A 100% win rate is nearly a reality in prediction markets

[mak013]

This should serve as a real-world example to shift how many people perceive luck, or perhaps it suggests that prediction markets are no longer a matter of luck, as gambling is. Even insider trading is limited to specific types of predictions; for instance, someone might consistently win only when it comes to political topics. So, here is the strategy (would you believe it?):

~

Source

Go ahead, try it yourself - I'll have a laugh at the results.
Sure, someone can win 100% of their bets at low odds. The catch is that sooner or later they'll lose - and then again, and again.
And here's the real problem: it might work for one in a million. You sure you'll be that one?
Sounds like a cheap marketing trick to me. I'd rather use my head.

[Charles-Tim]

I just hope that some people will not think that chasing $0.95-0.99 is 100% guaranteed. There is still probability that the bet can be lost, but the chance of it to be lost is only little.

There was a day that I bet on 0.95 and I was almost lost the bet. I later won it, but I was almost lost the bet. I think that has been the last time I visited a prediction market last.

[Hazink]

No matter how great a strategy is and how much profit it can generate, I don't think it can be considered 100% foolproof. It doesn't exist, and I continue to believe it's a matter of luck; it's about choosing an outcome and hoping it's the right one. There's no strategy that can beat luck in a prediction market.

This guy's story is the same as what we usually experience in sports betting, with little some believe the lowest odds can give you high chances of winning and some people, after they have practice and managed to win a few straight wins, they will consider it a perfect strategy, but I'm also always of the opinion that no strategy can guarantee 100% win some can increase the winning chances, but it's not enough to follow it blindly like it's possible to win 99% of the time in prediction.

[Smack That Ace]

This should serve as a real-world example to shift how many people perceive luck, or perhaps it suggests that prediction markets are no longer a matter of luck, as gambling is. Even insider trading is limited to specific types of predictions; for instance, someone might consistently win only when it comes to political topics. So, here is the strategy (would you believe it?):

Does 99% win rate necessarily mean profit? I honestly don't get it.

If you buy at 97 cent and win then your profit is 3 cent. But If you lose then your loss would be 97 cent.

If i am not wrong, you need to win about 97% of the time just to break even.

So, with 99% win rate, your average profit per trade comes to only about 2 cent. lol

I want to point out one big loss will wipe out many of your wins.

[lionheart78]

This should serve as a real-world example to shift how many people perceive luck, or perhaps it suggests that prediction markets are no longer a matter of luck, as gambling is. Even insider trading is limited to specific types of predictions; for instance, someone might consistently win only when it comes to political topics. So, here is the strategy (would you believe it?):

~

Source

Go ahead, try it yourself - I'll have a laugh at the results.
Sure, someone can win 100% of their bets at low odds. The catch is that sooner or later they'll lose - and then again, and again.

It is not 100% anymore if they lose, so even with low odds a 100% win rate is impossible.  It is indeed nearly a reality, but it is not actually the reality.

And here's the real problem: it might work for one in a million. You sure you'll be that one?

The strategy of the account shown by @OP can be done by multiple people by sharing the strategy or giving forecast of his bet.  This way if the account win, those who follows win

Sounds like a cheap marketing trick to me. I'd rather use my head.

It does sound like a marketing ploy but it was backed by the account statistics.  The question would be how authentic the account is and is not manipulated by the platform itself to be used for this kind of marketing ploy.

[salad daging]

It's not only that he made a huge profit chasing low odds, but look at the total volume... this guy is not joking around. And I guess we all know that strategy: with low odds, there's profit only if the stake is high! It's still risky as hell, a few misses mean disaster, but this guy managed to survive two years and make amazing profit.

Meaning he doesn't just rely on Insiders to bet on politics, but sees a good strategic point to make, especially for two years it's a long time to be consistent, maybe if we get tired of betting like this.

Well, he founded something that works for him... I guess anyone can try it, but it's a big question will it work for the rest of us.  

