A 100% win rate is nearly a reality in prediction markets

[Miles2006]

Quite an interesting strategy that works best for the person in the position, while everyone is doubting, honestly I do believe when many claim a high winning rate I mean why will anyone lie with such matter? Except they run ads, the strategy focuses more on little odds while the profit in return is enough.
The reason why this strategy is not commonly used, basically people go for high chance though using this strategy can’t determine a frequent win as many tried same pattern, this strategy can’t be the only strategy use in achieving a 100% win as claimed.

[Tungbulu]

Well i have tried different gambling strategies both using small stake on multiple odds and using large stakes on small odds but from my experience none is safe, my only observation was that when i used large stakes my winning ratio became high, sometimes i could win 15 times in a row, and i played similar odds of which by the 15 time i must have already won past my stake and started making profit, if you lose one bet out of 15 you will still be in profit, especially since there is room for cash out while using large stakes, so i feel that i prefer using large stakes on small odds and be gradually accumulating my profits rather than accumulating multiple odds and end up losing.

Yeah, those are also one of my favorite strategies. Using a good strategy with that approach could make someone gradually accumulate some wins. But what mostly spoils this approach is greed and lack of discipline, when a gambler has these traits, they may end up feeling invincible, which could push them into increasing their bets to an amount that’ll be too much for them to lose, and when they eventually lose, all the little profits they’ve gathered automatically feels liked a total waste.

[alani123]

That strategy has its risk too. To be able to win these markets in the long term is perfectly feasible with a very high win rate, but it's also not impossible to lose two or three in a short timespan. And then what? You're out of a year's profits.

Low profit strategies in a prediction market would be feasible if it wasn't for polymarket also being so unreliable at how it closes markets, which oftentimes is an absolute disgrace.

[Saint-loup]

This guy is crazy!


Source: https://polymarket.com/@sharky6999

It's not only that he made a huge profit chasing low odds, but look at the total volume... this guy is not joking around. And I guess we all know that strategy: with low odds, there's profit only if the stake is high! It's still risky as hell, a few misses mean disaster, but this guy managed to survive two years and make amazing profit.

Well, he founded something that works for him... I guess anyone can try it, but it's a big question will it work for the rest of us.  

IMO it doesn't do that randomly, otherwise it would me there are many markets quoting $0.95 or $0.96 while their actual price should $0.99. Because only markets quoting 0.99 should be able to give 1% loss. But what is the most surprising is to only make good pick, that is to say profitable ones and not picking bad ones. Because even if markets are not efficient there is no reason to get a bad pricing in only one way. There must be many markets quoting 0.97, 0.98 or 0.99 with a real price of 0.95 or below.

[Julien_Olynpic]

In reality, this is a foolish strategy based on an inability or unwillingness to count money. Or on a desire for many wins rather than a large profit. You can have 99 wins out of 100, but one loss can wipe out all your previous wins. Incidentally, some fraudulent strategies used by tipsters for novice bettors are based on this cognitive bias. A tipster approaches you with an offer to sell winning predictions and shows statistics showing that 90 out of 100 predictions are winning. But they modestly forget to mention that the 10 losing predictions completely wiped out their profits and took money out of their pocket.

[MAAManda]

What he did was the same as choosing odds between @1,01 & @1,05 in sports betting, given that high probability, it's entirely possible for him to have such an insane win rate. However, that doesn't apply to me, because for me, gambling is an entertainment & challenge. In fact, even the lowest odds I have ever taken were no less than @1,20. That means 80% winning chance.

[Adiljutt156]

Greed has been known as one of the main problem of gamblers when trying to make money from their bets.
The reason why so many of us are losing money to betting is not because we don't have a good strategy or prediction ability but the problem has been greed to make huge profits from betting and no one wants to start gradually.

If gamblers can takeaway the greed and bet without greed to make quick profit, we are not going to have any problem again about losing bets that do happen consistently in most cases. The player was able to make profits because he is not chasing 10x or more as profits.

