The long term price is at $58000 and is increasing. Would you invest in it?

[YOSHIE]

(I am not planning to implement such a contract myself, although I have investigated a bit how it could be done. But if someone would implement that thing, I'd be really interested!)

I will put aside the existing speculation for now, I will focus on my personal speculation.
In short, I personally will implement Bitcoin investment decisions for the long term, for now I am not emotional.

There are several reasons I want to invest in long-term contracts in Bitcoin, [1] supply is inherently limited [2] Extreme Volatility.
These two factors are enough to make me confident in the long term, I still believe that with high demand for Bitcoin, theoretically in the future it could push the price of Bitcoin to increase.

I still believe Bitcoin investment is not the same as traditional assets, meaning that even though the current market price has touched the $58k level, My speculation will definitely experience high price fluctuations due to volatility, of course this is like what happened previously once every 4 years, 2028 to be precise.

[stompix]

- January 2025: $42,000
- $50,000: July 2025
- January 2026: $56400

June 2026 - 58 000
This is starting to get depressing 

Well, I said already way too many times, the era of huge overnight gains and spikes on orders of magnitude is over, new "investors" must come to their senses and realize that this is no longer a get rich overnght scheme nor it will make you one of the 1% with 10$, it will probably surpass most other investments in terms of pure ROI espcially fiat tied but that's it.

Looking back on this thing, if anyone had told me back in 2020 when we were at 7k that we're going to be at 60k both in 2021 and 2026, I would have asked him what the hell are you smoking!

[alastantiger]

The previous bears have all been only (or almost only) crypto-specific, they have emerged in the presence of the overall economical prosperity, all other prices (like stocks, real estate, art works and so on) have always only increased and increased during the previous crypto bears... Crypto has until now never met the overall economic crash like 2008.... but such is coming sooner or later (rather sooner if we look at for example the P/E ratio of Standard and Poor 500).

Bitcoin might not have partake in the 2008 market crash but it did partake in the 2020 market crash that was caused by the coronavirus and from the look of things Bitcoin did survive although not many assets, stock or companies can probably say they survived it because a lot of them are still struggling up to this day. Bitcoin is going to decline in a market crash that affects the whole economy of the world but one good thing about Bitcoin is that it is going to stand the test of time and you are going to make good profit investing in Bitcoin than investing in the other things. As for the questions about those that will likely invest in Bitcoin I just want to state that if anyone had bought Bitcoin at $58,000 then they would be in profit because the price of Bitcoin is currently trading at $60,300. That is a profit and if we continue to hold we can see future profits too.

[d5000]

I'm updating the long term indicators and also the OP.

The 4-year SMA (208 weeks) is now at $65,000. It crossed the $60,000 mark in late May/early June.

Since the dip in March 2025, it has increased about $20,000 from $45,000 back then. In October 2025 (close to the ATH), i.e. one year ago, the indicator was at roughly $54,000, so despite of the bear market we still had an $11,000, or 20% growth.



Comparing that to gold: The Gold 200 week SMA was at roughly $2000 in October 2024, $2150 in October 2025 and $2400 in October 2026. This means the yearly growth of this indicator was of only 12% in the last year.

This means: Spikes and crashes aside, Bitcoin is still a very nicely performing asset. It's long term price evolution still almost doubles gold's.

The 200-week + 100 week Displaced Moving Average had a value of around $90,000 in late August (see here). Unfortunately dune.com has restricted running queries completely to paid plans which are not cheap ($65 montly upwards). I will look for an alternative.

[atookz]

Comparing that to gold: The Gold 200 week SMA was at roughly $2000 in October 2024, $2150 in October 2025 and $2400 in October 2026. This means the yearly growth of this indicator was of only 12% in the last year.

This means: Spikes and crashes aside, Bitcoin is still a very nicely performing asset. It's long term price evolution still almost doubles gold's.

The 200-week + 100 week Displaced Moving Average had a value of around $90,000 in late August (see here). Unfortunately dune.com has restricted running queries completely to paid plans which are not cheap ($65 montly upwards). I will look for an alternative.

Many thanks for the update. An important note on the 12% vs. 20% comparison: it's just one year, and is highly dependent on the starting year. By your own numbers, the gold SMA rose from ~$2000 to ~$2150 the year before, only about 7.5%, so the ratio would change significantly if you used a different window. Also, part of any SMA’s rise is mechanical: as older, lower-priced data rolls off, the SMA keeps rising. The almost doubles would be more convincing if compared with a 10 year window.

On the DMA: has it been backtested? If the formula is documented, it should be possible to duplicate it based on weekly closing prices in a script or spreadsheet and not require a paid plan on Dune.