in the world working for creating quantum security/resistance technology too.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

And probably we have seen some old wallets coming into life and moving to a new Bitcoin address that will not exposed their public key to be somewhat still going to be protected from this quantum threat.

However, there are still some old addresses like in Satoshi and that sparks a lot of debate whether we shouldn't touch it at all. But up to now there are no consensus at all. But perhaps when things with quantum are already here, there might be some movements from devs on how to protect each and everyone. And so we can't deny that the threat is real and everyone should be ready.

[L E G E N D A R Y]

If you ask me, I’ll say that it’s not even close to the stage where Bitcoiners would begin to panic. The machines aren’t that powerful enough to break Bitcoin because there’s still a lot of work that needs to be done which may possibly take several decades more before anything like that can happen.
This is pretty much the reason why several big companies put funds together to form the Bitcoin security Consortium, they are simply just preparing for the future, and not simply because the threat is already here. Bitcoin is still very much safe for everyone as long as we take the necessary precautions, you know, use a non custodial wallet, keep you seeds completely offline and safe, avoid clicking on shady links and website all and you shouldn’t have anything to worry about.

[Sunshine1525]

(Snip)

I'm very much aware that there are threads about QC, but most of them are just speculation, this one  I feel its significant since the development is coming from google.

Quantum this Quantum that, I'm tired of the whole threads discussing possible threats without any successful hack by a Quantum technology, is this supposed to create another fud, maybe to beginners but people who know how to properly self custody wouldn't take this seriously cause it's no big deal.

Your post is also a speculation, cause even though the breakthrough was achieved by Google, there's no single evidence that it's successfully unlocked any wallet so Bitcoin's network remains safe from quantum threats.

[Luzin]

My concern, what if they could crack those old wallets that hold millions or billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin, like Satoshi's wallets.

This issue is what makes developers face difficulties in overcoming it. So far, BIP 360 and BIP 361 have been proposed but have not yet become the best solution due to one weakness. That is, Satoshi's old wallet cannot be migrated manually. Although there is a repair option in BIP361, up to now this solution has not become the choice for developers. In BIP361, it will be divided into 3 phases. Phase A forbids anyone from sending new bitcoins to old addresses, Phase B makes old signatures (ECDSA and Schnorr) completely ineffective, and Phase C is a rescue plan that is still under research.

Source: https://www.weex.com/id/news/detail/bitcoin-developers-proposed-bip-361-to-combat-potential-future-quantum-attack-risks-656794

[Nathrixxx]

I'm very much aware that there are threads about QC, but most of them are just speculation, this one  I feel its significant since the development is coming from google.

Quantum this Quantum that, I'm tired of the whole threads discussing possible threats without any successful hack by a Quantum technology, is this supposed to create another fud, maybe to beginners but people who know how to properly self custody wouldn't take this seriously cause it's no big deal.

Your post is also a speculation, cause even though the breakthrough was achieved by Google, there's no single evidence that it's successfully unlocked any wallet so Bitcoin's network remains safe from quantum threats.

Google is probably just a name and the Threat with quantum computer has to be more emphasized on that it is nothing on bitcoin network so that we don't constitute those that will be spreading the fake news of possible attack by any means, this post particularly is directed to @Questat based on his response, which I think we don't have to even see Google as a more advanced entity like they are no other that could out smart them in research, but that is not where we are heading to, quantum computers cannot attack bitcoin network and that makes the whole idea simple.

[slaman29]

Google releases statement saying it reduces errors by so and so percent. Great. So what 1 trillion errors down from 40 trillion? Google doesn't know fact from fiction, it can only tell you what it is told.

Same as all AI, when will we understand this has nothing as a threat to Bitcoin?

[Alpha Marine]

We need to consider that the world does not revolve around Bitcoin. We know that Bitcoin is a big part of our lives, but not everything is about Bitcoin.
What I have always said is that if quantum computers are as big a threat as they say, then the world has bigger problems than just Bitcoin. If quantum computers can break every security, then nothing is safe. From the banking sector to the equity market to even military security and cybersecurity as a whole. Nothing is safe.
I agree that quantum computers are a threat, but I don't consider it to be an imminent threat. I don't believe everything will just be sitting ducks for quantum computers to pluck out.
Besides, there is already a BIP-361 proposal that is quantum computer resistance.

[Lucius]

Google releases statement saying it reduces errors by so and so percent. Great. So what 1 trillion errors down from 40 trillion? Google doesn't know fact from fiction, it can only tell you what it is told.

Same as all AI, when will we understand this has nothing as a threat to Bitcoin?

