A 100% win rate is nearly a reality in prediction markets

[noorman0]

This should serve as a real-world example to shift how many people perceive luck, or perhaps it suggests that prediction markets are no longer a matter of luck, as gambling is. Even insider trading is limited to specific types of predictions; for instance, someone might consistently win only when it comes to political topics. So, here is the strategy (would you believe it?):

After 2 years of trading on Polymarket, this guy still doesn't know what a loss feels like
His win rate is 99%
That means he loses just 1 out of every 100 trades

--snip--

His strategy is ridiculously simple
He buys almost certain outcomes at $0.95-0.99 and waits for them to settle at $1
While everyone else is chasing 100x, he's quietly printing money on the most obvious outcomes

Source

[mikel_012]

This is a valid strategy but do not think it is 100% guarantee and fail proof for everyone

Many times a $0,95 outcome will fail and he will lose everything on that bet. If he wins 5% at every bet, he needs to win 20 bets just to make profit after one loss. In his case it is working because he loses 1 in 100, but what if this changes?

This is like thinking you can bet on 1.05x odds all the time and you will always bank. One day the outcome will be different and you will lose enough to put you many bets behind

[Tungbulu]

This approach is basically picking up pennies from each bet, and to an extent it may seem to be an excellent strategy, not until you hit one crazy loss that wipes off 20-60 previous wins in just one trade. I’ve used similar strategy before, but it gambling, and this only proved to be fun while it lasted, I learned the hard way though. The guy’s 99% streak is indeed impressive but that shouldn’t be mistaken for a perfect approach because it still doesn’t change the low edge rule you know because the moment the edge shrinks, everything might basically fall apart.

[Sim_card]

It's a good strategy but it doesn't mean that it will work out all the time for him. If a gambler isn't greedy looking for a big win, this is a good strategy for him to adopt but the funny thing about this strategy is that if you lose one bet, you will lose it big and all those little profit is gone or you might even be at the losing side at that moment.

[Upgrade00]

Suggestions are that the details of the account are fake, possibly a promotion for this very reason, to be shared around tk geg new players and encourage existing ones.

From the link to the account shared on X, it has deposited over $80 million and has a total PnL of less than $1 million. Anyone with that kind of money can adopt a safe strategy in trading or gambling to turn a profit more often than not and enough to stomach periodicall, big losses. There's no fun playing that way on a thinner bankroll.

[xLays]

This should serve as a real-world example to shift how many people perceive luck, or perhaps it suggests that prediction markets are no longer a matter of luck, as gambling is. Even insider trading is limited to specific types of predictions; for instance, someone might consistently win only when it comes to political topics. So, here is the strategy (would you believe it?):

After 2 years of trading on Polymarket, this guy still doesn't know what a loss feels like
His win rate is 99%
That means he loses just 1 out of every 100 trades

--snip--

His strategy is ridiculously simple
He buys almost certain outcomes at $0.95-0.99 and waits for them to settle at $1
While everyone else is chasing 100x, he's quietly printing money on the most obvious outcomes

Source

Honestly, I doubt that 99% win rate. I tried looking for a link to verify his record, but I couldn't find one.

Can someone share his Polymarket profile so we can check his actual win rate? It would also be nice to see his active predictions so we can follow his trades and see if he's really that good.

If we're only going to believe that tweet without any proof, it sounds like pure bullshit to me. Maybe it's just another post to get more likes and comments (engagement farming)..

Can anyone share link to verify if he really 99% win rate? I'd like to see some proof before believing this claim.

[shinratensei_]

Isn't it is an old story? The bot has been claimed using mispriced on polymarket to predict, then execute it and it feels similar to the arbitrade trading. However, it feels like this account maybe linked to the platform itself for the advertising purpose? I'm wondering if there will be someone can copy trade him, then see what happens.
Unless i hear someone else who does the same thing by copy trade it or using the same trick to bet on prediction market, then get big pnl like him. this story sounds unreal and BS for me.

I only suggest never believing in anything posted on X because sometimes, it's only a click bait. 

[Royal Cap]

Is it really possible to have a 99% win rate? I doubt it. But I checked the news source and saw that it is actually true, I also once thought that I would bet $100 and withdraw it at 0.1x in the Aviator game. In this way, I would make a profit of $1 per bet. But I thought about it a little and realized that I would have to bet 100 times to make a profit of $100. But once the game flies to 0.00x, my $100 would be completely lost. That is I would end up with a loss. But thinking about it, I didn't play anymore.

[Mrbluntzy]

To believe everything you see online is that your own risk, it's not possible that someone can actually have such a high win rate for a long permit of time in gambling unless your are the owner of that business, so you might want to falsify results to convince people that they have the chance to win just like you. If it's actually easy, everyone will use that same strategy to be accumulating just $1 in every trade, instead of waiting for 10x or 100x profit. The strategy might look so interested in theory until you start to apply it in reality.

[gracreavix]

That's beautiful. I think this goes across boards. For trading, if you chase the bigger RR, you might never get there. If you chase the smaller RR, you will rack in money. Same with betting too.

Small odds that's are obvious wins won many times becomes a substantial amount. Chasing after bigger odds can leave the gambler in despair.

That's the same this guy just did. Better strategy is to chase after little. When money many times becomes big. And besides, he is not taking risky bets. In trading, they call it A+ setups. In gambling it's sure odd. I hope I got that correctly.

