A 100% win rate is nearly a reality in prediction markets

[noorman0]

I am not impressed by his performance, my question is, can he maintain this performance over a long period of time?

Two years is, in my view, not a short period; it exceeds the backtesting requirements for evaluating a trading strategy. As long as the system doesn't flag it as a loophole and it remains profitable, this person is justified in sticking with their strategy. The pushback is to be expected, perhaps he simply don't want others doing the same thing. A strategy often stops performing well once too many people start using it. Lol

[xenomorfo]

This should serve as a real-world example to shift how many people perceive luck, or perhaps it suggests that prediction markets are no longer a matter of luck, as gambling is. Even insider trading is limited to specific types of predictions; for instance, someone might consistently win only when it comes to political topics. So, here is the strategy (would you believe it?):

After 2 years of trading on Polymarket, this guy still doesn't know what a loss feels like
His win rate is 99%
That means he loses just 1 out of every 100 trades

--snip--

His strategy is ridiculously simple
He buys almost certain outcomes at $0.95-0.99 and waits for them to settle at $1
While everyone else is chasing 100x, he's quietly printing money on the most obvious outcomes

Source

I didn't understand and it doesn't make sense, if you earn so little you invest more time in doing this: maybe by simply working you would make even more money
It seems to me like the Martin Gala trick to get people into casinos and get referral links with percentages, forgive me in the world no one gives anything away.

[Queen uloma]

I believe we’re seeing an example of a lucky person here. However, this doesn’t rule out the possibility that one day he’ll be unlucky and will have to make up for losses over the next 100 bets. Yes, this "small‑scale" strategy works. But it’s not a gambler’s strategy - it’s a strategy for making money. In other words, this person isn’t a gambler.

Personally, I just don’t find it interesting to collect things grain by grain (especially with the risk of losing the result of long‑term work one day, which is much more disappointing than losing an amount of money that you previously won without any effort). But as they say, to each their own.

Luck may be on your side today and  still win little by little but it doesn’t mean that the luck will eventually continue forever. One bad game can make you lose everything that you have gathered for a long time. The problem is that, when a person has win several times, he may start believing that he has understand the system, forgetting that gambling doesn’t guarantee outcome.

For me, I think gambling is suppose to be for entertainment not another means of building wealth, because the pain of losing money that you have gathered for months is far better than the joy of winning.  That’s why it’s important to set limits and don’t allow little wins to make you take big risks.

[sompitonov]

Two years is, in my view, not a short period; it exceeds the backtesting requirements for evaluating a trading strategy. As long as the system doesn't flag it as a loophole and it remains profitable, this person is justified in sticking with their strategy. The pushback is to be expected, perhaps he simply don't want others doing the same thing. A strategy often stops performing well once too many people start using it. Lol

Every profitable strategy will eventually come to an end, but that does not mean it will stop working altogether. Consider poker, for instance: some professionals have adapted so well that they have remained profitable for 15 years, making it their primary livelihood. The same can be true for prediction markets though only a tiny fraction of participants possess the necessary expertise combined with enough luck to sustain long-term profitability. Inevitably, however, there will come a moment when their resilience is tested and they hit a downswing. It is a significant challenge to endure such a period a feat few can manage, as even seasoned professionals often find it incredibly difficult.

[DrBeer]

"The perfect model"
But there are a lot of nuances. First, there's the size of the winnings. They're negligible. Second, as everyone says - with such an "edge," a single loss wipes out 20 wins.
Honestly, with that kind of success, you might as well make money trading USDT, with its regular fluctuations of one-hundredth of a dollar

[stepwilli]

I am not impressed by his performance, my question is, can he maintain this performance over a long period of time?

Two years is, in my view, not a short period; it exceeds the backtesting requirements for evaluating a trading strategy. As long as the system doesn't flag it as a loophole and it remains profitable, this person is justified in sticking with their strategy. The pushback is to be expected, perhaps he simply don't want others doing the same thing. A strategy often stops performing well once too many people start using it. Lol

This is the reason, I will not categorize prediction markets into gambling. It must be kind of trading or very much similar to sports betting (poker is another thing in this list). So, no wonder on remaining profitable for years. It is a skill and it will not fade out over the time or when casinos upgrade their algorithm. The only possibility to stop such people is, casinos may blacklist them with the reason of investigating any possible abusing.

I know people who hit more than 90% in predicting sports events. They follow those sports and well aware of all strength and weakness of all players as a team as well. It means, when you are good at basics, you can sustain for years where your skill plays a role whereas if you rely on your luck factor, you cannot even sustain for a week itself.