Quantum computers will pose a threat to everything that today is protected by some kind of encryption, but as such computers progress, these systems will be upgraded or new ones will come that will be resistant to such threats. Before advanced AI began to appear, there was talk that quantum computers would reach dangerous levels within the next decade, but apparently this is progressing at a much faster rate now.

I don't think that Bitcoin will be caught in that trap (at least not the active users), but for some old coins that show no signs of any control by someone, there may not be a happy ending. Everyone fears what will happen to Satoshi coins, and if the threat becomes real and if he is still alive, he may decide to move them to a safer address.

[slaman29]

Google releases statement saying it reduces errors by so and so percent. Great. So what 1 trillion errors down from 40 trillion? Google doesn't know fact from fiction, it can only tell you what it is told.

Same as all AI, when will we understand this has nothing as a threat to Bitcoin?

Quantum computers will pose a threat to everything that today is protected by some kind of encryption, but as such computers progress, these systems will be upgraded or new ones will come that will be resistant to such threats. Before advanced AI began to appear, there was talk that quantum computers would reach dangerous levels within the next decade, but apparently this is progressing at a much faster rate now.

I don't think that Bitcoin will be caught in that trap (at least not the active users), but for some old coins that show no signs of any control by someone, there may not be a happy ending. Everyone fears what will happen to Satoshi coins, and if the threat becomes real and if he is still alive, he may decide to move them to a safer address.

Exactly. I first saw quantum computing news even 10 years ago and the mistake of all these articles was that they thought Bitcoin (or anything else) would simply just stop progressing. Bitcoin has undergone upgrades before, and once the threat becomes closer and closer to being actual, the network will progress, upgrade, update, stay ahead.

But you're also right about the old addresses... I think we see them move, or sent to burn address. Then we'll know satoshi is still sticking around

[MainIbem]

Exactly. I first saw quantum computing news even 10 years ago and the mistake of all these articles was that they thought Bitcoin (or anything else) would simply just stop progressing. Bitcoin has undergone upgrades before, and once the threat becomes closer and closer to being actual, the network will progress, upgrade, update, stay ahead.

But you're also right about the old addresses... I think we see them move, or sent to burn address. Then we'll know satoshi is still sticking around

Maybe moving coins to new wallet address who's keys isn't exposed would be much safer. Old wallets including that of Satoshi might be targets of such attacks but since there's no movement of Satoshi's coins to a new wallets yet, maybe the threat is not as serious as it's claimed to be be. However I'm aware that devs have drafted proposals for post-quantum signatures although it's not activated yet but in the future everyone would have to migrate to quantum safe wallets. For now the Google's break through isn't a threat to Bitcoin's security.

[red4slash]

Thought I'd share this since it's quite an interesting announcement since it's coming from Google.

So here's the story, Google recently announced another breakthrough in quantum computing using its Willow processor,. it achieved around a 40-fold reduction in errors.

For me this is another big development that could possibly bring us closer to what some have feared and some have welcomed which is quantum computing, and those concerns about Bitcoin's security are quite serious since I believe a team of big investors has already formed a group called the Bitcoin Security Consortium to ensure the Bitcoin system remains safe.

My concern, what if they could crack those old wallets that hold millions or billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin, like Satoshi's wallets.

My answer will still be the same which will not make you worry too much because no matter how big the claims will be made by the media about quantum computers, bitcoin always has its own way of making security more sophisticated.

I know maybe this is some kind of pretty big confidence but in the end when we can only make this fear isn't it just going to make us even more burdened by overthinking when it hasn't happened (maybe not even happened).

I still believe in satoshi.

However, if something happened and the signatures were compromised (perhaps integer factorization is solved, quantum computers?), then even agreeing upon the last valid block would be worthless.

True, if it happened suddenly.  If it happens gradually, we can still transition to something stronger.  When you run the upgraded software for the first time, it would re-sign all your money with the new stronger signature algorithm.  (by creating a transaction sending the money to yourself with the stronger sig)

Since the beginning satoshi was already preparing for the possibility about quantum computers even it was 1 decade more when he was in the initial creation of bitcoin. He confidently said this statement and now most of us are afraid to overdo it with quantum computers?

[Lucius]

~snip~
But you're also right about the old addresses... I think we see them move, or sent to burn address. Then we'll know satoshi is still sticking around

It wouldn't be strange even if Satoshi did nothing, because he has to assess whether his "return" would do more harm than good compared to doing nothing and letting someone hack his coins.

Hacking would not necessarily be a bad thing if it was done by someone whose only motivation is not profit, but on the other hand, if it was done by someone with bad intentions, the amount of coins that would be released to the market would have a very negative impact on the price.

