JPMorgan Predicts 10% Annual Bitcoin Returns, is it too conservative?

[aoluain]

Is that just a kind of average forecast?

Do they not know the Bitcoin market doesnt just keep rising without some 'peaks and troughs'
or as generally referred to as corrections.

It also seems that they have totally overlooked the halving event and the 4 year cycle which
centres around that.

As well as being a conservative outlook it just doesnt seem realistic, I recon its aimed at their
client base who would probably more content with a 10% annual increase rather than the reality

which is Volatility

[freedomgo]

Is that just a kind of average forecast?

Everything has already been considered including volatility. That forecast is just the average annual increase, which I know many of us here would not agree with as Bitcoin has pumped like crazy in the past, so with that, maybe they believe that kind of bull run will not happen again because there's no more room for Bitcoin to moon in their view.

[EarnOnVictor]

Do you agree with their prediction or do you think they are too conservative?

And as reported this is actually higher than their forecasts for US stocks and gold, which are 7.5% and 5.5% respectively.

That is a good projection, and I would go with them on this one. This is not for perfection/accuracy, but for the fact that it's reasonable.

They are used to having their short and long-term protections, but this doesn't mean it should come to pass as they projected it. They do this often, and it's just for them to have their plan towards it, which may be disappointing or perform beyond their expectations.

[FinneysTrueVision]

In the past year, it is down a lot, so you can’t expect it to be going up in a smooth line. Nonetheless, a 10% annual increase on average is still very reasonable and makes more sense than those predictions by Arthur Hayes and Tom Lee. I would at least expect it to increase in accordance with the rate of inflation. As fiat loses value everything becomes worth relatively more.

Bitcoin, with it’s limited supply, should in theory outperform other assets. That’s not always the case as we have seen with AI-related stocks and gold. A decade from now, things might be a lot different, so we have to let things play out. Based on actual conditions today, I believe Bitcoin should be a good long term hold.

[Dave1]

Is that just a kind of average forecast?

Everything has already been considered including volatility. That forecast is just the average annual increase, which I know many of us here would not agree with as Bitcoin has pumped like crazy in the past, so with that, maybe they believe that kind of bull run will not happen again because there's no more room for Bitcoin to moon in their view.

If I'm not mistaken, the last all high time for it's lowest low during that cycle might have given us 70% returns or even higher. So yeah, a annual returns might be too conservative for us and for sure we won't agree with that.

But in any case, we have seen worst predictions in the past already and it has proven wrong by Bitcoin market. So I will take this statement as something that they might just want to be controversial. And the crux of it all, it is coming from JPMorgan who we all know has history of love and hate relationship with us.

[LogitechMouse]

So this is the first time JPMorgan has made a long-term prediction on Bitcoin.. so I took the current Bitcoin price and based on their forecast of 10% annualized returns, this is what it would look like for the next 10 years.
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Do you agree with their prediction or do you think they are too conservative?

10% per annum is much, much lower than what Bitcoin could give you in the span of 4 years.

2022 bear market. Bitcoin went down to as low as $16,000, and over the next 3 years, it went up from as low as $16,000 to as high as $126,000. That's a whopping 687.5% increase in just a span of 3 years. Well, I'm not saying that it will be the case this time yet again, but if we will think of it, the return is way higher than what JPMorgan is predicting. Of course, this assumes that you bought during the lowest price of it or at least near it, so it's still depends, but that annual return also have some factors to consider still so... what changed?

As somebody who saw the market moved in the near a decade, I've already know what's the best year to buy Bitcoin and sell it, so I don't think that I want it to have an annualized return like the Stock Market or the other asset classes out there. Also, I don't think that the investors want it. Also, it's the same company who called Bitcoin "a fraud" in 2017 and so many criticisms around it in the past years.