Due to an emotional mindset, greed increased, which can be killed, but it's never been easy because people always want to have quick riches or big profits from gambling. They have always done things that increase their losses, and they have never been able to recover them.

Many strategies and other methods are used, but all end on the wrong side because gambling never gives enough space to have a good end; chasing big never helps; just always try to maintain yourself on a level where things never cross limits and increase your losses. In the last few years, too many strategies were introduced, mostly ending with big losses, and people have never been able to back because they emotionally try to become rich, which has never been easily possible for any gambler who always tries to enjoy with small funds.

[POPOLUV]

This approach is basically picking up pennies from each bet, and to an extent it may seem to be an excellent strategy, not until you hit one crazy loss that wipes off 20-60 previous wins in just one trade. I’ve used similar strategy before, but it gambling, and this only proved to be fun while it lasted, I learned the hard way though. The guy’s 99% streak is indeed impressive but that shouldn’t be mistaken for a perfect approach because it still doesn’t change the low edge rule you know because the moment the edge shrinks, everything might basically fall apart.

Well i have tried different gambling strategies both using small stake on multiple odds and using large stakes on small odds but from my experience none is safe, my only observation was that when i used large stakes my winning ratio became high, sometimes i could win 15 times in a row, and i played similar odds of which by the 15 time i must have already won past my stake and started making profit, if you lose one bet out of 15 you will still be in profit, especially since there is room for cash out while using large stakes, so i feel that i prefer using large stakes on small odds and be gradually accumulating my profits rather than accumulating multiple odds and end up losing.

There is something i want to get right here, because small odds and big odds can be seen in different ways and i don't know the particular one you are actually one prefer staking on, for example, an odds can be see as a big odds by staking just one match, and a small odds can be seen in a multiple betting, so let me just assume this for a clear understanding, let me say 3.80 odds allocated to a particular teams  and 1.34 can also allocated to a different matches, so in this different illustration that i gave shown that, for you to stake on small odds with a big amount of money, is either you stake on only one match that has 1.34  or you have to accumulate those small odds like 3 or 10 games to be in a safer side, or look for just one 2.39 to 3.00 and stake big than multiple betting, because i think  where most gamblers has problems of winning, staking on so much multiples games.

[Asuspawer09]

I mean, that is just how things work on the Polymarket. If someone could take advantage of that, then he is good at it, It doesn't mean that it is a get-rich thing, since it is not a 100% win rate you could still lose at any moment, it is possible to win consistently, but surely you might lose along the way. The 99% win rate could easily change in just a few losses.

I'll probably just do the same if I just want to gamble on the safe side, I mean waiting for the right timing for a higher chance of bet and then putting a little bit of huge money on that, but on casual gamble you want to stay consistent on this safe  bets.

[Barikui1]

Quite an interesting strategy that works best for the person in the position, while everyone is doubting, honestly I do believe when many claim a high winning rate I mean why will anyone lie with such matter?

Are you being serious with this statement of yours?
Because if you are being serious, then it's obvious that you do not know how traders behaves, because they tend to inflate their winnings just to make them feel better and to portray them as a genius in the eyes of many, so girl, almost all traders are liars especially when it comes to how successful they have been, since they hate being seen as a fail trader.

The reason why this strategy is not commonly used, basically people go for high chance though using this strategy can’t determine a frequent win as many tried same pattern, this strategy can’t be the only strategy use in achieving a 100% win as claimed.

It's true that the strategy can really be productive, since the winning chances are extremely high, but why I will not believe such claims of 100% victories is that you can use a single bad trade or bad day of trading to lose almost everything you have made in a week or month, so even though his claims may be true, but I do not believe such claims because I am a trader that knows that even the best traders loses some trade, no matter how skilled you are in trading.