It will not be the same even if it follows his strategy, after all the strategy he uses is not fully publicized to the media, so we do not know what the real strategy is, not what is explained in the tweet.

[Dogedegen]

Statistical exceptions exist for many reasons, one of which are unique tactics and methods. Just because someone is doing it somewhere, that does not mean that you can just replicate what they are doing. This is a common mistake of people who are not able to develop their own ways for success, they try to imitate others and this almost always fails. So many automated on chain bots have been put to follow trades and all kinds of things. It is a sad and pathetic thing that people go to because they are greedy and not smart enough. Do not share guaranteed get rich stories, even if they are real because you will not be able to replicate the success. Gambling is for entertainment, not for chasing riches.

Honestly, I doubt that 99% win rate. I tried looking for a link to verify his record, but I couldn't find one.

Can someone share his Polymarket profile so we can check his actual win rate? It would also be nice to see his active predictions so we can follow his trades and see if he's really that good.

If we're only going to believe that tweet without any proof, it sounds like pure bullshit to me. Maybe it's just another post to get more likes and comments (engagement farming)..

Can anyone share link to verify if he really 99% win rate? I'd like to see some proof before believing this claim.

What do you mean you can't find it? It is linked directly in the X post. https://polymarket.com/@sharky6999

[promise444c5]

There’s high chance it fails, once you have one or 2 loss literally your entire profit can be wiped . If it’s really that easy thing to do and profitable, the prediction market would have gone bankrupt long ago. I’m sure a lot of people have thought about it but most likely didn’t work.. Who knows it might work for you.. Yes you!

Suggestions are that the details of the account are fake, possibly a promotion for this very reason, to be shared around tk geg new players and encourage existing ones.

I saw that too.. looks fake to me but some people post his profile anyway. I’m not surprised with number of delusional people on X, it’s quite normal even if this isn’t entirely about advertisement.

[CryptoBuds]

This should serve as a real-world example to shift how many people perceive luck, or perhaps it suggests that prediction markets are no longer a matter of luck, as gambling is. Even insider trading is limited to specific types of predictions; for instance, someone might consistently win only when it comes to political topics. So, here is the strategy (would you believe it?)

If this data comes solely from short term crypto market then I could believe it. But in long term, near certain political or event markets outcome should be different. Actually without any wallet address, this is just a claim.

You know, Polymarket's data is public on chain, so it can be verified. Moreover, 99% win rate shown by trackers is often fabricated figure. It is possible to achieve 99% win rate on leaderboard by repeatedly buying in market that is all but certain to move in one's favor. So strategy should be evaluated based on entry price and size of loss, not by its win rate.

[Davidvictorson]

This should serve as a real-world example to shift how many people perceive luck, or perhaps it suggests that prediction markets are no longer a matter of luck, as gambling is. Even insider trading is limited to specific types of predictions; for instance, someone might consistently win only when it comes to political topics. So, here is the strategy (would you believe it?):

After 2 years of trading on Polymarket, this guy still doesn't know what a loss feels like
His win rate is 99%
That means he loses just 1 out of every 100 trades

--snip--

His strategy is ridiculously simple
He buys almost certain outcomes at $0.95-0.99 and waits for them to settle at $1
While everyone else is chasing 100x, he's quietly printing money on the most obvious outcomes

This is quite interesting and I’m wondering if any other person would apply this his strategy if they would have the same outcome.
I also wonder how often he wagers on the prediction market because with frequency comes more losses, and with less frequency in his case, may bring consistent wins.
I really don’t do prediction market so I may not be able to tell as much but these are just my thoughts.