[Fortify]

This should serve as a real-world example to shift how many people perceive luck, or perhaps it suggests that prediction markets are no longer a matter of luck, as gambling is. Even insider trading is limited to specific types of predictions; for instance, someone might consistently win only when it comes to political topics. So, here is the strategy (would you believe it?):

After 2 years of trading on Polymarket, this guy still doesn't know what a loss feels like
His win rate is 99%
That means he loses just 1 out of every 100 trades

--snip--

His strategy is ridiculously simple
He buys almost certain outcomes at $0.95-0.99 and waits for them to settle at $1
While everyone else is chasing 100x, he's quietly printing money on the most obvious outcomes

Source

You're trying to act like an anomaly is the norm, when it is not. If you go on any Forex trading platform you'll find disclaimers along the lines of "90% of forex traders lose money" in the small print. The fact that less than 1 person out of ten people can do these things consistently should tell you that it's still highly dangerous and you have a much greater chance of losing money than making money.

You actually end on a very salient point and it exposes this whole illusion. If this person is betting on trades at 1.01 odds, it means they are making 1% profit each trade. Which means to double their money they must make 100 of such trades. However if just a couple of their trades go wrong it will wipe out two hundred of trades worth of profits. It's actually an obvious but very weak strategy, hardly something to be congratulated on. The 99% win rate is an illusion because they're betting on 99% odds.

[iv4n]

This guy is crazy!


Source: https://polymarket.com/@sharky6999

It's not only that he made a huge profit chasing low odds, but look at the total volume... this guy is not joking around. And I guess we all know that strategy: with low odds, there's profit only if the stake is high! It's still risky as hell, a few misses mean disaster, but this guy managed to survive two years and make amazing profit.

Well, he founded something that works for him... I guess anyone can try it, but it's a big question will it work for the rest of us.  

[Pandorak]

I’ve thought about a strategy like this before, but i decided against it because i didn’t think it was worth it, given the enormous risks involved. Even though the odds of winning are very high, imagine having to bet a large sum or even all your money, just to make a small profit, a single incorrect prediction could have disastrous consequences. I have to admit that people who adopt this strategy have a strong mindset, not everyone is capable of bearing the risk if they lose or if a prediction doesn’t go as expected. Once again, for me, it’s simply not worth it, even though it’s tempting.

[r_victory]

No matter how great a strategy is and how much profit it can generate, I don't think it can be considered 100% foolproof. It doesn't exist, and I continue to believe it's a matter of luck; it's about choosing an outcome and hoping it's the right one. There's no strategy that can beat luck in a prediction market.

[Mr_Brilliant$]

I have seen this script before. Same way gambling too got it's hype. Someone always making good bets. And people thought it was too easy and believed they could make a fortune out of it. Same script used on two different things. I am referring to your headline.

Local man makes this certain amount of money to win this. Everyone decides to do it and think they have a chance. Only for them to be miserable. This sounds different. Using that same line won't work. So they chanced it and but sounds the same. This is now about a man being  dedicated to one strategy for years and wins approximately 99% of the time. It's just one person. Watch how the crowd will fall this this and think you have a chance too.

[CucakRowo]

I agree that systematic strategy plays greater role here than luck. But in my view, it would not be accurate to call this knowing future in advance.

This is basically about securing small margin on almost certain outcome. Betting on high probability outcome yields more inferior margin. But reliability is more elevated.

You could call this Endgame Sweep, where you buy in at 95 to 99 cent and wait for final resolution. So, technique is not new and it is not some secret magic either.

[OgNasty]

Prediction markets do seem setup for automated trading services to sweep up the crumbs like this. If it wasn’t a near 100% win rate it probably wouldn’t even be profitable to have a strategy like this. I suppose it also serves a purpose in balancing the market. A bad luck streak could destroy a bankroll quickly though.

[Cryptomultiplier]

It's a good strategy but it doesn't mean that it will work out all the time for him. If a gambler isn't greedy looking for a big win, this is a good strategy for him to adopt but the funny thing about this strategy is that if you lose one bet, you will lose it big and all those little profit is gone or you might even be at the losing side at that moment.

The big loss might just be a very rare 1% outcome that wipes out everything they have in their account because as it seems, this gambler is more adept to a high yield savings pattern, while exploiting market pricing inefficiencies or extreme probabilities just to make steady small gain.
This proves why I believe predictions market is different from online or even offline gambling because here we see that lucky isn't involved but more of strategic thinking and cunniness.

[Agbe]

This strategy also works in other predictions too. In sports and event prediction, low odds have the probability to win always but that is not also a guarantee to win always,we also need luck and from the person, the Op quoted had luck for winning always and had 1% loss. And one thing in this small odd gambling, you will be tempted to stake with big amount one day because you thought, you are winning and you will win even with the big odd. And in that day the trusted strong team or the well known political event you know they will give a big win will cut the ticket.

So if anyone is contented with the small odds I will advise him to continue and don't allow greed to lure him to predict huge amount and loss all in one prediction.

[acroman08]

Good for him, but seeing how much he has to bet to get a decent return, it is still a pretty risky strategy. As OgNasty mentioned, a bad luck streak could quickly destroy his bankroll. Also, it looks like he likes to bet on crypto prices.

Can anyone share link to verify if he really 99% win rate? I'd like to see some proof before believing this claim.

Here's a link to his stats "https://polymarketanalytics.com/traders/0x751a2b86cab503496efd325c8344e10159349ea1#positions". Someone posted that on X. Here's the link to his polymarket profile "https://polymarket.com/@sharky6999", iv4n shared that.