[Bigjoe33]

What he did was the same as choosing odds between @1,01 & @1,05 in sports betting, given that high probability, it's entirely possible for him to have such an insane win rate. However, that doesn't apply to me, because for me, gambling is an entertainment & challenge. In fact, even the lowest odds I have ever taken were no less than @1,20. That means 80% winning chance.

Going for those small odds for me just looks like playing and a total waste of time, because at the end, you might win, but what becomes your profit, almost nothing. Sometimes, due to the low odds, you are forced to stake very high to ta least get something out of it, yet, if you encounter any loss, you know what happens right?

You may keep winning, but a single lose takes away your one month winning profit. So it's totally non profitable to me. I always prefer the panic, big odds and watching taking those risk. It gambling we know. If you win, you win. And if you lose, you take the pain and fun. Lol

[DrBeer]

But there are a lot of nuances. First, there's the size of the winnings. They're negligible. Second, as everyone says - with such an "edge," a single loss wipes out 20 wins.
Honestly, with that kind of success, you might as well make money trading USDT, with its regular fluctuations of one-hundredth of a dollar

It's one of the reasons why winning much has to do with higher stakes too, from what OP said, that targeting prediction with $0.95-0.99 is way too small. This needs to be staked with high sum to get good profits and I'm just wondering how much the guy with the strategy is using, maybe he might be a whale.

The thing is, even with a fairly successful approach, this "grind" eventually leads to a point where a person starts wanting a substantial win rather than just a dollar a month, places large bets, and at that moment, their entire "foolproof model" collapses, leaving them with nothing but a huge waste of time. You can only get a bigger payout by betting much more and taking on much greater risk!

[bitLeap]

Such a method of making small profits can be applied in sports betting if the gambler is really not ambitious. But it is not easy to handle such gains in every momentum. No wonder that out of 100 predictions he only lost 1x. I may need to give it a try but that guy's method for me beneficially doesn't really provide satisfaction.

[DrBeer]

"The perfect model"
But there are a lot of nuances. First, there's the size of the winnings. They're negligible. Second, as everyone says - with such an "edge," a single loss wipes out 20 wins.
Honestly, with that kind of success, you might as well make money trading USDT, with its regular fluctuations of one-hundredth of a dollar

Whenever I see someone claiming there’s a 100% guaranteed way to make money, I can’t help but laugh. It’s amusing how willing people are to believe just about anything especially when they convince themselves that a particular method is their ticket to getting rich. The truth is, you simply need to think critically this is especially important for newcomers with no prior experience and learn from the mistakes of others. While such a guaranteed method might theoretically exist, I have no interest in any betting strategy where a single loss could wipe out all previous winnings; as it stands, it just seems like a complete waste of time.

The only 100% effective way to make money is... to sell the "100% surefire way to make money" to those who believe in such fairy tales - and, let's face it, there are a lot of them out there
But people tend to believe in miracles - ways to make money easily and quickly, without putting in any effort or thinking. I always tell people who act this way, "Thinking doesn't hurt - don't be afraid to take advantage of this opportunity."

[Elainebue]

99% sounds insane until you realize how much one bad trade can wipe out, buying at 99 cents leaves almost no room for error. even on vega.bet there's no such thing as a guaranteed streak

[Fivestar4everMVP]

This should serve as a real-world example to shift how many people perceive luck, or perhaps it suggests that prediction markets are no longer a matter of luck, as gambling is. Even insider trading is limited to specific types of predictions; for instance, someone might consistently win only when it comes to political topics. So, here is the strategy (would you believe it?):

After 2 years of trading on Polymarket, this guy still doesn't know what a loss feels like
His win rate is 99%
That means he loses just 1 out of every 100 trades

--snip--

His strategy is ridiculously simple
He buys almost certain outcomes at $0.95-0.99 and waits for them to settle at $1
While everyone else is chasing 100x, he's quietly printing money on the most obvious outcomes

Most activities on prediction market cant be likened or regarded as gambling because there is a clear distinction, being accurate or close in predicting outcomes is a lot more easier than trying to beat a casino's algorithm while playing a slot game, this is putting aside the fact that some of this games have been programmed to not give out winnings at certain times and the players cant tell when such times is or are.