[X-ray]

Another breakthrough on quantum computing is something that is to be expected, we're already getting NIST deadline and there is billions of global cumulative investment in quantum technologies.

It'd be weirder if there is no breakthrough after quite some time.

The thing is, if you read the article, this breakthrough happens on smaller scale quantum computer and they need to test it on larger scale before the breakthrough become useful enough to break Bitcoin's ECDSA.

But there is nothing to worry because the Bitcoin developer community is also progressing.

[#CapsLOck]

What is important to note is that the signature cryptography of Bitcoin cannot be broken in the same way that its consensus rules can be broken. If a powerful enough quantum computer could be built. It could be able to extract the private key from a public key and thus steal coins. But this would not enable it to rewrite the blockchain or mint coins as it pleased. Bitcoin keys have not yet been cracked. Google's error reduction is progress in quantum computing. The true question is if Bitcoin can orchestrate a quantum-resistant signature migration before it gets to be viable and more significantly for the old coins that have lost their public keys.

[Josefjix]

There would always be more and more sophistication to the network and it would continue to be protected with every technological advancement and those despoiled for these technologies would be sure to put security measures in check.

Security measures in check? You forgotten what happens to Coldcard and others, do you ever thought such things could happen to a hardware wallet? Where was the security measures taken, nothing.

There is no strong security in the space, everything can be breach if proper expert, time and technologies are in place to crack it. I no longer believe in anything security check anymore in the crypto industry.

[Zoomic]

What is important to note is that the signature cryptography of Bitcoin cannot be broken in the same way that its consensus rules can be broken. If a powerful enough quantum computer could be built. It could be able to extract the private key from a public key and thus steal coins. But this would not enable it to rewrite the blockchain or mint coins as it pleased. Bitcoin keys have not yet been cracked. Google's error reduction is progress in quantum computing. The true question is if Bitcoin can orchestrate a quantum-resistant signature migration before it gets to be viable and more significantly for the old coins that have lost their public keys.

I think it's very possible for developers to also come up with quantum-resistant signatures. But if that happens, what'll be the fate of those coins whose owners are no longer active especially the ones in the old wallets?

There's no certainty that Satoshi's coins will be moved before quantum computer threat becomes practical.

Again, the coins that are in old wallets whose private keys are lost and can't be accessed again which have been declared "lost", what happens to them, does it mean they'll be in circulation again?

Will these coins be left exposed or will they be freezed or is there any other measure that'll be introduced?

These questions might just become more controversial than the actual upgrade.

[Faisal2202]

The terms that I have read whenever I read something about quantum computers make me feel like the most illiterate person on Earth haha. Like, to understand this fact you just shared, I read a few articles, asked AI about different terms, and now my mind is boggling. Like, what the hell is happening? Anyway, so far, this is what I have understood about what has happened. If you really understand it all, tell me if I am wrong or right.

So they got a 40-fold reduction in errors while preparing "magic states," which are a resource for creating fault-tolerant quantum computation, right? Now, what Google has reported is that they produce these states with 99.99% logical fidelity. (What is this?) Don't worry, I will tell the readers. Logical fidelity is like a mathematically perfect version of the magic state, like a brick that is 99.99% well-made for a skyscraper, so you can understand how big this is.

But a magic state is a chemical reagent, and making it was their biggest error because I found that it is hard to make. Now, with Google, that error rate has dropped to about 1/40th of what it was before.

Now, why are these magic states important? Because researchers have said they need 500,000 clean magic states per second, nonstop, for the calculation to work to break btc encryption. So we are not there yet. We have just been able to create one brick.

So, OP, if I am wrong, you can shed some light, but so far, this is it. I took my time to understand what and where we are at, even. So they need 500k per second, and so far, they have spent years to achieve one magic state.

[Dogedegen]

Every time there is a marketing article about a "breakthrough" someone makes a thread like this, and every time the thread is made the answer is a no.. why is it so hard to learn? If there was a threat to Bitcoin you would know it, experts would be talking about it and it would be big panic in the news. As there is no such thing, you could easily realize yourself that there is no threat. Your time is better spent reading all threads about the quantum story and all kinds of breakthroughs on the way in the past if you really wanted to learn..

I think it's very possible for developers to also come up with quantum-resistant signatures. But if that happens, what'll be the fate of those coins whose owners are no longer active especially the ones in the old wallets?

Developers implement stuff, they don't come up with signatures. It is very discouraged that developers invent their own cryptography because that always ends up having a huge flaw. Anyway many quantum-resistant signatures already exist, so I don't understand why talk about them as they are something that still needs to be created?