[asriloni]

Even this 10% annual prediction is just another hate statement against bitcoin because how can company which has always been warning people of bitcoin volatility taking it down to low price do not consider same volatility for bitcoin in terms of increasing price this just like them saying ‘yes we believe that bitcoin will rise but it won’t rise that much’ it’s a way to just discourage their people to look into other assets.

To be honest yes bitcoin will continue to reduce in volatility but there is a long period of time to say that it will tajd bitcoin 10 years for a 2x move, even if the volatility is reducing bitcoin will mostly likely get more than 5x in the next 10 years.

Instead of a hate statement, i think they're only trying to say they're owning bitcoin without saying they're owning bitcoin. I understand your concern about 10% ROI is telling us how they're highly underestimating bitcoin's potential return, but this is not what they're trying to say.

They try to tell world if they have changed their stance on bitcoin from always bashing it anytime, then correcting it after they being one of bitcoin bag holder, though it still sounds fishy for anyone who knows the history of them bashing btc for more almost a decade.

A conservative prediction to convince their members to go to bitcoin is not that bad. Beside that someone would never be graduated from their school if they never try to admit their wrongdoing, then changing their stance.

[Lida93]

I think bitcoin will go up more than it in the next 10 years. Let us see what will happen in the next bull run. It will be good to know that bitcoin is not an asset that will give huge ROI unlike before, but I still think the price of bitcoin would have been higher than $215000 in the next 10 years.

Of course it certainly would, the price of bitcoin. Anyone can buy their analysis make their speculation but from what we have known with the price gaps from each bitcoin bull runs it's very possible that price could exceed those numbers by JPMorgan.
The periods of huge profits from bitcoin was when bitcoin price was still insignificantly low, the growth in it's value due to widely adoptions has made changes with ROI on the asset except for a long term investment backed with large holdings.

[Filicius]

The price of Bitcoin will not increase continuously like this. There will be both bull and bear seasons in the next 10 years. However, if you can hold for a long 10 years, it will be possible to get more than 10% annual return. According to your chart, the price of Bitcoin is predicted to be $215k after 10 years, but I think the price will be higher than that. Many are expecting 200k in the upcoming bull run, so in this case the price should be higher after 10 years. So I am waiting to see how much BTC reaches in the upcoming bull run. I see this as conservative.

The thing is that, as you said, the price during cycles vary from accumulation lows to FOMO ATHs, so you are right that there has never been a continuous increase like in the chart, but I guess that the line is smoothed to avoid short-term fluctuations.

The problem with that is that until now the peaks have followed a parabolic rise, which makes practically no sense to soften the line, and even if it did, I would expect larger increases that, contrary to the graph, would decrease over time instead of increasing.

[Leahized]

bitcoin might not have the same volatility as previous years but the volatility have not become so low that bitcoin will only do 100% in 10 years. By all odds, his speculation is wrong and time will proof it. In this incoming bull season, I am even speculating that price could surpass $180k.

I think, JPmorgan prediction may reflect after 10 years. However, I'm not sure if it will give an annual return of 10%. But we should always consider the positive aspects. According to the previously formed pattern, Bitcoin upward trend will not increase significantly. Because, that counterpart will not be able to obtain liquidity. However, considering the global economy, many savers will be hesitant to save money in banking and will show interest in investment.

And since we will see three more halving by 2036, the number of investors will increase in turn. So I think we can see a 100%+ return within the next 10 years.

[danherbias07]

Neither conservative nor too ambitious. We all know how volatile Bitcoin can be, but I am also optimistic that it will grow. It's just that the numbers cannot be predicted. The ATH was predicted only by a few, and yet it happened. The lowest that was predicted by many has not happened yet, and I think that's thanks to the ETF keeping Bitcoin's strength on hold.

10% annual can actually become 50% more in just a year or two. Then, they will probably decide that there will be 10% yearly growth again after they realize they calculated it wrong. I think they are just using the numbers so that investors will stick to the long-term plan.

[freedomgo]

That is a good projection, and I would go with them on this one. This is not for perfection/accuracy, but for the fact that it's reasonable.

