A 100% win rate is nearly a reality in prediction markets

[Tungbulu]

Not for everyone, 😭😞😞😭

This is for people who are in power, influencers or politicians.
They move information around like it's nothing.

Prediction market is politicians casinos where winning is almost certain.
They have the power to even make things happen like what the hell did I know?

So yes I am with you on this one OP, prediction markets fits perfectly well for powerful people and organisations.

Some people are actually restricted from either trading/betting on the prediction market, or just betting on some specific markets, especially those areas that such player could potentially have access to insider information. For example, politicians cannot bet on any market that is associated with politics because they’ll definitely have have/gain access to insider information, so I don’t think politicians or whatsoever would have an edge when it comes to the prediction market.

[Awaklara]

Some people are actually restricted from either trading/betting on the prediction market, or just betting on some specific markets, especially those areas that such player could potentially have access to insider information. For example, politicians cannot bet on any market that is associated with politics because they’ll definitely have have/gain access to insider information, so I don’t think politicians or whatsoever would have an edge when it comes to the prediction market.

What if bets are placed using the accounts of family members or trusted individuals? The politician's own account would certainly be monitored, but what about the people in their circle who might not be under the scrutiny of any party?
Family accounts can still be monitored if there is a possibility of abuse of interests. However, if a politician wants to do it, I think they would not be foolish enough. To be honest, I am not particularly fond of betting on political issues.

[Derekfunds]

Op, what made you believe luck is not a factor that determines win in gambling, the fact that someone is picking little odds to get a while number and it's favoring the person doesn't mean he's an expert or rock star, I am not saying he is not good but it takes luck for our prediction to work or align and I don't believe luck is after prediction no! It's during prediction and I wonder how much the person is winning from this odd and trust me one lose if he uses huge amount will take over 50 percent of what he's won so far because the reward ratio is insane.

[Bluedrem]

This is an effective method but I doubt that everyone can do it like him. I also doubt that when the creditor sees that the money is increasing for each purchase against his prediction, he will be able to sell it and get out of the market. People are naturally a bit greedy and in both the prediction market and gambling, when a person is overly greedy, he will face losses. Like the person in the prediction market, I was also making predictions with the same strategy for several days but in the end I could not stick to my strategy.
However, if someone is experienced in predicting a particular subject, he can increase the number of wins even if he does not win consistently.

[Swordsoffreedom]

would you believe it?

https://predictdesks.com/blog/research/polymarket-top-traders

Look at this Polymarket trader analysis published two days ago. you'll get that 74% of 10050 randomly sampled active wallet were at loss over their lifetime.
That mean while there are some exceptional traders here, it is not easy for majority to earn consistent profit.
I am not saying that buying near certain outcome is any bad strategy.
If he possesses any better probability estimate than market and his execution cost are low then it will be profitable.
However it would be mistake to consider someone successful trader or to blindly copy their strategy just because they have 99% win rate.

[Yorubek]

Op, what made you believe luck is not a factor that determines win in gambling, the fact that someone is picking little odds to get a while number and it's favoring the person doesn't mean he's an expert or rock star, I am not saying he is not good but it takes luck for our prediction to work or align and I don't believe luck is after prediction no! It's during prediction and I wonder how much the person is winning from this odd and trust me one lose if he uses huge amount will take over 50 percent of what he's won so far because the reward ratio is insane.

Yes, the way the man is surviving in the prediction market using his strategy and making money is not naturally possible for everyone. It is never possible for everyone to achieve success through gambling because it depends on luck and luck does not help everyone, there are very few people who have been able to achieve success through gambling because they had good luck. However, it is true that gambling with small amounts of money is good because it makes it easier to accept whatever the result is, you can keep yourself calm, take your time, and protect yourself from big losses.

[NanLomarig]

This should serve as a real-world example to shift how many people perceive luck, or perhaps it suggests that prediction markets are no longer a matter of luck, as gambling is. Even insider trading is limited to specific types of predictions; for instance, someone might consistently win only when it comes to political topics. So, here is the strategy (would you believe it?):

After 2 years of trading on Polymarket, this guy still doesn't know what a loss feels like
His win rate is 99%
That means he loses just 1 out of every 100 trades

--snip--

His strategy is ridiculously simple
He buys almost certain outcomes at $0.95-0.99 and waits for them to settle at $1
While everyone else is chasing 100x, he's quietly printing money on the most obvious outcomes

Source

To me it looks less like printing money and more like selling insurance on the obvious outcomes. He collects a small premium on each trade and it works great until the one rare event that pays out everything he made.

I think his goal isn't profit but a nice looking stat.

[Hispo]

would you believe it?

https://predictdesks.com/blog/research/polymarket-top-traders

Look at this Polymarket trader analysis published two days ago. you'll get that 74% of 10050 randomly sampled active wallet were at loss over their lifetime.
That mean while there are some exceptional traders here, it is not easy for majority to earn consistent profit.
I am not saying that buying near certain outcome is any bad strategy.
If he possesses any better probability estimate than market and his execution cost are low then it will be profitable.
However it would be mistake to consider someone successful trader or to blindly copy their strategy just because they have 99% win rate.