I know this because during the time of telegram mini app games, there was this project that was going to launch a prediction market, so they first launched the platform on telegram as a test, I tried my best to participate in all the predictions that was posted and out of 146 that I participated in, I only got 8 predictions wrong, the rest was correctly predicted, I remember having around 98% in win rate on that platform and i often imagined if money was involved, how much i would have been making or made

[sompitonov]

Most activities on prediction market cant be likened or regarded as gambling because there is a clear distinction, being accurate or close in predicting outcomes is a lot more easier than trying to beat a casino's algorithm while playing a slot game, this is putting aside the fact that some of this games have been programmed to not give out winnings at certain times and the players cant tell when such times is or are.

I know this because during the time of telegram mini app games, there was this project that was going to launch a prediction market, so they first launched the platform on telegram as a test, I tried my best to participate in all the predictions that was posted and out of 146 that I participated in, I only got 8 predictions wrong, the rest was correctly predicted, I remember having around 98% in win rate on that platform and i often imagined if money was involved, how much i would have been making or made

While your result was certainly striking, one cannot rule out the possibility that the sample size was too small meaning luck could have played a significant role and it is by no means certain that you could replicate such a performance. Of course, this cannot be verified, but it is clear that had real money been at stake, you would have stood to win a substantial amount. At the same time, there is another factor: because you weren’t under the pressure of real money, you were able to make decisions calmly. Had that pressure been present perhaps following previous wins you might have become more fearful of losing, which could, in turn, have led to poor decision-making and subsequent losses.

[mak013]

While your result was certainly striking, one cannot rule out the possibility that the sample size was too small meaning luck could have played a significant role and it is by no means certain that you could replicate such a performance. Of course, this cannot be verified, but it is clear that had real money been at stake, you would have stood to win a substantial amount. At the same time, there is another factor: because you weren’t under the pressure of real money, you were able to make decisions calmly. Had that pressure been present perhaps following previous wins you might have become more fearful of losing, which could, in turn, have led to poor decision-making and subsequent losses.

With real money, you've got to put down really big bets just to feel any profit. And I remember a thread about someone losing over a million dollars at odds around 1.07. How many wins does it take to make back the money from one loss?
Do you even have the bankroll for several big bets at once, or will one losing bet wipe you out?
With your brain and AI, you can find much better odds and basically a guaranteed win - as close as you can get in gambling. Betting at odds like that sounds like a strategy, but honestly it's just a waste of time.

[Lontor]

Not for everyone, 😭😞😞😭

This is for people who are in power, influencers or politicians.
They move information around like it's nothing.

Prediction market is politicians casinos where winning is almost certain.
They have the power to even make things happen like what the hell did I know?

So yes I am with you on this one OP, prediction markets fits perfectly well for powerful people and organisations.

[perfect999]

This is for people who are in power, influencers or politicians.
They move information around like it's nothing.

Prediction market is politicians casinos where winning is almost certain.
They have the power to even make things happen like what the hell did I know?

So yes I am with you on this one OP, prediction markets fits perfectly well for powerful people and organisations.

With insider information, you can manipulate everywhere and for this, you do not need to be in power. When you manage to get information for money or for friendship or by any means, you can easily win any bet and if you mean these as power then I agree with you. Politicians and businessmen are real powerful in most countries and they easily manipulate prediction market in their favour where retail gamblers are the real baits to input for making the big rewards for those politicians and corporates.

The same happening in futures and commodity market as well. Recent gold and silver's rallies are very simple example for that. Powerful people and organisations are easily manipulating for pump and dump and small investors do lose in-between. This proves that gambling and derivative markets are same for one more time.