For a long term investor, getting 10% increase of your money and safe from inflation, it's already a good thing.

In the past year, it is down a lot, so you can’t expect it to be going up in a smooth line. Nonetheless, a 10% annual increase on average is still very reasonable and makes more sense than those predictions by Arthur Hayes and Tom Lee. I would at least expect it to increase in accordance with the rate of inflation. As fiat loses value everything becomes worth relatively more.

And for them to think it will increase higher than US stocks in average, it's already a big win for us.
They even believe bitcoin is more profitable than gold. 

10% per annum is much, much lower than what Bitcoin could give you in the span of 4 years.

yes but we passed the early stage, and bitcoin is more stable now since its back by big companies and those ETFs.
So we might not see those kind of dumps we witness in the past few years.

[Japinat]

10% annual can actually become 50% more in just a year or two. Then, they will probably decide that there will be 10% yearly growth again after they realize they calculated it wrong.

It's just their projection, it doesn't necessarily mean it's correct, but the point here is that they have a positive outlook on Bitcoin which means they see its potential as a long-term investment.

Banks are good at managing risk, so I think they are starting to see Bitcoin as an asset worth considering despite its high volatility. That's how I interpret it.

I think they are just using the numbers so that investors will stick to the long-term plan.

How would that benefit them?

[M47AK16]

Instead of a hate statement, i think they're only trying to say they're owning bitcoin without saying they're owning bitcoin. I understand your concern about 10% ROI is telling us how they're highly underestimating bitcoin's potential return, but this is not what they're trying to say.

They try to tell world if they have changed their stance on bitcoin from always bashing it anytime, then correcting it after they being one of bitcoin bag holder, though it still sounds fishy for anyone who knows the history of them bashing btc for more almost a decade.

A conservative prediction to convince their members to go to bitcoin is not that bad. Beside that someone would never be graduated from their school if they never try to admit their wrongdoing, then changing their stance.

I doubt that, because 10% is nothing in those parts of the world. Wall Street is a place where you can do good if you make 20% or more, Warren Buffet averaged 20%, for example for the past 70 years or so, not 100%, not 50%, just 20% on average for 70 years and he became the richest person for a while. He wasn't some wizard; he did only 20%, and yet he still got to be richest person. So that is the goal: 20% or more.

So if JP Morgan says that we are going to have, on average, 10% for Bitcoin annually? That actually means that they think it is bad, because they think that 10% is bad, and this is not "we changed our minds about it"; this is more like "it is a bad investment that we can beat with stocks if you trust us", so that is why this is still being anti-Bitcoin.

[sergiorus]

So if JP Morgan says that we are going to have, on average, 10% for Bitcoin annually? That actually means that they think it is bad, because they think that 10% is bad, and this is not "we changed our minds about it"; this is more like "it is a bad investment that we can beat with stocks if you trust us", so that is why this is still being anti-Bitcoin.

Well, no. OP didn't attach another picture that illustrates they actually expect BTC to be the top performing asset:



And no, 10% a year for a single liquid asset is not low.

[Mrbluntzy]

we still don't forget.

Jamie Dimon's Criticism of Bitcoin Over the Years

2017 – Called Bitcoin a "fraud", compared it to tulip mania, and predicted its collapse. He also threatened to fire JPMorgan traders who traded Bitcoin.

2021 – Described Bitcoin as "worthless".

2022 – Called Bitcoin and similar cryptocurrencies "decentralized Ponzi schemes".

2023 – Called Bitcoin a "hyped-up fraud".

2024 – Compared Bitcoin to a "pet rock", suggesting it had little practical use.

So let him fuck off and stop making his hate speech about bitcoin. Bitcoin doesn't need him and his ridiculous prediction, as bitccoin can do what it likes without anyone guessing right the time it will happen. If he is not so obsessed with Bitcoin then how would he have come back to still make prediction after saying that he is done talking about Bitcoin and don't care anymore but yet he can't sleep without thinking about Bitcoin. I won't even be surprised if it is revealed any day that he has a huge amount of Bitcoin, seems it's a new tactics to criticize Bitcoin, shift attention and make people believe that you don't like Bitcoin but secretly the person is buy more and more of it.