[hedgeh0g]

"The perfect model"
But there are a lot of nuances. First, there's the size of the winnings. They're negligible. Second, as everyone says - with such an "edge," a single loss wipes out 20 wins.
Honestly, with that kind of success, you might as well make money trading USDT, with its regular fluctuations of one-hundredth of a dollar

Whenever I see someone claiming there’s a 100% guaranteed way to make money, I can’t help but laugh. It’s amusing how willing people are to believe just about anything especially when they convince themselves that a particular method is their ticket to getting rich. The truth is, you simply need to think critically this is especially important for newcomers with no prior experience and learn from the mistakes of others. While such a guaranteed method might theoretically exist, I have no interest in any betting strategy where a single loss could wipe out all previous winnings; as it stands, it just seems like a complete waste of time.

[Grace333]

Even in the poly market there's nothing you can apply that gives a guaranteed win. I don't really know much about the polymarket because I only use sportbooks and casinos but this strategy is simply going for the lowest value that has a high chance of playing out but you need to understand that it isn't really sure. This is the same thing as low value odds in sports betting that gamblers stake on thinking that this guarantees profits but a lot of times those low values are traps.

[Mahiyammahi]

Just for testing this strategy, I started to follow this strategy where 95% winning chance is guaranteed, but the profit was so much little. So, by 20 trades, you are making profit of one trade. Two or three consecutive losses can deplete your portfolio. This don't work usually unless you are a bit lucky.

I have traded in 5-minute BTC prediction on Polymarket. I was in a great profit, started with $100 and moved to $1,000. It was almost 10x, but what I said earlier that two or three consecutive prediction losses can make it heavier. So, eventually my strategy failed. Although I have quite early before everything losses, I was able to keep some of the profit along with my investment.

[Johnlomape]

Even in the poly market there's nothing you can apply that gives a guaranteed win. I don't really know much about the polymarket because I only use sportbooks and casinos but this strategy is simply going for the lowest value that has a high chance of playing out but you need to understand that it isn't really sure. This is the same thing as low value odds in sports betting that gamblers stake on thinking that this guarantees profits but a lot of times those low values are traps.

Greed has been known as one of the main problem of gamblers when trying to make money from their bets.
The reason why so many of us are losing money to betting is not because we don't have a good strategy or prediction ability but the problem has been greed to make huge profits from betting and no one wants to start gradually.

If gamblers can takeaway the greed and bet without greed to make quick profit, we are not going to have any problem again about losing bets that do happen consistently in most cases. The player was able to make profits because he is not chasing 10x or more as profits.

[Josefjix]

But there are a lot of nuances. First, there's the size of the winnings. They're negligible. Second, as everyone says - with such an "edge," a single loss wipes out 20 wins.
Honestly, with that kind of success, you might as well make money trading USDT, with its regular fluctuations of one-hundredth of a dollar

It's one of the reasons why winning much has to do with higher stakes too, from what OP said, that targeting prediction with $0.95-0.99 is way too small. This needs to be staked with high sum to get good profits and I'm just wondering how much the guy with the strategy is using, maybe he might be a whale.

[Agbe]

Just for testing this strategy, I started to follow this strategy where 95% winning chance is guaranteed, but the profit was so much little. So, by 20 trades, you are making profit of one trade. Two or three consecutive losses can deplete your portfolio. This don't work usually unless you are a bit lucky.

I have traded in 5-minute BTC prediction on Polymarket. I was in a great profit, started with $100 and moved to $1,000. It was almost 10x, but what I said earlier that two or three consecutive prediction losses can make it heavier. So, eventually my strategy failed. Although I have quite early before everything losses, I was able to keep some of the profit along with my investment.

That is very true looking at how small those figures are , one has to use a reasonable sum of money so that the profit can be big tfo a large extent. If not I don't,see the need of such trades or even prediction for those into prediction, When it comes to gambling what people are after is their potential profit hence the reason why most people always look at those big multipliers. So the example of the person who has achieved 99% success rate trading in polymarket is very difficult for the everyday trader who is after big profit.

[Tungbulu]

Bro that guy is incredible is all I can say. I just confirmed it myself and the profits are real. When I see such dudes, I only wish there is a way to reach them and attempt to get their predictions. Sometimes we just have to admit people are good at what they're doing and not think the opposite. 2 years is long-term enough to prove that his strategy is very effective. I only have a feeling he has some insider information that allows him spot those markets and take advantage of them on time.

A strategy may be working pretty well for someone, but have you thought about whether it’s really a guarantee that it may work exactly the same way for you if you copied it? When people come develop strategies, most of the times, they are strategies that aligns with their personal goals and positions, it’s just like a personalized strategy, not like others can’t copy it, but it just may not yield same results for them.

I remember a certain time that I picked interest in trading and decided to sign up for one these brokers and start with copy trading, I checked the list of traders there, and trust me they were all incredible traders with long term profits, I though it was just as simply as copying their trades and I took can benefit from their strategy, but things didn’t go as I expected, I ran out if the market with disappointment and losses. That made realize that copying people’s approach or strategy isn’t a guarantee that you would get the same results, regardless of how good they are.

[Smartprofit]

I have very mixed feelings about this betting strategy. 🙋

On the one hand, it all seems very irrational. Making all these numerous bets seems to require a huge amount of analytical work. Personally, I'd be too lazy for that.