[tiCeR]

This should serve as a real-world example to shift how many people perceive luck, or perhaps it suggests that prediction markets are no longer a matter of luck, as gambling is. Even insider trading is limited to specific types of predictions; for instance, someone might consistently win only when it comes to political topics. So, here is the strategy (would you believe it?):

After 2 years of trading on Polymarket, this guy still doesn't know what a loss feels like
His win rate is 99%
That means he loses just 1 out of every 100 trades

--snip--

His strategy is ridiculously simple
He buys almost certain outcomes at $0.95-0.99 and waits for them to settle at $1
While everyone else is chasing 100x, he's quietly printing money on the most obvious outcomes

Source

It's just not as we have read here in the forum about this one guy who lost an incredible bet because odds were so much in his favor. But that is not the point in the end. He just needs one losing streak of seemingly impossible events going against him and his PnL would look differently again. It may work out, but usually odds work against you in the long run. And if this is the case, it also comes into play that people will discover this opportunity and destroy that "hidden" gap for profit. Markets rebalance over time and for the potential profit in any market, it means a race to the bottom as everyone wants to be the fastest to get in.

[alegotardo]

This should serve as a real-world example to shift how many people perceive luck, or perhaps it suggests that prediction markets are no longer a matter of luck, as gambling is. Even insider trading is limited to specific types of predictions; for instance, someone might consistently win only when it comes to political topics. So, here is the strategy (would you believe it?):

After 2 years of trading on Polymarket, this guy still doesn't know what a loss feels like
His win rate is 99%
That means he loses just 1 out of every 100 trades

--snip--

His strategy is ridiculously simple
He buys almost certain outcomes at $0.95-0.99 and waits for them to settle at $1
While everyone else is chasing 100x, he's quietly printing money on the most obvious outcomes

Source

Man, I think this is wrong in the long run.... I agree that it is possible to wait for a liquidation and get it right in the vast majority of these picks, but this can never be called consistent profit, much less an absence of risk... you can not confuse accuracy with profitability because when you reduce the risk, you also reduce the return on the bets.

Consider the following scenario:
Betting $ 0.99 to make a profit of $0.01 per win... if you lose one out of 100 bets, you will have already lost all your profit and still run the risk of ending up in the red.

So, the strategy is not to win almost every time, it is to buy a bet for less than what its true probability would justify.

[Hispo]

It consider those strategies to be pretty much a double edges sword, in my opinion.
If one chases low odds, then one needs to have a quite big bankroll in order to make all the operation worth of one's time.

I have seen many stories like this one on Twitter and Instagram, on how there are some people who has managed to become professional bettors on polymarkets with low odds and huge volume. But nobody talks about the thousands or millions who have tried to do exactly the same with Polymarket API and their own agent and have failed in the process. People usually pay attention to those who are getting rich and ignore losers, hence we become biased.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

This guy is crazy!


Source: https://polymarket.com/@sharky6999

It's not only that he made a huge profit chasing low odds, but look at the total volume... this guy is not joking around. And I guess we all know that strategy: with low odds, there's profit only if the stake is high! It's still risky as hell, a few misses mean disaster, but this guy managed to survive two years and make amazing profit.

Well, he founded something that works for him... I guess anyone can try it, but it's a big question will it work for the rest of us.  

No, it won't.

On the one hand, and as mak013 says, it sounds like a marketing ploy to me.

I think if this strategy becomes popular, there’ll be loads of people trying to copy it who don’t have the same talent or luck, and the moment they lose once, the whole system will fall apart. I reckon this sort of strategy will try to catch on, but I wouldn't be surprised if in the future the prediction markets will put a stop to it by limiting the winners, just like bookies do.

[red4slash]

This should serve as a real-world example to shift how many people perceive luck, or perhaps it suggests that prediction markets are no longer a matter of luck, as gambling is. Even insider trading is limited to specific types of predictions; for instance, someone might consistently win only when it comes to political topics. So, here is the strategy (would you believe it?):

He plays consistently that's the point because looking at what is written in the tweet you linked we can see his focus is not on big profits directly but small but stable profits and this obviously cannot be easily done by some gamblers.

Sometimes we always focus on big profits which makes the condition a little complicated but this gambler is firm with the stance taken where his target is clear so apart from the choices he makes it is always in good probability in this case he is also quite good at controlling emotions in gambling which sometimes this is difficult for most gamblers to do.
In the end Luck is still in control but the mindset of this gambler is different because he does not always cling to luck but he runs a gambling strategy that is very difficult to follow other gamblers.