[shinratensei_]

CAGR for ATH to ATH seems a little bit conservative but not too conservative, gotta acknowledge the fact that the trend is flattening as BTC's market cap is growing, it should be around 20% in my opinion whereas Strategy predict 30% CAGR. Quite different if it was cycle's bottom to ATH, that 10% annual bitcoin return is too conservative, 4 year rolling hold should be around 45% which even put Strategy's CAGR on the conservative side, you can imagine how low 10% annual return is. 10% isn't even a bad annual return though.

[Ziskinberg]

Well, no. OP didn't attach another picture that illustrates they actually expect BTC to be the top performing asset:

And no, 10% a year for a single liquid asset is not low.

I think it was already stated here, but only in general terms, your presentation is good as it provides more specific details.
And yes 10% is high if it's on a consistent basis, some might not understand it because we are already hyped and expect Bitcoin to increase by more than 100% again.

And as reported this is actually higher than their forecasts for US stocks and gold, which are 7.5% and 5.5% respectively.

[asriloni]

Instead of a hate statement, i think they're only trying to say they're owning bitcoin without saying they're owning bitcoin. I understand your concern about 10% ROI is telling us how they're highly underestimating bitcoin's potential return, but this is not what they're trying to say.

They try to tell world if they have changed their stance on bitcoin from always bashing it anytime, then correcting it after they being one of bitcoin bag holder, though it still sounds fishy for anyone who knows the history of them bashing btc for more almost a decade.

A conservative prediction to convince their members to go to bitcoin is not that bad. Beside that someone would never be graduated from their school if they never try to admit their wrongdoing, then changing their stance.

I doubt that, because 10% is nothing in those parts of the world. Wall Street is a place where you can do good if you make 20% or more, Warren Buffet averaged 20%, for example for the past 70 years or so, not 100%, not 50%, just 20% on average for 70 years and he became the richest person for a while. He wasn't some wizard; he did only 20%, and yet he still got to be richest person. So that is the goal: 20% or more.

So if JP Morgan says that we are going to have, on average, 10% for Bitcoin annually? That actually means that they think it is bad, because they think that 10% is bad, and this is not "we changed our minds about it"; this is more like "it is a bad investment that we can beat with stocks if you trust us", so that is why this is still being anti-Bitcoin.

A company has to provide a forecast that has accountability. Once they publish their forecast, and it has to be a rational and realistic. You're right bitcoin could give greater than 10% or 20% or higher return than it, but you can't convince people by saying it'd be giving a very high ROI. I think the better you to read SEC Rule 10b-5 about Reasonable Basis. It will give you

-an insight why a company is not widly forecasting it can give a very huge return.

[d5000]

I've recently calculated the yearly growth of the long term Bitcoin price here. It yielded 20% for 2025-26 (September to September). Note that this is not the spot price but the SMA 200 weekly, i.e. the average price of the last 4 years.

The growth in the last years from January to January was even bigger:

- 2021-22: 110% (8500 to 18000)
- 2022-23: 33% (18000 to 24000)
- 2023-24: 21% (24000 to 29000)
- 2024-25: 48% (29000 to 43000)
- 2025-26: 30%: (43000 to 56000)

So yes, I'd say it is currently too conservative for the next 10 years (as they wrote). The average in the last 5 years was 48%, and even if we ignore the 110% spike in 2021 (which was a product of the very steady high price in 2021) we still are at 32% yearly. But in about 10 years we could arrive to the 10-15% area. So perhaps for the next 25 years, the 10% average growth could be accurate.

I don't think this prediction is negative though. It could attract investors searching a safe store of value, for the first time, if even a conservative bank predicts a ROI way above inflation.