74% is a quite high number, but considering we are talking about betting on "unpredictable" outcomes, then I would have expected that percentage of loser Polymarket users to have been higher than 74%.

If I am not wrong, it is quite close to the percentage of traders who end up losing money on exchanges like Coinbase and Binance, so partaking in prediction markets could be equivalent to speculating on Bitcoin and Ethereum price.

Though, I assume the majority of those polymarket users screening to make this study did not actually have access to AI tools and API to try to get consistency with 99% chance positions.

[el che]

I get why people get hyped seeing a 99% win rate but to me buying at $0.98 or $0.99 is just not worth it, the math is stacked against you, I mean when you make a 1% return per trade, a single loss wipes out 100 successful trades. If there were genuine "free money" 99 cent yields floating around, high frequency bots and market makers using APIs would snatch them in milliseconds. That 74% failure rate across Polymarket wallets exists for a reason. Copying these high win rate accounts without understanding position sizing or tail risk isn't a strategy.

[Cointxz]

I get why people get hyped seeing a 99% win rate but to me buying at $0.98 or $0.99 is just not worth it, the math is stacked against you, I mean when you make a 1% return per trade, a single loss wipes out 100 successful trades. If there were genuine "free money" 99 cent yields floating around, high frequency bots and market makers using APIs would snatch them in milliseconds. That 74% failure rate across Polymarket wallets exists for a reason. Copying these high win rate accounts without understanding position sizing or tail risk isn't a strategy.

Yeah right, Real gamblers will agree with you mate. People nowadays especially on social media look on the winning percentage as “success” without considering the total PnL for those bunch of bets.

I saw someone betting million dollar on an odds of 1.01 that still lose. I can’t imagine same guy doing this strategy and lose immediately below 100 try or experiencing 2 losing streak after 100th successful bet. 

This is the reference thread on the story shared by @bitbollo. Gambler Loses 1.4 million USD in a bet with lower than 1.01 odds!

[bitbollo]

...
I saw someone betting million dollar on an odds of 1.01 that still lose.
...

Likewise for the guys that comes from "horse racing" - (febbre da cavallo the italian movie give a glimpse on this).
The only "safe" bet, is an oxymoron for the real gambler.  It would be an event already concluded hence you can't gamble on it (1.00).
No one would gamble in a 1.00 game

Even with scalping, greening, ladderes tool bets and any possible "geek toys" or betting exposure you're always assuming the chance to losing money.
E.G. even if there is all possible advantages in a horse run, the frontrunner could always fall.  It happens many times.

[YellowSwap]

Op, what made you believe luck is not a factor that determines win in gambling, the fact that someone is picking little odds to get a while number and it's favoring the person doesn't mean he's an expert or rock star, I am not saying he is not good but it takes luck for our prediction to work or align and I don't believe luck is after prediction no! It's during prediction and I wonder how much the person is winning from this odd and trust me one lose if he uses huge amount will take over 50 percent of what he's won so far because the reward ratio is insane.

Do you read the original post at all? It's about the prediction markets not odds from sports or gambling, it's a different brutal ground in prediction markets.

That luck side is only for people like you and I because we don't have anyone as an insider who can give us accurate information about real life event that's about to take place.

This iss something that's now very common in America and I guess that's why the American people aren't happy that prediction markets is getting some people very rich and not normal people like them, the game is full of manipulation.

[Yamifoud]

A 100% winning rate is not about luck but rather about exposing how good you are at reading the news.

But I think this. If all gamblers win, could we expect someone to do business like this? I see it becoming a trend these days, but I'm wondering how it will affect the gambling industry in the future. Because if we believe that the prediction market gives us the benefits we expect, then everyone is shifting here.

[Outhue]

It's not that simple, there are many people who have lost money on prediction markets and what you are trying to say doesn't mean it's happening to everyone, it's only insiders that can be on the safest side when it comes to prediction market, they have their sources for legit information and this is what happens when insiders get involved with politics and those institutions.

[Futurexxx]

It's not that simple, there are many people who have lost money on prediction markets and what you are trying to say doesn't mean it's happening to everyone, it's only insiders that can be on the safest side when it comes to prediction market, they have their sources for legit information and this is what happens when insiders get involved with politics and those institutions.

Even as an insider, you cannot be 99% accurate in your predictions because so many things unfold in the market that may go beyond your control, so you cannot manage all the situation properly, all the time, that's why I feels like the 99% accuracy is inaccurate.

Traders are used to the harbit of inflating their success, and be making it look like they are extremely successful, while in reality it is the opposite, so I do not believe that a prediction market trader is 99% accurate no matter who you are.

[Somegory]

A 100% winning rate is not about luck but rather about exposing how good you are at reading the news.

But I think this. If all gamblers win, could we expect someone to do business like this? I see it becoming a trend these days, but I'm wondering how it will affect the gambling industry in the future. Because if we believe that the prediction market gives us the benefits we expect, then everyone is shifting here.

There is no "been good at trading the news " here, especially when its all happening on prediction market platforms, the only way it makes sense is someone is leaking information to gamblers who are using prediction markets.