Furthermore, with this betting tactic, just one mistake could lead this person to disaster. The fact that he's made almost no mistakes for two years means nothing. It's never too late to make a mistake...

His profitability is very low. He's freezing his money in the system (which is risky in itself), but is it worth it? Perhaps staking would bring him the same income, but with lower risks?

On the other hand, he's generating a huge turnover on the Polymarket platform. If this platform ever issues its own token, he'll be a big winner, practically hitting the jackpot. And we'll read about it in a new thread on our forum! About what a great guy he is! 💁

[Ever-young]

A hundred percent win rate feels like a magic and aswell nearly impossible. This strategy is a good one though but aswell all risky, imagine losing in such predictions, that’ll be a massive win but the win is little compared to about that could be lost.

Though I still believe gambling is a game of luck, and everyone are utilizing their strategies. I still believe someone else has done this and didn’t work for him. Because imagine having a regular sure odd where the rate of wining is 1% away from hundred, even with the low profits people will keep hopping in so I’ll say congratulations to that dude that’s actually his luck.

[Mia Chloe]

This should serve as a real-world example to shift how many people perceive luck, or perhaps it suggests that prediction markets are no longer a matter of luck, as gambling is. Even insider trading is limited to specific types of predictions; for instance, someone might consistently win only when it comes to political topics. So, here is the strategy (would you believe it?):

This gave me one of the biggest laughs today actually. 100% win rate? Lol.... Assuming every single bet is just a 50%. Win and loss chance the chances of you winning 10 games in a row is actually as small as (0.5)¹⁰ which is small as hell. Y'all shouldn't be deceived by win rate math manipulations.

In probability the smaller the values most times theore impossible it actually is. These guys won't come online to blow their cover if they had insider info every single time they bet.

[rachael9385]

It's a good strategy but it doesn't mean that it will work out all the time for him. If a gambler isn't greedy looking for a big win, this is a good strategy for him to adopt but the funny thing about this strategy is that if you lose one bet, you will lose it big and all those little profit is gone or you might even be at the losing side at that moment.

You are right, this strategy isn't expected to work every single time, there is nothing that is certain when it comes to betting, although this is the poly market that's regarded to be trading but technically it's actually the same thing as gambling or betting. People stake high amounts of money on such bets because there's a high chance of winning but I see it as insanity because why would you risk a lot for  so little?

Just for testing this strategy, I started to follow this strategy where 95% winning chance is guaranteed, but the profit was so much little. So, by 20 trades, you are making profit of one trade. Two or three consecutive losses can deplete your portfolio. This don't work usually unless you are a bit lucky.

Risking a lot of money and making a little profit is what makes the strategy not worth applying, there are no guarantees of winning so it's even too risky to think of staking too much or amounts of money that you cannot afford to lose on such bets.

[2stout]

Another adaptation that could work and be worthwhile is volume betting.  Let's say one bets $50 everyday of small bets ($1) x 365 days x 0.99 win rate would equal $18,067.5/year.  The other cost- time consideration.  If one is spending an 1 or 2 hours a day to make $49.50 (99% of $50), then that may be worthwhile.  If spending more time than that, then it would depend on one's cost of living.

[lombok]

Risking a lot of money and making a little profit is what makes the strategy not worth applying, there are no guarantees of winning so it's even too risky to think of staking too much or amounts of money that you cannot afford to lose on such bets.

Counting on a system that is likely to bring success only in 95% of cases is one of the reasons for catastrophic losses in finances. Small earnings from numerous wins may be completely offset by just two or three successive losses. It doesn’t make sense to invest a lot of money into earning some extra cents. The difference between possible income and probable loss is too great for such approach to become dangerous and lead to complete bankruptcy. Counting on luck for escaping successive losses is far from being logical when dealing with your own property. The possibility of getting ruined financially should be one of the main considerations when deciding not to use the manipulative method of gambling. Using one’s entire savings in order to gamble without taking into consideration the loss factor is deadly and destructive.

[ArabBTC]

This approach is basically picking up pennies from each bet, and to an extent it may seem to be an excellent strategy, not until you hit one crazy loss that wipes off 20-60 previous wins in just one trade. I’ve used similar strategy before, but it gambling, and this only proved to be fun while it lasted, I learned the hard way though. The guy’s 99% streak is indeed impressive but that shouldn’t be mistaken for a perfect approach because it still doesn’t change the low edge rule you know because the moment the edge shrinks, everything might basically fall apart.

Well i have tried different gambling strategies both using small stake on multiple odds and using large stakes on small odds but from my experience none is safe, my only observation was that when i used large stakes my winning ratio became high, sometimes i could win 15 times in a row, and i played similar odds of which by the 15 time i must have already won past my stake and started making profit, if you lose one bet out of 15 you will still be in profit, especially since there is room for cash out while using large stakes, so i feel that i prefer using large stakes on small odds and be gradually accumulating my profits rather than accumulating multiple odds and end up losing.