[obuoma]

In a game of chance,  it is absolutely difficult to get a 100% certainty, the very thought of it is even a contradiction. The player you referenced to have achieved 99% win rate is simply following high probability events which is why he got such high win rate. He will be deceiving himself if he feels that such trend will continue forever because something can change and one loss will clear his doubt. He should not allow overconfidence make him to ignore risk management.

[Franctoshi]

This is a valid strategy but do not think it is 100% guarantee and fail proof for everyone

Many times a $0,95 outcome will fail and he will lose everything on that bet. If he wins 5% at every bet, he needs to win 20 bets just to make profit after one loss. In his case it is working because he loses 1 in 100, but what if this changes?

This is like thinking you can bet on 1.05x odds all the time and you will always bank. One day the outcome will be different and you will lose enough to put you many bets behind

I strongly agree with your point. For me, I wouldn't take this risk because such a risk is not worth it because certainly he will put in a huge amount of money for possible profits. Yes, the strategy is working for him now, and it seems fine or perfect, but just as you have said, if he encounters one or two losses, then this strategy will be a mess, and most likely I bet he will abodon it. I take moderate risk that is worth it; if I win, I win, and if I lose, I lose.

[davis196]

After 2 years of trading on Polymarket, this guy still doesn't know what a loss feels like
His win rate is 99%
That means he loses just 1 out of every 100 trades

--snip--

His strategy is ridiculously simple
He buys almost certain outcomes at $0.95-0.99 and waits for them to settle at $1
While everyone else is chasing 100x, he's quietly printing money on the most obvious outcomes

It's like sports betting, where you bet on teams like Real Madrid to achieve an easy win against an underdog at very low odds.
If this method actually worked in real life, everyone would be betting the same way and everyone would have such a big win rate. Almost nobody would lose, which doesn't make any sense, because gambling and trading are zero sum games and you simply cannot have 95% winners and 5% losers on the market. This seems more like an "infotainment" article promoting Polymarket in a sneaky way. These prediction markets have really good marketing teams.

[Betwrong]

This is a valid strategy but do not think it is 100% guarantee and fail proof for everyone

Many times a $0,95 outcome will fail and he will lose everything on that bet. If he wins 5% at every bet, he needs to win 20 bets just to make profit after one loss. In his case it is working because he loses 1 in 100, but what if this changes?

This is like thinking you can bet on 1.05x odds all the time and you will always bank. One day the outcome will be different and you will lose enough to put you many bets behind

I agree. Seeing that his biggest win is $35k I can imagine - he's risking big money, at least once in a while. You can't win a lot without risking a lot, right? And "sometimes you eat the bear, and sometimes the bear eats you," as they say. It’s only a matter of time before we see the opposite news about the guy. But it is also possible that he will never lose. I think it can happen to one in a billion, and he could be exactly that one.

[eisen33]

This should serve as a real-world example to shift how many people perceive luck, or perhaps it suggests that prediction markets are no longer a matter of luck, as gambling is. Even insider trading is limited to specific types of predictions; for instance, someone might consistently win only when it comes to political topics. So, here is the strategy (would you believe it?):

After 2 years of trading on Polymarket, this guy still doesn't know what a loss feels like
His win rate is 99%
That means he loses just 1 out of every 100 trades

--snip--

His strategy is ridiculously simple
He buys almost certain outcomes at $0.95-0.99 and waits for them to settle at $1
While everyone else is chasing 100x, he's quietly printing money on the most obvious outcomes

Source

I believe this strategy can work, but at the same time, I'm convinced that you need to have a large bankroll to bet this way. There are a few challenges, because you're risking a lot of money, and one day, a loss could be just as large and painful. On the other hand, if he's smart enough to avoid getting involved in any risky bets, then this strategy could work for him.