Not just anyone somebody but those in power or those who are related to people in power, it's why prediction markets will never be free from manipulation.

It's impossible to have a 100% win rate on prediction markets and I think this is even a clue to why some accounts need to be investigated, if you are having 100% win rate it's because you knew something that others don't.

[angrybirdy]

A 100% winning rate is not about luck but rather about exposing how good you are at reading the news.

But I think this. If all gamblers win, could we expect someone to do business like this? I see it becoming a trend these days, but I'm wondering how it will affect the gambling industry in the future. Because if we believe that the prediction market gives us the benefits we expect, then everyone is shifting here.

Well, this is true. A winning rate cannot be associated with luck alone. so lets assume that luck indeed has something to do with it. However, gambling must also involve an analysis that is correct and a good understanding of winning the game... when it comes to your views, i do believe that business owners and specifically casino and gambling house owners will never accept making nothing as time passes by. there is a very high chance that they will try to ensure that not all players win each day because any business owner knows that they will not allow theirselves to incur losses... prediction markets will benefit both the players and casino owners. Once the prediction of the result is made, the necessary strategies for winning can then be formulated at once. It simply becomes a competition of who has the better strategy to formulate among the players and casino owners.

[5W-KILO]

Not for everyone, 😭😞😞😭

This is for people who are in power, influencers or politicians.
They move information around like it's nothing.

Prediction market is politicians casinos where winning is almost certain.
They have the power to even make things happen like what the hell did I know?

So yes I am with you on this one OP, prediction markets fits perfectly well for powerful people and organisations.

Some people are actually restricted from either trading/betting on the prediction market, or just betting on some specific markets, especially those areas that such player could potentially have access to insider information. For example, politicians cannot bet on any market that is associated with politics because they’ll definitely have have/gain access to insider information, so I don’t think politicians or whatsoever would have an edge when it comes to the prediction market.

Really? I don't think so because there is always a family member who isn't using the family name, the blacksheep of the family maybe or someone who just decided to change their names? It's very common in my country.

Imagine been related to Trump and not using the surname, no one will believe that I am related to Trump right? That's the key right there, there is no restrictions that can restrict any politicians.

We only get to know a politician secret once they lose power or once another politician goes against them, a nobody won't last a year choosing a politician as his or her enemy.

[Crypto Library]

Well, this is true. A winning rate cannot be associated with luck alone. so lets assume that luck indeed has something to do with it. However, gambling must also involve an analysis that is correct and a good understanding of winning the game... when it comes to your views, i do believe that business owners and specifically casino and gambling house owners will never accept making nothing as time passes by. there is a very high chance that they will try to ensure that not all players win each day because any business owner knows that they will not allow theirselves to incur losses... prediction markets will benefit both the players and casino owners. Once the prediction of the result is made, the necessary strategies for winning can then be formulated at once. It simply becomes a competition of who has the better strategy to formulate among the players and casino owners.

In case of the slot games or any other games in casino I would definitely say 99% depends on luck, but if we talk about sports betting or prediction markets, then maybe 90% depends on luck, and another 10% may depend on your analysis or knowledge but most of it depends on luck. Although I have expressed my personal opinion here, it is also proven in real life. I am very surprised that where did Sharky6999 get this 99% winning ratio from this account and how is it possible because in betting, taking 35k+ bets and winning 99% of them is a kind of miracle.

Anyway, I will tell everyone that no one should become overconfident after seeing this miracle and shouldn't bet even on low odds beyond their ability to lose.

[Smartprofit]

A 100% winning rate is not about luck but rather about exposing how good you are at reading the news.

But I think this. If all gamblers win, could we expect someone to do business like this? I see it becoming a trend these days, but I'm wondering how it will affect the gambling industry in the future. Because if we believe that the prediction market gives us the benefits we expect, then everyone is shifting here.

There is no "been good at trading the news " here, especially when its all happening on prediction market platforms, the only way it makes sense is someone is leaking information to gamblers who are using prediction markets.

Not just anyone somebody but those in power or those who are related to people in power, it's why prediction markets will never be free from manipulation.

It's impossible to have a 100% win rate on prediction markets and I think this is even a clue to why some accounts need to be investigated, if you are having 100% win rate it's because you knew something that others don't.

Yes, I agree that playing for a long period with a 100% success rate might raise eyebrows (and suspicions) in an outside observer. 🙋

On the other hand, betting on prediction markets isn't classic gambling. It's not roulette or slots. I wouldn't even compare it to poker.

If someone bets on prediction platforms and competes with other players, they're likely confident they have a competitive advantage. This isn't necessarily pure insider knowledge. Perhaps this person has incredible analytical skills and is a Nobel Prize winner in mathematics. Perhaps they studied at the same university as Sam Altman himself!

The situation, I think, is complicated by the fact that prediction platforms are essentially oracles of truth. Those in power want ordinary people to be completely transparent and have no secrets.  At the same time, those in power themselves want to remain in the shadows and weave a curtain of this shadow out of deception, lies, secrets, and mysteries. Prediction platforms effectively tear the curtain of this shadow. Those in power don't like this at all, but I'm at least neutral about it. I don't really like the world that today's powers that be are creating. 🧑‍💻